{ "date": "2026-04-27", "generated_at": "2026-04-27T09:02:44.593677", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-04-27", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 156, "matched_count": 156, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 156, "matched_rows": 156, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 42, "under_recommendation_count": 4, "strong_count": 3, "play_count": 15, "lean_count": 28, "no_play_count": 110, "average_edge_over": 0.0034, "average_edge_under": -0.0411, "value_play_count": 4 }, "edge_count": 156, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "hitter_id": 643217, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jack Kochanowicz", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": -900, "expected_home_runs": 0.2468, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2187, "model_over_probability": 0.2187, "model_under_probability": 0.7813, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1305, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8695, "edge_over": 0.0836, "edge_under": -0.1187, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0836, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9303, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.13, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.096, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.82, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.197, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1834, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0666, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1537, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2289, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0186, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0619, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0483, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1346, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0938, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.044, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0649, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1644, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0661, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 41.4, "value_rank": 1, "value_box_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.82, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.82, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1537, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1537, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8463, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0186, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2468, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2468, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.044, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1345, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1345, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8654999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0006, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0446, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "hitter_id": 643217, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jack Kochanowicz", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": -955, "expected_home_runs": 0.2468, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2187, "model_over_probability": 0.2187, "model_under_probability": 0.7813, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9052, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8701, "edge_over": 0.0836, "edge_under": -0.1239, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0836, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9303, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.13, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.096, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.82, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.197, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1834, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0666, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1537, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2289, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0186, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0619, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0483, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1346, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0938, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.044, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0649, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1644, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0661, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 41.4, "value_rank": 2, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.82, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.82, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1537, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1537, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8463, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0186, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2468, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2468, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.044, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1345, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1345, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8654999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0006, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0446, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi", "hitter_id": 643217, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jack Kochanowicz", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2468, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2187, "model_over_probability": 0.2187, "model_under_probability": 0.7813, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0836, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0836, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9303, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.13, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.096, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 14.22, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 9.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.82, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.197, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1834, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0666, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1537, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2289, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0186, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0619, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0483, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1346, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0938, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.044, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0649, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0447, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.134, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1644, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0661, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": 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"valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1346, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1346, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8654, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.044, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04450000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Jung", "hitter_id": 673962, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 665, "under_odds": -945, "expected_home_runs": 0.1822, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1666, "model_over_probability": 0.1666, "model_under_probability": 0.8334, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1307, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9043, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1263, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8737, "edge_over": 0.0359, "edge_under": -0.0709, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0359, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8883, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.68, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.951, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.064, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 11.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 4.92, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.144, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1427, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0505, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0803, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1647, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1452, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0504, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0133, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.012, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1301, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0239, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.034, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0115, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0145, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2236, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0499, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 35, "edge_direction_rank": 26, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 6.44, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 6.44, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0803, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0803, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9197, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0504, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1822, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1822, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0115, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model 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"2026-04-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 665, "under_odds": -1005, "expected_home_runs": 0.1822, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1666, "model_over_probability": 0.1666, "model_under_probability": 0.8334, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1307, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9095, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1256, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8744, "edge_over": 0.0359, "edge_under": -0.0761, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0359, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8883, 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"pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.887, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.98, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.26, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1804, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1611, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0005, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1164, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0597, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1051, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1687, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1482, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0549, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0204, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0011, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1595, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0436, 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"xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.41, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.084, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.869, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 20.32, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.13, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.43, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1627, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1471, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0542, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1274, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1641, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1448, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0276, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0077, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0079, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1544, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0482, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0091, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0128, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0102, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0764, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0537, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", 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"everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9533, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.18, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.094, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.064, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.3, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.14, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.96, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.6, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1984, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1838, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0011, 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0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1338, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.09, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0637, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed 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"valinor_gap_pct": -0.0409, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05230000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "hitter_id": 805300, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 855, "under_odds": -1340, "expected_home_runs": 0.12, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1131, "model_over_probability": 0.1131, "model_under_probability": 0.8869, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1047, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9306, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1011, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8989, "edge_over": 0.0084, "edge_under": -0.0437, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0084, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8618, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.989, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.4, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.887, 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"suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 111, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 1.51, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 1.51, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0256, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0256, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9744, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0791, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.12, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.12, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1143, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1143, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8857, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0096, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0858, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0858, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9142, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0189, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0887, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 810, "under_odds": -1330, "expected_home_runs": 0.1255, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1179, "model_over_probability": 0.1179, "model_under_probability": 0.8821, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1099, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9301, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1057, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8943, "edge_over": 0.008, "edge_under": -0.048, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.008, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8139, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; 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"hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0729, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0844, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0432, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.076, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0239, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0084, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0252, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.7086, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0139, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 113, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": 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null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0255, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0255, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9745, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0844, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.008400000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", 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"home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.036, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0354, "model_over_probability": 0.0354, "model_under_probability": 0.9646, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0446, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0446, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8852, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.29, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.989, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 102.2, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.887, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.14, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 5.63, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.13, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0473, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0471, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0354, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0168, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0134, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.071, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0881, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0666, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0327, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0329, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0797, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0446, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.009, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0329, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0081, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0117, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.035, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.0467, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0164, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 23, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, 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"hitter_id": 621439, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-27T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1807, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1653, "model_over_probability": 0.1653, "model_under_probability": 0.8347, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0452, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0452, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", 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Benintendi", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Jack Kochanowicz", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 640, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2187, "edge_over": 0.0836, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.096, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 41.4, "value_rank": 1, "value_row_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jack Leiter", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 470, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2146, "edge_over": 0.0392, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Lean", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.064, "environment_summary": "neutral", "value_score": 28.6, "value_rank": 2, "value_row_rank": 4, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Chris Paddack", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2051, "edge_over": 0.037, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Lean", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 0.887, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "value_score": 23.1, "value_rank": 3, "value_row_rank": 7, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 545, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2019, "edge_over": 0.0469, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Play", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.064, "environment_summary": "neutral", "value_score": 22.2, "value_rank": 4, "value_row_rank": 10, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [] }