{ "date": "2026-07-30", "generated_at": "2026-07-30T23:58:09.018545", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-07-30", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 204, "matched_count": 204, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 204, "matched_rows": 204, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 98, "under_recommendation_count": 6, "strong_count": 3, "play_count": 55, "lean_count": 46, "no_play_count": 100, "average_edge_over": 0.0201, "average_edge_under": -0.0577, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 204, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Jonathan India", "hitter_id": 663697, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 920, "under_odds": -1485, "expected_home_runs": 0.2003, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1815, "model_over_probability": 0.1815, "model_under_probability": 0.8185, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9369, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0947, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9053, "edge_over": 0.0835, "edge_under": -0.1184, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0835, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9178, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.92, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.161, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.15, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1815, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1516, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1397, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1584, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.15, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.153, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1492, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.134, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.055, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0835, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0536, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0442, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0417, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0512, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0442, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.036, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1931, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.15, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0947, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.78, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.78, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11350216733181503, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.153, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8864978326681849, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.01880216733181503, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2003, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2003, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12416022795830002, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8758397720416999, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.029460227958300014, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1397, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1397, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8603000000000001, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0417, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.026197832668184956, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.153, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.055, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260730T113456Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0442 }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan India", "hitter_id": 663697, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 905, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2003, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1815, "model_over_probability": 0.1815, "model_under_probability": 0.8185, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0995, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.082, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.082, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9178, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.92, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.161, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.15, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1815, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1516, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1397, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1584, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.15, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.153, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1492, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.134, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0535, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.082, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0521, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0427, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0402, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0497, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0427, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0345, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1931, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.15, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 5, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.78, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.78, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11350216733181503, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.153, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8864978326681849, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0535, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2003, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2003, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12416022795830002, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8758397720416999, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0427, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1397, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1397, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8603000000000001, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0402, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.026197832668184956, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.153, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260730T113456Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan India", "hitter_id": 663697, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 900, "under_odds": -1570, "expected_home_runs": 0.2003, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1815, "model_over_probability": 0.1815, "model_under_probability": 0.8185, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9401, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0961, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9039, "edge_over": 0.0815, "edge_under": -0.1216, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0815, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9178, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.92, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.161, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.15, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1815, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1516, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1397, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1584, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.15, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.153, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1492, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.134, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.053, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0815, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0516, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0422, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0397, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0492, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0422, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.034, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1931, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.15, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, 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