{ "date": "2026-04-28", "generated_at": "2026-04-28T06:49:09.023004", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-04-28", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 315, "matched_count": 315, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 315, "matched_rows": 315, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 94, "under_recommendation_count": 14, "strong_count": 2, "play_count": 20, "lean_count": 86, "no_play_count": 207, "average_edge_over": 0.0031, "average_edge_under": -0.0408, "value_play_count": 1 }, "edge_count": 315, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "hitter_id": 660271, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": -270, "expected_home_runs": 0.2082, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.188, "model_over_probability": 0.188, "model_under_probability": 0.812, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7297, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2934, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7066, "edge_over": -0.115, "edge_under": 0.0823, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0823, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.906, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 47.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 46.52, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 53.56, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 37.13, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 38.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2112, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1815, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0046, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1302, "hr_prob_refined": 0.071, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1562, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1862, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.162, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1468, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0918, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1215, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2984, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1728, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1168, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1309, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.141, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0419, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1256, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1498, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0665, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 38.33, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 38.33, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1562, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1562, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8438, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.1468, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2082, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2082, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1309, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1302, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1302, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8698, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1728, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04189999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": -270, "expected_home_runs": 0.2161, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1943, "model_over_probability": 0.1943, "model_under_probability": 0.8057, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7297, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2934, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7066, "edge_over": -0.1087, "edge_under": 0.076, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.076, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.093, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.947, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 48.88, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 35.57, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 37.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2052, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.18, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0039, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1301, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0694, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1598, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1886, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1639, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1432, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0978, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.123, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2991, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1729, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1144, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1309, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1391, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.042, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1261, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0655, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 5, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 37.06, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 37.06, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1598, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1598, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8402000000000001, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.1432, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2161, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2161, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1309, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1301, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1301, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8699, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1729, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04200000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "hitter_id": 660271, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": -295, "expected_home_runs": 0.2082, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.188, "model_over_probability": 0.188, "model_under_probability": 0.812, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7468, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2825, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7175, "edge_over": -0.1061, "edge_under": 0.0652, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0652, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.906, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 47.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 46.52, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 53.56, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 37.13, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 38.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2112, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1815, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1301, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0707, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1562, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1862, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.162, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1379, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0829, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1126, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2901, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.164, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1079, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.122, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1321, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.042, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1261, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1498, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0667, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", 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"fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0836, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0836, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9164, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1517, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.027200000000000002, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "hitter_id": 663728, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 275, "under_odds": -330, "expected_home_runs": 0.213, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1918, "model_over_probability": 0.1918, "model_under_probability": 0.8082, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7674, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2579, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7421, "edge_over": -0.0749, "edge_under": 0.0408, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0408, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9667, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.15, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.904, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 40.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 33.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 30.79, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 39.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 32.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1613, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1402, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0027, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1009, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0541, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1589, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1285, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1202, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1078, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1054, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1265, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.264, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1658, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1382, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1331, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1465, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0327, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0982, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0514, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard 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"hitter_id": 573262, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": -900, "expected_home_runs": 0.1992, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1806, "model_over_probability": 0.1806, "model_under_probability": 0.8194, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1345, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8655, "edge_over": 0.0407, "edge_under": -0.0806, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0407, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.088, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.017, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 19.75, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.31, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2066, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1804, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0675, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1855, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1614, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0101, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0667, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0405, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1393, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0107, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0456, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0322, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0215, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1287, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2453, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", 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"pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": -885, "expected_home_runs": 0.1915, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1743, "model_over_probability": 0.1743, "model_under_probability": 0.8257, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8985, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1363, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8637, "edge_over": 0.0325, "edge_under": -0.0728, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0325, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "bench_platoon", "estimated_start_probability": 0.78, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.139, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.017, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 5.97, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 6.87, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.07, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2044, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2498, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0801, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2372, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2602, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2319, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0954, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0626, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.108, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1414, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0531, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1184, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1179, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0901, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0648, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1945, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.574, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", 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"xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.09, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.937, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 2.52, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1668, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1705, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1292, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0595, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0725, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1839, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1602, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0608, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0335, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0372, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1329, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0041, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0506, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0388, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0269, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1288, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1978, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.059, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", 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"hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1697, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1561, "model_over_probability": 0.1561, "model_under_probability": 0.8439, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0228, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0228, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", 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"valinor_prob_under": 0.9318, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0467, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.055900000000000005, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 505, "under_odds": -670, "expected_home_runs": 0.2079, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1877, "model_over_probability": 0.1877, "model_under_probability": 0.8123, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1653, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8701, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1596, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8404, "edge_over": 0.0224, "edge_under": -0.0578, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0224, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9853, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.49, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.926, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.947, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.58, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 12.75, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.41, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.88, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1992, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1786, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0661, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1259, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1914, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1663, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0394, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0339, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0133, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1646, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.036, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0261, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0068, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.001, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0429, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1286, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1952, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0654, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", 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"rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1293, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1293, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8707, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.036, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04619999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "hitter_id": 518692, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.213, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1918, "model_over_probability": 0.1918, "model_under_probability": 0.8082, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0223, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0223, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, 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"timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": -680, "expected_home_runs": 0.2015, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1825, "model_over_probability": 0.1825, "model_under_probability": 0.8175, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8718, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8428, "edge_over": 0.0199, "edge_under": -0.0543, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0199, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9543, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.084, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.88, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.85, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.49, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1274, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1152, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0837, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0425, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1052, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1112, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0574, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0352, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0474, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.162, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0789, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0486, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0512, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0514, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0277, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0831, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3995, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": 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minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9543, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.084, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.88, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 12.85, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 8.73, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.49, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1274, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1152, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0837, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0425, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1052, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1112, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0574, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0352, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0474, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.162, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0789, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0486, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0512, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0514, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 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"hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0332, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.008, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0069, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0093, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0316, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0708, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0707, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0468, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.072, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0796, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0484, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0092, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0003, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0065, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Best shortlist segment in the audit; safest full-exposure read.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 200, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 0.84, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 0.84, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0093, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0093, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9907, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0707, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0333, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0333, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 1.0, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.08, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Full Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0001, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0001, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0799, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0093, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Kris Bubic", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 965, "under_odds": -1605, "expected_home_runs": 0.1114, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1054, "model_over_probability": 0.1054, "model_under_probability": 0.8946, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0939, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0907, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9093, "edge_over": 0.0115, "edge_under": -0.0467, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0115, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.897, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.84, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.939, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.978, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 4.16, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0563, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0101, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0115, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0219, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0469, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0771, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.072, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0376, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0838, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0935, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0938, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.047, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0939, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0168, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0003, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.8213, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0111, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 205, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 1.59, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 1.59, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0219, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0219, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9781, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.072, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1114, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1114, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 1.0, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0939, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0001, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0001, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0938, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0219, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "hitter_id": 670623, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -745, "expected_home_runs": 0.1854, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1692, "model_over_probability": 0.1692, "model_under_probability": 0.8308, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8817, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1525, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8475, "edge_over": 0.0105, "edge_under": -0.0509, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0105, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8937, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.97, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.094, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.943, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 18.95, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 11.49, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.16, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.82, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1541, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1457, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0525, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.107, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1589, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1409, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0517, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0046, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.013, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1581, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0519, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0002, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0165, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0178, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0976, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0519, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 209, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.82, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 12.82, "palantir_prob_over": 0.107, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.107, "palantir_prob_under": 0.893, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0517, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1854, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1854, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0165, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1068, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1068, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8932, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0519, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03539999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "hitter_id": 592626, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": 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"projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.18, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.901, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 29.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.36, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 20.82, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 28.53, 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"palantir_gap_pct": -0.0738, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1114, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1114, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 1.0, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0957, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0001, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0001, 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"pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.901, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.95, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.71, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1981, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1837, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0669, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1445, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1974, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1714, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0264, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0272, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0128, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1702, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0364, 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0.1445, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1445, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8555, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0264, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.199, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.199, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0082, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1345, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1345, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8654999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0364, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0446, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "hitter_id": 593871, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.199, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1805, "model_over_probability": 0.1805, "model_under_probability": 0.8195, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0096, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0096, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9109, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.18, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.901, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 21.08, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 13.95, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.71, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1981, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1837, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0669, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1445, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1974, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1714, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0264, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0272, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0128, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1702, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0364, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0265, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0005, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0446, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1647, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0663, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 220, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 14.9, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 14.9, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1445, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1445, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8555, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0264, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.199, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.199, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0082, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1345, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1345, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8654999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0364, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0446, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Joc Pederson", "hitter_id": 592626, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": -780, "expected_home_runs": 0.1714, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1575, "model_over_probability": 0.1575, "model_under_probability": 0.8425, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8864, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1432, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8568, "edge_over": 0.0094, "edge_under": -0.0439, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0094, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": 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"value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 0.84, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 0.84, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0093, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0093, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9907, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0707, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0333, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0333, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 1.0, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.08, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Full Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0001, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0001, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0799, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0093, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_id": 547180, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2263, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2025, "model_over_probability": 0.2025, "model_under_probability": 0.7975, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0064, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0064, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.983, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.58, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.032, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.965, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.75, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.63, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.15, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.73, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1934, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1772, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0009, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0651, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1406, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1915, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1664, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0555, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0027, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0189, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1952, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0668, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0046, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.024, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0297, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0428, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1284, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0604, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0642, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 256, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.73, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.73, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1406, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1406, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8593999999999999, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0555, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2263, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2263, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.024, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1293, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1293, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8707, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0668, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.042800000000000005, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "hitter_id": 605141, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Janson Junk", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": -690, "expected_home_runs": 0.1851, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.169, "model_over_probability": 0.169, "model_under_probability": 0.831, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8734, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1569, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8431, "edge_over": 0.0064, "edge_under": -0.0424, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0064, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9413, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.14, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.994, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.906, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 22.98, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 10.26, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1688, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1486, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1068, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0555, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0981, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1579, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1401, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0645, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0062, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.014, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.162, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0558, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0047, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0204, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0225, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0354, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1062, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1613, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0549, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 258, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.83, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 12.83, "palantir_prob_over": 0.0981, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0981, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9019, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0645, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1851, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1851, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0204, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1068, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1068, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8932, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0558, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.044099999999999986, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 820, "under_odds": -1255, "expected_home_runs": 0.1223, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1151, "model_over_probability": 0.1151, "model_under_probability": 0.8849, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1087, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9262, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.105, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.895, "edge_over": 0.0064, "edge_under": -0.0413, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0064, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8139, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.132, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.904, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 2.53, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0432, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0317, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0211, "hr_prob_refined": 0.013, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.026, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0651, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0853, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0827, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0655, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.077, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1084, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0876, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0436, 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"fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1345, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1345, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8654999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0364, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0446, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_id": 547180, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": -515, "expected_home_runs": 0.2263, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2025, "model_over_probability": 0.2025, "model_under_probability": 0.7975, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8374, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1912, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8088, "edge_over": 0.0045, "edge_under": -0.0399, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0045, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.983, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.58, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.032, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.965, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 23.75, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 14.63, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.15, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.73, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1934, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1772, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1293, 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"hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0598, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1894, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.09, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0615, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0569, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0701, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0331, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0994, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2081, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0444, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", 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"fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1005, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1005, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8995, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.09, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03309999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_id": 665742, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": -405, "expected_home_runs": 0.2251, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2016, "model_over_probability": 0.2016, "model_under_probability": 0.7984, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.802, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7711, "edge_over": -0.0365, "edge_under": -0.0036, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0036, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, 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"projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9512, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.46, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.926, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.947, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 25.64, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.45, 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"rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1293, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1293, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8707, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0812, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.042800000000000005, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Chandler Simpson", "hitter_id": 802415, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0333, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0328, "model_over_probability": 0.0328, "model_under_probability": 0.9672, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0472, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0472, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9087, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.083, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 98.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.936, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 2.89, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 3.04, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 0.0, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.21, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 0.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0332, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.008, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0001, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0069, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0093, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0316, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0708, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0707, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0468, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.072, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.0796, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0484, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0092, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": -0.0001, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0003, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "BALANCED", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Balanced", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0065, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "FULL_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Full Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady 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"fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Balanced", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Full Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0001, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0001, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0799, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0093, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Jacob 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"platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8041, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.73, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.093, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.947, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.15, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 28.18, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1835, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1755, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0014, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1294, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0634, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1506, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1834, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1597, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0716, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0387, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0467, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2208, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0928, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0388, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0501, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0625, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0427, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.128, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1971, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", 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"fangorn_projection": 0.1727, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1727, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0501, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "rebadged_research", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1294, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1294, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8706, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0928, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "RF-safe logistic anchor", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.042700000000000016, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Junior Caminero", "hitter_id": 691406, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-04-28T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 355, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1686, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1552, "model_over_probability": 0.1552, "model_under_probability": 0.8448, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2198, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0646, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0646, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8473, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.89, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.083, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.936, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": 24.88, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 24.41, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.62, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.05, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1811, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1748, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0013, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1294, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0629, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1756, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1899, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.165, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0442, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0387, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.045, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.2185, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0904, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0299, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0477, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0548, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", 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