{ "date": "2026-06-02", "generated_at": "2026-06-02T08:02:14.852844", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-06-02", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 327, "matched_count": 327, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 327, "matched_rows": 327, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 137, "under_recommendation_count": 7, "strong_count": 7, "play_count": 54, "lean_count": 83, "no_play_count": 183, "average_edge_over": 0.0118, "average_edge_under": -0.0495, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 327, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "hitter_id": 630105, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 905, "under_odds": -1450, "expected_home_runs": 0.1923, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1749, "model_over_probability": 0.1749, "model_under_probability": 0.8251, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0995, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9355, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0961, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9039, "edge_over": 0.0754, "edge_under": -0.1104, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0754, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9469, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.159, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.02, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.92, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.92, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1749, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.15, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1487, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1617, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1484, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1334, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0622, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0754, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0505, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0427, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0489, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0427, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0339, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1646, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1487, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.92, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.92, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1617, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1617, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8383, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0622, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1923, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1923, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0427, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.019500000000000017, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "hitter_id": 630105, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 890, "under_odds": -1535, "expected_home_runs": 0.1923, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1749, "model_over_probability": 0.1749, "model_under_probability": 0.8251, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.101, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9388, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0971, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9029, "edge_over": 0.0739, "edge_under": -0.1137, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0739, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9469, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.159, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.02, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.92, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.92, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1749, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.15, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1487, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1617, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1484, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1334, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0607, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0739, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.049, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0412, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0474, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0412, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0324, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1646, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1487, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 5, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.92, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.92, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1617, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1617, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8383, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0607, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1923, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1923, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0412, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.019500000000000017, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "hitter_id": 630105, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 890, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1923, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1749, "model_over_probability": 0.1749, "model_under_probability": 0.8251, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.101, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0739, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0739, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9469, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.159, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.02, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.92, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.92, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1749, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.15, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1487, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1617, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1484, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1334, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0607, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0739, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.049, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0412, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0474, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0412, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0324, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1646, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1487, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 6, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.92, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.92, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1617, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1617, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8383, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0607, 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"valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.019199999999999995, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "hitter_id": 672695, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 965, "under_odds": -1760, "expected_home_runs": 0.1702, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1565, "model_over_probability": 0.1565, 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"damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 15, "edge_direction_rank": 10, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": 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"active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.22, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.99, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2059, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1482, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1496, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1631, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1423, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1292, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0192, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.062, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0043, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0084, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0016, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0084, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0147, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3339, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", 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"fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1597, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0517, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, 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"recommended_edge": 0.057, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9649, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.08, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.958, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1585, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1396, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1386, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1334, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.13, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1211, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0319, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.057, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0381, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0321, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0285, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0321, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0196, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", 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"suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 27, "edge_direction_rank": 22, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.78, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.78, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1334, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1334, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8666, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0319, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1726, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1726, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0321, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.00020000000000000573, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jakob Marsee", "hitter_id": 805300, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 855, "under_odds": -1340, "expected_home_runs": 0.1759, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1613, "model_over_probability": 0.1613, "model_under_probability": 0.8387, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1047, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9306, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1011, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8989, "edge_over": 0.0566, "edge_under": -0.0919, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0566, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8618, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.14, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.01, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.57, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.57, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1613, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1585, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1581, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1732, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1743, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1525, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0685, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0566, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0538, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0526, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0696, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0526, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0478, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0886, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1581, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the 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"Jonathan India", "hitter_id": 663697, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 870, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1726, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1585, "model_over_probability": 0.1585, "model_under_probability": 0.8415, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1031, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0554, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0554, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, 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"2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2041, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1846, "model_over_probability": 0.1846, "model_under_probability": 0.8154, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0428, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0428, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8784, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.91, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.1, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.045, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.01, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1846, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1498, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1507, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1698, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1649, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1453, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.028, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0428, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.008, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0004, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0231, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0004, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0035, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1171, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", 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"hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 72, "edge_direction_rank": 60, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.5, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.5, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1698, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1698, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8302, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.028, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2041, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2041, 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0.027600000000000013, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_id": 670770, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 725, "under_odds": -1055, "expected_home_runs": 0.179, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1639, "model_over_probability": 0.1639, "model_under_probability": 0.8361, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1212, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9134, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8829, "edge_over": 0.0427, "edge_under": -0.0773, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0427, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8432, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.04, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_split_penalty; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.04, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.958, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1639, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1423, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1412, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1499, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.139, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.127, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0287, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0427, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0211, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0143, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0178, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0143, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0058, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1412, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 73, "edge_direction_rank": 61, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.61, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.61, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1499, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1499, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8501, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0287, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.179, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.179, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1355, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8645, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0143, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.014399999999999996, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -760, "expected_home_runs": 0.2214, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1986, "model_over_probability": 0.1986, "model_under_probability": 0.8014, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8837, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1502, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8498, "edge_over": 0.0424, "edge_under": -0.0823, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0424, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9883, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.7, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.04, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.958, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1986, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1838, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.183, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2046, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2095, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.182, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0484, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0424, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0276, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0229, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0533, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0258, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.062, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.183, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate 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0.025499999999999995, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2214, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1986, "model_over_probability": 0.1986, "model_under_probability": 0.8014, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0411, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0411, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9883, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.7, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.04, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.958, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, 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"fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.062, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.183, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 83, "edge_direction_rank": 70, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 20.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 20.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.2046, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2046, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7954, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0471, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2214, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2214, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0216, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.025499999999999995, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "hitter_id": 701762, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Jameson Taillon", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": -345, "expected_home_runs": 0.2031, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1838, "model_over_probability": 0.1838, "model_under_probability": 0.8162, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7753, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2534, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7466, "edge_over": -0.0794, "edge_under": 0.0409, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0409, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.946, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.53, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.165, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.9, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.61, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.38, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 30.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1838, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1268, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1143, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1282, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1805, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1206, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1152, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0827, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0794, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1364, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1489, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1426, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1489, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.148, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1143, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3674, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1282, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 84, "edge_direction_rank": 5, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": 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"fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0662, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", 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"handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.04, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.958, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.73, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.73, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1897, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1763, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1756, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1874, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1848, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1608, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0381, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0404, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.027, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0228, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0355, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0228, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0115, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0285, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1756, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", 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"production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0010000000000000009, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Mookie Betts", "hitter_id": 605141, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": -690, "expected_home_runs": 0.2182, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.196, "model_over_probability": 0.196, "model_under_probability": 0.804, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8734, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1569, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8431, "edge_over": 0.0334, "edge_under": -0.0694, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0334, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.14, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.085, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.1, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.196, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1779, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1769, 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663616, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 705, "under_odds": -1020, "expected_home_runs": 0.1715, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1576, "model_over_probability": 0.1576, "model_under_probability": 0.8424, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1242, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9107, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.12, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.88, "edge_over": 0.0334, "edge_under": -0.0683, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0334, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8658, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.037, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.977, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.97, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1576, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1558, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1555, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1708, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1498, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0331, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0334, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0316, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0308, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0308, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0256, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0921, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1555, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 117, "edge_direction_rank": 98, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.97, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.97, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1573, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1573, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8427, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0331, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, 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-0.0696, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0298, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.964, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.028, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.66, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1138, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1117, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1108, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1114, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.122, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1086, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.108, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.038, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0298, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0277, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0268, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0246, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0268, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.024, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", 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"valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.011200000000000002, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Heliot Ramos", "hitter_id": 671218, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": -825, "expected_home_runs": 0.1895, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1726, "model_over_probability": 0.1726, "model_under_probability": 0.8274, 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"environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.892, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.07, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.19, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.19, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1726, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1772, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1778, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1938, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2022, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1755, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0509, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0297, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0343, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0362, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0593, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0362, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0326, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1919, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1778, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 149, "edge_direction_rank": 128, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": 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"palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0001, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1789, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1789, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0063, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.006200000000000011, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_id": 645277, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": -905, "expected_home_runs": 0.1789, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1638, "model_over_probability": 0.1638, "model_under_probability": 0.8362, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9005, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1345, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8655, "edge_over": 0.0239, "edge_under": -0.0643, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0239, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9828, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.29, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.047, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.884, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.16, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.15, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1638, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1408, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1396, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1398, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1313, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1219, 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"palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.15, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.15, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1398, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1398, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8602, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0001, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1789, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1789, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1336, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8664000000000001, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0063, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter 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"valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.028599999999999987, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "hitter_id": 677951, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": 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"projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.958, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.18, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.18, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2065, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1804, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, 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"hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Jameson Taillon", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 980, "under_odds": -1795, "expected_home_runs": 0.1122, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1061, "model_over_probability": 0.1061, "model_under_probability": 0.8939, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0926, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9472, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0891, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9109, "edge_over": 0.0135, "edge_under": -0.0533, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0135, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.165, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.9, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.94, 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"palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1122, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1122, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 1.0, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0926, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": 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"shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.153, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1454, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1443, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1456, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1572, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1396, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0057, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0131, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0055, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0023, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0173, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0023, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0003, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.03, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1443, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 48, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 228, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", 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"production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.003400000000000014, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", 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"recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Chapman", "hitter_id": 656305, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": -655, "expected_home_runs": 0.1998, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1811, "model_over_probability": 0.1811, "model_under_probability": 0.8189, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8675, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1623, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8377, "edge_over": 0.013, "edge_under": -0.0486, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.013, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", 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present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 230, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.85, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.85, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1721, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1721, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8279, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.004, 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"valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Yastrzemski", "hitter_id": 573262, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 610, "under_odds": -845, "expected_home_runs": 0.166, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.153, "model_over_probability": 0.153, "model_under_probability": 0.847, "model_push_probability": 0.0, 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"environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.884, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.153, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1454, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1443, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1456, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1572, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1396, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0048, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0122, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0046, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0014, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0164, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0014, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0012, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.03, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1443, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 48, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 235, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": 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null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.003400000000000014, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Yastrzemski", "hitter_id": 573262, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": 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"availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.047, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.884, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.153, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1454, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1443, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1456, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1572, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1396, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0048, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0122, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0046, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0014, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0164, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0014, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0012, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.03, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", 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"play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.983, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.58, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.071, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.02, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.15, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2079, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1807, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1793, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.209, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1967, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1708, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0129, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0118, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0154, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.024, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.024, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0253, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0604, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1793, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 238, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 25.15, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 25.15, "palantir_prob_over": 0.209, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.209, "palantir_prob_under": 0.791, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0129, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2331, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2331, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.024, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.03689999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2032, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1839, "model_over_probability": 0.1839, "model_under_probability": 0.8161, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0115, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0115, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8671, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.04, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.205, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.972, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.44, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.84, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1839, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1426, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1436, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1487, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1365, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1253, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0237, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0115, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0298, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0388, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0359, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0388, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0471, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.278, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1436, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 240, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", 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"everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8101, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.205, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.972, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1698, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1714, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 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"valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.019100000000000006, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": -690, "expected_home_runs": 0.1935, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1759, "model_over_probability": 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.087, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.958, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.56, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1759, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1782, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1785, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1947, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2171, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1889, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.028, 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"home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 820, "under_odds": -1255, "expected_home_runs": 0.1251, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1176, "model_over_probability": 0.1176, "model_under_probability": 0.8824, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1087, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9262, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.105, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.895, "edge_over": 0.0089, "edge_under": -0.0438, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0089, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8142, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.037, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.977, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.55, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0339, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1176, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0439, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0339, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0506, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1262, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0665, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0339, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0859, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0175, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0089, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0648, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0748, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0422, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0748, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0228, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0339, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, 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0.1721, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8279, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0114, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2128, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2128, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0413, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": 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"under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1935, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1759, "model_over_probability": 0.1759, "model_under_probability": 0.8241, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0078, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0078, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9018, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.18, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; 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0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1889, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0266, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0078, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0101, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.011, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.049, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0208, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2648, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1785, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter 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"model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 23.5, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 23.5, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1947, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1947, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8053, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0266, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1935, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1935, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.011, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.015600000000000003, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 810, "under_odds": -1330, "expected_home_runs": 0.1251, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1176, "model_over_probability": 0.1176, "model_under_probability": 0.8824, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1099, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9301, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1057, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8943, "edge_over": 0.0077, "edge_under": -0.0477, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0077, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8142, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.037, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.977, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.55, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0339, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1176, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0439, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0339, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0506, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1262, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0665, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0339, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0859, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0163, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0077, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.066, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.076, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0434, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.076, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.024, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, 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"pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.884, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1687, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1711, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1714, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.161, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1824, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1589, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0085, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0008, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0016, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0026, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0129, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0026, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0106, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.09, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1714, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": 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null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.010999999999999996, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2251, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2016, "model_over_probability": 0.2016, "model_under_probability": 0.7984, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0025, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0025, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.873, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.028, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 29.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.86, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 27.86, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2016, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1792, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.178, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1945, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1874, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.163, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0096, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0025, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0249, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.032, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0167, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.032, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0411, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0783, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.178, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, 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null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.022400000000000003, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Willy Adames", "hitter_id": 642715, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.1993, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1807, "model_over_probability": 0.1807, "model_under_probability": 0.8193, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1774, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8226, "edge_over": -0.0028, "edge_under": -0.0314, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0028, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.41, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.068, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.892, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.26, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 28.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 28.26, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1807, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1514, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1499, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1883, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.164, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1446, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0048, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0028, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0321, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0413, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0195, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0413, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0389, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1015, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", 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"projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.19, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 30.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1779, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1507, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1493, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1657, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1491, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1339, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0471, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0349, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0621, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0706, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0637, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0706, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0789, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1761, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1493, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 301, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 30.51, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 30.51, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1657, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1657, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8343, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0471, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1959, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1959, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0706, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.023499999999999993, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Jameson Taillon", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": -505, "expected_home_runs": 0.1857, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1695, "model_over_probability": 0.1695, "model_under_probability": 0.8305, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8347, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1965, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8035, "edge_over": -0.0346, "edge_under": -0.0042, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0042, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8714, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.06, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.165, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.9, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.05, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 27.05, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1695, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1487, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1476, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1698, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1477, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1329, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0343, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0346, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0554, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0619, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0564, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0619, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0712, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1396, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1476, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 300, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 27.05, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 27.05, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1698, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1698, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8302, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0343, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1857, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1857, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0619, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.027600000000000013, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "hitter_id": 700932, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -650, "expected_home_runs": 0.1856, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1694, "model_over_probability": 0.1694, "model_under_probability": 0.8306, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8667, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1671, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8329, "edge_over": -0.0045, "edge_under": -0.0361, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0045, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.873, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.028, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1694, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1487, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1476, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1784, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1622, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1433, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0045, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0045, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0252, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0317, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0117, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0317, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0306, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0465, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1476, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 299, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1784, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1784, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8216, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0045, 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"MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 31, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 295, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", 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"home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2075, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1874, "model_over_probability": 0.1874, "model_under_probability": 0.8126, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0049, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0049, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8591, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.1, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.205, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.972, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.47, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.47, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1874, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1816, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1808, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.201, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2321, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2031, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0087, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0049, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0107, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0132, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0398, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0108, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2728, 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"Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 294, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.47, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.47, "palantir_prob_over": 0.201, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.201, "palantir_prob_under": 0.7989999999999999, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0087, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2075, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2075, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0132, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.021900000000000003, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "George Springer", "hitter_id": 543807, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -645, "expected_home_runs": 0.1848, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1687, "model_over_probability": 0.1687, "model_under_probability": 0.8313, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8658, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1673, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8327, "edge_over": -0.0052, "edge_under": -0.0345, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0052, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9138, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.41, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.068, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.884, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.13, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.97, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1687, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1485, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1475, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1749, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1631, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.144, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.001, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0052, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0254, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0317, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0317, 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"home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 340, "under_odds": -420, "expected_home_runs": 0.2207, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.198, "model_over_probability": 0.198, "model_under_probability": 0.802, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2273, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8077, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2196, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7804, "edge_over": -0.0293, "edge_under": -0.0057, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0057, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 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"edge_under": -0.0058, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0058, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8404, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.037, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.977, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, 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"lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8813, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.28, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.047, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.884, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.17, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.17, 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"fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1721, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0483, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, 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"shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.47, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.47, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1874, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1816, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1808, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.201, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2321, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2031, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0068, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0068, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0126, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0151, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0379, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0151, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0089, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2728, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1808, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", 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"lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8028, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.64, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.037, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.7, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.977, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.48, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.48, 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"source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1694, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1487, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1476, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1784, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1622, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1433, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0014, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0076, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0283, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0348, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0148, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0348, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0337, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0465, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1476, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", 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"fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0213, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.014000000000000012, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "hitter_id": 686948, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -740, "expected_home_runs": 0.1596, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1475, "model_over_probability": 0.1475, "model_under_probability": 0.8525, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.881, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1526, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8474, "edge_over": -0.0112, "edge_under": -0.0285, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0112, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.047, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.884, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.26, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1475, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1438, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1432, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1266, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1606, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1421, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0321, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0112, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0149, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0165, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0019, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0165, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0166, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", 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null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1596, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1596, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0165, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.015600000000000003, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": -515, "expected_home_runs": 0.1912, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.174, "model_over_probability": 0.174, "model_under_probability": 0.826, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8374, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1912, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8088, "edge_over": -0.024, "edge_under": -0.0114, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0114, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8117, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.205, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.972, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.65, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.174, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1776, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1781, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1787, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1976, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1715, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0193, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.024, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0204, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0189, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0004, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0189, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0265, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1514, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1781, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 242, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", 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"valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.00040000000000001146, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_id": 669394, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.1752, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1607, "model_over_probability": 0.1607, "model_under_probability": 0.8393, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.183, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.817, "edge_over": -0.0298, "edge_under": -0.0114, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0114, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8578, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.92, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.037, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.961, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.32, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.91, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.91, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1607, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1401, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.139, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1226, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1252, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1181, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0679, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0298, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0504, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0569, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0653, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0569, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0724, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2367, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", 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"2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1596, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1475, "model_over_probability": 0.1475, "model_under_probability": 0.8525, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0125, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0125, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", 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"hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1432, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1266, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1606, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1421, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0334, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0125, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0162, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0178, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0178, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0179, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, 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"historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.085, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.93, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1777, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1507, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1493, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1616, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1492, 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"valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.03620000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Daulton Varsho", "hitter_id": 662139, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", 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"projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.068, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.884, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.44, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1601, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1414, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1405, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.148, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1409, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1283, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0259, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0138, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0325, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0384, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.033, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0384, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0456, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1295, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", 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"fangorn_prob_under": 0.8645, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0384, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.012499999999999983, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", 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"projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.26, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1475, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1438, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1432, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1266, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1606, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1421, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0347, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0138, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0175, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0191, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0007, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0191, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0192, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable 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"Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 224, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.26, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.26, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1266, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1266, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8734, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0347, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1596, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1596, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0191, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.015600000000000003, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Max Muncy", "hitter_id": 571970, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1956, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1777, "model_over_probability": 0.1777, "model_under_probability": 0.8223, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0146, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0146, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8987, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.85, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.085, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.93, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1777, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1507, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1493, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1616, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1492, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.134, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0307, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0146, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0416, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0501, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0431, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0501, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0583, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1738, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1493, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 220, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.93, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.93, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1616, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1616, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8384, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0307, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1956, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1956, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0501, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.0194, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "hitter_id": 663586, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": -685, "expected_home_runs": 0.1664, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1533, "model_over_probability": 0.1533, "model_under_probability": 0.8467, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1615, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8385, "edge_over": -0.0148, "edge_under": -0.0259, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0148, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9116, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.047, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.884, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.31, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1533, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1237, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1143, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1221, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1228, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1212, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1156, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0453, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0148, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0444, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0538, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0469, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0538, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0525, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1143, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1221, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 219, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.54, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.54, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1228, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1228, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8772, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0453, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1664, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1664, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1143, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1143, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8857, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0538, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.008500000000000008, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_id": 670242, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": -535, "expected_home_runs": 0.1894, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1725, "model_over_probability": 0.1725, "model_under_probability": 0.8275, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1903, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8097, "edge_over": -0.0255, "edge_under": -0.015, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.015, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8404, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.037, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.977, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1725, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1722, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1722, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1843, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1604, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.028, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0255, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0258, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0259, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0137, 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"palantir_hr_prob": 0.1959, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8041, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0061, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2061, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2061, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1721, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8279, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0299, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.023799999999999988, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_id": 553993, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": -450, "expected_home_runs": 0.2207, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.198, "model_over_probability": 0.198, "model_under_probability": 0.802, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8182, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2136, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7864, "edge_over": -0.0242, "edge_under": -0.0162, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0162, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.04, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.958, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 29.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.198, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1522, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1533, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1784, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1621, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1433, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0438, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0242, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.07, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.08, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0601, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0789, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1985, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1533, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 202, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 29.39, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 29.39, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1784, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1784, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8216, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0438, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2207, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2207, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1422, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.08, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.03620000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Austin 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"lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9116, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.047, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.884, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.31, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1533, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1237, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1143, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1221, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1228, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1212, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1156, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0467, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0162, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0458, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0552, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0483, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0552, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0539, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1143, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1221, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 200, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.54, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.54, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1228, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1228, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8772, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0467, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1664, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1664, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1143, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1143, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8857, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0552, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.008500000000000008, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "hitter_id": 663586, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1664, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1533, "model_over_probability": 0.1533, "model_under_probability": 0.8467, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0162, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0162, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9116, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.047, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.884, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.31, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1533, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1237, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1143, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1221, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1228, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1212, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1156, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0467, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0162, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0458, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0552, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0483, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0552, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0539, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1143, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1221, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, 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null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.029, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1745, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1745, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1355, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8645, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0415, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.012499999999999983, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Lowe", "hitter_id": 664040, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2061, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1862, "model_over_probability": 0.1862, "model_under_probability": 0.8138, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0179, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0179, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.928, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.18, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.031, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.957, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.55, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1862, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1764, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1749, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1959, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1831, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, 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"hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0689, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0728, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.081, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2827, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1462, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support 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"valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.026499999999999996, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, 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"opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.205, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.972, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.65, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.174, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1776, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1781, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1787, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1976, 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"Marcell Ozuna", "hitter_id": 542303, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2093, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1888, "model_over_probability": 0.1888, "model_under_probability": 0.8112, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0217, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0217, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": 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0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1888, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1451, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1462, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.162, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1394, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1273, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0485, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0217, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0654, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.075, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0711, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.075, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0832, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2827, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1462, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 177, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 25.34, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 25.34, "palantir_prob_over": 0.162, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.162, "palantir_prob_under": 0.838, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0485, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2093, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2093, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1355, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8645, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.075, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.026499999999999996, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1912, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.174, "model_over_probability": 0.174, "model_under_probability": 0.826, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, 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"hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.65, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.174, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1776, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1781, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1787, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1976, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1715, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0174, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0221, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0185, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.017, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0015, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.017, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0246, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1514, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1781, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage 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"hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.00040000000000001146, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Rafael Devers", "hitter_id": 646240, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 395, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1949, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1771, "model_over_probability": 0.1771, "model_under_probability": 0.8229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.202, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0249, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0249, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9407, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.068, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.892, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 30.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.02, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 28.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 28.42, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1771, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1505, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1491, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1686, 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"fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 163, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, 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"valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.03620000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Xavier Edwards", "hitter_id": 669364, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0545, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.053, "model_over_probability": 0.053, "model_under_probability": 0.947, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, 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"hr_multiplier": 1.01, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 3.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.14, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 5.63, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 5.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.053, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1004, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1108, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0993, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0972, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1055, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1063, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0172, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.027, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0204, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0308, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0255, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0308, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0263, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1108, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 1.0467, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0993, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 159, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 5.63, 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"valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.013600000000000001, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_id": 670242, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1894, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1725, "model_over_probability": 0.1725, "model_under_probability": 0.8275, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0275, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0275, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8404, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.037, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.977, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1725, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1722, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1722, 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"CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 158, "edge_direction_rank": null, 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"hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0547, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0697, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0755, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.135, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1628, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some 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"hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.01469999999999999, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Burger", "hitter_id": 669394, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-06-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, 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"opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.037, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.961, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.32, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.91, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.91, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1607, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1401, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, "hr_valinor_model_version": null, "hr_prob_refined": 0.139, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1226, 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"projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.107, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.901, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 37.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 35.66, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 35.66, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1918, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1829, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": null, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": null, 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"fangorn_prob_over": 0.1791, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8209, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1334, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": null, "valinor_hr_prob": null, "valinor_prob_under": null, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": null, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 2, "model_spread": 0.019199999999999995, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null } ], "value_plays": [ { "hitter_name": "Freddie Freeman", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 495, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.22, "edge_over": 0.0519, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Play", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "environment_summary": "neutral", "value_score": 33.4, "value_rank": 1, "value_row_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 520, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2171, "edge_over": 0.0558, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Play", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.02, "environment_summary": "neutral", "value_score": 32.1, "value_rank": 2, "value_row_rank": 4, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 595, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2059, "edge_over": 0.062, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Play", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "environment_summary": "neutral", "value_score": 28.4, "value_rank": 3, "value_row_rank": 7, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 575, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2027, "edge_over": 0.0546, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Play", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.02, "environment_summary": "neutral", "value_score": 24.8, "value_rank": 4, "value_row_rank": 10, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2065, "edge_over": 0.0263, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Lean", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 0.958, "environment_summary": "neutral", "value_score": 22.2, "value_rank": 5, "value_row_rank": 13, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [] }