{ "date": "2026-04-16", "generated_at": "2026-04-16T06:41:57.419992", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-04-16", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 147, "matched_count": 147, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 147, "matched_rows": 147, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 77, "under_recommendation_count": 3, "strong_count": 9, "play_count": 24, "lean_count": 47, "no_play_count": 67, "average_edge_over": 0.0244, "average_edge_under": -0.0621, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 147, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_id": 670770, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -925, "expected_home_runs": 0.2631, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2313, "model_over_probability": 0.2313, "model_under_probability": 0.7687, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9024, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.128, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.872, "edge_over": 0.0988, "edge_under": -0.1337, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0988, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9517, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.46, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.51, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.85, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.211, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1868, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0694, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1218, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1974, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1714, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0107, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0785, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0543, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.002, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0649, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0389, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0689, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 1, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 51.4, "value_rank": 1, "value_box_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_id": 670770, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -985, "expected_home_runs": 0.2631, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2313, "model_over_probability": 0.2313, "model_under_probability": 0.7687, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1274, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8726, "edge_over": 0.0988, "edge_under": -0.1391, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0988, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9517, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.46, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.51, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.85, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.211, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1868, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0694, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1218, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1974, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1714, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0107, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0785, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0543, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.002, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0649, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0389, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0689, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 51.4, "value_rank": 2, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_id": 670770, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2631, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2313, "model_over_probability": 0.2313, "model_under_probability": 0.7687, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.098, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.098, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9517, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.46, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.51, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.85, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.211, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1868, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0694, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1218, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1974, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1714, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0115, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0777, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0535, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1328, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0012, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0641, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0458, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0381, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0689, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": 51.0, "value_rank": 3, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -760, "expected_home_runs": 0.2769, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2419, "model_over_probability": 0.2419, "model_under_probability": 0.7581, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8837, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1502, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8498, "edge_over": 0.0857, "edge_under": -0.1256, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0857, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.78, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.94, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2805, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2647, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0955, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2258, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2548, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2261, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0696, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1243, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1085, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1555, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0387, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0986, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1035, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0699, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0648, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1943, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.189, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0948, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 4, "value_score": 49.6, "value_rank": 4, "value_box_rank": 2, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2769, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2419, "model_over_probability": 0.2419, "model_under_probability": 0.7581, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0844, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0844, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.78, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.94, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2805, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2647, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0955, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2258, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2548, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2261, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0683, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.123, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1072, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1568, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0374, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0973, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1022, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0686, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0648, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1943, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.189, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0948, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 5, "edge_direction_rank": 5, "value_score": 49.5, "value_rank": 5, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -710, "expected_home_runs": 0.2769, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2419, "model_over_probability": 0.2419, "model_under_probability": 0.7581, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8765, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8467, "edge_over": 0.0832, "edge_under": -0.1184, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0832, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.78, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.94, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2805, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2647, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0955, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2258, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2548, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2261, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0671, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1218, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.106, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.158, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0363, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0961, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.101, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0674, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0648, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1943, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.189, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0948, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 6, "edge_direction_rank": 6, "value_score": 49.4, "value_rank": 6, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "hitter_id": 668715, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": -880, "expected_home_runs": 0.2399, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2133, "model_over_probability": 0.2133, "model_under_probability": 0.7867, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.898, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1364, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8636, "edge_over": 0.0715, "edge_under": -0.1113, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0715, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.92, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.15, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 20.06, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.46, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.73, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2139, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1875, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.07, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1206, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2079, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1805, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0212, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0721, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0457, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1412, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0073, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0661, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0373, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0387, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0845, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0694, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 8, "edge_direction_rank": 7, "value_score": 34.3, "value_rank": 7, "value_box_rank": 3, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "hitter_id": 668715, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": -825, "expected_home_runs": 0.2399, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2133, "model_over_probability": 0.2133, "model_under_probability": 0.7867, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8919, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1381, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8619, "edge_over": 0.0704, "edge_under": -0.1052, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0704, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.92, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.15, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 20.06, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.46, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.73, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2139, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1875, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.07, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1206, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2079, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1805, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0223, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.071, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0446, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1423, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0084, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.065, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0362, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0376, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0845, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0694, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 9, "edge_direction_rank": 8, "value_score": 33.8, "value_rank": 8, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "hitter_id": 668715, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2399, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2133, "model_over_probability": 0.2133, "model_under_probability": 0.7867, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0704, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0704, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.92, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.15, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 20.06, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.46, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.73, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2139, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1875, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.07, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1206, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2079, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1805, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0223, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.071, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0446, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1423, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0084, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.065, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0362, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0376, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0845, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0694, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 10, "edge_direction_rank": 9, "value_score": 33.8, "value_rank": 9, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": -970, "expected_home_runs": 0.2244, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.201, "model_over_probability": 0.201, "model_under_probability": 0.799, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9065, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8718, "edge_over": 0.0677, "edge_under": -0.1075, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0677, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8666, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.9, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 6.23, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.67, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1247, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1174, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0859, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0425, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1084, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1161, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1125, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0249, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0086, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0159, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1327, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0474, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0172, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.019, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0208, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0284, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0853, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0419, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 45, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 11, "edge_direction_rank": 10, "value_score": 30.1, "value_rank": 10, "value_box_rank": 4, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 645, "under_odds": -910, "expected_home_runs": 0.2244, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.201, "model_over_probability": 0.201, "model_under_probability": 0.799, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.901, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1296, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8704, "edge_over": 0.0668, "edge_under": -0.102, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0668, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8666, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.9, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 6.23, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.67, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1247, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1174, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0859, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0425, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1084, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1161, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1125, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0258, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0095, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0168, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1335, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0483, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0181, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0199, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0217, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0284, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0853, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0419, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 45, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 12, "edge_direction_rank": 11, "value_score": 29.7, "value_rank": 11, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 645, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2244, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.201, "model_over_probability": 0.201, "model_under_probability": 0.799, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0668, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0668, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8666, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 8.9, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 6.23, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.67, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1247, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1174, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0859, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0425, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1084, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1161, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1125, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0258, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0095, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0168, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1335, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0483, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0181, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0199, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0217, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0284, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0853, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0419, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 45, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 13, "edge_direction_rank": 12, "value_score": 29.7, "value_rank": 12, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brendan Donovan", "hitter_id": 680977, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 890, "under_odds": -1410, "expected_home_runs": 0.1813, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1658, "model_over_probability": 0.1658, "model_under_probability": 0.8342, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.101, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9338, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0976, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9024, "edge_over": 0.0648, "edge_under": -0.0996, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0648, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9449, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.159, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.73, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.63, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.3, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1873, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1645, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1181, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0613, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0834, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1777, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1552, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0176, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0863, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0635, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1007, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0171, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0767, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0563, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0542, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0393, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1178, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1517, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.061, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 14, "edge_direction_rank": 13, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "hitter_id": 663886, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 685, "under_odds": -980, "expected_home_runs": 0.2129, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1918, "model_over_probability": 0.1918, "model_under_probability": 0.8082, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9074, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1231, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8769, "edge_over": 0.0644, "edge_under": -0.0992, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0644, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.797, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.62, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.17, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.33, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1344, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1631, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.053, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0927, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1836, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1599, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0347, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.007, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0357, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1269, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0018, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0562, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0447, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0325, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1287, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.322, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0525, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 15, "edge_direction_rank": 14, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "hitter_id": 663886, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": -1040, "expected_home_runs": 0.2129, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1918, "model_over_probability": 0.1918, "model_under_probability": 0.8082, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9123, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1232, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8768, "edge_over": 0.0636, "edge_under": -0.1041, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0636, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.797, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.62, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.17, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.33, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1344, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1631, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.053, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0927, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1836, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1599, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0355, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0062, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0349, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1277, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.001, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0554, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0439, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0317, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1287, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.322, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0525, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 16, "edge_direction_rank": 15, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "hitter_id": 663886, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2129, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1918, "model_over_probability": 0.1918, "model_under_probability": 0.8082, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0636, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0636, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.797, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.62, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.17, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.33, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1344, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1631, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.053, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0927, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1836, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1599, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0355, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0062, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0349, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1277, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.001, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0554, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0439, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0317, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1287, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.322, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0525, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 17, "edge_direction_rank": 16, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brendan Donovan", "hitter_id": 680977, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 875, "under_odds": -1495, "expected_home_runs": 0.1813, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1658, "model_over_probability": 0.1658, "model_under_probability": 0.8342, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1026, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9373, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0987, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9013, "edge_over": 0.0632, "edge_under": -0.1031, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0632, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9449, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.159, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.73, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.63, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.3, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1873, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1645, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1181, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0613, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0834, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1777, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1552, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0192, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0847, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0619, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1023, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0155, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0751, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0547, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0526, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0393, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1178, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1517, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.061, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 18, "edge_direction_rank": 17, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brendan Donovan", "hitter_id": 680977, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 875, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1813, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1658, "model_over_probability": 0.1658, "model_under_probability": 0.8342, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1026, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0632, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0632, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9449, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.159, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.73, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.63, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.3, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1873, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1645, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1181, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0613, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0834, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1777, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1552, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0192, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0847, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0619, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1023, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0155, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0751, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0547, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0526, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0393, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1178, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1517, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.061, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 19, "edge_direction_rank": 18, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "hitter_id": 682177, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 810, "under_odds": -1230, "expected_home_runs": 0.1861, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1698, "model_over_probability": 0.1698, "model_under_probability": 0.8302, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1099, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9248, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1062, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8938, "edge_over": 0.0599, "edge_under": -0.0946, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0599, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.118, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 5.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.82, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.89, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.133, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1105, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0776, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0423, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0995, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.097, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1015, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0104, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0231, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0006, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0323, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0129, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0065, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0084, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0258, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0773, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.452, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.042, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 20, "edge_direction_rank": 19, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "hitter_id": 682177, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 800, "under_odds": -1305, "expected_home_runs": 0.1861, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1698, "model_over_probability": 0.1698, "model_under_probability": 0.8302, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1111, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9288, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1068, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8932, "edge_over": 0.0587, "edge_under": -0.0986, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0587, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.118, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 5.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.82, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.89, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.133, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1105, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0776, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0423, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0995, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.097, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1015, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0116, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0219, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0006, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0335, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0141, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0077, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0096, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0258, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0773, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.452, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.042, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 21, "edge_direction_rank": 20, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "hitter_id": 682177, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 800, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1861, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1698, "model_over_probability": 0.1698, "model_under_probability": 0.8302, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1111, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0587, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0587, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.118, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 5.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 7.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.82, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.89, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.133, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1105, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0776, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0423, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0995, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.097, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1015, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0116, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0219, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0006, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0335, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0141, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0077, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0096, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0258, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0773, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.452, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.042, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 22, "edge_direction_rank": 21, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "hitter_id": 694671, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 545, "under_odds": -775, "expected_home_runs": 0.2371, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2111, "model_over_probability": 0.2111, "model_under_probability": 0.7889, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8857, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1489, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8511, "edge_over": 0.0561, "edge_under": -0.0968, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0561, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9733, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.64, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.37, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.83, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.08, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2093, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1864, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0691, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1644, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2149, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1869, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0094, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0543, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0314, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1545, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0205, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0599, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0241, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0319, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0461, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0686, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 24, "edge_direction_rank": 22, "value_score": 28.5, "value_rank": 13, "value_box_rank": 5, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan India", "hitter_id": 663697, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 920, "under_odds": -1485, "expected_home_runs": 0.1662, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1531, "model_over_probability": 0.1531, "model_under_probability": 0.8469, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9369, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0947, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9053, "edge_over": 0.0551, "edge_under": -0.09, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0551, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9202, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.92, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.37, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.154, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1385, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.051, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0782, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1255, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1183, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0198, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.056, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0405, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0977, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0023, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0275, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0356, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0203, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1992, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0507, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 25, "edge_direction_rank": 23, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "hitter_id": 694671, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -725, "expected_home_runs": 0.2371, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2111, "model_over_probability": 0.2111, "model_under_probability": 0.7889, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8788, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1509, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8491, "edge_over": 0.0549, "edge_under": -0.0899, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0549, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9733, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.64, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.37, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.83, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.08, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2093, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1864, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0691, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1644, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2149, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1869, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0082, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0531, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0302, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1557, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0217, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0587, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0307, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0461, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0686, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 26, "edge_direction_rank": 24, "value_score": 28.4, "value_rank": 14, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "hitter_id": 694671, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2371, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2111, "model_over_probability": 0.2111, "model_under_probability": 0.7889, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0549, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0549, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9733, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.64, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.37, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.83, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.08, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2093, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1864, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0691, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1644, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2149, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1869, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0082, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0531, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0302, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1557, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0217, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0587, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0307, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0461, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0686, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 27, "edge_direction_rank": 25, "value_score": 28.4, "value_rank": 15, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan India", "hitter_id": 663697, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 905, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1662, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1531, "model_over_probability": 0.1531, "model_under_probability": 0.8469, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0995, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0536, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0536, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9202, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.92, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.37, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.154, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1385, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.051, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0782, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1255, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1183, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0213, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0545, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.039, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0992, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0008, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.026, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0341, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0188, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1992, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0507, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 28, "edge_direction_rank": 26, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan India", "hitter_id": 663697, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 900, "under_odds": -1570, "expected_home_runs": 0.1662, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1531, "model_over_probability": 0.1531, "model_under_probability": 0.8469, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9401, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0961, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9039, "edge_over": 0.0531, "edge_under": -0.0932, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0531, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9202, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.92, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 5.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.37, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.154, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1385, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.051, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0782, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1255, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1183, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0218, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.054, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0385, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0997, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0003, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0255, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0336, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0183, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1992, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0507, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 29, "edge_direction_rank": 27, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "hitter_id": 630105, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 905, "under_odds": -1450, "expected_home_runs": 0.1606, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1484, "model_over_probability": 0.1484, "model_under_probability": 0.8516, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0995, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9355, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0961, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9039, "edge_over": 0.0489, "edge_under": -0.0839, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0489, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9469, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.113, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.74, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.92, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1368, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1345, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0476, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0643, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1256, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1183, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0352, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0373, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.035, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0991, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0008, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0261, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0341, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0188, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1646, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0473, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 30, "edge_direction_rank": 28, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 645, "under_odds": -905, "expected_home_runs": 0.2011, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1822, "model_over_probability": 0.1822, "model_under_probability": 0.8178, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9005, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1297, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8703, "edge_over": 0.048, "edge_under": -0.0827, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.048, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.151, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.875, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 18.49, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.64, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.03, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1866, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1765, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0634, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1168, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1822, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1587, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0174, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0524, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0423, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1338, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.048, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0379, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0245, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1288, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1622, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.063, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 31, "edge_direction_rank": 29, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 645, "under_odds": -960, "expected_home_runs": 0.2011, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1822, "model_over_probability": 0.1822, "model_under_probability": 0.8178, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9057, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1291, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8709, "edge_over": 0.048, "edge_under": -0.0879, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.048, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.151, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.875, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 18.49, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.64, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.03, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1866, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1765, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0634, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1168, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1822, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1587, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0174, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0524, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0423, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1338, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.048, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0379, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0245, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1288, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1622, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.063, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 32, "edge_direction_rank": 30, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "hitter_id": 630105, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 890, "under_odds": -1535, "expected_home_runs": 0.1606, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1484, "model_over_probability": 0.1484, "model_under_probability": 0.8516, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.101, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9388, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0971, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9029, "edge_over": 0.0474, "edge_under": -0.0872, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0474, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9469, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.113, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.74, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.92, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1368, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1345, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0476, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0643, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1256, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1183, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0367, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0358, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0335, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0007, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0246, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0326, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0173, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1646, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0473, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 33, "edge_direction_rank": 31, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "hitter_id": 630105, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 890, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1606, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1484, "model_over_probability": 0.1484, "model_under_probability": 0.8516, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.101, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0474, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0474, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9469, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.113, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.91, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.74, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.92, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1368, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1345, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0476, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0643, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1256, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1183, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0367, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0358, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0335, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0007, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0246, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0326, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0173, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1646, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0473, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 34, "edge_direction_rank": 32, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2011, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1822, "model_over_probability": 0.1822, "model_under_probability": 0.8178, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0471, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0471, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.151, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.875, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 18.49, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.64, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.03, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1866, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1765, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0634, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1168, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1822, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1587, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0183, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0515, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0414, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1347, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0059, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0471, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.037, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0236, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1288, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1622, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.063, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 35, "edge_direction_rank": 33, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "hitter_id": 673962, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 665, "under_odds": -945, "expected_home_runs": 0.191, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1739, "model_over_probability": 0.1739, "model_under_probability": 0.8261, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1307, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9043, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1263, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8737, "edge_over": 0.0432, "edge_under": -0.0782, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0432, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8882, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.68, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.92, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1504, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1536, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0536, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0841, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1719, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1507, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0466, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0197, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0229, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1302, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0143, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0412, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0243, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.02, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1159, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2236, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0532, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 36, "edge_direction_rank": 34, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "hitter_id": 673962, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 665, "under_odds": -1005, "expected_home_runs": 0.191, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1739, "model_over_probability": 0.1739, "model_under_probability": 0.8261, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1307, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9095, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1256, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8744, "edge_over": 0.0432, "edge_under": -0.0834, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0432, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8882, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.68, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.92, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1504, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1536, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0536, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0841, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1719, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1507, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0466, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0197, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0229, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1302, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0143, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0412, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0243, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.02, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1159, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2236, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0532, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 37, "edge_direction_rank": 35, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "hitter_id": 673962, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 665, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.191, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1739, "model_over_probability": 0.1739, "model_under_probability": 0.8261, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1307, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0432, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0432, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8882, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.68, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.92, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1504, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1536, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0536, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0841, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1719, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1507, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0466, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0197, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0229, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1302, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0143, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0412, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0243, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.02, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0386, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1159, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2236, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0532, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 38, "edge_direction_rank": 36, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "hitter_id": 657041, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": -955, "expected_home_runs": 0.189, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1722, "model_over_probability": 0.1722, "model_under_probability": 0.8278, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9052, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1255, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8745, "edge_over": 0.0423, "edge_under": -0.0774, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0423, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.812, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.04, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1685, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.142, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.054, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0393, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1316, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1221, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0906, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0386, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0121, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1295, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0296, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0017, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0037, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0078, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2771, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0536, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 39, "edge_direction_rank": 37, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "hitter_id": 657041, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": -1010, "expected_home_runs": 0.189, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1722, "model_over_probability": 0.1722, "model_under_probability": 0.8278, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9099, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1249, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8751, "edge_over": 0.0423, "edge_under": -0.0821, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0423, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.812, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.04, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1685, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.142, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.054, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0393, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1316, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1221, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0906, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0386, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0121, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1295, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0296, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0017, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0037, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0078, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2771, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0536, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 40, "edge_direction_rank": 38, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "hitter_id": 657041, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 665, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.189, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1722, "model_over_probability": 0.1722, "model_under_probability": 0.8278, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1307, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0415, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0415, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.812, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 1.04, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 2.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1685, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.142, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.054, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0393, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1316, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1221, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0914, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0378, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0113, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1303, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0304, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0009, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0029, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0086, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2771, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0536, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 41, "edge_direction_rank": 39, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "hitter_id": 701762, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 265, "under_odds": -320, "expected_home_runs": 0.2202, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1976, "model_over_probability": 0.1976, "model_under_probability": 0.8024, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2645, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7355, "edge_over": -0.0764, "edge_under": 0.0405, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0405, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.946, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.53, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.102, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.61, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.11, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.38, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.16, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1088, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1276, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1009, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0437, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.121, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.13, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1211, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.153, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1652, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1464, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.271, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1731, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.144, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1404, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1529, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0327, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.098, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4768, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0408, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 42, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "hitter_id": 668227, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 595, "under_odds": -865, "expected_home_runs": 0.2019, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1828, "model_over_probability": 0.1828, "model_under_probability": 0.8172, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1439, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8964, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1383, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8617, "edge_over": 0.0389, "edge_under": -0.0792, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0389, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9353, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.159, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.11, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 26.33, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.62, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.64, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.82, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2147, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1798, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.069, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1272, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1911, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.166, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0167, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0708, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0359, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1434, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0147, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0472, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0282, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0221, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1287, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1968, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0686, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 43, "edge_direction_rank": 40, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "hitter_id": 666310, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": -860, "expected_home_runs": 0.1957, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1777, "model_over_probability": 0.1777, "model_under_probability": 0.8223, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8958, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8658, "edge_over": 0.0388, "edge_under": -0.0735, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0388, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.118, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.8, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.21, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1803, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1746, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0622, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1358, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1876, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1631, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0031, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0414, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0357, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1384, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0097, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0487, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0332, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0242, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1287, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1285, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0617, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 44, "edge_direction_rank": 41, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "hitter_id": 666310, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": -915, "expected_home_runs": 0.1957, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1777, "model_over_probability": 0.1777, "model_under_probability": 0.8223, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9015, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8665, "edge_over": 0.0388, "edge_under": -0.0792, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0388, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.118, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.8, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.21, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1803, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1746, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0622, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1358, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1876, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1631, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0031, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0414, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0357, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1384, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0097, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0487, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0332, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0242, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1287, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1285, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0617, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 45, "edge_direction_rank": 42, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "hitter_id": 666310, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1957, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1777, "model_over_probability": 0.1777, "model_under_probability": 0.8223, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0388, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0388, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.118, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.8, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.21, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.93, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1803, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1746, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0622, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1358, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1876, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1631, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0031, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0414, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0357, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1384, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0097, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0487, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0332, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0242, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1287, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1285, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0617, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 46, "edge_direction_rank": 43, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "hitter_id": 701538, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -725, "expected_home_runs": 0.2225, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1995, "model_over_probability": 0.1995, "model_under_probability": 0.8005, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8788, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1551, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8449, "edge_over": 0.0382, "edge_under": -0.0783, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0382, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9543, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.113, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.85, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.49, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1397, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1354, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0483, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1251, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.118, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0458, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0216, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0259, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1607, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.061, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0362, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0277, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0433, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0998, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3995, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0478, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 47, "edge_direction_rank": 44, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "hitter_id": 668227, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 590, "under_odds": -810, "expected_home_runs": 0.2019, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1828, "model_over_probability": 0.1828, "model_under_probability": 0.8172, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1449, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8901, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.14, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.86, "edge_over": 0.0379, "edge_under": -0.0729, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0379, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9353, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.159, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.11, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 26.33, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.62, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.64, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.82, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2147, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1798, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.069, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1272, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1911, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.166, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0177, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0698, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0349, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1444, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0157, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0462, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0272, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0211, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1287, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1968, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0686, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 48, "edge_direction_rank": 45, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "hitter_id": 668227, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 590, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2019, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1828, "model_over_probability": 0.1828, "model_under_probability": 0.8172, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1449, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0379, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0379, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9353, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.159, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.11, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 26.33, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.62, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.64, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.82, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2147, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1798, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.069, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1272, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1911, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.166, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0177, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0698, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0349, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1444, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0157, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0462, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0272, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0211, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1287, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1968, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0686, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 49, "edge_direction_rank": 46, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 545, "under_odds": -770, "expected_home_runs": 0.2137, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1924, "model_over_probability": 0.1924, "model_under_probability": 0.8076, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.149, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.851, "edge_over": 0.0374, "edge_under": -0.0775, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0374, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9192, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.24, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.58, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.41, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.88, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2042, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1798, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.067, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1291, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1962, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1704, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0259, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0492, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0248, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1545, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0258, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0412, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0171, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0154, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1287, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1952, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0665, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 50, "edge_direction_rank": 47, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -975, "expected_home_runs": 0.1858, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1696, "model_over_probability": 0.1696, "model_under_probability": 0.8304, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.907, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1275, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8725, "edge_over": 0.0371, "edge_under": -0.0766, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0371, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.52, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1811, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1797, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0635, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1995, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1732, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0534, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0486, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0472, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1319, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.002, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.067, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0407, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1978, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0629, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 51, "edge_direction_rank": 48, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "hitter_id": 701538, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": -680, "expected_home_runs": 0.2225, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1995, "model_over_probability": 0.1995, "model_under_probability": 0.8005, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8718, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8428, "edge_over": 0.0369, "edge_under": -0.0713, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0369, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9543, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.113, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.85, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.49, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1397, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1354, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0483, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1251, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.118, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0471, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0229, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0272, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.162, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0623, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0375, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.029, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0446, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0998, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3995, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0478, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 52, "edge_direction_rank": 49, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "hitter_id": 701538, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2225, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1995, "model_over_probability": 0.1995, "model_under_probability": 0.8005, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0369, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0369, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9543, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.113, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.85, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.49, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1397, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1354, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0483, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1251, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.118, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0471, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0229, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0272, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.162, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0623, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0375, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.029, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0446, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0998, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3995, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0478, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 53, "edge_direction_rank": 50, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "hitter_id": 677951, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": -640, "expected_home_runs": 0.2382, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.212, "model_over_probability": 0.212, "model_under_probability": 0.788, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8649, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1686, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8314, "edge_over": 0.0366, "edge_under": -0.0769, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0366, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.8, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.29, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.18, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2032, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1796, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0669, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1587, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1878, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1633, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0167, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0278, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0042, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1748, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0462, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0124, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0033, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0121, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1265, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0662, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 54, "edge_direction_rank": 51, "value_score": 26.8, "value_rank": 16, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": -920, "expected_home_runs": 0.1858, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1696, "model_over_probability": 0.1696, "model_under_probability": 0.8304, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1288, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8712, "edge_over": 0.0363, "edge_under": -0.0716, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0363, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.52, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1811, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1797, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0635, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1995, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1732, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0542, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0478, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0464, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1327, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0012, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0662, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0458, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0399, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1978, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0629, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 56, "edge_direction_rank": 53, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1858, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1696, "model_over_probability": 0.1696, "model_under_probability": 0.8304, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0363, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0363, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.52, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1811, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1797, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0635, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1995, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1732, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0542, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0478, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0464, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1327, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0012, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0662, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0458, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0399, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1978, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0629, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 57, "edge_direction_rank": 54, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "hitter_id": 680757, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1010, "under_odds": -1720, "expected_home_runs": 0.1351, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1264, "model_over_probability": 0.1264, "model_under_probability": 0.8736, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0901, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9451, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.087, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.913, "edge_over": 0.0363, "edge_under": -0.0715, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0363, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.118, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.27, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.9, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.46, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.118, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1298, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0438, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0533, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1293, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1206, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0368, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0279, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0397, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0898, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0102, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0392, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0435, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0305, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0955, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0435, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 55, "edge_direction_rank": 52, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -645, "expected_home_runs": 0.2359, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2101, "model_over_probability": 0.2101, "model_under_probability": 0.7899, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8658, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1673, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8327, "edge_over": 0.0362, "edge_under": -0.0759, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0362, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.964, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.41, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.56, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.09, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.1, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2456, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2555, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0886, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1718, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.258, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2295, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0021, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0717, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0816, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1732, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0211, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0841, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0858, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0556, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0647, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1942, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2648, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0878, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 60, "edge_direction_rank": 57, "value_score": 25.8, "value_rank": 19, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -720, "expected_home_runs": 0.2137, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1924, "model_over_probability": 0.1924, "model_under_probability": 0.8076, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.151, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.849, "edge_over": 0.0362, "edge_under": -0.0704, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0362, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9192, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.24, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.58, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.41, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.88, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2042, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1798, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.067, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1291, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1962, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1704, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0271, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.048, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0236, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1557, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.04, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0159, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0142, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1287, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1952, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0665, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 58, "edge_direction_rank": 55, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2137, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1924, "model_over_probability": 0.1924, "model_under_probability": 0.8076, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0362, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0362, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9192, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.24, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.58, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.41, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.88, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2042, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1798, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.067, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1291, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1962, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1704, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0271, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.048, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0236, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1557, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.04, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0159, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0142, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1287, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1952, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0665, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 59, "edge_direction_rank": 56, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "hitter_id": 592206, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": -825, "expected_home_runs": 0.2029, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1836, "model_over_probability": 0.1836, "model_under_probability": 0.8164, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8919, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1424, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8576, "edge_over": 0.0355, "edge_under": -0.0755, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0355, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9342, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.21, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.113, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.52, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.26, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.33, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.27, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1557, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1462, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0528, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0945, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1484, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1334, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0536, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0076, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0019, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1476, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0414, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0003, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0059, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0147, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2086, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0523, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 61, "edge_direction_rank": 58, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "hitter_id": 677951, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -600, "expected_home_runs": 0.2382, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.212, "model_over_probability": 0.212, "model_under_probability": 0.788, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8571, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1712, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8288, "edge_over": 0.035, "edge_under": -0.0691, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.035, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.8, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.29, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.18, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2032, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1796, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0669, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1587, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1878, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1633, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0183, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0262, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0026, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1764, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0478, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0049, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0137, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1265, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0662, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 62, "edge_direction_rank": 59, "value_score": 26.6, "value_rank": 17, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "hitter_id": 677951, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2382, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.212, "model_over_probability": 0.212, "model_under_probability": 0.788, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.035, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.035, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.8, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.29, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.18, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2032, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1796, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0669, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1587, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1878, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1633, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0183, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0262, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0026, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1764, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0478, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0049, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0137, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1265, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0662, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 63, "edge_direction_rank": 60, "value_score": 26.6, "value_rank": 18, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "hitter_id": 680757, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 990, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1351, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1264, "model_over_probability": 0.1264, "model_under_probability": 0.8736, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0917, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0347, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0347, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.118, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.27, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.9, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.46, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.118, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1298, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0439, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0533, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1293, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1206, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0384, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0263, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0381, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0914, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0086, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0376, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0419, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0289, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0955, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0435, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 64, "edge_direction_rank": 61, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "hitter_id": 592206, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": -775, "expected_home_runs": 0.2029, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1836, "model_over_probability": 0.1836, "model_under_probability": 0.8164, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8857, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1443, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8557, "edge_over": 0.0343, "edge_under": -0.0693, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0343, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9342, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.21, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.113, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.52, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.26, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.33, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.27, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1557, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1462, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0528, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0945, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1484, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1334, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0548, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0064, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0031, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1488, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0426, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0009, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0071, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0159, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2086, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0523, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 65, "edge_direction_rank": 62, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "hitter_id": 592206, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2029, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1836, "model_over_probability": 0.1836, "model_under_probability": 0.8164, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0343, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0343, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9342, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.21, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.113, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.52, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.26, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.33, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.27, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1557, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1462, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0528, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0945, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1484, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1334, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0548, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0064, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0031, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1488, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0426, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0009, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0071, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0159, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1063, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2086, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0523, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 66, "edge_direction_rank": 63, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "hitter_id": 680757, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 985, "under_odds": -1815, "expected_home_runs": 0.1351, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1264, "model_over_probability": 0.1264, "model_under_probability": 0.8736, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0922, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9478, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0887, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9113, "edge_over": 0.0342, "edge_under": -0.0742, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0342, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.118, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.27, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 10.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.9, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.46, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.118, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1298, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1003, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0439, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0533, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1293, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1206, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0389, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0258, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0376, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0919, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0081, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0371, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0414, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0284, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0955, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0435, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 67, "edge_direction_rank": 64, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -605, "expected_home_runs": 0.2359, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2101, "model_over_probability": 0.2101, "model_under_probability": 0.7899, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8582, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.829, "edge_over": 0.0331, "edge_under": -0.0683, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0331, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.964, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.41, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.56, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.09, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.1, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2456, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2555, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0886, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1718, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.258, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2295, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0052, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0686, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0785, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1762, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.018, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.081, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0827, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0525, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0647, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1942, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2648, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0878, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 68, "edge_direction_rank": 65, "value_score": 25.3, "value_rank": 20, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2359, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2101, "model_over_probability": 0.2101, "model_under_probability": 0.7899, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0331, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0331, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.964, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.41, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.56, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.09, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.1, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2456, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2555, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.195, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0886, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1718, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.258, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2295, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0052, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0686, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0785, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1762, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.018, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.081, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0827, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0525, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0647, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1942, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2648, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0878, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 69, "edge_direction_rank": 66, "value_score": 25.3, "value_rank": 21, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "hitter_id": 647304, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": -680, "expected_home_runs": 0.2233, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001, "model_over_probability": 0.2001, "model_under_probability": 0.7999, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8718, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1617, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8383, "edge_over": 0.032, "edge_under": -0.0719, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.032, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9781, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.159, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.2, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.94, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.95, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1771, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1736, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0617, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1232, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1893, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1646, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0449, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.009, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0055, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1675, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0389, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0212, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.004, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0035, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1273, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.061, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 70, "edge_direction_rank": 67, "value_score": 19.7, "value_rank": 25, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "hitter_id": 647304, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": -640, "expected_home_runs": 0.2233, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001, "model_over_probability": 0.2001, "model_under_probability": 0.7999, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8649, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1639, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8361, "edge_over": 0.0306, "edge_under": -0.065, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0306, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9781, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.159, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.2, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.94, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.95, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1771, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1736, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0617, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1232, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1893, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1646, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0463, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0076, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0041, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1688, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0402, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0198, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0026, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0049, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1273, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.061, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 72, "edge_direction_rank": 68, "value_score": 19.5, "value_rank": 26, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "hitter_id": 647304, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2233, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001, "model_over_probability": 0.2001, "model_under_probability": 0.7999, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0306, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0306, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9781, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.159, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.2, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.94, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.95, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1771, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1736, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0617, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1232, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1893, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1646, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0463, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0076, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0041, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1688, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0402, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0198, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0026, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0049, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1273, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.061, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 73, "edge_direction_rank": 69, "value_score": 19.5, "value_rank": 27, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "hitter_id": 671732, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 545, "under_odds": -770, "expected_home_runs": 0.2043, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1848, "model_over_probability": 0.1848, "model_under_probability": 0.8152, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.149, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.851, "edge_over": 0.0298, "edge_under": -0.0699, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0298, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8863, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.102, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.08, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.34, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.97, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.33, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2074, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1859, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0687, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1389, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2144, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1864, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0161, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0524, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0309, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1544, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0205, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0594, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0241, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0314, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1812, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0681, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 74, "edge_direction_rank": 70, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "hitter_id": 687263, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": -640, "expected_home_runs": 0.2286, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2044, "model_over_probability": 0.2044, "model_under_probability": 0.7956, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8649, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1686, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8314, "edge_over": 0.029, "edge_under": -0.0693, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.029, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9385, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.58, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2307, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1884, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0736, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1595, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.231, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.202, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0159, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0553, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.013, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1745, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0408, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0556, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0037, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0266, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1337, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.149, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0727, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 75, "edge_direction_rank": 71, "value_score": 21.6, "value_rank": 22, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "hitter_id": 671732, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -725, "expected_home_runs": 0.2043, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1848, "model_over_probability": 0.1848, "model_under_probability": 0.8152, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8788, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1509, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8491, "edge_over": 0.0286, "edge_under": -0.0636, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0286, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8863, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.102, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.08, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.34, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.97, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.33, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2074, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1859, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0687, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1389, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2144, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1864, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0173, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0512, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0297, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1556, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0217, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0582, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0302, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1812, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0681, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 76, "edge_direction_rank": 72, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "hitter_id": 671732, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2043, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1848, "model_over_probability": 0.1848, "model_under_probability": 0.8152, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0286, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0286, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8863, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.102, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.08, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.34, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.97, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.33, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2074, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1859, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0687, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1389, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2144, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1864, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0173, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0512, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0297, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1556, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0217, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0582, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0302, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1812, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0681, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 77, "edge_direction_rank": 73, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "hitter_id": 687263, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2286, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2044, "model_over_probability": 0.2044, "model_under_probability": 0.7956, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0274, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0274, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9385, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.58, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2307, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1884, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0736, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1595, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.231, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.202, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0175, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0537, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0114, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1761, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0424, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.054, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0021, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.025, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1337, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.149, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0727, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 78, "edge_direction_rank": 74, "value_score": 21.3, "value_rank": 23, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "hitter_id": 701762, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": -345, "expected_home_runs": 0.2202, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1976, "model_over_probability": 0.1976, "model_under_probability": 0.8024, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7753, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2534, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7466, "edge_over": -0.0656, "edge_under": 0.0271, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0271, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.946, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.53, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.102, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.61, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.11, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.38, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.16, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1088, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1276, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0025, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1008, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0434, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.121, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.13, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1211, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1422, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1544, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1356, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2607, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1624, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1332, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1296, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1421, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0328, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0983, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4768, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0409, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 79, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "hitter_id": 668930, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1010, "under_odds": -1710, "expected_home_runs": 0.1239, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1165, "model_over_probability": 0.1165, "model_under_probability": 0.8835, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0901, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9448, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0871, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9129, "edge_over": 0.0264, "edge_under": -0.0613, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0264, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7926, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.92, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.151, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.875, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.87, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.74, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.55, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.93, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.23, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1412, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1419, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0002, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0497, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1094, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1511, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1353, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0193, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0511, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0518, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0899, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0166, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.061, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0521, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0452, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0355, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1065, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3225, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0495, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 80, "edge_direction_rank": 75, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "hitter_id": 691016, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": -845, "expected_home_runs": 0.1888, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.172, "model_over_probability": 0.172, "model_under_probability": 0.828, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8942, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1404, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8596, "edge_over": 0.026, "edge_under": -0.0662, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.026, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8633, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.102, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.69, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.04, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.52, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2015, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1845, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0675, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1553, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2201, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1916, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0093, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0555, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0385, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1454, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0115, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0741, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0331, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0456, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.067, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 81, "edge_direction_rank": 76, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "hitter_id": 687263, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -600, "expected_home_runs": 0.2286, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2044, "model_over_probability": 0.2044, "model_under_probability": 0.7956, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8571, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8276, "edge_over": 0.0258, "edge_under": -0.0615, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0258, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9385, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.58, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2307, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1884, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0736, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1595, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.231, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.202, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0191, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0521, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0098, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1777, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.044, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0524, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0234, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1337, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.149, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0727, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 82, "edge_direction_rank": 77, "value_score": 21.1, "value_rank": 24, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "hitter_id": 663728, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 275, "under_odds": -330, "expected_home_runs": 0.2318, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2069, "model_over_probability": 0.2069, "model_under_probability": 0.7931, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7674, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2579, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7421, "edge_over": -0.0598, "edge_under": 0.0257, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0257, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9665, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.159, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 40.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 33.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 30.79, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 39.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 32.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1743, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1448, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0027, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1023, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0569, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1716, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.139, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.127, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0951, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0924, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1219, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.264, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1644, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1277, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1312, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1397, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0332, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0997, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0543, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 83, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "hitter_id": 691016, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": -795, "expected_home_runs": 0.1888, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.172, "model_over_probability": 0.172, "model_under_probability": 0.828, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8883, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1421, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8579, "edge_over": 0.0249, "edge_under": -0.0603, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0249, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8633, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.102, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.69, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.04, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.52, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2015, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1845, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0675, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1553, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2201, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1916, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0082, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0544, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0374, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1465, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0126, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.073, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.032, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0445, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.067, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 84, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "hitter_id": 691016, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1888, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.172, "model_over_probability": 0.172, "model_under_probability": 0.828, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0249, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0249, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8633, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.102, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.69, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.04, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.52, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2015, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1845, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0675, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1553, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2201, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1916, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0082, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0544, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0374, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1465, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0126, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.073, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.032, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0445, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.067, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 85, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "hitter_id": 668930, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 990, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1239, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1165, "model_over_probability": 0.1165, "model_under_probability": 0.8835, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0917, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0248, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0248, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7926, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.92, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.151, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.875, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.87, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.74, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.55, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.93, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.23, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1412, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1419, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0002, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0497, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1094, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1511, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1353, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0177, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0495, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0502, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0915, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.015, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0594, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0505, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0436, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0355, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1064, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3225, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0495, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 86, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "hitter_id": 668930, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 980, "under_odds": -1805, "expected_home_runs": 0.1239, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1165, "model_over_probability": 0.1165, "model_under_probability": 0.8835, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0926, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9475, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.089, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.911, "edge_over": 0.0239, "edge_under": -0.064, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0239, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7926, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.92, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.151, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.875, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.87, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.74, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.55, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.93, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.23, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1412, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1419, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0002, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0497, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1094, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1511, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1353, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0168, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0486, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0493, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0924, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0141, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0585, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0496, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0427, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0355, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1064, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3225, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0495, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 87, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1005, "under_odds": -1700, "expected_home_runs": 0.1196, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1127, "model_over_probability": 0.1127, "model_under_probability": 0.8873, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0874, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9126, "edge_over": 0.0222, "edge_under": -0.0571, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0222, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.102, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.16, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0603, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0109, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0123, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0235, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0503, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0786, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.067, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0302, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0796, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0902, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0904, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0402, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0905, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0119, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.8213, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.012, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 88, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_id": 677594, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.2233, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001, "model_over_probability": 0.2001, "model_under_probability": 0.7999, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8621, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1716, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8284, "edge_over": 0.0215, "edge_under": -0.0622, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0215, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.159, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.02, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 26.07, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.32, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2006, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.179, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0663, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1497, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1864, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1622, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0289, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.022, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0004, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.178, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0494, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0078, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0065, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0164, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0962, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0657, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 90, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "hitter_id": 663330, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Kris Bubic", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": -885, "expected_home_runs": 0.1779, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.163, "model_over_probability": 0.163, "model_under_probability": 0.837, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8985, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1363, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8637, "edge_over": 0.0212, "edge_under": -0.0615, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0212, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.78, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.956, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.97, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 6.87, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.07, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1914, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2474, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0775, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2224, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2442, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2152, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0806, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0496, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1056, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1413, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0531, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1024, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1179, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0734, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0648, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1944, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.574, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0771, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 91, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 985, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1196, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1127, "model_over_probability": 0.1127, "model_under_probability": 0.8873, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0922, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0205, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0205, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.102, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.16, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0603, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0109, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0123, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0235, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0503, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0786, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0687, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0319, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0813, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0919, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0921, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0419, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0922, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0136, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.8213, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.012, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 93, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "hitter_id": 663330, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Kris Bubic", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": -830, "expected_home_runs": 0.1779, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.163, "model_over_probability": 0.163, "model_under_probability": 0.837, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8925, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.138, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.862, "edge_over": 0.0201, "edge_under": -0.0555, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0201, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.78, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.956, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.97, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 6.87, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.07, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1914, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2474, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0775, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2224, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2442, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2152, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0795, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0485, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1045, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1424, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.052, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1013, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1168, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0723, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0648, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1944, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.574, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0771, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 95, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jahmai Jones", "hitter_id": 663330, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Kris Bubic", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1779, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.163, "model_over_probability": 0.163, "model_under_probability": 0.837, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0201, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0201, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.78, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.956, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.97, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 6.87, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.07, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1914, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2474, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0775, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2224, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2442, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2152, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0795, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0485, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1045, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1424, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.052, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1013, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1168, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0723, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0648, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1944, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.574, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0771, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 96, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 980, "under_odds": -1795, "expected_home_runs": 0.1196, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1127, "model_over_probability": 0.1127, "model_under_probability": 0.8873, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0926, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9472, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0891, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9109, "edge_over": 0.0201, "edge_under": -0.0599, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0201, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.102, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.16, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0603, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0109, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0123, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0235, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0503, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0786, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0691, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0323, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0817, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0923, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0925, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0423, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0926, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.014, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0002, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.8213, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.012, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 94, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_id": 677594, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2233, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001, "model_over_probability": 0.2001, "model_under_probability": 0.7999, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0199, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0199, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.159, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.02, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 26.07, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.32, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2006, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.179, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0663, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1497, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1864, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1622, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0305, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0204, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0012, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1796, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.051, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0062, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0081, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.018, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0962, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0657, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 97, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_id": 677594, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -585, "expected_home_runs": 0.2233, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001, "model_over_probability": 0.2001, "model_under_probability": 0.7999, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1755, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8245, "edge_over": 0.0183, "edge_under": -0.0541, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0183, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.159, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.02, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 26.07, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.32, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2006, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.179, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0664, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1497, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1864, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1622, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0321, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0188, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0028, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1812, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0526, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0046, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0097, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0196, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0962, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0657, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 100, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "hitter_id": 521692, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.217, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1951, "model_over_probability": 0.1951, "model_under_probability": 0.8049, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8621, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1716, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8284, "edge_over": 0.0165, "edge_under": -0.0572, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0165, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 26.26, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.49, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.01, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1968, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.178, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0657, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1251, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1882, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1636, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0535, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0182, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0006, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1778, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0493, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0065, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.015, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1285, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0492, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0649, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 102, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "hitter_id": 665487, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -670, "expected_home_runs": 0.207, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.187, "model_over_probability": 0.187, "model_under_probability": 0.813, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8701, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1642, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8358, "edge_over": 0.0161, "edge_under": -0.0571, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0161, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9319, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.48, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.113, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.69, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.32, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1998, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1841, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0672, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1583, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1971, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1711, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0126, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0289, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0132, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1703, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0364, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0262, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0002, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0768, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0666, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 103, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -615, "expected_home_runs": 0.2183, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1961, "model_over_probability": 0.1961, "model_under_probability": 0.8039, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8601, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1732, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8268, "edge_over": 0.0159, "edge_under": -0.0562, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0159, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9287, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.28, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.44, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.84, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1386, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1411, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0497, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0651, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1458, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1316, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1151, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0416, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0391, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1792, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0733, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0344, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.038, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0486, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1059, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3165, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0487, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 104, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "hitter_id": 521692, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.217, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1951, "model_over_probability": 0.1951, "model_under_probability": 0.8049, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0149, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0149, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 26.26, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.49, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.01, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1968, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.178, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0657, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1251, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1882, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1636, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0551, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0166, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0022, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1794, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0509, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.008, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0081, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0166, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1285, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0492, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0649, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 106, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "hitter_id": 665487, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.207, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.187, "model_over_probability": 0.187, "model_under_probability": 0.813, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8621, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8333, "edge_over": 0.0146, "edge_under": -0.0491, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0146, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9319, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.48, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.113, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.69, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.32, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1998, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1841, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0672, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1583, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1971, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1711, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0141, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0274, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0117, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1718, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0379, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0247, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0067, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0013, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0768, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0666, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 107, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "hitter_id": 665487, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.207, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.187, "model_over_probability": 0.187, "model_under_probability": 0.813, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0146, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0146, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9319, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.48, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.113, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.69, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 17.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.32, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1998, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1841, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0672, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1583, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1971, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1711, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0141, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0274, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0117, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1718, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0379, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0247, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0067, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0013, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0768, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0666, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 108, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2183, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1961, "model_over_probability": 0.1961, "model_under_probability": 0.8039, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0143, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0143, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9287, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.28, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.44, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.84, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1386, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1411, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0497, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0651, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1458, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1316, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1167, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0432, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0407, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1808, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0749, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.036, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0396, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0502, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1058, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3165, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0487, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 112, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "hitter_id": 679529, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Kris Bubic", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -645, "expected_home_runs": 0.2075, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1874, "model_over_probability": 0.1874, "model_under_probability": 0.8126, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8658, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1673, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8327, "edge_over": 0.0135, "edge_under": -0.0532, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0135, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.976, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.26, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.956, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.96, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1894, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1822, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0653, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1487, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1744, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0252, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0155, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0083, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.173, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0393, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0052, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0005, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1337, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0987, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0644, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 113, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "hitter_id": 521692, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -585, "expected_home_runs": 0.217, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1951, "model_over_probability": 0.1951, "model_under_probability": 0.8049, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1755, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8245, "edge_over": 0.0133, "edge_under": -0.0491, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0133, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.119, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 26.26, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.49, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.01, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1968, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.178, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0657, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1251, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1882, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1636, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0567, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.015, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0038, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.181, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0525, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0064, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0097, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0182, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1285, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0492, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0649, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 114, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "hitter_id": 663728, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 285, "under_odds": -355, "expected_home_runs": 0.2318, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2069, "model_over_probability": 0.2069, "model_under_probability": 0.7931, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2597, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7802, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2497, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7503, "edge_over": -0.0528, "edge_under": 0.0129, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0129, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9665, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.159, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 40.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 33.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 30.79, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 39.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 32.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1743, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1448, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0024, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1023, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0567, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1716, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.139, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.127, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0881, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0854, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1149, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2573, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1574, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1207, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1242, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1327, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0999, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0543, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 115, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "hitter_id": 681351, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 510, "under_odds": -705, "expected_home_runs": 0.1944, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1767, "model_over_probability": 0.1767, "model_under_probability": 0.8233, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1639, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8758, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1576, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8424, "edge_over": 0.0128, "edge_under": -0.0525, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0128, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8535, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.82, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.21, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.59, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1515, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1672, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0567, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1186, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1874, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1629, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0453, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0124, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0033, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.163, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0346, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0235, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.001, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1284, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2222, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0558, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 116, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -575, "expected_home_runs": 0.2183, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1961, "model_over_probability": 0.1961, "model_under_probability": 0.8039, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8519, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1772, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8228, "edge_over": 0.0126, "edge_under": -0.048, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0126, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9287, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.28, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.44, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 13.67, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 3.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.84, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1386, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1411, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0497, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0651, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1458, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1316, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1184, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0449, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0424, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1824, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0766, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0377, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0413, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0519, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1058, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3165, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0487, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 117, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "hitter_id": 592885, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -725, "expected_home_runs": 0.1902, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1732, "model_over_probability": 0.1732, "model_under_probability": 0.8268, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8788, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1551, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8449, "edge_over": 0.0119, "edge_under": -0.052, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0119, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8819, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.151, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.875, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.3, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.52, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.86, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2004, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1842, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0673, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1249, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2138, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1859, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0364, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0391, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0229, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1608, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0268, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0525, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0178, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0246, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.265, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0668, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 120, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "hitter_id": 681351, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 505, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1944, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1767, "model_over_probability": 0.1767, "model_under_probability": 0.8233, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1653, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0114, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0114, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8535, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.82, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.21, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.59, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1515, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1672, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0567, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1186, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1874, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1629, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0467, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0138, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0019, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1644, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.036, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0221, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0068, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0024, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1284, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2222, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0558, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 122, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "hitter_id": 592885, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": -680, "expected_home_runs": 0.1902, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1732, "model_over_probability": 0.1732, "model_under_probability": 0.8268, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8718, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8428, "edge_over": 0.0106, "edge_under": -0.045, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0106, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8819, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.151, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.875, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.3, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.52, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.86, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2004, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1842, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0673, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1249, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2138, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1859, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0377, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0378, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0216, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1621, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0281, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0512, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0165, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0233, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.265, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0668, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 123, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "hitter_id": 592885, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1902, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1732, "model_over_probability": 0.1732, "model_under_probability": 0.8268, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0106, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0106, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8819, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.151, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.875, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.3, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.52, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.86, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2004, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1842, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0673, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1249, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2138, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1859, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0377, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0378, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0216, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1621, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0281, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0512, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0165, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0233, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.265, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0668, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 124, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "hitter_id": 679529, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Kris Bubic", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -605, "expected_home_runs": 0.2075, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1874, "model_over_probability": 0.1874, "model_under_probability": 0.8126, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8582, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.829, "edge_over": 0.0104, "edge_under": -0.0456, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0104, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.976, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.26, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.956, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.96, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1894, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1822, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0654, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1487, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1744, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0283, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0124, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0052, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1761, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0424, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0239, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0021, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0026, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0445, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0987, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0644, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 125, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "hitter_id": 679529, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Kris Bubic", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2075, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1874, "model_over_probability": 0.1874, "model_under_probability": 0.8126, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0104, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0104, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.976, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.26, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.956, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.96, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1894, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1822, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0654, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1487, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1744, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0283, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0124, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0052, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1761, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0424, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0239, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0021, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0026, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0445, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0987, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0644, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 126, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_id": 553993, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -475, "expected_home_runs": 0.2522, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2229, "model_over_probability": 0.2229, "model_under_probability": 0.7771, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2048, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7952, "edge_over": 0.0101, "edge_under": -0.049, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0101, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9387, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.32, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 27.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.58, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.34, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1923, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.177, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1295, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0653, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.157, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.183, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1594, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0558, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0205, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0358, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2113, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0833, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0298, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0407, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0534, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0426, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1279, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1985, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0637, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 128, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 395, "under_odds": -520, "expected_home_runs": 0.2383, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.212, "model_over_probability": 0.212, "model_under_probability": 0.788, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.202, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8387, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1941, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8059, "edge_over": 0.01, "edge_under": -0.0507, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.01, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.118, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 29.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 30.47, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 22.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.86, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2215, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1868, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0718, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1748, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1972, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1712, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0272, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0195, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0152, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.201, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0674, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0048, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0308, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0445, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.129, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0708, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 129, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "hitter_id": 681351, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": -660, "expected_home_runs": 0.1944, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1767, "model_over_probability": 0.1767, "model_under_probability": 0.8233, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8684, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.161, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.839, "edge_over": 0.01, "edge_under": -0.0451, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.01, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8535, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.82, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 15.21, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.59, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1515, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1672, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0567, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1186, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1874, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1629, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0481, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0152, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0005, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1657, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0374, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0207, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0054, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0038, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1284, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2222, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0558, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 130, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2383, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.212, "model_over_probability": 0.212, "model_under_probability": 0.788, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0079, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0079, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.118, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 29.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 30.47, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 22.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.86, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2215, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1868, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0719, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1748, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1972, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1712, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0293, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0174, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0173, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2031, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0695, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0069, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.025, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0329, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0445, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.129, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0708, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 131, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "hitter_id": 700932, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -650, "expected_home_runs": 0.1998, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1811, "model_over_probability": 0.1811, "model_under_probability": 0.8189, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8667, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1671, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8329, "edge_over": 0.0072, "edge_under": -0.0478, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0072, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.118, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.21, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.76, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.81, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1831, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1635, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1182, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0607, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1498, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1735, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1519, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0241, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0092, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0104, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1732, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0557, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0004, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0166, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.022, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0391, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1174, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.06, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.06, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 132, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 385, "under_odds": -485, "expected_home_runs": 0.2383, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.212, "model_over_probability": 0.212, "model_under_probability": 0.788, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2062, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8291, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1992, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8008, "edge_over": 0.0058, "edge_under": -0.0411, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0058, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.118, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 29.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 30.47, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 22.27, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.86, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2215, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1868, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1346, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0719, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1748, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1972, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1712, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0314, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0153, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0194, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2051, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0716, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.009, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0271, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.035, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0445, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1335, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.129, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0708, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 133, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "hitter_id": 700932, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1998, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1811, "model_over_probability": 0.1811, "model_under_probability": 0.8189, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0057, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0057, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.118, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.21, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.76, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.81, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1831, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1635, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1182, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0607, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1498, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1735, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1519, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0256, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0077, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0119, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1746, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0572, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0019, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0181, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0235, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0391, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1174, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.06, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.06, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 134, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_id": 553993, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2522, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2229, "model_over_probability": 0.2229, "model_under_probability": 0.7771, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0055, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0055, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9387, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.32, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 27.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.58, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.34, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1923, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.177, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0016, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1295, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0654, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.157, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.183, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1594, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0604, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0251, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0404, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2158, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0879, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0344, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0453, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.058, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0426, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1279, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1985, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0637, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 135, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_id": 682985, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Kris Bubic", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": -655, "expected_home_runs": 0.1951, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1772, "model_over_probability": 0.1772, "model_under_probability": 0.8228, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8675, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1658, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8342, "edge_over": 0.0048, "edge_under": -0.0447, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0048, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8899, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.04, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.956, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.19, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.7, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.24, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1742, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0621, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1165, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1918, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1666, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0559, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0067, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0018, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1716, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0431, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0194, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0003, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0058, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1285, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0913, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0614, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 136, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "hitter_id": 700932, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -610, "expected_home_runs": 0.1998, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1811, "model_over_probability": 0.1811, "model_under_probability": 0.8189, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8592, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1708, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8292, "edge_over": 0.0041, "edge_under": -0.0403, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0041, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.118, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.984, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.21, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.76, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.81, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1831, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1635, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1182, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0607, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1498, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1735, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1519, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0272, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0061, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0135, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1762, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0588, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0035, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0197, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0251, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0391, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1174, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.06, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.06, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 137, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_id": 545361, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": -540, "expected_home_runs": 0.2224, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1994, "model_over_probability": 0.1994, "model_under_probability": 0.8006, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8438, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1886, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8114, "edge_over": 0.0033, "edge_under": -0.0432, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0033, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.899, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.26, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.64, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.33, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.47, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.16, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2346, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2537, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1951, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0866, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.181, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2465, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2175, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0151, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0385, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0576, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1949, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.001, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0504, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0636, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0214, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0646, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1939, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2728, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0855, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 138, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_id": 682985, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Kris Bubic", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1951, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1772, "model_over_probability": 0.1772, "model_under_probability": 0.8228, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0033, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0033, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8899, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.04, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.956, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.19, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.7, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.24, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1742, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0621, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1165, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1918, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1666, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0574, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0052, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0003, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1731, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0446, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0179, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0018, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0073, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1285, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0913, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0614, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 139, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_id": 553993, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 355, "under_odds": -445, "expected_home_runs": 0.2522, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2229, "model_over_probability": 0.2229, "model_under_probability": 0.7771, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8165, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2121, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7879, "edge_over": 0.0031, "edge_under": -0.0394, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0031, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9387, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.32, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 27.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.58, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.34, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1923, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.177, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1295, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0654, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.157, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.183, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1594, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0628, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0275, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0428, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2181, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0903, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0368, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0477, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0604, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0426, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1278, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1985, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0637, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 140, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Riley Greene", "hitter_id": 682985, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Kris Bubic", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": -615, "expected_home_runs": 0.1951, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1772, "model_over_probability": 0.1772, "model_under_probability": 0.8228, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8601, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1694, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8306, "edge_over": 0.0018, "edge_under": -0.0373, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0018, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8899, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.04, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.956, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.029, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.19, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.28, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.7, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.24, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1742, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0622, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1165, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1918, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1666, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0589, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0037, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0012, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1746, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0461, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0164, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0033, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0088, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1285, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0913, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0614, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 143, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_id": 545361, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2224, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1994, "model_over_probability": 0.1994, "model_under_probability": 0.8006, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0014, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0014, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.899, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.26, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.64, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.33, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.47, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.16, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2346, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2537, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1951, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0867, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.181, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2465, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2175, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.017, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0366, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0557, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1968, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0029, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0485, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0617, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0195, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0646, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1939, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2728, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0855, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 145, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "hitter_id": 592518, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": -580, "expected_home_runs": 0.2086, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1883, "model_over_probability": 0.1883, "model_under_probability": 0.8117, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8203, "edge_over": 0.0014, "edge_under": -0.0412, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0014, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.113, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.54, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.67, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.86, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1727, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.161, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1182, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0586, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1221, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1755, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1534, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0648, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0142, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0259, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1862, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0687, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0114, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0296, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0335, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0391, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1174, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0911, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0579, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 144, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "hitter_id": 592518, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2086, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1883, "model_over_probability": 0.1883, "model_under_probability": 0.8117, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0004, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0004, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.113, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.54, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.67, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.86, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1727, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.161, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1182, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0586, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1221, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1755, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1534, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0666, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.016, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0277, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1879, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0705, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0314, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0353, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0391, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1174, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0911, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0579, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 147, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_id": 545361, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": -505, "expected_home_runs": 0.2224, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1994, "model_over_probability": 0.1994, "model_under_probability": 0.8006, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8347, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1933, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8067, "edge_over": -0.0006, "edge_under": -0.0341, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0006, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.899, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.26, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.64, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.33, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.47, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.16, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2346, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2537, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1951, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0867, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.181, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2465, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2175, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.019, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0346, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0537, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1988, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0049, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0465, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0597, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0175, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0646, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1939, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2728, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0854, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 146, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": -470, "expected_home_runs": 0.1953, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1774, "model_over_probability": 0.1774, "model_under_probability": 0.8226, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8246, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2034, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7966, "edge_over": -0.0331, "edge_under": -0.002, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.002, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8709, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.06, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.102, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.05, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1476, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1438, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0516, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1134, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1547, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1378, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0971, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0629, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0667, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2093, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1036, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0558, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0683, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0727, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0352, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1057, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1822, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0504, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 142, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "hitter_id": 592518, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": -545, "expected_home_runs": 0.2086, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1883, "model_over_probability": 0.1883, "model_under_probability": 0.8117, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.845, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.184, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.816, "edge_over": -0.0022, "edge_under": -0.0333, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0022, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.113, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.54, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.67, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.86, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1727, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.161, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0008, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1182, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0587, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1221, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1755, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1534, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0684, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0178, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0295, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1897, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0723, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.015, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0332, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0371, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0391, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1174, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0911, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0579, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 141, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_id": 669394, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": -525, "expected_home_runs": 0.2103, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1897, "model_over_probability": 0.1897, "model_under_probability": 0.8103, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.84, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8077, "edge_over": -0.0103, "edge_under": -0.0297, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0103, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9306, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.32, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.76, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.14, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.91, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1441, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1428, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0509, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1037, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1483, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1334, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0963, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0559, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0572, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1989, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0931, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0517, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0578, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0666, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1058, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2883, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0497, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 127, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 355, "under_odds": -445, "expected_home_runs": 0.2174, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1954, "model_over_probability": 0.1954, "model_under_probability": 0.8046, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8165, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2121, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7879, "edge_over": -0.0244, "edge_under": -0.0119, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0119, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9029, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.64, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.193, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1641, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1165, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0626, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1377, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1714, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1503, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0821, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0268, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0557, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2186, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1033, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0484, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0648, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0695, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0385, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1154, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.135, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0614, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 121, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": -505, "expected_home_runs": 0.1953, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1774, "model_over_probability": 0.1774, "model_under_probability": 0.8226, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8347, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1965, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8035, "edge_over": -0.0267, "edge_under": -0.0121, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0121, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8709, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.06, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.102, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.05, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1476, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1438, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0515, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1134, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1547, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1378, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0907, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0565, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0603, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.203, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0972, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0494, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0619, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0663, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1058, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1822, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0505, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 119, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "hitter_id": 667670, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": -450, "expected_home_runs": 0.2158, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1941, "model_over_probability": 0.1941, "model_under_probability": 0.8059, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8182, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2099, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7901, "edge_over": -0.0233, "edge_under": -0.0123, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0123, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9251, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.36, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.102, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.17, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1607, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1466, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0543, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1211, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1618, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.143, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0963, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0567, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0708, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2162, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1105, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0556, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0752, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0744, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0352, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1057, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2171, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.053, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 118, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_id": 669394, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": -490, "expected_home_runs": 0.2103, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1897, "model_over_probability": 0.1897, "model_under_probability": 0.8103, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1973, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8027, "edge_over": -0.0144, "edge_under": -0.0202, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0144, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9306, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.32, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.76, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.14, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.91, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1441, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1428, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0509, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1037, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1483, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1334, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1004, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.06, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0613, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2029, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0972, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0558, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0619, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0707, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0352, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1057, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2883, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0497, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 110, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_id": 669394, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2103, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1897, "model_over_probability": 0.1897, "model_under_probability": 0.8103, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0144, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0144, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9306, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.32, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 17.76, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.14, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.91, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1441, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1428, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0509, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1037, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1483, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1334, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1004, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.06, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0613, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2029, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0972, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0558, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0619, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0707, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0352, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1057, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2883, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0497, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 111, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": -475, "expected_home_runs": 0.2089, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1885, "model_over_probability": 0.1885, "model_under_probability": 0.8115, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2031, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7969, "edge_over": -0.022, "edge_under": -0.0146, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0146, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8848, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.02, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.81, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 21.21, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2174, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1883, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1348, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0714, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1846, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2138, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1858, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0259, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0069, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0222, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2088, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0757, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0033, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0314, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0247, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0444, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1331, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2077, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0698, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 109, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": -505, "expected_home_runs": 0.2089, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1885, "model_over_probability": 0.1885, "model_under_probability": 0.8115, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8347, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1965, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8035, "edge_over": -0.0156, "edge_under": -0.0232, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0156, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8848, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.02, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.81, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 21.21, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2174, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1883, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0015, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1347, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0713, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1846, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2138, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1858, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0195, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0133, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0158, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2026, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0694, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0097, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.025, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0183, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0444, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1332, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2077, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0698, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 105, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -475, "expected_home_runs": 0.2174, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1954, "model_over_probability": 0.1954, "model_under_probability": 0.8046, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2048, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7952, "edge_over": -0.0174, "edge_under": -0.0215, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0174, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9029, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.64, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.193, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1641, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1165, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0625, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1377, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1714, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1503, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0751, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0198, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0487, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2118, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0963, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0414, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0578, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0625, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0385, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.135, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0615, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 101, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "hitter_id": 667670, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -480, "expected_home_runs": 0.2158, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1941, "model_over_probability": 0.1941, "model_under_probability": 0.8059, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8276, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2045, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7955, "edge_over": -0.0187, "edge_under": -0.0217, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0187, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9251, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.36, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.102, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.17, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1607, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1466, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0542, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1211, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1618, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.143, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0917, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0521, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0662, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2117, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1059, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.051, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0706, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0698, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1058, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2171, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0531, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 99, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2089, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1885, "model_over_probability": 0.1885, "model_under_probability": 0.8115, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0198, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0198, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8848, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.02, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.962, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.118, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.81, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 21.21, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2174, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1883, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0016, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1348, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0714, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1846, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2138, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1858, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0237, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0091, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.02, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2067, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0735, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0055, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0292, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0225, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0444, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1332, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2077, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0698, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 98, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "hitter_id": 667670, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 365, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2158, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1941, "model_over_probability": 0.1941, "model_under_probability": 0.8059, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2151, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.021, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.021, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9251, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.36, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.102, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.17, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1607, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1466, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0012, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0542, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1211, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1618, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.143, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.094, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0544, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0685, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2139, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0533, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0729, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0721, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1058, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2171, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0531, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 92, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2174, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1954, "model_over_probability": 0.1954, "model_under_probability": 0.8046, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.022, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.022, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9029, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.08, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.64, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.193, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1641, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1165, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0626, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1377, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1714, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1503, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0797, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0244, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0533, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2163, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1009, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.046, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0624, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0671, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0385, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1154, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.135, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0615, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 89, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1953, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1774, "model_over_probability": 0.1774, "model_under_probability": 0.8226, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0309, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0309, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8709, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.06, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.102, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.03, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.05, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1476, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1438, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1069, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0516, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1134, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1547, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1378, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0949, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0607, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0645, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2072, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1014, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0536, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0661, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0705, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0353, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1058, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1822, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0504, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 71, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "hitter_id": 663728, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2318, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2069, "model_over_probability": 0.2069, "model_under_probability": 0.7931, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0563, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0563, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9665, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.159, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.951, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 40.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 33.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 30.79, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 39.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 32.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1743, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1448, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0025, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1023, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0568, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1716, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.139, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.127, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0916, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0889, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1184, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2607, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1609, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1242, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1277, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1362, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0333, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0998, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0543, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 23, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "hitter_id": 701762, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-16T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 270, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2202, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1976, "model_over_probability": 0.1976, "model_under_probability": 0.8024, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2703, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0727, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0727, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.946, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.53, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.102, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.61, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 16.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 15.11, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.38, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.16, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1088, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1276, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0028, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1009, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0436, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.121, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.13, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1211, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1493, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1615, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1427, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2675, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1694, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1403, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1367, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1492, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0327, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0981, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4768, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0408, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 7, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" } ], "value_plays": [ { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 655, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2313, "edge_over": 0.0988, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 51.4, "value_rank": 1, "value_row_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 540, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2419, "edge_over": 0.0857, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 49.6, "value_rank": 2, "value_row_rank": 4, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 605, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2133, "edge_over": 0.0715, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 34.3, "value_rank": 3, "value_row_rank": 7, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 650, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.201, "edge_over": 0.0677, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Play", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.23, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 30.1, "value_rank": 4, "value_row_rank": 10, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 545, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2111, "edge_over": 0.0561, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Play", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 0.99, "environment_summary": "neutral", "value_score": 28.5, "value_rank": 5, "value_row_rank": 13, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [] }