{ "date": "2026-07-26", "generated_at": "2026-07-26T23:44:54.040423", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-07-26", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 312, "matched_count": 312, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 312, "matched_rows": 312, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 164, "under_recommendation_count": 6, "strong_count": 42, "play_count": 82, "lean_count": 46, "no_play_count": 142, "average_edge_over": 0.0285, "average_edge_under": -0.0662, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 312, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-07-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 645, "under_odds": -905, "expected_home_runs": 0.2697, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2364, "model_over_probability": 0.2364, "model_under_probability": 0.7636, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9005, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1297, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8703, "edge_over": 0.1022, "edge_under": -0.1369, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1022, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.162, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.189, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.03, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2364, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.203, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1957, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1382, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2038, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2252, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2364, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2073, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.091, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1022, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0688, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0615, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0187, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1022, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0615, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0731, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1957, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2038, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 54.0, "value_rank": 1, "value_box_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1297, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.03, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.03, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1662968978791447, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2252, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8337031021208553, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.03659689787914469, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2697, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2697, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1697770787009255, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1957, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8302229212990745, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0400770787009255, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1155, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1155, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8845, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0187, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.054277078700925505, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2252, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.091, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1957, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260719T113406Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0615 }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-07-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 645, "under_odds": -960, "expected_home_runs": 0.2697, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2364, "model_over_probability": 0.2364, "model_under_probability": 0.7636, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9057, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1291, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8709, "edge_over": 0.1022, "edge_under": -0.1421, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1022, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.162, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.189, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.03, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2364, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.203, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1957, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1382, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2038, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2252, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2364, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2073, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.091, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1022, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0688, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0615, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0187, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1022, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0615, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0731, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1957, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2038, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 54.0, "value_rank": 2, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1291, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.03, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.03, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1662968978791447, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2252, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8337031021208553, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.03719689787914471, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2697, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2697, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1697770787009255, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1957, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8302229212990745, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.04067707870092552, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1155, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1155, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8845, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0187, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.054277078700925505, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2252, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.091, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1957, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260719T113406Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0615 }, { "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-07-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2697, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2364, "model_over_probability": 0.2364, "model_under_probability": 0.7636, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1013, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1013, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.162, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.189, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.03, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1957, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2364, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.203, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1957, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1382, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2038, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2252, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2364, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2073, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0901, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1013, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0679, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0606, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0196, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1013, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0606, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0722, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1957, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2038, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", 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"valinor_prob_over": 0.0833, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0833, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9167, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0193, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0719814241915289, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1636, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260719T113406Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "hitter_id": 650489, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-07-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 885, "under_odds": -1400, "expected_home_runs": 0.2056, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1858, "model_over_probability": 0.1858, "model_under_probability": 0.8142, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1015, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0981, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9019, "edge_over": 0.0843, "edge_under": -0.1191, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0843, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8693, 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"fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2056, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2056, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13372350259009824, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8662764974099018, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.035623502590098235, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0785, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0785, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9215, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, 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"fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260719T113406Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0572 }, { "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_id": 645277, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-07-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 610, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2304, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2058, "model_over_probability": 0.2058, "model_under_probability": 0.7942, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1408, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.065, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.065, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, 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null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.157, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.157, "valinor_prob_under": 0.843, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0162, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03494085421548611, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1763, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260719T113406Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "hitter_id": 682177, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-07-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 800, "under_odds": -1305, "expected_home_runs": 0.1931, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1756, "model_over_probability": 0.1756, "model_under_probability": 0.8244, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1111, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9288, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1068, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8932, "edge_over": 0.0645, "edge_under": -0.1044, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0645, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.949, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.126, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 5.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.89, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1756, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1164, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1034, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1032, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1275, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1178, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1577, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1034, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0466, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0645, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0053, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0077, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0079, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0107, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0077, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0077, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, 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"valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0866, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0866, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9134, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0129, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.02755274329184805, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1406, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0411, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260719T113406Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0341 }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Yastrzemski", "hitter_id": 573262, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-07-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": -900, "expected_home_runs": 0.2138, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1925, "model_over_probability": 0.1925, "model_under_probability": 0.8075, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1345, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8655, "edge_over": 0.0526, "edge_under": -0.0925, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0526, "play_tier": "Play", 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"Jakob Marsee", "hitter_id": 805300, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-07-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 855, "under_odds": -1340, "expected_home_runs": 0.1706, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1568, "model_over_probability": 0.1568, "model_under_probability": 0.8432, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1047, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9306, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1011, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8989, "edge_over": 0.0521, "edge_under": -0.0874, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0521, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", 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"team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-07-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -740, "expected_home_runs": 0.2033, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184, "model_over_probability": 0.184, "model_under_probability": 0.816, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.881, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1526, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8474, "edge_over": 0.0253, "edge_under": -0.065, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0253, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, 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"palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1052, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1052, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.07433282029500125, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0908, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9256671797049988, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.00426717970499875, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1158, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1158, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8842, 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"market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 385, "under_odds": -485, "expected_home_runs": 0.2543, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2245, "model_over_probability": 0.2245, "model_under_probability": 0.7755, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2062, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8291, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1992, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8008, "edge_over": 0.0183, "edge_under": -0.0536, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0183, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", 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"two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.217, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1951, "model_over_probability": 0.1951, "model_under_probability": 0.8049, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8621, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1703, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8297, "edge_over": 0.0181, "edge_under": -0.0572, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0181, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9296, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", 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