{ "date": "2026-08-02", "generated_at": "2026-08-02T23:50:13.802977", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-08-02", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 288, "matched_count": 288, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 288, "matched_rows": 288, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 142, "under_recommendation_count": 7, "strong_count": 30, "play_count": 58, "lean_count": 61, "no_play_count": 139, "average_edge_over": 0.023, "average_edge_under": -0.0607, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 288, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Jonathan India", "hitter_id": 663697, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 885, "under_odds": -1405, "expected_home_runs": 0.2097, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1892, "model_over_probability": 0.1892, "model_under_probability": 0.8108, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1015, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9336, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0981, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9019, "edge_over": 0.0877, "edge_under": -0.1228, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0877, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9649, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.08, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.162, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1892, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1506, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1205, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1425, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1516, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1596, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1557, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1386, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0581, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0877, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0491, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0407, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.019, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0542, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0407, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0371, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1931, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1516, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0981, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.78, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.78, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11855525687478857, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1596, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8814447431252115, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.020455256874788566, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2097, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2097, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.02921635726714221, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1205, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1205, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8795, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.019, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.008761100392353643, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1596, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0581, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0407 }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan India", "hitter_id": 663697, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 870, "under_odds": -1485, "expected_home_runs": 0.2097, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1892, "model_over_probability": 0.1892, "model_under_probability": 0.8108, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1031, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9369, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0991, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9009, "edge_over": 0.0861, "edge_under": -0.1261, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0861, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9649, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.08, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.162, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1892, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1506, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1205, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1425, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1516, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1596, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1557, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1386, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0565, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0861, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0475, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0391, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0174, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0526, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0391, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0355, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1931, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1516, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0991, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.78, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.78, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11855525687478857, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1596, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8814447431252115, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.01945525687478858, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2097, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2097, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.028216357267142222, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1205, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1205, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8795, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0174, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.008761100392353643, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1596, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0565, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0391 }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan India", "hitter_id": 663697, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 870, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2097, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1892, "model_over_probability": 0.1892, "model_under_probability": 0.8108, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1031, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0861, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0861, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9649, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.08, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.162, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1892, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1506, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1205, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1425, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1516, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1596, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1557, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1386, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0565, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0861, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0475, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0391, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0174, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0526, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0391, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0355, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1931, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1516, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.78, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.78, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11855525687478857, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1596, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8814447431252115, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0565, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2097, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2097, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0391, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1205, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1205, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8795, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0174, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.008761100392353643, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1596, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "hitter_id": 650489, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 885, "under_odds": -1400, "expected_home_runs": 0.2073, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1872, "model_over_probability": 0.1872, "model_under_probability": 0.8128, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1015, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0981, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9019, "edge_over": 0.0857, "edge_under": -0.1205, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0857, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8693, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.05, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.9, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1872, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1627, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.096, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1212, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1615, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1668, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1702, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1493, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0653, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0857, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0612, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0535, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0055, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0687, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0535, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0478, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1615, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 5, "edge_direction_rank": 4, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0981, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 9.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 9.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12402109277738732, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1668, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8759789072226127, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.025921092777387314, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2073, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2073, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13157369951952264, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8684263004804773, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.03347369951952263, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.096, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.096, "valinor_prob_under": 0.904, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0055, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.035573699519522634, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1668, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0653, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0535 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "hitter_id": 678662, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": -950, "expected_home_runs": 0.2409, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2141, "model_over_probability": 0.2141, "model_under_probability": 0.7859, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9048, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1255, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8745, "edge_over": 0.0842, "edge_under": -0.1189, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0842, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9204, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.05, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.67, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.09, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2141, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1551, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1081, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1318, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1565, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1912, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1484, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1334, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0613, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0842, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0252, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0123, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0218, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0185, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0123, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0035, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3331, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1565, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 7, "edge_direction_rank": 5, "value_score": 40.8, "value_rank": 4, "value_box_rank": 2, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1255, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 14.09, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 14.09, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14215059838941607, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1912, "palantir_prob_under": 0.857849401610584, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.01665059838941607, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2409, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2409, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0018163572671422157, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1081, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1081, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8919, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0218, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03405059838941607, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1912, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0613, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0123 }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "hitter_id": 678662, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": -1010, "expected_home_runs": 0.2409, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2141, "model_over_probability": 0.2141, "model_under_probability": 0.7859, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9099, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1249, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8751, "edge_over": 0.0842, "edge_under": -0.124, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0842, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9204, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.05, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.67, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.09, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2141, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1551, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1081, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1318, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1565, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1912, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1484, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1334, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0613, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0842, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0252, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0123, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0218, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0185, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0123, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0035, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3331, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1565, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 8, "edge_direction_rank": 6, "value_score": 40.8, "value_rank": 5, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1249, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 14.09, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 14.09, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14215059838941607, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1912, "palantir_prob_under": 0.857849401610584, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.017250598389416075, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2409, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2409, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.002416357267142219, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1081, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1081, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8919, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0218, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03405059838941607, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1912, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0613, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0123 }, { "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "hitter_id": 650489, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 870, "under_odds": -1480, "expected_home_runs": 0.2073, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1872, "model_over_probability": 0.1872, "model_under_probability": 0.8128, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1031, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9367, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0992, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9008, "edge_over": 0.0841, "edge_under": -0.1239, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0841, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8693, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.05, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.9, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1872, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1627, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.096, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1212, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1615, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1668, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1702, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1493, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0637, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0841, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0596, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0519, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0071, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0671, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0519, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0462, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1615, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 9, "edge_direction_rank": 7, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0992, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 9.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 9.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12402109277738732, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1668, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8759789072226127, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.024821092777387324, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2073, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2073, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13157369951952264, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8684263004804773, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.03237369951952264, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.096, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.096, "valinor_prob_under": 0.904, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0071, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.035573699519522634, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1668, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0637, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0519 }, { "hitter_name": "Willi Castro", "hitter_id": 650489, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 870, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2073, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1872, "model_over_probability": 0.1872, "model_under_probability": 0.8128, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1031, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0841, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0841, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8693, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.05, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.8, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.9, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1872, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1627, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.096, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1212, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1615, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1668, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1702, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1493, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0637, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0841, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0596, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0519, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0071, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0671, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0519, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0462, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1615, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 10, "edge_direction_rank": 8, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 9.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 9.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12402109277738732, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1668, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8759789072226127, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0637, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2073, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2073, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13157369951952264, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8684263004804773, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0519, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.096, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.096, "valinor_prob_under": 0.904, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0071, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.035573699519522634, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1668, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "hitter_id": 678662, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 665, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2409, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2141, "model_over_probability": 0.2141, "model_under_probability": 0.7859, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1307, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0834, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0834, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9204, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.05, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.67, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.09, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2141, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1551, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1081, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1318, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1565, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1912, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1484, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1334, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0605, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0834, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0244, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0115, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0226, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0177, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0115, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0027, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3331, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1565, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 11, "edge_direction_rank": 9, "value_score": 40.4, "value_rank": 6, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 14.09, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 14.09, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14215059838941607, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1912, "palantir_prob_under": 0.857849401610584, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0605, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2409, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2409, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0115, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1081, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1081, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8919, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0226, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03405059838941607, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1912, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "hitter_id": 666397, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 790, "under_odds": -1195, "expected_home_runs": 0.2168, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1949, "model_over_probability": 0.1949, "model_under_probability": 0.8051, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9228, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1086, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8914, "edge_over": 0.0825, "edge_under": -0.1177, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0825, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.05, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.35, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.35, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1949, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1646, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0887, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1146, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.163, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1623, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1673, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1471, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0499, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0825, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0522, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0426, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0237, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0549, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0426, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0347, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1556, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.163, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 12, "edge_direction_rank": 10, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1086, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.35, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.35, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12061078480124575, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1623, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8793892151987542, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.012010784801245747, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2168, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2168, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13157369951952264, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8684263004804773, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.022973699519522633, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0887, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0887, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9113, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0237, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.042873699519522634, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1623, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0499, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0426 }, { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "hitter_id": 666397, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 785, "under_odds": -1270, "expected_home_runs": 0.2168, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1949, "model_over_probability": 0.1949, "model_under_probability": 0.8051, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.113, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.927, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1087, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8913, "edge_over": 0.0819, "edge_under": -0.1219, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0819, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.05, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.35, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.35, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1949, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1646, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0887, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1146, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.163, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1623, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1673, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1471, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0493, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0819, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0516, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.042, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0243, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0543, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.042, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0341, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1556, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.163, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 13, "edge_direction_rank": 11, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1087, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.35, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.35, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12061078480124575, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1623, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8793892151987542, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.011910784801245744, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2168, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2168, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13157369951952264, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8684263004804773, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.02287369951952263, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0887, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0887, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9113, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0243, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.042873699519522634, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1623, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0493, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.042 }, { "hitter_name": "Edouard Julien", "hitter_id": 666397, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 785, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2168, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1949, "model_over_probability": 0.1949, "model_under_probability": 0.8051, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.113, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0819, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0819, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.05, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 7.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.35, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.35, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1949, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1646, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0887, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1146, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.163, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1623, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1673, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1471, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0493, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0819, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0516, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.042, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0243, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0543, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.042, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0341, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1556, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.163, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 14, "edge_direction_rank": 12, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.35, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.35, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12061078480124575, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1623, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8793892151987542, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0493, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2168, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2168, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13157369951952264, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8684263004804773, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.042, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0887, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0887, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9113, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0243, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.042873699519522634, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1623, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_id": 645277, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": -850, "expected_home_runs": 0.2458, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2179, "model_over_probability": 0.2179, "model_under_probability": 0.7821, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8947, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1352, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8648, "edge_over": 0.078, "edge_under": -0.1126, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.078, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9828, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.29, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.884, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.16, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.15, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2179, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1682, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1375, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1566, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1695, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1869, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1758, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1537, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.047, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.078, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0283, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0174, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0024, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0359, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0174, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0138, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2133, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1695, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 31, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 15, "edge_direction_rank": 13, "value_score": 38.5, "value_rank": 10, "value_box_rank": 4, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1352, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.15, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.15, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1390019497793302, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1869, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8609980502206698, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0038019497793302104, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2458, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2458, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.002892524513051553, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1375, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1375, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8625, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0024, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0066944742923817635, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1869, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.047, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0174 }, { "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_id": 645277, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": -905, "expected_home_runs": 0.2458, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2179, "model_over_probability": 0.2179, "model_under_probability": 0.7821, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9005, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1345, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8655, "edge_over": 0.078, "edge_under": -0.1184, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.078, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9828, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.29, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.884, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.16, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.15, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2179, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1682, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1375, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1566, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1695, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1869, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1758, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1537, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.047, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.078, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0283, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0174, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0024, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0359, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0174, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0138, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2133, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1695, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 31, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 16, "edge_direction_rank": 14, "value_score": 38.5, "value_rank": 11, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1345, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.15, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.15, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1390019497793302, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1869, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8609980502206698, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.004501949779330189, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2458, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2458, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0021925245130515747, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1375, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1375, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8625, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0024, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0066944742923817635, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1869, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.047, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0174 }, { "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_id": 645277, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 610, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2458, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2179, "model_over_probability": 0.2179, "model_under_probability": 0.7821, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1408, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0771, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0771, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9828, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.29, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.884, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.16, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.15, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2179, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1682, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1375, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1566, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1695, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1869, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1758, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1537, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0461, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0771, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0274, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0165, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0033, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.035, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0165, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0129, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2133, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1695, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 31, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 17, "edge_direction_rank": 15, "value_score": 38.0, "value_rank": 12, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.15, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.15, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1390019497793302, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1869, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8609980502206698, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0461, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2458, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2458, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0165, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1375, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1375, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8625, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0033, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0066944742923817635, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1869, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_id": 668939, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 710, "under_odds": -1030, "expected_home_runs": 0.2236, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2004, "model_over_probability": 0.2004, "model_under_probability": 0.7996, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1235, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9115, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1193, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8807, "edge_over": 0.0769, "edge_under": -0.1119, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0769, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9337, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.17, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2004, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1526, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1344, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1541, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1538, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1589, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1534, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1369, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0354, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0769, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0291, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0187, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0109, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0299, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0187, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0134, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2553, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1538, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 18, "edge_direction_rank": 16, "value_score": 34.6, "value_rank": 14, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1193, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.61, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.61, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11802122072098309, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1589, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8819787792790169, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0012787792790169145, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2236, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2236, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.008016357267142213, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1344, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1344, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8656, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0109, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.016378779279016903, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1589, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0354, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0187 }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_id": 668939, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 710, "under_odds": -1095, "expected_home_runs": 0.2236, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2004, "model_over_probability": 0.2004, "model_under_probability": 0.7996, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1235, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9163, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1188, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8812, "edge_over": 0.0769, "edge_under": -0.1167, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0769, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9337, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.17, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2004, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1526, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1344, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1541, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1538, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1589, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1534, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1369, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0354, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0769, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0291, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0187, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0109, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0299, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0187, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0134, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2553, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1538, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 19, "edge_direction_rank": 17, "value_score": 34.6, "value_rank": 15, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1188, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.61, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.61, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11802122072098309, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1589, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8819787792790169, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.000778779279016914, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2236, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2236, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.008516357267142213, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1344, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1344, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8656, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0109, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.016378779279016903, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1589, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0354, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0187 }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_id": 668939, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 705, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2236, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2004, "model_over_probability": 0.2004, "model_under_probability": 0.7996, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1242, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0762, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0762, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9337, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.17, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2004, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1526, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1344, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1541, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1538, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1589, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1534, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1369, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0347, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0762, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0284, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.018, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0102, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0292, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.018, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0127, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2553, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1538, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 20, "edge_direction_rank": 18, "value_score": 34.3, "value_rank": 22, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.61, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.61, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11802122072098309, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1589, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8819787792790169, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0347, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2236, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2236, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.018, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1344, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1344, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8656, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0102, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.016378779279016903, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1589, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "hitter_id": 686668, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": -1015, "expected_home_runs": 0.2235, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2003, "model_over_probability": 0.2003, "model_under_probability": 0.7997, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9103, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1207, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8793, "edge_over": 0.0753, "edge_under": -0.1106, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0753, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8689, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.88, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.05, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.7, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.7, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2003, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1526, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1083, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.132, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1538, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1742, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1616, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1429, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0492, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0753, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0276, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0172, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0167, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0366, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0172, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0179, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2113, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1538, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 21, "edge_direction_rank": 19, "value_score": 33.8, "value_rank": 25, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1207, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.7, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.7, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12958540306283584, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1742, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8704145969371642, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.008885403062835834, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2235, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2235, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.006616357267142214, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1083, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1083, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8917, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0167, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.021285403062835842, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1742, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0492, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0172 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "hitter_id": 686668, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": -1075, "expected_home_runs": 0.2235, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2003, "model_over_probability": 0.2003, "model_under_probability": 0.7997, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9149, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1202, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8798, "edge_over": 0.0753, "edge_under": -0.1152, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0753, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8689, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.88, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.05, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.7, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.7, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2003, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1526, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1083, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.132, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1538, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1742, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1616, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1429, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0492, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0753, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0276, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0172, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0167, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0366, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0172, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0179, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2113, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1538, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 22, "edge_direction_rank": 20, "value_score": 33.8, "value_rank": 26, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1202, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.7, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.7, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12958540306283584, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1742, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8704145969371642, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.009385403062835834, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2235, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2235, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.007116357267142215, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1083, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1083, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8917, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0167, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.021285403062835842, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1742, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0492, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0172 }, { "hitter_name": "Brenton Doyle", "hitter_id": 686668, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 695, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2235, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2003, "model_over_probability": 0.2003, "model_under_probability": 0.7997, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1258, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0745, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0745, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8689, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.88, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.05, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.7, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.7, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2003, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1526, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1083, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.132, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1538, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1742, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1616, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1429, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0484, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0745, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0268, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0164, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0175, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0358, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0164, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0171, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2113, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1538, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 23, "edge_direction_rank": 21, "value_score": 33.4, "value_rank": 27, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.7, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.7, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12958540306283584, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1742, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8704145969371642, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0484, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2235, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2235, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0164, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1083, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1083, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8917, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0175, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.021285403062835842, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1742, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_id": 670770, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -925, "expected_home_runs": 0.2315, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2067, "model_over_probability": 0.2067, "model_under_probability": 0.7933, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9024, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.128, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.872, "edge_over": 0.0742, "edge_under": -0.1091, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0742, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9518, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.46, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.3, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2067, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1662, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1609, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1756, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1672, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1895, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.176, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1538, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.057, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0742, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0337, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0248, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0284, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0435, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0248, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0213, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1672, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 24, "edge_direction_rank": 22, "value_score": 34.5, "value_rank": 17, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.128, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.61, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.61, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1409082326588988, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1895, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8590917673411012, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.012908232658898788, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2315, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2315, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.004307475486948431, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1609, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1609, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8391, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0284, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.028592524513051554, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1895, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.057, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0248 }, { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_id": 670770, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -985, "expected_home_runs": 0.2315, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2067, "model_over_probability": 0.2067, "model_under_probability": 0.7933, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1274, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8726, "edge_over": 0.0742, "edge_under": -0.1145, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0742, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9518, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.46, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.3, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2067, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1662, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1609, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1756, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1672, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1895, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.176, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1538, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.057, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0742, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0337, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0248, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0284, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0435, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0248, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0213, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1672, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 25, "edge_direction_rank": 23, "value_score": 34.5, "value_rank": 18, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1274, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.61, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.61, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1409082326588988, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1895, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8590917673411012, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.013508232658898778, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2315, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2315, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0049074754869484205, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1609, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1609, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8391, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0284, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.028592524513051554, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1895, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.057, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0248 }, { "hitter_name": "TJ Friedl", "hitter_id": 670770, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2315, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2067, "model_over_probability": 0.2067, "model_under_probability": 0.7933, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0734, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0734, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9518, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.46, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.3, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2067, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1662, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1609, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1756, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1672, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1895, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.176, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1538, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0562, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0734, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0329, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.024, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0276, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0427, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.024, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0205, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1672, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 26, "edge_direction_rank": 24, "value_score": 34.1, "value_rank": 23, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.61, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.61, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1409082326588988, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1895, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8590917673411012, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0562, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2315, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2315, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.024, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1609, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1609, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8391, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0276, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.028592524513051554, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1895, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "hitter_id": 657041, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": -865, "expected_home_runs": 0.2364, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2105, "model_over_probability": 0.2105, "model_under_probability": 0.7895, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8964, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8667, "edge_over": 0.0726, "edge_under": -0.1069, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0726, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8872, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.162, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2105, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1545, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1627, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1771, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1558, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.165, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1618, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.143, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0271, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0726, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0166, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0043, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0248, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0239, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0043, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0051, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2536, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1558, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 27, "edge_direction_rank": 25, "value_score": 34.4, "value_rank": 19, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1333, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12265933573882949, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.165, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8773406642611705, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.01064066426117051, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2364, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2364, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.005983642732857786, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1627, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1627, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8372999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0248, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04004066426117052, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.165, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0271, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0043 }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "hitter_id": 657041, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": -920, "expected_home_runs": 0.2364, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2105, "model_over_probability": 0.2105, "model_under_probability": 0.7895, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1326, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8674, "edge_over": 0.0726, "edge_under": -0.1125, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0726, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8872, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.162, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2105, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1545, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1627, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1771, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1558, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.165, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1618, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.143, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0271, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0726, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0166, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0043, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0248, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0239, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0043, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0051, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2536, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1558, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 28, "edge_direction_rank": 26, "value_score": 34.4, "value_rank": 20, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1326, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12265933573882949, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.165, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8773406642611705, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.009940664261170504, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2364, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2364, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0052836427328577795, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1627, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1627, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8372999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0248, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04004066426117052, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.165, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0271, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0043 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "hitter_id": 680776, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 715, "under_odds": -1045, "expected_home_runs": 0.2162, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1944, "model_over_probability": 0.1944, "model_under_probability": 0.8056, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1227, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9127, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1185, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8815, "edge_over": 0.0717, "edge_under": -0.1071, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0717, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9781, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.66, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.024, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.983, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.58, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.18, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.18, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1944, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1662, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0997, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1244, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1648, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1965, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1778, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1552, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0738, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0717, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0435, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0346, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.023, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0551, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0346, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0325, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0947, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1648, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 29, "edge_direction_rank": 27, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1185, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.18, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.18, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1460030524953683, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1965, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8539969475046317, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.027503052495368302, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2162, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2162, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.01380747548694844, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0997, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0997, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9003, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.023, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0463030524953683, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1965, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0738, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0346 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "hitter_id": 680776, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 715, "under_odds": -1110, "expected_home_runs": 0.2162, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1944, "model_over_probability": 0.1944, "model_under_probability": 0.8056, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1227, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9174, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.118, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.882, "edge_over": 0.0717, "edge_under": -0.1118, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0717, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9781, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.66, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.024, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.983, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.58, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.18, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.18, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1944, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1662, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0997, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1244, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1648, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1965, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1778, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1552, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0738, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0717, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0435, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0346, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.023, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0551, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0346, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0325, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0947, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1648, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 30, "edge_direction_rank": 28, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.118, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.18, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.18, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1460030524953683, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1965, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8539969475046317, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.028003052495368302, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2162, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2162, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.01430747548694844, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0997, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0997, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9003, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.023, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0463030524953683, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1965, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0738, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0346 }, { "hitter_name": "Jarren Duran", "hitter_id": 680776, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 715, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2162, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1944, "model_over_probability": 0.1944, "model_under_probability": 0.8056, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1227, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0717, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0717, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9781, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.66, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.024, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.983, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.58, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.18, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.18, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1944, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1662, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0997, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1244, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1648, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1965, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1778, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1552, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0738, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0717, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0435, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0346, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.023, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0551, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0346, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0325, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0947, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1648, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 31, "edge_direction_rank": 29, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.18, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.18, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1460030524953683, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1965, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8539969475046317, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0738, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2162, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2162, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0346, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0997, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0997, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9003, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.023, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0463030524953683, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1965, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Lane Thomas", "hitter_id": 657041, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2364, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2105, "model_over_probability": 0.2105, "model_under_probability": 0.7895, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0716, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0716, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8872, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.162, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2105, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1545, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1627, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1771, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1558, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.165, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1618, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.143, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0261, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0716, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0156, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0033, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0238, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0033, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0041, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2536, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1558, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 33, "edge_direction_rank": 30, "value_score": 33.9, "value_rank": 24, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12265933573882949, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.165, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8773406642611705, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0261, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2364, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2364, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0033, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1627, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1627, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8372999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0238, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04004066426117052, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.165, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Correa", "hitter_id": 621043, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 770, "under_odds": -1155, "expected_home_runs": 0.2028, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1836, "model_over_probability": 0.1836, "model_under_probability": 0.8164, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1149, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9203, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.111, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.889, "edge_over": 0.0687, "edge_under": -0.1039, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0687, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9053, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.117, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.04, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1836, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1755, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0942, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1195, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1744, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.169, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1958, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.17, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0541, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0687, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0606, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0572, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0207, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0809, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0572, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0551, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0743, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1744, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 34, "edge_direction_rank": 31, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.111, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.78, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 12.78, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12568111268184767, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.169, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8743188873181523, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.014681112681847672, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2028, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2028, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.025821533776396746, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0942, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0942, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9057999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0207, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04262153377639674, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.169, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0541, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0572 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Correa", "hitter_id": 621043, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 765, "under_odds": -1220, "expected_home_runs": 0.2028, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1836, "model_over_probability": 0.1836, "model_under_probability": 0.8164, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1156, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9242, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1112, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8888, "edge_over": 0.068, "edge_under": -0.1078, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.068, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9053, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.117, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.04, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1836, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1755, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0942, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1195, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1744, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.169, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1958, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.17, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0534, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.068, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0599, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0565, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0214, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0802, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0565, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0544, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0743, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1744, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 35, "edge_direction_rank": 32, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1112, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.78, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 12.78, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12568111268184767, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.169, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8743188873181523, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.01448111268184768, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2028, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2028, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.025621533776396754, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0942, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0942, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9057999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0214, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04262153377639674, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.169, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0534, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0565 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Correa", "hitter_id": 621043, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 765, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2028, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1836, "model_over_probability": 0.1836, "model_under_probability": 0.8164, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1156, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.068, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.068, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9053, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.117, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.04, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1836, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1755, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0942, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1195, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1744, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.169, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1958, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.17, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0534, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.068, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0599, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0565, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0214, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0802, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0565, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0544, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0743, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1744, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 36, "edge_direction_rank": 33, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.78, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 12.78, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12568111268184767, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.169, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8743188873181523, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0534, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2028, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2028, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0565, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0942, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0942, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9057999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0214, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04262153377639674, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.169, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "hitter_id": 676475, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": -870, "expected_home_runs": 0.2285, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2043, "model_over_probability": 0.2043, "model_under_probability": 0.7957, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8969, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8667, "edge_over": 0.0664, "edge_under": -0.1012, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0664, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9072, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.215, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.007, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.03, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2043, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1852, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1474, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1648, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1842, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2046, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2333, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2043, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0667, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0664, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0473, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0412, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0095, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0954, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0412, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0664, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1625, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1842, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 37, "edge_direction_rank": 34, "value_score": 30.1, "value_rank": 28, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1333, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.03, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.03, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1518288476357939, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2046, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8481711523642061, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.018528847635793905, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2285, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2285, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.005539694923923394, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1474, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1474, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8526, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0095, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01298915271187051, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2046, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0667, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0412 }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "hitter_id": 676475, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": -925, "expected_home_runs": 0.2285, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2043, "model_over_probability": 0.2043, "model_under_probability": 0.7957, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9024, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1326, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8674, "edge_over": 0.0664, "edge_under": -0.1067, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0664, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9072, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.215, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.007, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.03, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2043, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1852, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1474, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1648, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1842, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2046, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2333, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2043, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0667, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0664, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0473, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0412, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0095, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0954, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0412, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0664, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1625, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1842, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 38, "edge_direction_rank": 35, "value_score": 30.1, "value_rank": 29, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1326, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.03, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.03, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1518288476357939, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2046, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8481711523642061, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.01922884763579391, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2285, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2285, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0062396949239234, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1474, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1474, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8526, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0095, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01298915271187051, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2046, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0667, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0412 }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "hitter_id": 676475, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2285, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2043, "model_over_probability": 0.2043, "model_under_probability": 0.7957, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0664, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0664, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9072, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.215, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.007, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.03, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2043, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1852, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1474, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1648, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1842, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2046, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2333, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2043, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0667, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0664, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0473, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0412, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0095, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0954, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0412, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0664, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1625, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1842, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 39, "edge_direction_rank": 36, "value_score": 30.1, "value_rank": 30, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.03, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.03, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1518288476357939, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2046, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8481711523642061, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0667, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2285, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2285, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0412, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1474, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1474, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8526, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0095, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01298915271187051, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2046, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "hitter_id": 665161, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 765, "under_odds": -1145, "expected_home_runs": 0.2007, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1818, "model_over_probability": 0.1818, "model_under_probability": 0.8182, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1156, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9197, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1117, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8883, "edge_over": 0.0662, "edge_under": -0.1015, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0662, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9365, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.117, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.9, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.27, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1818, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.18, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1078, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1316, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1797, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.185, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2038, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1769, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0694, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0662, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0644, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0635, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0078, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0882, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0635, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0613, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1357, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1797, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 40, "edge_direction_rank": 37, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1117, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 14.27, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 14.27, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1376041990234123, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.185, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8623958009765877, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.025904199023412317, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2007, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2007, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.027139694923923402, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1078, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1078, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8922, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0078, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03103969492392339, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.185, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0694, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0635 }, { "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "hitter_id": 677951, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -610, "expected_home_runs": 0.2826, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2462, "model_over_probability": 0.2462, "model_under_probability": 0.7538, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8592, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1734, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8266, "edge_over": 0.066, "edge_under": -0.1054, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.066, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.162, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.18, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.18, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2462, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1912, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1763, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.188, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1925, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2394, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2187, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1904, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0592, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.066, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.011, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0011, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0039, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0385, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0102, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1265, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1925, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 41, "edge_direction_rank": 38, "value_score": 49.5, "value_rank": 1, "value_box_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1734, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 25.18, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 25.18, "palantir_prob_over": 0.17596999816146788, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2394, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8240300018385321, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0025699981614678846, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2826, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2826, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0345603050760766, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1763, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1763, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8237, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0039, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.037460305076076617, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2394, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0592, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0011 }, { "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "hitter_id": 665161, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 760, "under_odds": -1215, "expected_home_runs": 0.2007, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1818, "model_over_probability": 0.1818, "model_under_probability": 0.8182, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1163, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.924, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1118, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8882, "edge_over": 0.0655, "edge_under": -0.1058, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0655, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9365, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.117, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.9, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.27, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1818, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.18, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1078, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1316, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1797, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.185, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2038, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1769, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0687, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0655, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0637, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0628, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0085, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0875, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0628, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0606, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1357, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1797, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 42, "edge_direction_rank": 39, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1118, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 14.27, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 14.27, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1376041990234123, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.185, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8623958009765877, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.025804199023412314, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2007, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2007, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0270396949239234, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1078, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1078, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8922, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0085, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03103969492392339, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.185, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0687, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0628 }, { "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "hitter_id": 665161, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 760, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2007, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1818, "model_over_probability": 0.1818, "model_under_probability": 0.8182, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1163, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0655, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0655, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9365, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.117, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.9, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.27, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1818, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.18, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1078, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1316, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1797, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.185, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2038, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1769, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0687, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0655, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0637, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0628, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0085, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0875, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0628, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0606, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1357, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1797, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 43, "edge_direction_rank": 40, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 14.27, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 14.27, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1376041990234123, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.185, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8623958009765877, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0687, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2007, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2007, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0628, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1078, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1078, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8922, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0085, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03103969492392339, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.185, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Yastrzemski", "hitter_id": 573262, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 615, "under_odds": -900, "expected_home_runs": 0.2281, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.204, "model_over_probability": 0.204, "model_under_probability": 0.796, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1399, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1345, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8655, "edge_over": 0.0641, "edge_under": -0.104, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0641, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9002, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.884, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.204, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1851, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1114, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1347, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1841, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1944, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2094, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1819, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0545, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0641, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0452, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0392, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0285, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0695, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0392, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.042, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.03, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1841, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 44, "edge_direction_rank": 41, "value_score": 28.9, "value_rank": 37, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1345, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.11, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.11, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14448039886176572, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1944, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8555196011382342, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.009980398861765716, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2281, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2281, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.004339694923923387, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1114, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1114, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8886000000000001, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0285, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.033080398861765725, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1944, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0545, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0392 }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Yastrzemski", "hitter_id": 573262, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 610, "under_odds": -845, "expected_home_runs": 0.2281, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.204, "model_over_probability": 0.204, "model_under_probability": 0.796, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1408, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8942, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.136, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.864, "edge_over": 0.0632, "edge_under": -0.0982, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0632, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9002, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.884, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.204, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1851, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1114, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1347, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1841, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1944, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2094, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1819, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0536, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0632, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0443, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0383, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0294, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0686, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0383, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0411, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.03, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1841, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 46, "edge_direction_rank": 42, "value_score": 28.4, "value_rank": 38, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.136, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.11, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.11, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14448039886176572, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1944, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8555196011382342, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.008480398861765714, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2281, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2281, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.002839694923923386, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1114, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1114, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8886000000000001, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0294, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.033080398861765725, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1944, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0536, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0383 }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Yastrzemski", "hitter_id": 573262, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 610, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2281, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.204, "model_over_probability": 0.204, "model_under_probability": 0.796, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1408, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0632, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0632, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9002, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.884, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.51, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.204, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1851, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1114, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1347, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1841, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1944, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2094, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1819, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0536, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0632, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0443, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0383, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0294, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0686, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0383, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0411, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.03, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1841, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 58, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 47, "edge_direction_rank": 43, "value_score": 28.4, "value_rank": 39, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.11, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.11, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14448039886176572, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1944, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8555196011382342, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0536, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2281, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2281, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0383, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1114, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1114, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8886000000000001, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0294, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.033080398861765725, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1944, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "hitter_id": 677951, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.2826, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2462, "model_over_probability": 0.2462, "model_under_probability": 0.7538, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1774, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8226, "edge_over": 0.0627, "edge_under": -0.0969, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0627, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.162, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.18, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.18, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2462, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1912, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1763, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.188, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1925, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2394, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2187, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1904, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0559, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0627, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0077, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0044, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0072, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0352, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0044, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0069, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1265, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1925, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 48, "edge_direction_rank": 44, "value_score": 49.1, "value_rank": 2, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1774, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 25.18, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 25.18, "palantir_prob_over": 0.17596999816146788, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2394, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8240300018385321, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.001430001838532119, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2826, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2826, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.038560305076076606, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1763, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1763, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8237, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0072, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.037460305076076617, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2394, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0559, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0044 }, { "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "hitter_id": 677951, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2826, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2462, "model_over_probability": 0.2462, "model_under_probability": 0.7538, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0627, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0627, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.162, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.18, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.18, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2462, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1912, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1763, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.188, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1925, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2394, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2187, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1904, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0559, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0627, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0077, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0044, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0072, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0352, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0044, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0069, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1265, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1925, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 49, "edge_direction_rank": 45, "value_score": 49.1, "value_rank": 3, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 25.18, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 25.18, "palantir_prob_over": 0.17596999816146788, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2394, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8240300018385321, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0559, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2826, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2826, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0044, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1763, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1763, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8237, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0072, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.037460305076076617, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2394, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 780, "under_odds": -1170, "expected_home_runs": 0.1922, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1749, "model_over_probability": 0.1749, "model_under_probability": 0.8251, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1136, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9213, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1098, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8902, "edge_over": 0.0613, "edge_under": -0.0962, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0613, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8668, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.944, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1749, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1729, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0991, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1239, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1727, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1515, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1895, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1647, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0379, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0613, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0593, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0585, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0145, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0759, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0585, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0511, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0931, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1727, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 50, "edge_direction_rank": 46, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1098, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.11, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.11, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11234827464747671, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1515, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8876517253525233, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0025482746474767143, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1922, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1922, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.027021533776396753, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0991, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0991, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9009, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0145, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.037721533776396754, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1515, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0379, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0585 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": -270, "expected_home_runs": 0.2351, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2095, "model_over_probability": 0.2095, "model_under_probability": 0.7905, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7297, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2934, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7066, "edge_over": -0.0935, "edge_under": 0.0608, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0608, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.155, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.019, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2095, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1864, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.2034, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.2092, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1852, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1973, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2033, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1765, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1057, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0935, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1166, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1239, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0996, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0997, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1239, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1265, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.033, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1852, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 51, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2934, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 43.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 43.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14658179321645534, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1973, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8534182067835446, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.14681820678354465, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2351, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2351, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1545603050760766, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.2034, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.2034, "valinor_prob_under": 0.7966, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0996, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0645603050760766, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1973, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1057, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1239 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 770, "under_odds": -1240, "expected_home_runs": 0.1922, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1749, "model_over_probability": 0.1749, "model_under_probability": 0.8251, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1149, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9254, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1104, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8896, "edge_over": 0.06, "edge_under": -0.1003, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.06, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8668, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.944, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1749, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1729, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0991, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1239, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1727, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1515, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1895, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1647, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0366, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.06, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.058, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0572, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0158, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0746, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0572, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0498, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0931, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1727, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 52, "edge_direction_rank": 47, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1104, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.11, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.11, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11234827464747671, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1515, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8876517253525233, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.001948274647476711, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1922, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1922, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.02642153377639675, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0991, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0991, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9009, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0158, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.037721533776396754, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1515, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0366, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0572 }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 770, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1922, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1749, "model_over_probability": 0.1749, "model_under_probability": 0.8251, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1149, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.06, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.06, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8668, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.944, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1749, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1729, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0991, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1239, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1727, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1515, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1895, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1647, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0366, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.06, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.058, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0572, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0158, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0746, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0572, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0498, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0931, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1727, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 53, "edge_direction_rank": 48, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.11, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.11, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11234827464747671, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1515, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8876517253525233, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0366, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1922, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1922, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0572, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0991, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0991, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9009, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0158, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.037721533776396754, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1515, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "hitter_id": 682177, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 810, "under_odds": -1230, "expected_home_runs": 0.1851, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.169, "model_over_probability": 0.169, "model_under_probability": 0.831, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1099, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9248, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1062, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8938, "edge_over": 0.0591, "edge_under": -0.0938, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0591, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.088, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 5.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.89, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.169, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1049, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0908, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1028, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1271, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1065, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1517, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0965, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1012, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0418, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0591, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.005, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0191, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0071, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0134, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0191, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0087, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0908, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.452, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1065, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 54, "edge_direction_rank": 49, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1062, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 8.89, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 8.89, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11250224110208988, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1517, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8874977588979102, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.006302241102089878, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1851, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1851, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.10640747560039351, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0908, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8935925243996065, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.00020747560039351132, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1028, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1028, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8972, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0071, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.009702241102089879, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1517, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0418, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0908, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0191 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "hitter_id": 682177, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 800, "under_odds": -1305, "expected_home_runs": 0.1851, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.169, "model_over_probability": 0.169, "model_under_probability": 0.831, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1111, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9288, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1068, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8932, "edge_over": 0.0579, "edge_under": -0.0978, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0579, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.088, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 5.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.89, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.169, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1049, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0908, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1028, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1271, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1065, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1517, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0965, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1012, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0406, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0579, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0062, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0203, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0083, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0146, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0203, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0099, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0908, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.452, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1065, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 55, "edge_direction_rank": 50, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1068, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 8.89, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 8.89, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11250224110208988, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1517, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8874977588979102, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.005702241102089875, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1851, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1851, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.10640747560039351, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0908, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8935925243996065, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.000392524399606492, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1028, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1028, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8972, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0083, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.009702241102089879, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1517, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0406, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0908, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0203 }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "hitter_id": 682177, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 800, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1851, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.169, "model_over_probability": 0.169, "model_under_probability": 0.831, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1111, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0579, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0579, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.088, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 5.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.89, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.169, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1049, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0908, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1028, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1271, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1065, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1517, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0965, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1012, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0406, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0579, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0062, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0203, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0083, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0146, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0203, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0099, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0908, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.452, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1065, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 56, "edge_direction_rank": 51, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 8.89, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 8.89, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11250224110208988, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1517, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8874977588979102, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0406, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1851, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1851, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.10640747560039351, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0908, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8935925243996065, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0203, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1028, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1028, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8972, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0083, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.009702241102089879, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1517, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0908, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -760, "expected_home_runs": 0.2388, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2124, "model_over_probability": 0.2124, "model_under_probability": 0.7876, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8837, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1502, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8498, "edge_over": 0.0562, "edge_under": -0.0961, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0562, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2124, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1871, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1699, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1828, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1858, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2188, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.224, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1953, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0626, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0562, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0309, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0229, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0137, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0678, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0391, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.062, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1858, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 57, "edge_direction_rank": 52, "value_score": 29.3, "value_rank": 34, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1502, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 20.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 20.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.16185644358321488, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2188, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8381435564167852, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.011656443583214882, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2388, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2388, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.011360305076076604, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1699, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1699, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8301000000000001, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0137, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0310603050760766, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2188, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0626, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0229 }, { "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": -690, "expected_home_runs": 0.2508, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2218, "model_over_probability": 0.2218, "model_under_probability": 0.7782, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8734, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1603, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8397, "edge_over": 0.0551, "edge_under": -0.0952, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0551, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9018, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.18, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.162, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.56, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2218, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2506, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1693, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1824, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2521, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2447, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2718, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2446, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.078, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0551, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0839, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.093, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0026, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1051, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.093, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0779, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2648, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2521, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 58, "edge_direction_rank": 53, "value_score": 34.8, "value_rank": 13, "value_box_rank": 5, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1603, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 23.5, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 23.5, "palantir_prob_over": 0.17951628550853999, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2447, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8204837144914601, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.019216285508539988, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2508, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2508, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15783242848222917, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8421675715177708, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.002467571517770828, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1693, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1693, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8307, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0026, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.021683857026310815, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2447, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.078, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.093 }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2388, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2124, "model_over_probability": 0.2124, "model_under_probability": 0.7876, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0549, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0549, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2124, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1871, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1699, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1828, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1858, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2188, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.224, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1953, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0613, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0549, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0296, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0216, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0124, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0665, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0216, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0378, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.062, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1858, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 59, "edge_direction_rank": 54, "value_score": 29.2, "value_rank": 35, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 20.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 20.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.16185644358321488, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2188, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8381435564167852, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0613, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2388, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2388, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0216, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1699, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1699, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8301000000000001, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0124, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0310603050760766, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2188, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "hitter_id": 671732, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 545, "under_odds": -775, "expected_home_runs": 0.2348, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2093, "model_over_probability": 0.2093, "model_under_probability": 0.7907, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8857, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1489, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8511, "edge_over": 0.0543, "edge_under": -0.095, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0543, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8839, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.02, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.176, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.08, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.33, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2093, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2506, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1194, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1415, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2496, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2237, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2131, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0687, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0543, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0956, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1047, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0356, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0872, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1047, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0581, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1812, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2496, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 60, "edge_direction_rank": 55, "value_score": 27.3, "value_rank": 40, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1489, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.33, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.33, "palantir_prob_over": 0.16526062923485194, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2237, "palantir_prob_under": 0.834739370765148, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.01636062923485193, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2348, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2348, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15783242848222917, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8421675715177708, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.008932428482229166, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1194, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1194, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8806, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0356, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04586062923485193, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2237, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0687, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1047 }, { "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "hitter_id": 663728, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 275, "under_odds": -330, "expected_home_runs": 0.1966, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1785, "model_over_probability": 0.1785, "model_under_probability": 0.8215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2667, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7674, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2579, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7421, "edge_over": -0.0882, "edge_under": 0.0541, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0541, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9667, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 40.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 39.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 39.27, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1785, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1259, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1143, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1481, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1653, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1272, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1755, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1192, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1144, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0912, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0882, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1408, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1524, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1186, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1475, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1524, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1523, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1143, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1272, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 61, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2579, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 39.27, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 39.27, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13055714326125814, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1755, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8694428567387419, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.12734285673874188, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1966, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1966, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.11685093859041189, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1143, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8831490614095882, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.14104906140958812, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1481, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1481, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8519, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1186, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.031249061409588122, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1755, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0912, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1143, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1524 }, { "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2508, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2218, "model_over_probability": 0.2218, "model_under_probability": 0.7782, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0537, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0537, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9018, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.18, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.162, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.56, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2218, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2506, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1693, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1824, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2521, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2447, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2718, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2446, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0766, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0537, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0825, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0916, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0012, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1037, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0916, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0765, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2648, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2521, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 63, "edge_direction_rank": 57, "value_score": 34.6, "value_rank": 16, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 23.5, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 23.5, "palantir_prob_over": 0.17951628550853999, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2447, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8204837144914601, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0766, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2508, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2508, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15783242848222917, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8421675715177708, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0916, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1693, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1693, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8307, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0012, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.021683857026310815, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2447, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Elly De La Cruz", "hitter_id": 682829, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -710, "expected_home_runs": 0.2388, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2124, "model_over_probability": 0.2124, "model_under_probability": 0.7876, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8765, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8467, "edge_over": 0.0537, "edge_under": -0.0889, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0537, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2124, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1871, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1699, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1828, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1858, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2188, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.224, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1953, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0601, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0537, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0284, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0204, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0112, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0653, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0204, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0366, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.062, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1858, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 62, "edge_direction_rank": 56, "value_score": 29.1, "value_rank": 36, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1533, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 20.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 20.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.16185644358321488, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2188, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8381435564167852, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.00855644358321489, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2388, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2388, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.014460305076076596, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1699, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1699, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8301000000000001, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0112, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0310603050760766, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2188, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0601, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0204 }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "hitter_id": 671732, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -725, "expected_home_runs": 0.2348, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2093, "model_over_probability": 0.2093, "model_under_probability": 0.7907, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8788, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1509, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8491, "edge_over": 0.0531, "edge_under": -0.0881, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0531, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8839, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.02, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.176, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.08, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.33, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2093, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2506, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1194, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1415, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2496, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2237, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2131, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0675, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0531, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0944, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1035, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0368, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.086, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1035, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0569, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1812, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2496, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 64, "edge_direction_rank": 58, "value_score": 27.2, "value_rank": 41, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1509, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.33, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.33, "palantir_prob_over": 0.16526062923485194, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2237, "palantir_prob_under": 0.834739370765148, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.01436062923485193, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2348, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2348, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15783242848222917, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8421675715177708, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.006932428482229164, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1194, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1194, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8806, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0368, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04586062923485193, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2237, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0675, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1035 }, { "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler", "hitter_id": 671732, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2348, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2093, "model_over_probability": 0.2093, "model_under_probability": 0.7907, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0531, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0531, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8839, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.02, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.176, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.08, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.33, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2093, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2506, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1194, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1415, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2496, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2237, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2131, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0675, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0531, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0944, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1035, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0368, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.086, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1035, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0569, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1812, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2496, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 65, "edge_direction_rank": 59, "value_score": 27.2, "value_rank": 42, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.33, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.33, "palantir_prob_over": 0.16526062923485194, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2237, "palantir_prob_under": 0.834739370765148, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0675, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2348, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2348, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15783242848222917, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8421675715177708, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.1035, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1194, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1194, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8806, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0368, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04586062923485193, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2237, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": -645, "expected_home_runs": 0.2508, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2218, "model_over_probability": 0.2218, "model_under_probability": 0.7782, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8658, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1637, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8363, "edge_over": 0.0523, "edge_under": -0.0876, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0523, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9018, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.18, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.162, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.56, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.5, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2218, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2506, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1693, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1824, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2521, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2447, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2718, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2446, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0752, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0523, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0811, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0902, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0002, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1023, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0902, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0751, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2648, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2521, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 66, "edge_direction_rank": 60, "value_score": 34.4, "value_rank": 21, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1637, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 23.5, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 23.5, "palantir_prob_over": 0.17951628550853999, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2447, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8204837144914601, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.015816285508539973, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2508, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2508, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15783242848222917, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8421675715177708, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.005867571517770842, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1693, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1693, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8307, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0002, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.021683857026310815, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2447, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0752, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0902 }, { "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "hitter_id": 607208, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": -835, "expected_home_runs": 0.2192, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1968, "model_over_probability": 0.1968, "model_under_probability": 0.8032, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.893, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1414, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8586, "edge_over": 0.0497, "edge_under": -0.0898, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0497, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.944, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.97, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1968, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1625, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.133, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1529, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1634, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1866, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1683, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1479, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0395, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0497, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0154, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0079, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0141, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0212, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0079, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0008, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1595, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1634, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 69, "edge_direction_rank": 62, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1414, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.9, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.9, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13878151498283522, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1866, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8612184850171648, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0026184850171647733, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2192, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2192, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13157369951952264, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8684263004804773, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.009826300480477362, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.133, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.133, "valinor_prob_under": 0.867, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0141, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.007207815463312589, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1866, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0395, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0079 }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "hitter_id": 664761, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 805, "under_odds": -1225, "expected_home_runs": 0.1746, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1602, "model_over_probability": 0.1602, "model_under_probability": 0.8398, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1105, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9245, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1068, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8932, "edge_over": 0.0497, "edge_under": -0.0847, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0497, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9223, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.07, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.944, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.57, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.57, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1602, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1415, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.11, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1335, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1405, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1344, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1416, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1287, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0239, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0497, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.031, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.025, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0311, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.025, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0182, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1257, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1405, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 68, "edge_direction_rank": 61, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1068, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.57, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.57, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09906275808734293, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1344, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9009372419126571, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.007737241912657081, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1746, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1746, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12496178595996184, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8750382140400381, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.018161785959961832, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.11, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.11, "valinor_prob_under": 0.89, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0005, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.025899027872618913, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1344, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0239, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.025 }, { "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "hitter_id": 701350, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": -1010, "expected_home_runs": 0.1916, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1744, "model_over_probability": 0.1744, "model_under_probability": 0.8256, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9099, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1208, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8792, "edge_over": 0.0494, "edge_under": -0.0843, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0494, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8638, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.024, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.983, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.96, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1744, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1777, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1159, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1385, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1782, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1869, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2199, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1915, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0619, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0494, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0527, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0541, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0091, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0949, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0541, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0665, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.296, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1782, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 70, "edge_direction_rank": 63, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1208, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.8, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.8, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1390019497793302, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1869, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8609980502206698, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.018201949779330193, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1916, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1916, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.01803969492392339, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1159, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1159, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8841, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0091, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.023101949779330194, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1869, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0619, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0541 }, { "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "hitter_id": 701350, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": -1070, "expected_home_runs": 0.1916, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1744, "model_over_probability": 0.1744, "model_under_probability": 0.8256, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9145, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1203, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8797, "edge_over": 0.0494, "edge_under": -0.0889, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0494, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8638, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.024, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.983, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.96, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1744, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1777, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1159, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1385, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1782, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1869, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2199, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1915, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0619, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0494, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0527, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0541, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0091, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0949, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0541, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0665, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.296, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1782, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 71, "edge_direction_rank": 64, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1203, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.8, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.8, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1390019497793302, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1869, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8609980502206698, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.018701949779330193, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1916, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1916, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.01853969492392339, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1159, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1159, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8841, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0091, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.023101949779330194, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1869, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0619, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0541 }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "hitter_id": 666182, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 725, "under_odds": -1060, "expected_home_runs": 0.1869, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1705, "model_over_probability": 0.1705, "model_under_probability": 0.8295, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1212, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9138, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8829, "edge_over": 0.0493, "edge_under": -0.0843, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0493, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9122, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.22, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.006, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.42, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1705, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1716, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1092, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1328, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1718, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1828, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1968, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1709, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0616, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0493, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0504, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0509, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.012, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0756, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0509, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0497, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1729, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1718, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 72, "edge_direction_rank": 65, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1171, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.12, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.12, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13598084103323158, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1828, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8640191589667684, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.01888084103323158, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1869, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1869, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.019721533776396752, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1092, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1092, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8908, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.012, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.027621533776396742, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1828, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0616, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0509 }, { "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "hitter_id": 607208, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": -785, "expected_home_runs": 0.2192, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1968, "model_over_probability": 0.1968, "model_under_probability": 0.8032, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.887, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1431, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8569, "edge_over": 0.0487, "edge_under": -0.0838, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0487, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.944, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.97, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1968, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1625, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.133, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1529, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1634, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1866, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1683, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1479, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0385, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0487, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0144, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0069, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0151, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0202, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0069, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0002, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1595, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1634, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 74, "edge_direction_rank": 66, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1431, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.9, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.9, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13878151498283522, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1866, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8612184850171648, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.00431848501716478, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2192, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2192, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13157369951952264, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8684263004804773, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.01152630048047737, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.133, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.133, "valinor_prob_under": 0.867, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0151, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.007207815463312589, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1866, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0385, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0069 }, { "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "hitter_id": 607208, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2192, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1968, "model_over_probability": 0.1968, "model_under_probability": 0.8032, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0487, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0487, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.944, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.97, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1968, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1625, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.133, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1529, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1634, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1866, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1683, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1479, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0385, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0487, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0144, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0069, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0151, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0202, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0069, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0002, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1595, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1634, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 75, "edge_direction_rank": 67, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.9, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.9, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13878151498283522, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1866, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8612184850171648, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0385, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2192, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2192, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13157369951952264, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8684263004804773, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0069, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.133, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.133, "valinor_prob_under": 0.867, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0151, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.007207815463312589, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1866, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "hitter_id": 701350, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 695, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1916, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1744, "model_over_probability": 0.1744, "model_under_probability": 0.8256, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1258, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0486, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0486, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8638, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.024, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.983, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.96, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1744, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1777, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1159, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1385, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1782, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1869, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2199, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1915, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0611, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0486, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0519, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0533, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0099, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0941, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0533, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0657, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.296, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1782, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 76, "edge_direction_rank": 68, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.8, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.8, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1390019497793302, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1869, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8609980502206698, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0611, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1916, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1916, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0533, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1159, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1159, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8841, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0099, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.023101949779330194, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1869, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "hitter_id": 666182, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 720, "under_odds": -1125, "expected_home_runs": 0.1869, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1705, "model_over_probability": 0.1705, "model_under_probability": 0.8295, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9184, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1173, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8827, "edge_over": 0.0485, "edge_under": -0.0889, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0485, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9122, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.22, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.006, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.42, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1705, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1716, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1092, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1328, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1718, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1828, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1968, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1709, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0608, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0485, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0496, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0501, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0128, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0748, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0501, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0489, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1729, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1718, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 79, "edge_direction_rank": 71, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1173, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.12, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.12, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13598084103323158, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1828, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8640191589667684, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.018680841033231574, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1869, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1869, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.019521533776396746, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1092, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1092, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8908, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0128, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.027621533776396742, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1828, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0608, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0501 }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "hitter_id": 666182, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 720, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1869, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1705, "model_over_probability": 0.1705, "model_under_probability": 0.8295, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.122, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0485, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0485, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9122, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.22, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.006, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.42, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1705, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1716, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1092, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1328, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1718, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1828, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1968, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1709, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0608, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0485, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0496, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0501, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0128, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0748, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0501, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0489, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1729, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1718, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 80, "edge_direction_rank": 72, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.12, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.12, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13598084103323158, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1828, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8640191589667684, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0608, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1869, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1869, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0501, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1092, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1092, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8908, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0128, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.027621533776396742, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1828, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "hitter_id": 664761, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 795, "under_odds": -1295, "expected_home_runs": 0.1746, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1602, "model_over_probability": 0.1602, "model_under_probability": 0.8398, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1117, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1074, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8926, "edge_over": 0.0485, "edge_under": -0.0885, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0485, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9223, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.07, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.944, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.57, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.57, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1602, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1415, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.11, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1335, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1405, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1344, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1416, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1287, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0227, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0485, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0298, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0238, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0017, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0299, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0238, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.017, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1257, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1405, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 77, "edge_direction_rank": 69, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1074, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.57, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.57, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09906275808734293, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1344, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9009372419126571, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.00833724191265707, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1746, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1746, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12496178595996184, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8750382140400381, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.017561785959961843, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.11, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.11, "valinor_prob_under": 0.89, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0017, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.025899027872618913, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1344, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0227, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0238 }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "hitter_id": 664761, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 795, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1746, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1602, "model_over_probability": 0.1602, "model_under_probability": 0.8398, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1117, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0485, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0485, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9223, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.07, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.944, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.57, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.57, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1602, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1415, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.11, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1335, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1405, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1344, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1416, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1287, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0227, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0485, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0298, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0238, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0017, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0299, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0238, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.017, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1257, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1405, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 78, "edge_direction_rank": 70, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.57, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.57, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09906275808734293, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1344, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9009372419126571, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0227, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1746, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1746, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12496178595996184, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8750382140400381, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0238, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.11, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.11, "valinor_prob_under": 0.89, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0017, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.025899027872618913, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1344, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "hitter_id": 691016, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": -845, "expected_home_runs": 0.2158, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1941, "model_over_probability": 0.1941, "model_under_probability": 0.8059, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8942, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1404, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8596, "edge_over": 0.0481, "edge_under": -0.0883, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0481, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.864, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.176, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.43, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1941, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2479, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1189, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.141, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2466, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2473, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2473, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2183, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1013, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0481, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1019, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1137, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0271, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1013, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1137, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0723, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2466, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 81, "edge_direction_rank": 73, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1404, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.43, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.43, "palantir_prob_over": 0.18124312199251483, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2473, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8187568780074852, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.04084312199251483, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2158, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2158, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15783242848222917, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8421675715177708, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.017432428482229173, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1189, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1189, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8811, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0271, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.06234312199251482, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2473, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1013, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1137 }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Schanuel", "hitter_id": 694384, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1035, "under_odds": -1785, "expected_home_runs": 0.1459, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1358, "model_over_probability": 0.1358, "model_under_probability": 0.8642, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0881, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9469, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0851, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9149, "edge_over": 0.0477, "edge_under": -0.0827, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0477, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9065, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.72, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.98, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1358, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1342, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0616, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.0888, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.134, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1322, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1225, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0474, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0477, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0461, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0455, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0265, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0441, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0455, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0344, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.028, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.134, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 82, "edge_direction_rank": 74, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0851, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 9.98, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 9.98, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09992413108943449, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1355, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9000758689105655, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.014824131089434492, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1459, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1459, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12427711511453651, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8757228848854635, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.03917711511453652, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0616, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0616, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9384, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0265, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.06267711511453651, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0474, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0455 }, { "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "hitter_id": 521692, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": -590, "expected_home_runs": 0.2646, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2325, "model_over_probability": 0.2325, "model_under_probability": 0.7675, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8551, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.178, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.822, "edge_over": 0.0473, "edge_under": -0.0876, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0473, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.41, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.162, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 26.09, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2325, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1887, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1829, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1931, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1898, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2332, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2245, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1958, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.048, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0473, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0035, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0061, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0023, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0393, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0061, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0106, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0392, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1898, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 84, "edge_direction_rank": 75, "value_score": 39.6, "value_rank": 7, "value_box_rank": 3, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.178, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 26.09, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 26.09, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1717771372172954, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2332, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8282228627827046, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.006222862782704591, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2646, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2646, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.039160305076076596, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1829, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1829, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8170999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0023, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04406030507607661, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2332, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.048, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0061 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "hitter_id": 691016, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": -795, "expected_home_runs": 0.2158, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1941, "model_over_probability": 0.1941, "model_under_probability": 0.8059, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8883, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1421, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8579, "edge_over": 0.047, "edge_under": -0.0824, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.047, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.864, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.176, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.43, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1941, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2479, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1189, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.141, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2466, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2473, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2473, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2183, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1002, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.047, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1008, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1126, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0282, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1002, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1126, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0712, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2466, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 86, "edge_direction_rank": 77, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1421, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.43, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.43, "palantir_prob_over": 0.18124312199251483, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2473, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8187568780074852, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.03914312199251482, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2158, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2158, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15783242848222917, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8421675715177708, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.015732428482229166, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1189, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1189, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8811, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0282, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.06234312199251482, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2473, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1002, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1126 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "hitter_id": 691016, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2158, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1941, "model_over_probability": 0.1941, "model_under_probability": 0.8059, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.047, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.047, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.864, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.176, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.43, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1941, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2479, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1189, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.141, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2466, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2473, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2473, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2183, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1002, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.047, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1008, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1126, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0282, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1002, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1126, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0712, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2466, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 87, "edge_direction_rank": 78, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.43, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.43, "palantir_prob_over": 0.18124312199251483, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2473, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8187568780074852, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.1002, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2158, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2158, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15783242848222917, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8421675715177708, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.1126, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1189, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1189, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8811, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0282, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.06234312199251482, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2473, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "hitter_id": 543760, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": -930, "expected_home_runs": 0.2033, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184, "model_over_probability": 0.184, "model_under_probability": 0.816, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9029, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1317, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8683, "edge_over": 0.047, "edge_under": -0.0869, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.047, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.14, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.006, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.1, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.184, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1426, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1328, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1527, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1437, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1479, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1247, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1177, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0109, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.047, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0056, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0034, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0042, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0123, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0034, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0193, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.345, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1437, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 85, "edge_direction_rank": 76, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1317, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.75, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.75, "palantir_prob_over": 0.10957097579690975, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1479, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8904290242030902, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.022129024203090264, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2033, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2033, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12427711511453651, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8757228848854635, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.007422884885463499, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1328, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1328, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8672, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0042, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.023229024203090254, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1479, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0109, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0034 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "hitter_id": 543760, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": -875, "expected_home_runs": 0.2033, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184, "model_over_probability": 0.184, "model_under_probability": 0.816, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8974, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1332, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8668, "edge_over": 0.0461, "edge_under": -0.0814, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0461, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.14, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.006, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.1, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.184, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1426, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1328, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1527, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1437, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1479, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1247, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1177, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.01, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0461, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0047, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0043, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0051, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0043, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0202, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.345, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1437, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 88, "edge_direction_rank": 79, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1332, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.75, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.75, "palantir_prob_over": 0.10957097579690975, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1479, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8904290242030902, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.023629024203090265, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2033, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2033, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12427711511453651, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8757228848854635, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0089228848854635, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1328, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1328, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8672, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0051, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.023229024203090254, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1479, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.01, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0043 }, { "hitter_name": "Marcus Semien", "hitter_id": 543760, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2033, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.184, "model_over_probability": 0.184, "model_under_probability": 0.816, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0461, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0461, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.14, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.006, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.1, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.184, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1426, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1328, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1527, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1437, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1479, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1247, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1177, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.01, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0461, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0047, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0043, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0051, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0043, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0202, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.345, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1437, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 89, "edge_direction_rank": 80, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.75, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.75, "palantir_prob_over": 0.10957097579690975, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1479, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8904290242030902, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.01, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2033, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2033, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12427711511453651, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8757228848854635, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0043, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1328, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1328, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8672, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0051, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.023229024203090254, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1479, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Schanuel", "hitter_id": 694384, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1015, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1459, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1358, "model_over_probability": 0.1358, "model_under_probability": 0.8642, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0897, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0461, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0461, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9065, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.72, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.98, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1358, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1342, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0616, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.0888, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.134, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1322, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1225, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0458, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0461, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0445, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0439, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0281, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0425, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0439, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0328, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.028, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.134, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 90, "edge_direction_rank": 81, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 9.98, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 9.98, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09992413108943449, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1355, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9000758689105655, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0458, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1459, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1459, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12427711511453651, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8757228848854635, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0439, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0616, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0616, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9384, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0281, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.06267711511453651, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "hitter_id": 521692, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2646, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2325, "model_over_probability": 0.2325, "model_under_probability": 0.7675, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0456, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0456, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.41, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.162, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 26.09, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2325, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1887, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1829, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1931, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1898, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2332, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2245, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1958, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0463, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0456, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0018, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0078, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.004, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0376, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0078, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0089, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0392, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1898, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 91, "edge_direction_rank": 82, "value_score": 39.5, "value_rank": 8, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 26.09, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 26.09, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1717771372172954, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2332, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8282228627827046, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0463, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2646, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2646, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0078, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1829, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1829, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8170999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.004, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04406030507607661, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2332, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Schanuel", "hitter_id": 694384, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1005, "under_odds": -1885, "expected_home_runs": 0.1459, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1358, "model_over_probability": 0.1358, "model_under_probability": 0.8642, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9496, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.087, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.913, "edge_over": 0.0453, "edge_under": -0.0854, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0453, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9065, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.72, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.98, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1358, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1342, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0616, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.0888, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.134, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1322, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1225, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.045, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0453, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0437, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0431, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0289, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0417, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0431, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.032, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.028, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.134, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 92, "edge_direction_rank": 83, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.087, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 9.98, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 9.98, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09992413108943449, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1355, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9000758689105655, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.012924131089434493, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1459, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1459, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12427711511453651, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8757228848854635, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.03727711511453652, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0616, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0616, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9384, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0289, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.06267711511453651, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.045, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0431 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "hitter_id": 668715, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": -825, "expected_home_runs": 0.2084, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1881, "model_over_probability": 0.1881, "model_under_probability": 0.8119, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8919, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1381, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8619, "edge_over": 0.0452, "edge_under": -0.08, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0452, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9203, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.73, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.73, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1881, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.176, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1625, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1769, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1753, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1858, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1833, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1596, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0429, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0452, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0331, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0292, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0196, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0404, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0292, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0167, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0285, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1753, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 93, "edge_direction_rank": 84, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1381, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.73, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.73, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13819320671819638, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1858, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8618067932818037, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 9.320671819637583e-05, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2084, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2084, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.001278466223603253, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1625, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1625, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8375, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0196, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.025678466223603258, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1858, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0429, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0292 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "hitter_id": 668715, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": -875, "expected_home_runs": 0.2084, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1881, "model_over_probability": 0.1881, "model_under_probability": 0.8119, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8974, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1374, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8626, "edge_over": 0.0452, "edge_under": -0.0855, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0452, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9203, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.73, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.73, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1881, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.176, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1625, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1769, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1753, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1858, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1833, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1596, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0429, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0452, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0331, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0292, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0196, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0404, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0292, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0167, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0285, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1753, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 94, "edge_direction_rank": 85, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1374, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.73, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.73, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13819320671819638, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1858, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8618067932818037, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.000793206718196382, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2084, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2084, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0005784662236032467, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1625, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1625, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8375, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0196, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.025678466223603258, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1858, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0429, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0292 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "hitter_id": 467793, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 610, "under_odds": -890, "expected_home_runs": 0.2057, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1859, "model_over_probability": 0.1859, "model_under_probability": 0.8141, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1408, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.899, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1354, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8646, "edge_over": 0.0451, "edge_under": -0.0849, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0451, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9278, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.09, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.99, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.99, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1859, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.143, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.113, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.136, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.144, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1469, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.128, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1199, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0061, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0451, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0022, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0072, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0278, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0128, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0072, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0209, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3339, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.144, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 95, "edge_direction_rank": 86, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1354, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.9, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.9, "palantir_prob_over": 0.108797551779991, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1469, "palantir_prob_under": 0.891202448220009, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.026602448220008998, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2057, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2057, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12427711511453651, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8757228848854635, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.01112288488546348, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.113, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.113, "valinor_prob_under": 0.887, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0278, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.015479563334545518, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1469, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0061, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0072 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1005, "under_odds": -1700, "expected_home_runs": 0.145, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.135, "model_over_probability": 0.135, "model_under_probability": 0.865, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0874, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9126, "edge_over": 0.0445, "edge_under": -0.0794, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0445, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.176, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.94, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.135, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0409, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0281, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.085, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1112, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0495, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.134, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0606, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0832, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0435, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0445, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0496, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0624, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0055, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0299, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0624, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0073, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0281, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.5687, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0495, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 96, "edge_direction_rank": 87, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0874, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.94, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.94, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09874932027038774, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.134, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9012506797296123, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.011349320270387736, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.145, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.145, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.06378058692129947, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0281, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9362194130787005, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.023619413078700538, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.085, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.085, "valinor_prob_under": 0.915, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0055, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.034968733349088274, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.134, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0435, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0281, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0624 }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": -970, "expected_home_runs": 0.1956, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1777, "model_over_probability": 0.1777, "model_under_probability": 0.8223, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9065, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8718, "edge_over": 0.0444, "edge_under": -0.0842, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0444, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8669, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.42, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1777, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1168, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1034, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1419, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1603, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1182, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1605, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.102, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1043, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0272, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0444, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0165, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0299, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0086, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0313, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0299, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.029, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1034, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1182, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 97, "edge_direction_rank": 88, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1282, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.42, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.42, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11924119939708755, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1605, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8807588006029125, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.008958800602912459, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1956, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1956, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.11222486628115766, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1034, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8877751337188423, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.01597513371884235, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1419, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1419, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8581, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0086, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.02967513371884234, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1605, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0272, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1034, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0299 }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Steer", "hitter_id": 668715, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 595, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2084, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1881, "model_over_probability": 0.1881, "model_under_probability": 0.8119, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1439, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0442, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0442, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9203, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.16, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.73, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.73, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1881, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.176, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1625, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1769, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1753, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1858, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1833, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1596, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0419, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0442, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0321, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0282, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0186, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0394, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0282, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0157, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0285, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1753, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 98, "edge_direction_rank": 89, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.73, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.73, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13819320671819638, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1858, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8618067932818037, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0419, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2084, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2084, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0282, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1625, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1625, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8375, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0186, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.025678466223603258, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1858, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "hitter_id": 467793, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": -840, "expected_home_runs": 0.2057, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1859, "model_over_probability": 0.1859, "model_under_probability": 0.8141, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8936, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.863, "edge_over": 0.0441, "edge_under": -0.0795, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0441, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9278, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.09, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.99, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.99, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1859, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.143, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.113, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.136, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.144, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1469, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.128, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1199, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0051, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0441, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0012, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0082, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0288, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0138, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0219, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3339, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.144, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 99, "edge_direction_rank": 90, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.137, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.9, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.9, "palantir_prob_over": 0.108797551779991, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1469, "palantir_prob_under": 0.891202448220009, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.028202448220009016, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2057, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2057, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12427711511453651, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8757228848854635, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.012722884885463498, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.113, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.113, "valinor_prob_under": 0.887, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0288, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.015479563334545518, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1469, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0051, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0082 }, { "hitter_name": "Carlos Santana", "hitter_id": 467793, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 605, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2057, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1859, "model_over_probability": 0.1859, "model_under_probability": 0.8141, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1418, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0441, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0441, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9278, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.09, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.99, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.99, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1859, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.143, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.113, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.136, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.144, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1469, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.128, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1199, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0051, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0441, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0012, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0082, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0288, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0138, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0219, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3339, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.144, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 100, "edge_direction_rank": 91, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.9, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.9, "palantir_prob_over": 0.108797551779991, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1469, "palantir_prob_under": 0.891202448220009, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0051, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2057, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2057, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12427711511453651, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8757228848854635, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0082, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.113, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.113, "valinor_prob_under": 0.887, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0288, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.015479563334545518, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1469, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "hitter_id": 514888, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -760, "expected_home_runs": 0.2233, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001, "model_over_probability": 0.2001, "model_under_probability": 0.7999, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8837, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1502, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8498, "edge_over": 0.0439, "edge_under": -0.0838, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0439, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9375, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.117, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.59, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2001, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1842, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1568, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1723, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1833, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2135, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2021, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1754, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0573, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0439, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.028, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0229, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0459, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0192, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.011, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1833, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 101, "edge_direction_rank": 92, "value_score": 20.9, "value_rank": 49, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1502, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.59, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.59, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15814178589083216, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2135, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8418582141091678, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.007941785890832165, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2233, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2233, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.011360305076076604, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1568, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1568, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8432, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0006, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01930209096690877, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2135, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0573, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0229 }, { "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "hitter_id": 521692, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": -555, "expected_home_runs": 0.2646, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2325, "model_over_probability": 0.2325, "model_under_probability": 0.7675, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8473, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1821, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8179, "edge_over": 0.0438, "edge_under": -0.0798, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0438, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.41, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.162, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.09, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 26.09, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2325, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1887, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1829, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1931, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1898, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2332, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2245, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1958, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0445, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0438, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0096, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0058, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0358, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0071, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0392, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1898, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 102, "edge_direction_rank": 93, "value_score": 39.3, "value_rank": 9, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1821, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 26.09, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 26.09, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1717771372172954, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2332, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8282228627827046, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.010322862782704612, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2646, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2646, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.043260305076076616, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1829, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1829, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8170999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0058, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04406030507607661, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2332, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0445, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0096 }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": -295, "expected_home_runs": 0.2351, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2095, "model_over_probability": 0.2095, "model_under_probability": 0.7905, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7468, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2825, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7175, "edge_over": -0.0846, "edge_under": 0.0437, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0437, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.155, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.019, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2095, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1864, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.2034, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.2092, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1852, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1973, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2033, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1765, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0968, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0846, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1077, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.115, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0907, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0908, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.115, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1176, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.033, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1852, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 103, "edge_direction_rank": 3, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2825, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 43.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 43.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14658179321645534, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1973, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8534182067835446, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.13591820678354463, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2351, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2351, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.14366030507607658, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.2034, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.2034, "valinor_prob_under": 0.7966, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0907, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0645603050760766, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1973, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0968, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.115 }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "hitter_id": 666310, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": -860, "expected_home_runs": 0.2015, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1825, "model_over_probability": 0.1825, "model_under_probability": 0.8175, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8958, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8658, "edge_over": 0.0436, "edge_under": -0.0783, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0436, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.088, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.8, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1825, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1752, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1334, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1532, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1742, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1793, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1926, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1673, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0404, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0436, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0363, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0332, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0055, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0537, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0332, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0284, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0615, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1742, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 104, "edge_direction_rank": 94, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1342, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.75, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 12.75, "palantir_prob_over": 0.133387488915705, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1793, "palantir_prob_under": 0.866612511084295, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0008125110842950034, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2015, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2015, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.002621533776396734, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1334, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1334, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8666, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0055, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0034340448606917373, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1793, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0404, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0332 }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "hitter_id": 666310, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": -915, "expected_home_runs": 0.2015, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1825, "model_over_probability": 0.1825, "model_under_probability": 0.8175, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9015, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8665, "edge_over": 0.0436, "edge_under": -0.084, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0436, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.088, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.8, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1825, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1752, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1334, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1532, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1742, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1793, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1926, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1673, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0404, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0436, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0363, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0332, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0055, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0537, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0332, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0284, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0615, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1742, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 105, "edge_direction_rank": 95, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1335, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.75, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 12.75, "palantir_prob_over": 0.133387488915705, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1793, "palantir_prob_under": 0.866612511084295, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.00011251108429499723, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2015, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2015, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.00332153377639674, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1334, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1334, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8666, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0055, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0034340448606917373, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1793, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0404, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0332 }, { "hitter_name": "Bo Naylor", "hitter_id": 666310, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2015, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1825, "model_over_probability": 0.1825, "model_under_probability": 0.8175, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0436, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0436, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.088, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.8, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1825, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1752, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1334, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1532, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1742, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1793, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1926, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1673, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0404, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0436, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0363, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0332, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0055, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0537, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0332, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0284, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0615, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1742, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 106, "edge_direction_rank": 96, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.75, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 12.75, "palantir_prob_over": 0.133387488915705, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1793, "palantir_prob_under": 0.866612511084295, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0404, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2015, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2015, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0332, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1334, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1334, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8666, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0055, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0034340448606917373, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1793, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 645, "under_odds": -910, "expected_home_runs": 0.1956, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1777, "model_over_probability": 0.1777, "model_under_probability": 0.8223, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.901, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1296, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8704, "edge_over": 0.0435, "edge_under": -0.0787, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0435, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8669, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.42, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1777, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1168, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1034, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1419, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1603, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1182, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1605, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.102, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1043, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0263, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0435, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0174, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0308, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0077, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0322, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0308, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0299, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1034, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1182, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 107, "edge_direction_rank": 97, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1296, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.42, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.42, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11924119939708755, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1605, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8807588006029125, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.010358800602912444, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1956, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1956, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.11222486628115766, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1034, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8877751337188423, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.017375133718842334, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1419, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1419, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8581, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0077, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.02967513371884234, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1605, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0263, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1034, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0308 }, { "hitter_name": "JJ Bleday", "hitter_id": 668709, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 645, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1956, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1777, "model_over_probability": 0.1777, "model_under_probability": 0.8223, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0435, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0435, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8669, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.42, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.42, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1034, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1777, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1168, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1034, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1419, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1603, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1182, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1605, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.102, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1034, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1043, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0263, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0435, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0174, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0308, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0077, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0322, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0308, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0299, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1034, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1182, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 108, "edge_direction_rank": 98, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.42, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.42, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11924119939708755, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1605, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8807588006029125, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0263, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1956, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1956, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.11222486628115766, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1034, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8877751337188423, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0308, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1419, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1419, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8581, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0077, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.02967513371884234, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1605, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1034, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "hitter_id": 671056, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": -955, "expected_home_runs": 0.1901, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1731, "model_over_probability": 0.1731, "model_under_probability": 0.8269, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9052, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1255, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8745, "edge_over": 0.0432, "edge_under": -0.0783, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0432, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7918, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.84, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.215, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.007, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.82, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.82, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.82, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1731, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1773, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1468, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1643, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1779, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.231, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.231, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2021, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1011, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0432, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0474, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0492, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0169, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0492, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0722, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.382, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1779, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 109, "edge_direction_rank": 99, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1255, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.82, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.82, "palantir_prob_over": 0.17027791318981939, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.231, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8297220868101807, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.044777913189819385, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1901, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1901, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.013339694923923395, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1468, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1468, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8532, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0169, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03143821826589599, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.231, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1011, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0492 }, { "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "hitter_id": 671056, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": -1015, "expected_home_runs": 0.1901, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1731, "model_over_probability": 0.1731, "model_under_probability": 0.8269, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9103, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1249, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8751, "edge_over": 0.0432, "edge_under": -0.0834, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0432, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7918, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.84, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.215, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.007, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.82, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.82, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.82, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1731, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1773, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1468, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1643, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1779, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.231, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.231, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2021, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1011, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0432, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0474, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0492, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0169, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0492, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0722, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.382, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1779, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 110, "edge_direction_rank": 100, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1249, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.82, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.82, "palantir_prob_over": 0.17027791318981939, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.231, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8297220868101807, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.04537791318981939, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1901, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1901, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.013939694923923399, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1468, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1468, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8532, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0169, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03143821826589599, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.231, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1011, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0492 }, { "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "hitter_id": 671056, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1901, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1731, "model_over_probability": 0.1731, "model_under_probability": 0.8269, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0432, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0432, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7918, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.84, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.215, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.007, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.82, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.82, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.82, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1731, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1773, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1468, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1643, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1779, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.231, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.231, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2021, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1011, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0432, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0474, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0492, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0169, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0492, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0722, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.382, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1779, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 111, "edge_direction_rank": 101, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.82, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.82, "palantir_prob_over": 0.17027791318981939, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.231, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8297220868101807, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.1011, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1901, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1901, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0492, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1468, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1468, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8532, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0169, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03143821826589599, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.231, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 985, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.145, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.135, "model_over_probability": 0.135, "model_under_probability": 0.865, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0922, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0428, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0428, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.176, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.94, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.135, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0409, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0281, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.085, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1112, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0495, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.134, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0606, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0832, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0418, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0428, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0513, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0641, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0072, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0316, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0641, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.009, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0281, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.5687, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0495, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 112, "edge_direction_rank": 102, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.94, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.94, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09874932027038774, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.134, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9012506797296123, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0418, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.145, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.145, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.06378058692129947, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0281, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9362194130787005, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0641, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.085, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.085, "valinor_prob_under": 0.915, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0072, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.034968733349088274, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.134, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0281, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "hitter_id": 514888, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2233, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001, "model_over_probability": 0.2001, "model_under_probability": 0.7999, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0426, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0426, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9375, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.117, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.59, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2001, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1842, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1568, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1723, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1833, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2135, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2021, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1754, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.056, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0426, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0267, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0216, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0007, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0446, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0216, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0179, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.011, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1833, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 113, "edge_direction_rank": 103, "value_score": 20.8, "value_rank": 50, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.59, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.59, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15814178589083216, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2135, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8418582141091678, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.056, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2233, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2233, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0216, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1568, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1568, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8432, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0007, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01930209096690877, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2135, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -975, "expected_home_runs": 0.1924, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.175, "model_over_probability": 0.175, "model_under_probability": 0.825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.907, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1275, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8725, "edge_over": 0.0425, "edge_under": -0.082, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0425, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.175, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1779, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0831, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1095, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1783, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1902, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2058, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1787, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0577, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0425, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0454, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0466, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0494, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0733, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0462, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1978, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1783, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 60, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 114, "edge_direction_rank": 104, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1275, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 9.87, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 9.87, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14142018450675548, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1902, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8585798154932445, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.013920184506755473, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1924, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1924, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.011339694923923394, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0831, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0831, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9169, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0494, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05832018450675548, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1902, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0577, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0466 }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 980, "under_odds": -1795, "expected_home_runs": 0.145, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.135, "model_over_probability": 0.135, "model_under_probability": 0.865, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0926, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9472, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0891, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9109, "edge_over": 0.0424, "edge_under": -0.0822, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0424, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.176, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.94, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0281, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.135, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0409, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0281, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.085, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1112, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0495, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.134, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0606, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0281, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0832, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0414, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0424, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0517, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0645, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0076, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.032, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0645, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0094, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0281, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.5687, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0495, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 115, "edge_direction_rank": 105, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0891, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.94, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.94, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09874932027038774, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.134, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9012506797296123, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.009649320270387743, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.145, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.145, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.06378058692129947, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0281, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9362194130787005, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.02531941307870053, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.085, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.085, "valinor_prob_under": 0.915, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0076, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.034968733349088274, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.134, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0414, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0281, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0645 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": -920, "expected_home_runs": 0.1924, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.175, "model_over_probability": 0.175, "model_under_probability": 0.825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1288, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8712, "edge_over": 0.0417, "edge_under": -0.077, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0417, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.175, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1779, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0831, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1095, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1783, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1902, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2058, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1787, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0569, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0417, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0446, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0458, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0502, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0725, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0458, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0454, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1978, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1783, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 60, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 116, "edge_direction_rank": 106, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1288, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 9.87, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 9.87, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14142018450675548, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1902, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8585798154932445, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.012620184506755477, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1924, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1924, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.010039694923923398, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0831, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0831, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9169, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0502, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05832018450675548, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1902, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0569, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0458 }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1924, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.175, "model_over_probability": 0.175, "model_under_probability": 0.825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0417, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0417, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 9.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.175, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1779, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0831, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1095, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1783, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1902, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2058, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1787, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0569, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0417, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0446, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0458, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0502, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0725, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0458, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0454, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1978, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1783, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 60, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 117, "edge_direction_rank": 107, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 9.87, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 9.87, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14142018450675548, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1902, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8585798154932445, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0569, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1924, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1924, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0458, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0831, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0831, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9169, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0502, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05832018450675548, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1902, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "hitter_id": 514888, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -710, "expected_home_runs": 0.2233, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2001, "model_over_probability": 0.2001, "model_under_probability": 0.7999, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8765, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8467, "edge_over": 0.0414, "edge_under": -0.0766, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0414, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9375, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.31, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.117, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.59, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2001, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1842, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1568, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1723, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1833, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2135, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2021, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1754, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0548, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0414, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0255, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0204, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0019, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0434, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0204, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0167, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.011, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1833, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 118, "edge_direction_rank": 108, "value_score": 20.7, "value_rank": 51, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1533, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.59, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.59, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15814178589083216, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2135, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8418582141091678, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.004841785890832173, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2233, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2233, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.014460305076076596, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1568, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1568, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8432, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0019, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01930209096690877, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2135, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0548, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0204 }, { "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "hitter_id": 663728, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 285, "under_odds": -355, "expected_home_runs": 0.1966, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1785, "model_over_probability": 0.1785, "model_under_probability": 0.8215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2597, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7802, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2497, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7503, "edge_over": -0.0812, "edge_under": 0.0413, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0413, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9667, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 40.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 39.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 39.27, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1785, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1259, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1143, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1481, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1653, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1272, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1755, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1192, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1144, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0842, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0812, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1338, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1454, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1116, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1405, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1454, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1453, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1143, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1272, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 119, "edge_direction_rank": 4, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2497, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 39.27, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 39.27, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13055714326125814, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1755, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8694428567387419, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.11914285673874186, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1966, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1966, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.11685093859041189, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1143, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8831490614095882, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.13284906140958813, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1481, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1481, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8519, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1116, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.031249061409588122, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1755, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0842, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1143, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1454 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "hitter_id": 663886, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 685, "under_odds": -980, "expected_home_runs": 0.1843, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1683, "model_over_probability": 0.1683, "model_under_probability": 0.8317, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9074, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1231, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8769, "edge_over": 0.0409, "edge_under": -0.0757, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0409, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7977, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.62, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.95, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1683, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1484, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1626, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1771, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1474, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.161, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1425, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0197, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0409, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.021, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0148, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0352, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0336, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0148, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0151, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0473, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1474, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 120, "edge_direction_rank": 109, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1231, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.95, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 12.95, "palantir_prob_over": 0.10895230341894667, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1471, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8910476965810533, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.014147696581053332, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1843, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1843, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.004216357267142215, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1626, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1626, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8374, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0352, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.053647696581053325, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1471, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0197, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0148 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "hitter_id": 663886, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": -1040, "expected_home_runs": 0.1843, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1683, "model_over_probability": 0.1683, "model_under_probability": 0.8317, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9123, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1232, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8768, "edge_over": 0.0401, "edge_under": -0.0806, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0401, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7977, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.62, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.95, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1683, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1484, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1626, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1771, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1474, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.161, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1425, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0189, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0401, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0202, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.014, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0344, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0328, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.014, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0143, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0473, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1474, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 121, "edge_direction_rank": 110, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1232, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.95, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 12.95, "palantir_prob_over": 0.10895230341894667, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1471, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8910476965810533, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.014247696581053335, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1843, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1843, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.004116357267142212, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1626, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1626, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8374, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0344, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.053647696581053325, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1471, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0189, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.014 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Stephenson", "hitter_id": 663886, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1843, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1683, "model_over_probability": 0.1683, "model_under_probability": 0.8317, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0401, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0401, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7977, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.62, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.95, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1683, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1484, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1626, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1771, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1474, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.161, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1425, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0189, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0401, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0202, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.014, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0344, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0328, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.014, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0143, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0473, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1474, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 122, "edge_direction_rank": 111, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.95, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 12.95, "palantir_prob_over": 0.10895230341894667, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1471, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8910476965810533, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0189, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1843, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1843, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.014, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1626, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1626, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8374, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0344, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.053647696581053325, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1471, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "hitter_id": 656941, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 265, "under_odds": -320, "expected_home_runs": 0.2214, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1986, "model_over_probability": 0.1986, "model_under_probability": 0.8014, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2645, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7355, "edge_over": -0.0754, "edge_under": 0.0395, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0395, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.944, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 44.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 41.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 41.67, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 41.67, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1986, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1785, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1418, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1602, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1774, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1892, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1876, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1631, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0848, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0754, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0955, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1019, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1322, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0864, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1019, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1109, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0616, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1774, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 123, "edge_direction_rank": 5, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2645, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 41.67, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 41.67, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1406886582279745, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1892, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8593113417720255, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.12381134177202552, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2214, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2214, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.12767846622360327, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1418, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1418, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8582, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1322, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.004978466223603262, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1892, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0848, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1019 }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "hitter_id": 672695, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 935, "under_odds": -1520, "expected_home_runs": 0.1455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1354, "model_over_probability": 0.1354, "model_under_probability": 0.8646, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0966, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9383, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0933, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9067, "edge_over": 0.0388, "edge_under": -0.0737, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0388, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9525, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.99, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.4, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.2, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1354, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1633, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.094, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1194, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1648, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1712, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1843, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1604, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0746, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0388, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0667, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0755, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0026, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0877, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0755, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0638, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1648, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 124, "edge_direction_rank": 112, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0933, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 14.2, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 14.2, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1273362838042454, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1712, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8726637161957547, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.03403628380424539, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1455, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1455, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.043521533776396754, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.094, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.094, "valinor_prob_under": 0.906, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0026, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04282153377639675, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1712, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0746, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0755 }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "hitter_id": 672695, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 920, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1354, "model_over_probability": 0.1354, "model_under_probability": 0.8646, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.098, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0374, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0374, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9525, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.99, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.4, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.2, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1354, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1633, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.094, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1194, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1648, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1712, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1843, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1604, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0732, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0374, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0653, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0741, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.004, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0863, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0741, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0624, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1648, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 125, "edge_direction_rank": 113, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 14.2, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 14.2, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1273362838042454, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1712, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8726637161957547, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0732, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1455, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1455, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0741, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.094, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.094, "valinor_prob_under": 0.906, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.004, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04282153377639675, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1712, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_id": 683002, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -610, "expected_home_runs": 0.2453, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2175, "model_over_probability": 0.2175, "model_under_probability": 0.7825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8592, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1734, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8266, "edge_over": 0.0373, "edge_under": -0.0767, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0373, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9873, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.7, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.1, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2175, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1557, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1564, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.172, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1572, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1917, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1627, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1437, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0115, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0373, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0245, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.038, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0238, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0175, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.038, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0365, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.276, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1572, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 126, "edge_direction_rank": 114, "value_score": 29.8, "value_rank": 31, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1734, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 21.69, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 21.69, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1425153868603433, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1917, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8574846131396567, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.030884613139656708, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2453, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2453, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.04608364273285778, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1564, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1564, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8436, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0238, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.029083642732857795, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1917, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0115, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.038 }, { "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_id": 641355, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": -640, "expected_home_runs": 0.2389, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2125, "model_over_probability": 0.2125, "model_under_probability": 0.7875, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8649, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1686, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8314, "edge_over": 0.0371, "edge_under": -0.0774, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0371, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9856, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.155, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.019, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2125, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1871, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.149, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.166, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1858, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2238, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2066, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1794, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0484, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0371, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0117, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0037, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0264, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0312, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0037, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.004, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0313, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1858, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 127, "edge_direction_rank": 115, "value_score": 27.2, "value_rank": 43, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1686, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.39, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.39, "palantir_prob_over": 0.16532979907378428, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2238, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8346702009262157, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.003270200926215716, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2389, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2389, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.029760305076076604, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.149, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.149, "valinor_prob_under": 0.851, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0264, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.026490104149860888, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2238, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0484, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0037 }, { "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "hitter_id": 680757, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1010, "under_odds": -1720, "expected_home_runs": 0.136, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1272, "model_over_probability": 0.1272, "model_under_probability": 0.8728, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0901, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9451, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.087, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.913, "edge_over": 0.0371, "edge_under": -0.0723, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0371, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.088, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.27, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1272, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1317, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.113, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.136, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1323, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1237, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1301, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1212, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0336, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0371, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0416, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0435, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.04, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0435, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0311, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0245, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1323, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 128, "edge_direction_rank": 116, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.087, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09064212526613277, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1237, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9093578747338672, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0036421252661327785, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.136, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.136, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12427711511453651, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8757228848854635, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.03727711511453652, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.113, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.113, "valinor_prob_under": 0.887, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0229, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03363498984840374, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1237, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0336, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0435 }, { "hitter_name": "Geraldo Perdomo", "hitter_id": 672695, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 915, "under_odds": -1605, "expected_home_runs": 0.1455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1354, "model_over_probability": 0.1354, "model_under_probability": 0.8646, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0985, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0947, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9053, "edge_over": 0.0369, "edge_under": -0.0767, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0369, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9525, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.99, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 107.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.4, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.2, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1354, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1633, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.094, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1194, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1648, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1712, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1843, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1604, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0727, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0369, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0648, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0736, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0045, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0858, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0736, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0619, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.4, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1648, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 129, "edge_direction_rank": 117, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0947, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 14.2, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 14.2, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1273362838042454, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1712, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8726637161957547, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.03263628380424538, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1455, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1455, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.04212153377639674, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.094, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.094, "valinor_prob_under": 0.906, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0045, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04282153377639675, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1712, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0727, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0736 }, { "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "hitter_id": 686948, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -740, "expected_home_runs": 0.2163, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1945, "model_over_probability": 0.1945, "model_under_probability": 0.8055, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.881, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1526, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8474, "edge_over": 0.0358, "edge_under": -0.0755, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0358, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.884, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.26, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1945, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1828, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1368, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1561, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1822, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1675, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2112, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1835, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0088, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0358, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0241, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0204, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0219, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0525, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0204, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0248, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0967, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1822, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 130, "edge_direction_rank": 118, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1526, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.26, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.26, "palantir_prob_over": 0.124549802785486, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1675, "palantir_prob_under": 0.875450197214514, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.028050197214514017, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2163, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2163, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.013760305076076618, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1368, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1368, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8632, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0219, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.014289892138437399, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1675, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0088, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0204 }, { "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_id": 641355, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2389, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2125, "model_over_probability": 0.2125, "model_under_probability": 0.7875, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0355, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0355, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9856, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.155, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.019, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2125, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1871, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.149, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.166, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1858, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2238, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2066, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1794, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0468, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0355, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0101, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0021, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.028, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0296, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0021, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0024, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0313, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1858, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 131, "edge_direction_rank": 119, "value_score": 26.9, "value_rank": 44, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.39, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.39, "palantir_prob_over": 0.16532979907378428, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2238, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8346702009262157, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0468, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2389, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2389, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0021, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.149, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.149, "valinor_prob_under": 0.851, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.028, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.026490104149860888, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2238, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "hitter_id": 680757, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 990, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.136, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1272, "model_over_probability": 0.1272, "model_under_probability": 0.8728, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0917, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0355, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0355, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.088, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.27, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1272, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1317, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.113, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.136, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1323, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1237, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1301, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1212, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.032, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0355, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.04, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0419, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0213, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0384, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0419, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0295, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0245, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1323, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 132, "edge_direction_rank": 120, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09064212526613277, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1237, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9093578747338672, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.032, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.136, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.136, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12427711511453651, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8757228848854635, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0419, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.113, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.113, "valinor_prob_under": 0.887, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0213, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03363498984840374, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1237, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "hitter_id": 663586, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": -685, "expected_home_runs": 0.227, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2031, "model_over_probability": 0.2031, "model_under_probability": 0.7969, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1615, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8385, "edge_over": 0.035, "edge_under": -0.0757, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.035, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9116, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.884, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.31, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2031, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1531, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1456, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1633, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1543, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1637, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1616, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1429, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0044, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.035, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.015, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0259, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0225, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0065, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0259, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0252, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1543, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 31, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 133, "edge_direction_rank": 121, "value_score": 21.7, "value_rank": 46, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1615, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.54, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.54, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12167387607908124, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1637, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8783261239209188, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03982612392091876, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.227, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.227, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.03418364273285779, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1456, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1456, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8544, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0225, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.023926123920918765, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1637, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0044, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0259 }, { "hitter_name": "Steven Kwan", "hitter_id": 680757, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 985, "under_odds": -1815, "expected_home_runs": 0.136, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1272, "model_over_probability": 0.1272, "model_under_probability": 0.8728, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0922, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9478, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0887, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9113, "edge_over": 0.035, "edge_under": -0.075, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.035, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.088, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 104.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 11.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.27, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1272, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1317, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.113, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.136, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1323, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1237, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1301, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1212, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0315, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.035, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0395, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0414, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0208, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0379, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0414, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.029, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0245, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1323, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 134, "edge_direction_rank": 122, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0887, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09064212526613277, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1237, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9093578747338672, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0019421252661327715, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.136, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.136, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12427711511453651, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8757228848854635, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.03557711511453651, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.113, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.113, "valinor_prob_under": 0.887, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0208, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03363498984840374, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1237, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0315, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0414 }, { "hitter_name": "Brendan Donovan", "hitter_id": 680977, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 890, "under_odds": -1410, "expected_home_runs": 0.146, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1358, "model_over_probability": 0.1358, "model_under_probability": 0.8642, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.101, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9338, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0976, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9024, "edge_over": 0.0348, "edge_under": -0.0696, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0348, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.945, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.3, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.3, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1358, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1403, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0905, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1162, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1409, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1178, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1458, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1316, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0168, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0348, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0393, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0412, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0105, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0448, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0412, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0306, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0792, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1409, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 48, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 135, "edge_direction_rank": 123, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0976, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.3, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.3, "palantir_prob_over": 0.08597031447299405, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1178, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9140296855270059, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.011629685527005953, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.146, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.146, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.02971635726714221, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0905, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0905, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9095, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0105, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04134604279414816, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1178, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0168, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0412 }, { "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "hitter_id": 686948, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2163, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1945, "model_over_probability": 0.1945, "model_under_probability": 0.8055, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0345, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0345, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.884, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.26, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1945, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1828, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1368, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1561, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1822, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1675, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2112, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1835, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0075, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0345, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0228, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0191, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0232, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0512, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0191, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0235, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0967, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1822, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 136, "edge_direction_rank": 124, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.26, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.26, "palantir_prob_over": 0.124549802785486, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1675, "palantir_prob_under": 0.875450197214514, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0075, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2163, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2163, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0191, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1368, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1368, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8632, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0232, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.014289892138437399, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1675, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_id": 683002, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.2453, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2175, "model_over_probability": 0.2175, "model_under_probability": 0.7825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1774, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8226, "edge_over": 0.034, "edge_under": -0.0682, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.034, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9873, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.7, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.1, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2175, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1557, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1564, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.172, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1572, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1917, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1627, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1437, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0082, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.034, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0278, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0413, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0271, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0208, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0413, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0398, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.276, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1572, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 138, "edge_direction_rank": 125, "value_score": 29.4, "value_rank": 32, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1774, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 21.69, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 21.69, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1425153868603433, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1917, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8574846131396567, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03488461313965671, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2453, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2453, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.050083642732857786, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1564, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1564, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8436, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0271, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.029083642732857795, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1917, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0082, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0413 }, { "hitter_name": "Gunnar Henderson", "hitter_id": 683002, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2453, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2175, "model_over_probability": 0.2175, "model_under_probability": 0.7825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.034, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.034, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9873, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.7, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.1, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2175, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1557, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1564, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.172, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1572, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1917, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1627, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1437, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0082, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.034, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0278, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0413, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0271, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0208, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0413, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0398, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.276, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1572, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 139, "edge_direction_rank": 126, "value_score": 29.4, "value_rank": 33, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 21.69, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 21.69, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1425153868603433, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1917, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8574846131396567, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0082, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2453, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2453, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0413, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1564, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1564, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8436, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0271, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.029083642732857795, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1917, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "hitter_id": 641355, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -600, "expected_home_runs": 0.2389, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2125, "model_over_probability": 0.2125, "model_under_probability": 0.7875, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8571, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8276, "edge_over": 0.0339, "edge_under": -0.0696, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0339, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9856, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.5, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.155, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.019, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2125, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1871, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.149, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.166, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1858, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2238, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2066, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1794, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0452, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0339, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0085, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0005, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0296, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.028, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0008, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0313, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1858, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 140, "edge_direction_rank": 127, "value_score": 26.6, "value_rank": 45, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1724, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.39, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.39, "palantir_prob_over": 0.16532979907378428, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2238, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8346702009262157, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.007070200926215714, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2389, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2389, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0335603050760766, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.149, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.149, "valinor_prob_under": 0.851, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0296, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.026490104149860888, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2238, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0452, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0005 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "hitter_id": 663586, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": -640, "expected_home_runs": 0.227, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2031, "model_over_probability": 0.2031, "model_under_probability": 0.7969, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8649, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1639, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8361, "edge_over": 0.0336, "edge_under": -0.068, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0336, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9116, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.884, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.31, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2031, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1531, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1456, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1633, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1543, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1637, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1616, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1429, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0058, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0336, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0164, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0273, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0239, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0079, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0273, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0266, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1543, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 31, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 141, "edge_direction_rank": 128, "value_score": 21.6, "value_rank": 47, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1639, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.54, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.54, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12167387607908124, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1637, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8783261239209188, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.04222612392091875, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.227, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.227, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.036583642732857774, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1456, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1456, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8544, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0239, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.023926123920918765, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1637, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0058, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0273 }, { "hitter_name": "Austin Riley", "hitter_id": 663586, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.227, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2031, "model_over_probability": 0.2031, "model_under_probability": 0.7969, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0336, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0336, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9116, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.884, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.31, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.54, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2031, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1531, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1456, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1633, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1543, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1637, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1616, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1429, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0058, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0336, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0164, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0273, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0239, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0079, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0273, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0266, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2233, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1543, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 31, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 142, "edge_direction_rank": 129, "value_score": 21.6, "value_rank": 48, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.54, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.54, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12167387607908124, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1637, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8783261239209188, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0058, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.227, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.227, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0273, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1456, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1456, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8544, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0239, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.023926123920918765, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1637, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "hitter_id": 686948, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -695, "expected_home_runs": 0.2163, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1945, "model_over_probability": 0.1945, "model_under_probability": 0.8055, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8742, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1558, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8442, "edge_over": 0.0332, "edge_under": -0.0687, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0332, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.884, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.26, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.26, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1945, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1828, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1368, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1561, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1822, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1675, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2112, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1835, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0062, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0332, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0215, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0178, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0245, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0499, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0178, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0222, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0967, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1822, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 145, "edge_direction_rank": 132, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1558, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.26, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.26, "palantir_prob_over": 0.124549802785486, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1675, "palantir_prob_under": 0.875450197214514, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.031250197214514, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2163, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2163, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0169603050760766, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1368, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1368, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8632, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0245, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.014289892138437399, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1675, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0062, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0178 }, { "hitter_name": "Brendan Donovan", "hitter_id": 680977, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 875, "under_odds": -1495, "expected_home_runs": 0.146, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1358, "model_over_probability": 0.1358, "model_under_probability": 0.8642, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1026, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9373, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0987, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9013, "edge_over": 0.0332, "edge_under": -0.0731, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0332, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.945, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.3, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.3, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1358, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1403, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0905, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1162, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1409, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1178, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1458, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1316, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0152, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0332, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0377, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0396, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0121, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0432, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0396, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.029, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0792, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1409, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 48, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 143, "edge_direction_rank": 130, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0987, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.3, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.3, "palantir_prob_over": 0.08597031447299405, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1178, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9140296855270059, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.012729685527005943, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.146, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.146, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.02861635726714222, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0905, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0905, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9095, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0121, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04134604279414816, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1178, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0152, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0396 }, { "hitter_name": "Brendan Donovan", "hitter_id": 680977, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 875, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.146, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1358, "model_over_probability": 0.1358, "model_under_probability": 0.8642, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1026, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0332, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0332, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.945, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.95, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.3, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.3, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1358, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1403, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0905, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1162, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1409, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1178, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1458, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1316, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0152, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0332, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0377, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0396, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0121, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0432, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0396, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.029, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0792, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1409, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 48, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 144, "edge_direction_rank": 131, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.3, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.3, "palantir_prob_over": 0.08597031447299405, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1178, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9140296855270059, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0152, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.146, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.146, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0396, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0905, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0905, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9095, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0121, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04134604279414816, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1178, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "hitter_id": 687363, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.1192, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1124, "model_over_probability": 0.1124, "model_under_probability": 0.8876, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": 0.0324, "edge_under": -0.0674, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0324, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.215, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.007, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 1.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.25, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.25, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1124, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0135, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1244, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1457, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0225, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0964, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0317, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0708, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0164, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0324, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0665, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.08, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0444, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0483, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0092, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.73, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0225, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 146, "edge_direction_rank": 133, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0773, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 4.25, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 4.25, "palantir_prob_over": 0.06891243358580477, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0964, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9310875664141952, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.008387566414195219, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1192, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1192, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0004343065256035067, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9995656934743965, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0768656934743965, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1244, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1244, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8756, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0444, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.1239656934743965, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0964, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0164, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.08 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "hitter_id": 687363, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.1192, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1124, "model_over_probability": 0.1124, "model_under_probability": 0.8876, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": 0.0324, "edge_under": -0.0724, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0324, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.215, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.007, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 1.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.25, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.25, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1124, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0135, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1244, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1457, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0225, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0964, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0317, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0708, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0164, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0324, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0665, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.08, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0444, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0483, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0092, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.73, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0225, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 147, "edge_direction_rank": 134, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0769, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 4.25, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 4.25, "palantir_prob_over": 0.06891243358580477, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0964, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9310875664141952, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.007987566414195221, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1192, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1192, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0004343065256035067, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9995656934743965, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0764656934743965, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1244, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1244, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8756, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0444, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.1239656934743965, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0964, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0164, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.08 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Scott II", "hitter_id": 687363, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1192, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1124, "model_over_probability": 0.1124, "model_under_probability": 0.8876, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0324, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0324, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; late_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.215, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.007, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 1.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.25, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.25, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1124, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0135, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1244, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1457, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0225, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0964, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0317, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0708, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0164, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0324, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0665, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.08, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0444, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0483, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.08, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0092, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.73, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0225, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 148, "edge_direction_rank": 135, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 4.25, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 4.25, "palantir_prob_over": 0.06891243358580477, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0964, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9310875664141952, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0164, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1192, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1192, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0004343065256035067, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9995656934743965, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.08, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1244, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1244, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8756, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0444, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.1239656934743965, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0964, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "hitter_id": 670623, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -745, "expected_home_runs": 0.2096, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1891, "model_over_probability": 0.1891, "model_under_probability": 0.8109, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8817, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1525, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8475, "edge_over": 0.0304, "edge_under": -0.0708, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0304, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8938, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.97, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.117, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.16, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.16, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1891, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.165, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1447, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1626, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1637, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1658, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1777, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1552, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0071, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0304, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0063, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0014, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.014, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.019, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0014, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0035, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0667, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1637, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 149, "edge_direction_rank": 136, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1525, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.16, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.16, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12326495373044412, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1658, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8767350462695559, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.029235046269555878, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2096, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2096, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.020192524513051563, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1447, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1447, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8553, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.014, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.021435046269555877, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1658, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0071, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0014 }, { "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "hitter_id": 621439, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -465, "expected_home_runs": 0.1592, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1472, "model_over_probability": 0.1472, "model_under_probability": 0.8528, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.823, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2054, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7946, "edge_over": -0.0656, "edge_under": 0.0298, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0298, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8585, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.7, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.73, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.73, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1472, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1527, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1394, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1582, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1534, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1456, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1679, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1476, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0672, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0656, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0601, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0578, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0734, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0449, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0578, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0652, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1542, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1534, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 150, "edge_direction_rank": 6, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2054, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 23.73, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 23.73, "palantir_prob_over": 0.10779085852571624, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1456, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8922091414742838, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.09760914147428376, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1592, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1592, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13157369951952264, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8684263004804773, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.07382630048047736, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1394, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1394, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8606, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0734, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03160914147428376, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1456, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0672, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0578 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "hitter_id": 670623, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": -700, "expected_home_runs": 0.2096, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1891, "model_over_probability": 0.1891, "model_under_probability": 0.8109, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.875, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1546, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8454, "edge_over": 0.0291, "edge_under": -0.0641, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0291, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8938, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.97, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.117, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.16, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.16, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1891, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.165, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1447, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1626, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1637, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1658, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1777, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1552, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0058, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0291, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.005, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0027, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0153, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0177, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0048, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0667, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1637, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 152, "edge_direction_rank": 137, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1546, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.16, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.16, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12326495373044412, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1658, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8767350462695559, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03133504626955587, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2096, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2096, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.022292524513051554, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1447, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1447, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8553, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0153, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.021435046269555877, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1658, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0058, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0027 }, { "hitter_name": "Isaac Paredes", "hitter_id": 670623, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2096, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1891, "model_over_probability": 0.1891, "model_under_probability": 0.8109, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0291, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0291, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8938, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.97, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.117, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.16, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.16, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1891, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.165, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1447, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1626, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1637, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1658, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1777, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1552, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0058, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0291, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.005, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0027, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0153, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0177, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0048, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0667, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1637, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 153, "edge_direction_rank": 138, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.16, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.16, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12326495373044412, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1658, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8767350462695559, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0058, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2096, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2096, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0027, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1447, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1447, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8553, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0153, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.021435046269555877, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1658, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "hitter_id": 665489, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -650, "expected_home_runs": 0.2236, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2004, "model_over_probability": 0.2004, "model_under_probability": 0.7996, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8667, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1671, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8329, "edge_over": 0.0265, "edge_under": -0.0671, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0265, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.038, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.007, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2004, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1842, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1438, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1618, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1834, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1914, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2163, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1881, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0175, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0265, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0103, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0052, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0301, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0424, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0052, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0142, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.09, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1834, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 154, "edge_direction_rank": 139, "value_score": 19.1, "value_rank": 52, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1671, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 23.75, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 23.75, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1422965473056531, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1914, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8577034526943469, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.02480345269434689, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2236, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2236, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.028260305076076603, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1438, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1438, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8562, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0301, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.004960305076076615, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1914, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0175, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0052 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "hitter_id": 656941, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": -345, "expected_home_runs": 0.2214, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1986, "model_over_probability": 0.1986, "model_under_probability": 0.8014, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7753, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2534, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7466, "edge_over": -0.0646, "edge_under": 0.0261, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0261, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.944, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 44.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 41.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 41.67, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 41.67, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1986, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1785, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1418, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1602, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1774, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1892, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1876, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1631, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.074, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0646, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0847, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0911, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1214, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0756, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0911, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1001, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0616, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1774, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 155, "edge_direction_rank": 7, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2534, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 41.67, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 41.67, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1406886582279745, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1892, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8593113417720255, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.11271134177202552, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2214, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2214, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.11657846622360327, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1418, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1418, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8582, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1214, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.004978466223603262, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1892, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.074, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0911 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "hitter_id": 592206, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": -825, "expected_home_runs": 0.1911, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.174, "model_over_probability": 0.174, "model_under_probability": 0.826, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8919, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1424, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8576, "edge_over": 0.0259, "edge_under": -0.0659, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0259, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9343, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.21, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.865, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.973, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.33, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.174, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1448, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1252, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1464, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1432, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1536, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1404, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1279, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0055, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0259, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0033, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0126, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0077, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0126, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0202, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2086, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1432, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 156, "edge_direction_rank": 140, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1424, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.33, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.33, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11396316811053955, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1536, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8860368318894605, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.028436831889460445, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1911, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1911, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12496178595996184, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8750382140400381, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.01743821404003816, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1252, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1252, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8748, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0229, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.011236831889460452, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1536, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0055, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0126 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "hitter_id": 630105, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 905, "under_odds": -1450, "expected_home_runs": 0.1331, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1246, "model_over_probability": 0.1246, "model_under_probability": 0.8754, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0995, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9355, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0961, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9039, "edge_over": 0.0251, "edge_under": -0.0601, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0251, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9469, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.865, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.973, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.92, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.92, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1246, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.115, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1108, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0737, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1007, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1136, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1149, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1052, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1061, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0154, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0251, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0155, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0113, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0258, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0057, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0113, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0066, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1108, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1646, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1136, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 54, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 157, "edge_direction_rank": 141, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0961, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.92, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.92, "palantir_prob_over": 0.08366772622487063, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1149, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9163322737751294, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.012432273775129371, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1331, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1331, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1154028469812936, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1108, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8845971530187065, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0193028469812936, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0737, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0737, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9263, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0258, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.041702846981293604, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1149, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0154, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1108, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0113 }, { "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "hitter_id": 665489, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2236, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2004, "model_over_probability": 0.2004, "model_under_probability": 0.7996, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.025, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.025, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.038, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.007, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2004, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1842, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1438, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1618, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1834, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1914, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2163, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1881, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.016, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.025, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0088, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0037, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0316, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0409, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0037, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0127, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.09, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1834, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 158, "edge_direction_rank": 142, "value_score": 18.9, "value_rank": 53, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 23.75, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 23.75, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1422965473056531, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1914, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8577034526943469, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.016, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2236, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2236, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0037, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1438, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1438, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8562, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0316, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.004960305076076615, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1914, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "hitter_id": 592206, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": -775, "expected_home_runs": 0.1911, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.174, "model_over_probability": 0.174, "model_under_probability": 0.826, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8857, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1443, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8557, "edge_over": 0.0247, "edge_under": -0.0597, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0247, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9343, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.21, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.865, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.973, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.33, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.174, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1448, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1252, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1464, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1432, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1536, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1404, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1279, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0043, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0247, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0045, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0138, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0241, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0089, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0138, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0214, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2086, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1432, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 159, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1443, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.33, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.33, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11396316811053955, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1536, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8860368318894605, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03033683188946046, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1911, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1911, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12496178595996184, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8750382140400381, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.019338214040038174, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1252, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1252, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8748, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0241, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.011236831889460452, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1536, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0043, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0138 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "hitter_id": 592206, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 570, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1911, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.174, "model_over_probability": 0.174, "model_under_probability": 0.826, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1493, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0247, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0247, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9343, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.21, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.865, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.973, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.33, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.174, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1448, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1252, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1464, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1432, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1536, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1404, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1279, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0043, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0247, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0045, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0138, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0241, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0089, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0138, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0214, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2086, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1432, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 160, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.33, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.33, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11396316811053955, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1536, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8860368318894605, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0043, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1911, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1911, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12496178595996184, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1355, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8750382140400381, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0138, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1252, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1252, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8748, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0241, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.011236831889460452, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1536, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "hitter_id": 630105, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 890, "under_odds": -1535, "expected_home_runs": 0.1331, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1246, "model_over_probability": 0.1246, "model_under_probability": 0.8754, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.101, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9388, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0971, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9029, "edge_over": 0.0236, "edge_under": -0.0634, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0236, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9469, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.865, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.973, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.92, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.92, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1246, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.115, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1108, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0737, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1007, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1136, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1149, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1052, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1061, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0139, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0236, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.014, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0098, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0273, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0042, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0098, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0051, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1108, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1646, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1136, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 54, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 162, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0971, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.92, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.92, "palantir_prob_over": 0.08366772622487063, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1149, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9163322737751294, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.013432273775129372, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1331, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1331, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1154028469812936, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1108, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8845971530187065, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0183028469812936, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0737, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0737, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9263, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0273, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.041702846981293604, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1149, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0139, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1108, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0098 }, { "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "hitter_id": 630105, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 890, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1331, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1246, "model_over_probability": 0.1246, "model_under_probability": 0.8754, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.101, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0236, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0236, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9469, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.865, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.973, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.92, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.92, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1246, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.115, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1108, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0737, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1007, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1136, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1149, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1052, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1061, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0139, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0236, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.014, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0098, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0273, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0042, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0098, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0051, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1108, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1646, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1136, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 54, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 163, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.92, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.92, "palantir_prob_over": 0.08366772622487063, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1149, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9163322737751294, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0139, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1331, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1331, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1154028469812936, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1108, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8845971530187065, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0098, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0737, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0737, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9263, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0273, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.041702846981293604, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1149, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1108, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Vladimir Guerrero Jr.", "hitter_id": 665489, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -610, "expected_home_runs": 0.2236, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2004, "model_over_probability": 0.2004, "model_under_probability": 0.7996, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8592, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1708, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8292, "edge_over": 0.0234, "edge_under": -0.0596, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0234, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.038, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.007, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.25, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.75, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2004, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1842, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1438, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1618, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1834, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1914, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2163, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1881, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0144, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0234, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0072, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0021, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0332, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0393, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0021, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0111, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.09, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1834, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 164, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1708, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 23.75, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 23.75, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1422965473056531, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1914, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8577034526943469, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.028503452694346898, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2236, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2236, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.03196030507607661, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1438, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1438, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8562, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0332, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.004960305076076615, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1914, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0144, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0021 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "hitter_id": 687263, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": -670, "expected_home_runs": 0.2135, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1922, "model_over_probability": 0.1922, "model_under_probability": 0.8078, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8701, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.163, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.837, "edge_over": 0.0227, "edge_under": -0.0623, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0227, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8941, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.33, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1922, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1831, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1108, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1341, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1818, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2066, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2175, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1893, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0371, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0227, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0136, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0096, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0587, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.048, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0198, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.149, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1818, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 166, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.163, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 21.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 21.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15325560806593208, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2066, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8467443919340679, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.009744391934067925, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2135, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2135, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.02416030507607661, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1108, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1108, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8892, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0587, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.042455608065932085, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2066, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0371, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0096 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_id": 572233, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -615, "expected_home_runs": 0.2258, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2021, "model_over_probability": 0.2021, "model_under_probability": 0.7979, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8601, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1732, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8268, "edge_over": 0.0219, "edge_under": -0.0622, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0219, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9298, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.117, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.83, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2021, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1654, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1514, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.168, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1663, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.194, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1797, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1568, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0138, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0219, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0148, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0229, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0288, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0234, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1227, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1663, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 167, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1732, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.83, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.83, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14418980369474613, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.194, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8558101963052539, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.029010196305253866, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2258, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2258, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.04089252451305156, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1514, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1514, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8486, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0288, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.019092524513051573, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.194, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0138, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0229 }, { "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "hitter_id": 660670, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": -560, "expected_home_runs": 0.2384, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2121, "model_over_probability": 0.2121, "model_under_probability": 0.7879, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8485, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1833, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8167, "edge_over": 0.0216, "edge_under": -0.0606, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0216, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8813, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.28, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.884, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.17, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2121, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1817, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1553, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1712, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1801, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2043, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1958, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.17, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0138, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0216, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0088, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0184, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0352, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0053, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0184, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0205, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.086, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1801, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 31, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 169, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1833, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.17, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.17, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15161443067524513, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2043, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8483855693247548, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03168556932475486, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2384, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2384, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.04647846622360324, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1553, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1553, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8447, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0352, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.018478466223603246, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2043, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0138, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0184 }, { "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_id": 682998, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -610, "expected_home_runs": 0.2274, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2034, "model_over_probability": 0.2034, "model_under_probability": 0.7966, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8592, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1746, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8254, "edge_over": 0.0216, "edge_under": -0.0626, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0216, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9775, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.66, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.99, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.2, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 26.45, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2034, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.185, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.125, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1462, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.184, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2138, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.212, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1843, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.032, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0216, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0032, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0027, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0568, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0302, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0025, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.048, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.184, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 168, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1746, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 26.45, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 26.45, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15835294738800323, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2138, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8416470526119968, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.01624705261199677, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2274, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2274, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.03576030507607661, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.125, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.125, "valinor_prob_under": 0.875, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0568, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.033352947388003235, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2138, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.032, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0027 }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_id": 621566, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -475, "expected_home_runs": 0.2669, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2343, "model_over_probability": 0.2343, "model_under_probability": 0.7657, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2048, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7952, "edge_over": 0.0215, "edge_under": -0.0604, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0215, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.884, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.19, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 30.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2343, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1891, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1515, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1681, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1902, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2187, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1974, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1714, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0059, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0215, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0237, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0337, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0613, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0154, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0337, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0414, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1761, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1902, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 31, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 170, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2048, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 30.51, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 30.51, "palantir_prob_over": 0.16178666803693664, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2187, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8382133319630634, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.04301333196306337, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2669, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2669, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.06596030507607661, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1515, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1515, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8485, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0613, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.022946973113013247, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2187, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0059, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0337 }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "hitter_id": 687263, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2135, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1922, "model_over_probability": 0.1922, "model_under_probability": 0.8078, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0213, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0213, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8941, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.33, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1922, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1831, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1108, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1341, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1818, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2066, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2175, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1893, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0357, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0213, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0122, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0082, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0601, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0466, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0184, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.149, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1818, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 171, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 21.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 21.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15325560806593208, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2066, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8467443919340679, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0357, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2135, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2135, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0082, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1108, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1108, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8892, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0601, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.042455608065932085, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2066, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_id": 572233, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2258, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2021, "model_over_probability": 0.2021, "model_under_probability": 0.7979, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0203, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0203, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9298, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.117, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.83, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2021, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1654, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1514, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.168, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1663, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.194, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1797, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1568, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0122, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0203, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0164, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0245, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0304, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0021, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0245, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.025, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1227, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1663, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 172, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.83, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.83, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14418980369474613, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.194, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8558101963052539, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0122, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2258, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2258, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0245, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1514, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1514, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8486, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0304, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.019092524513051573, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.194, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_id": 682998, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2274, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2034, "model_over_probability": 0.2034, "model_under_probability": 0.7966, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0199, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0199, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9775, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.66, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.99, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.2, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 26.45, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2034, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.185, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.125, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1462, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.184, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2138, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.212, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1843, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0303, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0199, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0015, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0044, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0585, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0285, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0044, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0008, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.048, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.184, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 173, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 26.45, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 26.45, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15835294738800323, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2138, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8416470526119968, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0303, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2274, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2274, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0044, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.125, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.125, "valinor_prob_under": 0.875, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0585, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.033352947388003235, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2138, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Zach Neto", "hitter_id": 687263, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": -630, "expected_home_runs": 0.2135, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1922, "model_over_probability": 0.1922, "model_under_probability": 0.8078, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.863, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8335, "edge_over": 0.0198, "edge_under": -0.0552, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0198, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8941, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.33, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.68, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.68, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1922, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1831, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1108, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1341, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1818, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2066, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2175, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1893, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0342, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0198, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0107, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0067, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0616, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0451, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0067, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0169, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.149, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1818, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 175, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1665, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 21.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 21.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15325560806593208, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2066, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8467443919340679, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.013244391934067928, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2135, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2135, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.027660305076076613, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1108, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1108, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8892, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0616, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.042455608065932085, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2066, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0342, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0067 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "hitter_id": 701538, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -725, "expected_home_runs": 0.1997, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.181, "model_over_probability": 0.181, "model_under_probability": 0.819, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8788, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1551, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8449, "edge_over": 0.0197, "edge_under": -0.0598, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0197, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9544, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.865, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.973, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.49, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.181, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1239, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1114, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.133, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1529, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1253, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1679, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.113, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1106, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0066, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0197, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0374, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0499, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0283, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0483, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0499, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0507, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1114, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3995, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1253, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 176, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1551, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.49, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.49, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12485170462515598, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1679, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8751482953748441, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03024829537484401, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1997, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1997, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.11565351124852608, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1114, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8843464887514739, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.03944648875147391, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.133, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.133, "valinor_prob_under": 0.867, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0283, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.017346488751473932, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1679, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0066, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1114, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0499 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "hitter_id": 575929, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": -750, "expected_home_runs": 0.1949, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1771, "model_over_probability": 0.1771, "model_under_probability": 0.8229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8824, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8485, "edge_over": 0.0196, "edge_under": -0.0595, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0196, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8906, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.13, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.024, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.983, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1771, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1505, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1325, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1525, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1491, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1865, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1645, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.145, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.029, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0196, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.007, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0153, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.025, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.007, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0153, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0125, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0778, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1491, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 177, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1515, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.06, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.06, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13870801478052633, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1865, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8612919852194737, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.012791985219473667, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1949, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1949, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.02418364273285778, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1325, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1325, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8674999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.025, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.011391657513384112, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1865, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.029, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0153 }, { "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "hitter_id": 621439, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 385, "under_odds": -500, "expected_home_runs": 0.1592, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1472, "model_over_probability": 0.1472, "model_under_probability": 0.8528, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2062, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8333, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1984, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8016, "edge_over": -0.059, "edge_under": 0.0195, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0195, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8585, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.7, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.73, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.73, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1472, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1527, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1394, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1582, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1534, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1456, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1679, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1476, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0606, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.059, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0535, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0512, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0668, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0383, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0512, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0586, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1542, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1534, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 178, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1984, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 23.73, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 23.73, "palantir_prob_over": 0.10779085852571624, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1456, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8922091414742838, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.09060914147428376, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1592, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1592, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13157369951952264, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8684263004804773, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.06682630048047736, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1394, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1394, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8606, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0668, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03160914147428376, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1456, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0606, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0512 }, { "hitter_name": "George Springer", "hitter_id": 543807, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -605, "expected_home_runs": 0.2246, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2012, "model_over_probability": 0.2012, "model_under_probability": 0.7988, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8582, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1748, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8252, "edge_over": 0.0194, "edge_under": -0.0594, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0194, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9701, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.63, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.038, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.007, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.13, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.97, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2012, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1791, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1438, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1618, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1779, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2084, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1946, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.169, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0266, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0194, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0027, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0097, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.038, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0128, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0097, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0128, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0363, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1779, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 179, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1748, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.97, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.97, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1545356838689084, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2084, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8454643161310916, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.020264316131091614, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2246, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2246, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.03797846622360326, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1438, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1438, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8562, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.038, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01771415009251165, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2084, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0266, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0097 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "hitter_id": 701762, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 265, "under_odds": -320, "expected_home_runs": 0.2473, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2191, "model_over_probability": 0.2191, "model_under_probability": 0.7809, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2645, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7355, "edge_over": -0.0549, "edge_under": 0.019, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.019, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.946, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.53, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.176, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.61, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.38, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 30.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2191, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.156, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1287, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1493, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1575, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2152, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1448, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1309, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0588, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0549, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.118, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1318, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1453, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1292, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1318, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1431, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3674, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1575, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 180, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2645, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 30.38, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 30.38, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1593369468073057, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2152, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8406630531926943, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.10516305319269431, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2473, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2473, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1371836427328578, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1287, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1287, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8713, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1453, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.032020589540163485, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2152, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0588, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1318 }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "hitter_id": 593871, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": -675, "expected_home_runs": 0.2068, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1868, "model_over_probability": 0.1868, "model_under_probability": 0.8132, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.871, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1618, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8382, "edge_over": 0.0187, "edge_under": -0.0578, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0187, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9109, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.006, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.71, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1868, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1814, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1506, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1673, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1807, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1842, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2043, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1774, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0161, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0187, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0133, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.011, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0175, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0362, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0093, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1053, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1807, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 181, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1618, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.71, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.71, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1370144942844867, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1842, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8629855057155134, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0247855057155133, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2068, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2068, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.022960305076076604, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1506, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1506, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8493999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0175, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.013585505715513313, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1842, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0161, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.011 }, { "hitter_name": "Christian Walker", "hitter_id": 572233, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": -575, "expected_home_runs": 0.2258, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2021, "model_over_probability": 0.2021, "model_under_probability": 0.7979, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8519, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1772, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8228, "edge_over": 0.0186, "edge_under": -0.054, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0186, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9298, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.117, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.83, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2021, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1654, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1514, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.168, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1663, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.194, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1797, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1568, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0105, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0186, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0181, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0262, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0321, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0038, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0262, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0267, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1227, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1663, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 182, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1772, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.83, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.83, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14418980369474613, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.194, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8558101963052539, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03301019630525387, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2258, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2258, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.04489252451305156, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1514, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1514, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8486, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0321, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.019092524513051573, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.194, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0105, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0262 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "hitter_id": 701538, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": -680, "expected_home_runs": 0.1997, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.181, "model_over_probability": 0.181, "model_under_probability": 0.819, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8718, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8428, "edge_over": 0.0184, "edge_under": -0.0528, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0184, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9544, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.865, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.973, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.49, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.181, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1239, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1114, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.133, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1529, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1253, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1679, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.113, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1106, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0053, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0184, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0387, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0512, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0296, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0496, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0512, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.052, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1114, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3995, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1253, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 184, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1572, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.49, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.49, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12485170462515598, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1679, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8751482953748441, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03234829537484403, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1997, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1997, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.11565351124852608, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1114, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8843464887514739, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.04154648875147393, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.133, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.133, "valinor_prob_under": 0.867, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0296, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.017346488751473932, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1679, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0053, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1114, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0512 }, { "hitter_name": "Jackson Merrill", "hitter_id": 701538, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1997, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.181, "model_over_probability": 0.181, "model_under_probability": 0.819, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0184, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0184, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9544, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.38, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.865, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.973, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.49, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.49, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.181, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1239, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1114, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.133, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1529, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1253, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1679, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.113, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1106, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0053, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0184, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0387, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0512, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0296, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0496, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0512, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.052, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1114, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3995, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1253, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 185, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.49, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.49, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12485170462515598, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1679, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8751482953748441, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0053, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1997, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1997, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.11565351124852608, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1114, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8843464887514739, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0512, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.133, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.133, "valinor_prob_under": 0.867, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0296, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.017346488751473932, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1679, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1114, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "hitter_id": 575929, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -705, "expected_home_runs": 0.1949, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1771, "model_over_probability": 0.1771, "model_under_probability": 0.8229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8758, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1534, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8466, "edge_over": 0.0184, "edge_under": -0.0529, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0184, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8906, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.13, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.024, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.983, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1771, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1505, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1325, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1525, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1491, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1865, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1645, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.145, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0278, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0184, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0082, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0165, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0262, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0058, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0165, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0137, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0778, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1491, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 186, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1534, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.06, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.06, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13870801478052633, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1865, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8612919852194737, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.01469198521947368, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1949, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1949, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.026083642732857792, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1325, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1325, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8674999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0262, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.011391657513384112, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1865, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0278, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0165 }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "hitter_id": 575929, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1949, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1771, "model_over_probability": 0.1771, "model_under_probability": 0.8229, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0184, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0184, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8906, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.13, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.024, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.983, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1771, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1505, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1325, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1525, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1491, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1865, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1645, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.145, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0278, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0184, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0082, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0165, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0262, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0058, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0165, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0137, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0778, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1491, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 187, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.06, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.06, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13870801478052633, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1865, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8612919852194737, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0278, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1949, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1949, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0165, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1325, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1325, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8674999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0262, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.011391657513384112, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1865, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Corbin Carroll", "hitter_id": 682998, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.2274, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2034, "model_over_probability": 0.2034, "model_under_probability": 0.7966, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1788, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8212, "edge_over": 0.0182, "edge_under": -0.0541, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0182, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9775, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.66, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.99, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.2, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 26.45, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2034, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.185, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.125, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1462, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.184, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2138, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.212, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1843, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0286, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0182, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0002, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0061, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0602, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0268, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0061, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0009, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.048, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.184, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 188, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1788, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 26.45, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 26.45, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15835294738800323, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2138, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8416470526119968, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.020447052611996752, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2274, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2274, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.03996030507607659, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.125, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.125, "valinor_prob_under": 0.875, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0602, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.033352947388003235, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2138, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0286, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0061 }, { "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "hitter_id": 660670, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 415, "under_odds": -525, "expected_home_runs": 0.2384, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2121, "model_over_probability": 0.2121, "model_under_probability": 0.7879, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1942, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.84, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1878, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8122, "edge_over": 0.0179, "edge_under": -0.0521, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0179, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8813, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.28, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.884, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.17, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2121, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1817, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1553, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1712, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1801, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2043, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1958, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.17, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0101, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0179, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0125, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0221, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0389, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0016, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0221, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0242, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.086, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1801, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 31, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 190, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1878, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.17, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.17, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15161443067524513, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2043, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8483855693247548, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03618556932475486, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2384, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2384, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.05097846622360325, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1553, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1553, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8447, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0389, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.018478466223603246, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2043, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0101, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0221 }, { "hitter_name": "Ronald Acu\u00f1a Jr.", "hitter_id": 660670, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 415, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2384, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2121, "model_over_probability": 0.2121, "model_under_probability": 0.7879, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1942, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0179, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0179, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8813, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.28, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.884, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.17, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2121, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1817, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1553, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1712, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1801, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2043, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1958, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.17, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0101, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0179, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0125, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0221, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0389, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0016, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0221, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0242, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.086, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1801, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 31, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 191, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.17, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.17, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15161443067524513, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2043, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8483855693247548, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0101, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2384, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2384, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0221, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1553, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1553, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8447, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0389, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.018478466223603246, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2043, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "George Springer", "hitter_id": 543807, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 445, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2246, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2012, "model_over_probability": 0.2012, "model_under_probability": 0.7988, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1835, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0177, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0177, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9701, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.63, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.038, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.007, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.13, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.97, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2012, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1791, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1438, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1618, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1779, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2084, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1946, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.169, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0249, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0177, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0044, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0114, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0397, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0111, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0114, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0145, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0363, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1779, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 194, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.97, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.97, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1545356838689084, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2084, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8454643161310916, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0249, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2246, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2246, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0114, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1438, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1438, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8562, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0397, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01771415009251165, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2084, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_id": 621566, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2669, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2343, "model_over_probability": 0.2343, "model_under_probability": 0.7657, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0169, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0169, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.884, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.19, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 30.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2343, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1891, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1515, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1681, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1902, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2187, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1974, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1714, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0013, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0169, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0283, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0383, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0659, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.02, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0383, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.046, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1761, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1902, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 31, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 196, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 30.51, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 30.51, "palantir_prob_over": 0.16178666803693664, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2187, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8382133319630634, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0013, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2669, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2669, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0383, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1515, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1515, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8485, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0659, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.022946973113013247, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2187, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_id": 596019, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": -555, "expected_home_runs": 0.2346, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2091, "model_over_probability": 0.2091, "model_under_probability": 0.7909, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8473, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.185, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.815, "edge_over": 0.0168, "edge_under": -0.0564, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0168, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.006, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 29.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 28.53, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 28.53, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2091, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.181, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1551, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.171, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1795, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2061, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1858, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1617, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0138, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0168, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0113, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0202, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0372, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0065, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0202, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0306, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1238, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1795, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 197, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.185, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 28.53, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 28.53, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15289935660263956, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2061, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8471006433973605, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.032100643397360434, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2346, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2346, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.04817846622360325, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1551, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1551, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8449, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0372, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01827846622360324, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2061, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0138, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0202 }, { "hitter_name": "George Springer", "hitter_id": 543807, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 440, "under_odds": -565, "expected_home_runs": 0.2246, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2012, "model_over_probability": 0.2012, "model_under_probability": 0.7988, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1852, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8496, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.179, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.821, "edge_over": 0.016, "edge_under": -0.0508, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.016, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9701, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.63, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.038, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.007, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.13, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.97, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2012, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1791, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1438, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1618, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1779, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2084, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1946, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.169, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0232, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.016, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0061, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0131, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0414, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0094, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0131, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0162, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0363, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1779, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 201, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.179, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.97, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.97, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1545356838689084, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2084, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8454643161310916, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.024464316131091596, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2246, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2246, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.042178466223603245, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1438, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1438, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8562, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0414, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01771415009251165, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2084, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0232, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0131 }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "hitter_id": 593871, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -635, "expected_home_runs": 0.2068, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1868, "model_over_probability": 0.1868, "model_under_probability": 0.8132, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8639, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1652, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8348, "edge_over": 0.0159, "edge_under": -0.0507, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0159, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9109, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.006, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.71, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1868, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1814, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1506, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1673, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1807, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1842, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2043, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1774, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0133, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0159, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0105, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0082, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0203, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0334, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0065, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1053, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1807, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 202, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1652, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.71, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.71, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1370144942844867, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1842, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8629855057155134, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.028185505715513315, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2068, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2068, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.026360305076076618, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1506, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1506, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8493999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0203, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.013585505715513313, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1842, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0133, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0082 }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Polanco", "hitter_id": 593871, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2068, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1868, "model_over_probability": 0.1868, "model_under_probability": 0.8132, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0159, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0159, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9109, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.006, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.71, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1868, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1814, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1506, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1673, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1807, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1842, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2043, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1774, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0133, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0159, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0105, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0082, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0203, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0334, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0082, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0065, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1053, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1807, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 203, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.71, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.71, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1370144942844867, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1842, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8629855057155134, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0133, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2068, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2068, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0082, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1506, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1506, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8493999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0203, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.013585505715513313, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1842, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_id": 670242, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 395, "under_odds": -500, "expected_home_runs": 0.164, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1513, "model_over_probability": 0.1513, "model_under_probability": 0.8487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.202, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8333, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1951, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8049, "edge_over": -0.0507, "edge_under": 0.0154, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0154, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8404, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1513, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1449, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1385, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1575, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.144, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.149, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1617, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1429, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.053, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0507, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0571, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0598, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0635, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0403, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0598, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0591, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0753, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.144, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 204, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1951, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.72, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.72, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11042077057008809, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.149, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8895792294299119, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0846792294299119, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.164, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.164, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.06778364273285778, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1385, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1385, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8614999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0635, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.028079229429911923, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.149, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.053, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0598 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "hitter_id": 621493, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.2155, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1939, "model_over_probability": 0.1939, "model_under_probability": 0.8061, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8621, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1716, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8284, "edge_over": 0.0153, "edge_under": -0.056, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0153, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9314, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 26.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1939, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1836, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.152, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1685, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1821, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.205, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1989, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1727, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0264, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0153, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.005, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0005, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0266, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0203, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0005, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0059, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0292, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1821, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 206, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1716, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 26.61, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 26.61, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15211457366065956, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.205, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8478854263393405, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.019485426339340445, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2155, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2155, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.03276030507607661, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.152, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.152, "valinor_prob_under": 0.848, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0266, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.013274878736736162, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.205, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0264, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0005 }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_id": 596019, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 415, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2346, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2091, "model_over_probability": 0.2091, "model_under_probability": 0.7909, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1942, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0149, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0149, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.006, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 29.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 28.53, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 28.53, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2091, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.181, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1551, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.171, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1795, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2061, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1858, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1617, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0119, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0149, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0132, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0221, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0391, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0084, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0221, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0325, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1238, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1795, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 208, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 28.53, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 28.53, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15289935660263956, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2061, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8471006433973605, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0119, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2346, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2346, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0221, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1551, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1551, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8449, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0391, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01827846622360324, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2061, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Olson", "hitter_id": 621566, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 355, "under_odds": -445, "expected_home_runs": 0.2669, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2343, "model_over_probability": 0.2343, "model_under_probability": 0.7657, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8165, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2121, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7879, "edge_over": 0.0145, "edge_under": -0.0508, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0145, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.884, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.19, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 30.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2343, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1891, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1515, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1681, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1902, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2187, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1974, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1714, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0011, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0145, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0307, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0407, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0683, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0224, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0407, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0484, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1761, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1902, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 31, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 210, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2121, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 30.51, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 30.51, "palantir_prob_over": 0.16178666803693664, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2187, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8382133319630634, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.05031333196306337, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2669, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2669, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.07326030507607662, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1515, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1515, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8485, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0683, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.022946973113013247, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2187, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0011, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0407 }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 345, "under_odds": -430, "expected_home_runs": 0.1921, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1748, "model_over_probability": 0.1748, "model_under_probability": 0.8252, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2247, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8113, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2169, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7831, "edge_over": -0.0499, "edge_under": 0.0139, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0139, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8041, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.73, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.155, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.019, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.15, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1748, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1778, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1457, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1634, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1783, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1668, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1751, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0579, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0499, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0469, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0456, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.079, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.023, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0456, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0496, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1729, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1783, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 212, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2169, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.8, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.8, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12402109277738732, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1668, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8759789072226127, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.09287890722261269, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1921, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1921, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.07806030507607661, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1457, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1457, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8543000000000001, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.079, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.021678907222612676, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1668, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0579, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0456 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 395, "under_odds": -520, "expected_home_runs": 0.243, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2157, "model_over_probability": 0.2157, "model_under_probability": 0.7843, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.202, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8387, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1941, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8059, "edge_over": 0.0137, "edge_under": -0.0544, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0137, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.088, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 29.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.86, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 27.86, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2157, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1879, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1565, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1721, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1865, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2082, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1742, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0062, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0137, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0141, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0229, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0455, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0013, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0229, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0278, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0783, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1865, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 214, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1941, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 27.86, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 27.86, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15439364135066022, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2082, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8456063586493398, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.039706358649339774, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.243, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.243, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0552603050760766, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1565, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1565, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8435, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0455, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.017660305076076604, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2082, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0062, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0229 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "hitter_id": 621493, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -585, "expected_home_runs": 0.2155, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1939, "model_over_probability": 0.1939, "model_under_probability": 0.8061, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1742, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8258, "edge_over": 0.0137, "edge_under": -0.0479, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0137, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9314, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 26.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1939, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1836, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.152, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1685, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1821, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.205, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1989, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1727, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0248, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0137, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0034, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0011, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0282, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0187, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0075, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0292, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1821, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 215, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1742, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 26.61, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 26.61, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15211457366065956, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.205, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8478854263393405, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.022085426339340436, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2155, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2155, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0353603050760766, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.152, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.152, "valinor_prob_under": 0.848, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0282, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.013274878736736162, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.205, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0248, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0011 }, { "hitter_name": "Taylor Ward", "hitter_id": 621493, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2155, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1939, "model_over_probability": 0.1939, "model_under_probability": 0.8061, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0137, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0137, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9314, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 26.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1939, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1836, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.152, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1685, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1821, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.205, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1989, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1727, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0248, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0137, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0034, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0011, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0282, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0187, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0075, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0292, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1821, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 216, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 26.61, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 26.61, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15211457366065956, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.205, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8478854263393405, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0248, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2155, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2155, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0011, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.152, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.152, "valinor_prob_under": 0.848, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0282, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.013274878736736162, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.205, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Francisco Lindor", "hitter_id": 596019, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": -520, "expected_home_runs": 0.2346, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2091, "model_over_probability": 0.2091, "model_under_probability": 0.7909, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8387, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1895, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8105, "edge_over": 0.013, "edge_under": -0.0478, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.013, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.006, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 29.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 28.53, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 28.53, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2091, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.181, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1551, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.171, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1795, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2061, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1858, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1617, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.01, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.013, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0151, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.024, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.041, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0103, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.024, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0344, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1238, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1795, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 218, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1895, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 28.53, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 28.53, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15289935660263956, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2061, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8471006433973605, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03660064339736044, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2346, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2346, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.052678466223603254, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1551, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1551, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8449, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.041, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01827846622360324, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2061, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.01, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.024 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_id": 547180, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 415, "under_odds": -550, "expected_home_runs": 0.2322, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2072, "model_over_probability": 0.2072, "model_under_probability": 0.7928, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1942, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8462, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1867, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8133, "edge_over": 0.013, "edge_under": -0.0534, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.013, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.983, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.58, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.944, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.15, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2072, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1805, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1428, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.161, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1791, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2083, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.196, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1702, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0141, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.013, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0137, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0221, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0514, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0018, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0221, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.024, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0604, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1791, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 217, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1867, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 25.15, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 25.15, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15446466849728915, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2083, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8455353315027109, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03223533150271085, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2322, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2322, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.04987846622360326, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1428, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1428, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8572, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0514, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.017643134720892406, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2083, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0141, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0221 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "hitter_id": 668227, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 595, "under_odds": -865, "expected_home_runs": 0.1693, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1557, "model_over_probability": 0.1557, "model_under_probability": 0.8443, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1439, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8964, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1383, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8617, "edge_over": 0.0118, "edge_under": -0.0521, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0118, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9354, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.11, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.64, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.64, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1557, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1462, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1272, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1481, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1449, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1663, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1629, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1439, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0224, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0118, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0023, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0017, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0167, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.019, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0017, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0505, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1449, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 220, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1383, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 23.64, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 23.64, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12364314631353152, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1663, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8763568536864685, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.01465685368646849, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1693, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1693, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.01098364273285779, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1272, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1272, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8728, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0167, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0036732109536107005, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1663, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0224, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0017 }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.243, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2157, "model_over_probability": 0.2157, "model_under_probability": 0.7843, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0116, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0116, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.088, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 29.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.86, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 27.86, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2157, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1879, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1565, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1721, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1865, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2082, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1742, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0041, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0116, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0162, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.025, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0476, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0034, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.025, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0299, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0783, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1865, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 222, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 27.86, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 27.86, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15439364135066022, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2082, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8456063586493398, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0041, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.243, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.243, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.025, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1565, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1565, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8435, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0476, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.017660305076076604, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2082, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -660, "expected_home_runs": 0.2012, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1823, "model_over_probability": 0.1823, "model_under_probability": 0.8177, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8684, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1644, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8356, "edge_over": 0.0114, "edge_under": -0.0507, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0114, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8671, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.04, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.44, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.84, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1823, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1423, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1098, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1333, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1433, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1473, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1352, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1245, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0236, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0114, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0286, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0373, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0611, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0357, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0373, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0464, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.278, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1433, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 223, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1644, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.84, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.84, "palantir_prob_over": 0.10910702171401816, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1473, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8908929782859818, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.05529297828598183, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2012, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2012, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12427711511453651, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8757228848854635, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.04012288488546348, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1098, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1098, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8902, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0611, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01517009340051835, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1473, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0236, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0373 }, { "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "hitter_id": 667670, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -480, "expected_home_runs": 0.2537, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2241, "model_over_probability": 0.2241, "model_under_probability": 0.7759, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8276, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2045, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7955, "edge_over": 0.0113, "edge_under": -0.0517, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0113, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9251, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.36, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.176, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 29.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2241, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1815, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1302, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1506, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1825, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2157, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1874, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1629, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0029, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0113, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0313, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0407, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0826, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0254, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0407, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0499, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1823, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1825, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 224, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2045, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 29.69, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 29.69, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15968780708909772, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2157, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8403121929109023, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.04481219291090227, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2537, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2537, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.06767846622360324, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1302, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1302, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8698, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0826, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.029487807089097706, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2157, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0029, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0407 }, { "hitter_name": "Trevor Larnach", "hitter_id": 663616, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 705, "under_odds": -1020, "expected_home_runs": 0.1455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1354, "model_over_probability": 0.1354, "model_under_probability": 0.8646, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1242, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9107, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.12, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.88, "edge_over": 0.0112, "edge_under": -0.0461, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0112, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8658, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.97, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1354, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1401, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0902, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.116, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1408, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1351, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1469, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1324, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0109, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0112, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0159, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.018, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.034, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0227, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.018, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0082, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0921, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1408, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 64, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 225, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.12, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.97, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.97, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09961100372891656, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1351, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9003889962710835, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.02038899627108344, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1455, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1455, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0073163572671422206, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0902, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0902, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9097999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.034, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.037116357267142214, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1351, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0109, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.018 }, { "hitter_name": "Trevor Larnach", "hitter_id": 663616, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 705, "under_odds": -1085, "expected_home_runs": 0.1455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1354, "model_over_probability": 0.1354, "model_under_probability": 0.8646, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1242, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9156, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1194, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8806, "edge_over": 0.0112, "edge_under": -0.051, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0112, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8658, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.97, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1354, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1401, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0902, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.116, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1408, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1351, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1469, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1324, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0109, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0112, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0159, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.018, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.034, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0227, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.018, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0082, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0921, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1408, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 64, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 226, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1194, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.97, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.97, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09961100372891656, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1351, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9003889962710835, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.01978899627108345, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1455, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1455, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.00791635726714221, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0902, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0902, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9097999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.034, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.037116357267142214, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1351, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0109, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.018 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_id": 547180, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2322, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2072, "model_over_probability": 0.2072, "model_under_probability": 0.7928, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0111, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0111, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.983, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.58, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.944, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.15, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2072, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1805, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1428, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.161, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1791, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2083, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.196, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1702, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0122, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0111, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0156, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.024, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0533, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0001, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.024, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0259, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0604, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1791, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 227, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 25.15, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 25.15, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15446466849728915, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2083, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8455353315027109, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0122, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2322, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2322, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.024, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1428, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1428, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8572, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0533, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.017643134720892406, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2083, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "hitter_id": 668227, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 590, "under_odds": -810, "expected_home_runs": 0.1693, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1557, "model_over_probability": 0.1557, "model_under_probability": 0.8443, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1449, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8901, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.14, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.86, "edge_over": 0.0108, "edge_under": -0.0458, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0108, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9354, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.11, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.64, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.64, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1557, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1462, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1272, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1481, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1449, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1663, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1629, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1439, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0214, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0108, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0013, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0027, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0177, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.018, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.001, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0505, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1449, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 228, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.14, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 23.64, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 23.64, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12364314631353152, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1663, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8763568536864685, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.016356853686468498, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1693, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1693, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.012683642732857797, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1272, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1272, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8728, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0177, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0036732109536107005, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1663, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0214, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0027 }, { "hitter_name": "Randy Arozarena", "hitter_id": 668227, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 590, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1693, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1557, "model_over_probability": 0.1557, "model_under_probability": 0.8443, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1449, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0108, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0108, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9354, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.11, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.64, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.64, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1557, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1462, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1272, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1481, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1449, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1663, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1629, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1439, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0214, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0108, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0013, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0027, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0177, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.018, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.001, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0505, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1449, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 229, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 23.64, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 23.64, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12364314631353152, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1663, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8763568536864685, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0214, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1693, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1693, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0027, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1272, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1272, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8728, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0177, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0036732109536107005, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1663, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Trevor Larnach", "hitter_id": 663616, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1354, "model_over_probability": 0.1354, "model_under_probability": 0.8646, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0104, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0104, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8658, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.97, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.97, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1354, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1401, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0902, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.116, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1408, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1351, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1469, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1324, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0101, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0104, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0151, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0172, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0348, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0219, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0172, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0074, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0921, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1408, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 64, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 230, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 13.97, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 13.97, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09961100372891656, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1351, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9003889962710835, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0101, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1455, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1455, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0172, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0902, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0902, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9097999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0348, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.037116357267142214, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1351, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "hitter_id": 681351, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 530, "under_odds": -745, "expected_home_runs": 0.185, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1689, "model_over_probability": 0.1689, "model_under_probability": 0.8311, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8817, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1525, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8475, "edge_over": 0.0102, "edge_under": -0.0506, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0102, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8101, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1689, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1608, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1063, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1302, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1597, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1522, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1792, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1563, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0065, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0102, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0021, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0014, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0524, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0205, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0014, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0024, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0672, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1597, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 48, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 231, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1525, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.06, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.06, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11288700404289813, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1522, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8871129959571019, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03961299595710187, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.185, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.185, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.020192524513051563, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1063, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1063, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8936999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0524, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.026007475486948428, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1522, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0065, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0014 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_id": 666969, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.207, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.187, "model_over_probability": 0.187, "model_under_probability": 0.813, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8621, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1703, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8297, "edge_over": 0.01, "edge_under": -0.0491, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.01, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9296, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.944, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.5, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.17, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.187, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1502, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1359, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1553, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1511, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1608, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1631, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.144, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0162, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.01, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0268, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0348, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0411, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0139, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0348, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.033, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.14, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1511, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 232, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1703, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 21.17, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 21.17, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11946967721535685, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1608, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8805303227846432, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.05083032278464315, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.207, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.207, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.04298364273285779, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1359, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1359, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8641, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0411, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01643032278464314, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1608, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0162, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0348 }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2012, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1823, "model_over_probability": 0.1823, "model_under_probability": 0.8177, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0099, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0099, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8671, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.04, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.44, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.84, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1823, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1423, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1098, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1333, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1433, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1473, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1352, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1245, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0251, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0099, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0301, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0388, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0626, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0372, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0388, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0479, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.278, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1433, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 233, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.84, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.84, "palantir_prob_over": 0.10910702171401816, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1473, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8908929782859818, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0251, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2012, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2012, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12427711511453651, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8757228848854635, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0388, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1098, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1098, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8902, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0626, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01517009340051835, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1473, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 385, "under_odds": -485, "expected_home_runs": 0.243, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2157, "model_over_probability": 0.2157, "model_under_probability": 0.7843, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2062, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8291, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1992, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8008, "edge_over": 0.0095, "edge_under": -0.0448, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0095, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.088, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 29.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.86, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 27.86, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2157, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1879, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1565, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1721, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1865, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2082, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1742, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.002, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0095, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0183, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0271, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0497, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0055, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0271, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.032, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0783, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1865, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 235, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1992, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 27.86, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 27.86, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15439364135066022, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2082, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8456063586493398, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.04480635864933977, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.243, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.243, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.06036030507607659, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1565, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1565, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8435, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0497, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.017660305076076604, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2082, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.002, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0271 }, { "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_id": 547180, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": -515, "expected_home_runs": 0.2322, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2072, "model_over_probability": 0.2072, "model_under_probability": 0.7928, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8374, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1912, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8088, "edge_over": 0.0092, "edge_under": -0.0446, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0092, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.983, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.58, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.944, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.15, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2072, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1805, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1428, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.161, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1791, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2083, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.196, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1702, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0103, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0092, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0175, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0259, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0552, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.002, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0259, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0278, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0604, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1791, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 237, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1912, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 25.15, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 25.15, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15446466849728915, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2083, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8455353315027109, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.036735331502710855, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2322, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2322, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.05437846622360326, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1428, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1428, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8572, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0552, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.017643134720892406, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2083, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0103, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0259 }, { "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "hitter_id": 667670, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 365, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2537, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2241, "model_over_probability": 0.2241, "model_under_probability": 0.7759, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2151, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.009, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.009, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9251, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.36, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.176, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 29.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2241, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1815, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1302, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1506, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1825, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2157, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1874, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1629, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0006, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.009, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0336, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.043, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0849, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0277, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.043, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0522, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1823, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1825, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 238, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 29.69, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 29.69, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15968780708909772, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2157, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8403121929109023, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0006, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2537, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2537, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.043, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1302, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1302, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8698, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0849, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.029487807089097706, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2157, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "hitter_id": 681351, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": -695, "expected_home_runs": 0.185, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1689, "model_over_probability": 0.1689, "model_under_probability": 0.8311, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8742, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1547, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8453, "edge_over": 0.0089, "edge_under": -0.0431, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0089, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8101, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1689, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1608, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1063, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1302, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1597, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1522, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1792, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1563, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0078, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0089, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0008, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0027, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0537, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0192, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0037, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0672, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1597, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 48, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 239, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1547, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.06, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.06, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11288700404289813, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1522, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8871129959571019, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.041812995957101876, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.185, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.185, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.02239252451305157, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1063, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1063, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8936999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0537, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.026007475486948428, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1522, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0078, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0027 }, { "hitter_name": "Logan O'Hoppe", "hitter_id": 681351, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 525, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.185, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1689, "model_over_probability": 0.1689, "model_under_probability": 0.8311, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.16, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0089, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0089, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8101, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1689, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1608, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1063, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1302, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1597, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1522, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1792, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1563, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0078, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0089, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0008, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0027, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0537, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0192, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0027, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0037, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0672, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1597, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 48, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 240, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.06, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.06, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11288700404289813, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1522, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8871129959571019, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0078, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.185, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.185, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0027, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1063, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1063, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8936999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0537, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.026007475486948428, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1522, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -730, "expected_home_runs": 0.1861, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1698, "model_over_probability": 0.1698, "model_under_probability": 0.8302, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8795, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.845, "edge_over": 0.0085, "edge_under": -0.0493, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0085, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8461, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.155, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.019, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1698, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1763, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1202, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1422, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1773, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1767, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2124, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1846, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0154, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0085, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.015, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0178, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0411, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0511, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0178, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0233, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2829, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1773, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 244, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.155, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.76, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.76, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1314525739127615, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1767, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8685474260872386, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.023547426087238504, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1861, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1861, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.016160305076076603, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1202, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1202, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8798, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0411, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.018639694923923394, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1767, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0154, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0178 }, { "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "hitter_id": 677800, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -725, "expected_home_runs": 0.1861, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1698, "model_over_probability": 0.1698, "model_under_probability": 0.8302, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8788, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1551, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8449, "edge_over": 0.0085, "edge_under": -0.0486, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0085, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.024, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.983, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.46, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.36, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.36, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1698, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1714, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1252, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1464, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1717, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1938, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1948, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1691, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0325, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0085, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0101, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0108, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0361, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0335, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0108, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0078, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1717, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 245, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1551, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.36, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.36, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14404443841411685, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1938, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8559555615858832, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.011055561585883139, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1861, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1861, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.01827846622360324, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1252, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1252, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8748, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0361, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.018844438414116843, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1938, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0325, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0108 }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -620, "expected_home_runs": 0.2012, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1823, "model_over_probability": 0.1823, "model_under_probability": 0.8177, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8611, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.168, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.832, "edge_over": 0.0084, "edge_under": -0.0434, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0084, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8671, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.04, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.44, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.84, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1823, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1423, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1098, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1333, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1433, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1473, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1352, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1245, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0266, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0084, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0316, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0403, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0641, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0387, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0403, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0494, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.278, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1433, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 246, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.168, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.84, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.84, "palantir_prob_over": 0.10910702171401816, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1473, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8908929782859818, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.05889297828598185, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2012, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2012, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12427711511453651, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8757228848854635, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0437228848854635, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1098, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1098, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8902, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0641, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01517009340051835, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1473, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0266, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0403 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "hitter_id": 605137, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 550, "under_odds": -780, "expected_home_runs": 0.1764, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1617, "model_over_probability": 0.1617, "model_under_probability": 0.8383, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8864, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1479, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8521, "edge_over": 0.0079, "edge_under": -0.0481, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0079, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9525, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.45, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1617, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1469, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.12, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.142, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1461, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1502, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.149, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1338, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0036, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0079, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0069, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0116, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0338, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0048, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0116, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.02, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0855, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1461, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 247, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1479, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.45, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.45, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1113466447577947, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1502, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8886533552422053, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03655335524220531, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1764, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1764, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.020583642732857788, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.12, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.12, "valinor_prob_under": 0.88, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0338, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01596971250934752, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1502, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0036, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0116 }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": -685, "expected_home_runs": 0.1861, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1698, "model_over_probability": 0.1698, "model_under_probability": 0.8302, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1571, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8429, "edge_over": 0.0072, "edge_under": -0.0424, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0072, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8461, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.155, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.019, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1698, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1763, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1202, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1422, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1773, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1767, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2124, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1846, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0141, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0072, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0137, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0165, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0424, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0498, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0165, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.022, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2829, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1773, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 251, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1571, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.76, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.76, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1314525739127615, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1767, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8685474260872386, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.025647426087238495, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1861, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1861, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.018260305076076594, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1202, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1202, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8798, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0424, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.018639694923923394, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1767, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0141, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0165 }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1861, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1698, "model_over_probability": 0.1698, "model_under_probability": 0.8302, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0072, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0072, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8461, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.155, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.019, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1698, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1763, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1202, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1422, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1773, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1767, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2124, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1846, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0141, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0072, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0137, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0165, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0424, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0498, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0165, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.022, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2829, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1773, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 252, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.76, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.76, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1314525739127615, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1767, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8685474260872386, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0141, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1861, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1861, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0165, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1202, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1202, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8798, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0424, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.018639694923923394, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1767, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "hitter_id": 677800, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": -680, "expected_home_runs": 0.1861, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1698, "model_over_probability": 0.1698, "model_under_probability": 0.8302, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8718, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8428, "edge_over": 0.0072, "edge_under": -0.0416, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0072, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.024, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.983, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.46, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.36, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.36, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1698, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1714, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1252, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1464, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1717, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1938, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1948, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1691, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0312, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0072, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0088, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0095, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0374, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0322, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0095, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0065, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1717, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 253, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1572, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.36, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.36, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14404443841411685, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1938, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8559555615858832, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.013155561585883158, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1861, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1861, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.02037846622360326, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1252, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1252, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8748, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0374, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.018844438414116843, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1938, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0312, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0095 }, { "hitter_name": "Wilyer Abreu", "hitter_id": 677800, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 515, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1861, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1698, "model_over_probability": 0.1698, "model_under_probability": 0.8302, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0072, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0072, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.024, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.983, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 17.46, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.36, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.36, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1698, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1714, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1252, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1464, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1717, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1938, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1948, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1691, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0312, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0072, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0088, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0095, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0374, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0322, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0095, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0065, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.164, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1717, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 254, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 17.36, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 17.36, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14404443841411685, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1938, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8559555615858832, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0312, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1861, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1861, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0095, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1252, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1252, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8748, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0374, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.018844438414116843, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1938, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "hitter_id": 696100, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.2032, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1839, "model_over_probability": 0.1839, "model_under_probability": 0.8161, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8621, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1703, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8297, "edge_over": 0.0069, "edge_under": -0.046, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0069, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7704, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.05, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1839, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1806, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1165, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.139, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1801, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2104, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2288, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1999, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0334, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0069, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0036, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0021, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0605, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0518, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0021, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0229, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2788, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1801, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 255, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1703, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.76, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.76, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15595351399042034, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2104, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8440464860095797, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.014346486009579662, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2032, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2032, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.03146030507607661, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1165, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1165, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8835, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0605, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03945351399042034, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2104, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0334, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0021 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_id": 666969, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -585, "expected_home_runs": 0.207, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.187, "model_over_probability": 0.187, "model_under_probability": 0.813, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1742, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8258, "edge_over": 0.0068, "edge_under": -0.041, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0068, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9296, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.944, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.5, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.17, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.187, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1502, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1359, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1553, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1511, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1608, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1631, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.144, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0194, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0068, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.03, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.038, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0443, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0171, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.038, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0362, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.14, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1511, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 257, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1742, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 21.17, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 21.17, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11946967721535685, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1608, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8805303227846432, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.05473032278464314, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.207, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.207, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.04688364273285778, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1359, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1359, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8641, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0443, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01643032278464314, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1608, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0194, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.038 }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_id": 666969, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.207, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.187, "model_over_probability": 0.187, "model_under_probability": 0.813, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0068, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0068, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9296, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.19, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.944, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 25.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.5, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 21.17, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 21.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.187, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1502, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1359, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1553, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1511, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1608, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1631, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.144, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0194, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0068, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.03, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.038, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0443, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0171, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.038, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0362, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.14, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1511, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 258, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 21.17, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 21.17, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11946967721535685, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1608, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8805303227846432, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0194, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.207, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.207, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.038, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1359, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1359, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8641, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0443, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01643032278464314, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1608, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "hitter_id": 667670, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": -450, "expected_home_runs": 0.2537, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2241, "model_over_probability": 0.2241, "model_under_probability": 0.7759, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8182, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2099, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7901, "edge_over": 0.0067, "edge_under": -0.0423, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0067, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9251, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.36, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.176, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 29.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2241, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1815, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1302, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1506, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1825, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2157, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1874, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1629, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0017, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0067, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0359, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0453, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0872, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.03, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0453, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0545, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1823, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1825, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 259, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2099, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 29.69, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 29.69, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15968780708909772, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2157, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8403121929109023, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.05021219291090229, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2537, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2537, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.07307846622360326, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1302, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1302, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8698, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0872, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.029487807089097706, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2157, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0017, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0453 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "hitter_id": 605137, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 545, "under_odds": -730, "expected_home_runs": 0.1764, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1617, "model_over_probability": 0.1617, "model_under_probability": 0.8383, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8795, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1498, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8502, "edge_over": 0.0067, "edge_under": -0.0412, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0067, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9525, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.45, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1617, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1469, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.12, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.142, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1461, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1502, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.149, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1338, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0048, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0067, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0081, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0128, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.035, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0128, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0212, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0855, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1461, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 260, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1498, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.45, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.45, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1113466447577947, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1502, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8886533552422053, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03845335524220529, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1764, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1764, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.022483642732857773, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.12, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.12, "valinor_prob_under": 0.88, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.035, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01596971250934752, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1502, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0048, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0128 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Bell", "hitter_id": 605137, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 545, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1764, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1617, "model_over_probability": 0.1617, "model_under_probability": 0.8383, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0067, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0067, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9525, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.27, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.45, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1617, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1469, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.12, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.142, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1461, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1502, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.149, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1338, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0048, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0067, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0081, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0128, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.035, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.006, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0128, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0212, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0855, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1461, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 261, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.45, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.45, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1113466447577947, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1502, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8886533552422053, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0048, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1764, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1764, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0128, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.12, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.12, "valinor_prob_under": 0.88, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.035, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01596971250934752, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1502, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_id": 670242, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": -535, "expected_home_runs": 0.164, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1513, "model_over_probability": 0.1513, "model_under_probability": 0.8487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1903, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8097, "edge_over": -0.0467, "edge_under": 0.0062, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0062, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8404, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1513, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1449, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1385, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1575, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.144, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.149, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1617, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1429, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.049, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0467, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0531, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0558, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0595, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0363, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0558, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0551, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0753, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.144, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 263, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1903, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.72, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.72, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11042077057008809, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.149, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8895792294299119, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.07987922942991191, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.164, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.164, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.06298364273285778, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1385, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1385, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8614999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0595, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.028079229429911923, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.149, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.049, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0558 }, { "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_id": 670541, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 385, "under_odds": -505, "expected_home_runs": 0.2384, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2121, "model_over_probability": 0.2121, "model_under_probability": 0.7879, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2062, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8347, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1981, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8019, "edge_over": 0.0059, "edge_under": -0.0468, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0059, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9239, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.35, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.117, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.66, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.4, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2121, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1817, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1594, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1745, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1801, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1885, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1909, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1659, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0177, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0059, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0245, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0341, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0468, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0153, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0341, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0403, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1114, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1801, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 265, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1981, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.4, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.4, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14017593025668892, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1885, "palantir_prob_under": 0.859824069743311, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.057924069743311074, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2384, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2384, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.06127846622360325, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1594, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1594, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8406, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0468, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.02257846622360324, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1885, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0177, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0341 }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "hitter_id": 701762, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": -345, "expected_home_runs": 0.2473, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2191, "model_over_probability": 0.2191, "model_under_probability": 0.7809, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7753, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2534, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7466, "edge_over": -0.0441, "edge_under": 0.0056, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0056, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.946, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.53, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.176, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.61, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.38, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 30.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2191, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.156, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1287, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1493, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1575, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2152, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1448, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1309, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.048, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0441, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1072, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.121, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1345, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1184, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.121, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1323, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3674, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1575, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 267, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2534, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 30.38, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 30.38, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1593369468073057, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2152, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8406630531926943, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.09406305319269431, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2473, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2473, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1260836427328578, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1287, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1287, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8713, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1345, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.032020589540163485, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2152, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.048, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.121 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "hitter_id": 665862, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.2161, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1943, "model_over_probability": 0.1943, "model_under_probability": 0.8057, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1815, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8185, "edge_over": 0.0056, "edge_under": -0.045, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0056, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9533, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.18, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.155, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.019, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.3, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.6, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1943, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1828, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1591, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1742, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1822, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1987, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2037, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1768, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.01, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0056, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0059, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0096, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0296, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.015, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0096, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0119, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0542, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1822, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 266, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1815, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.6, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.6, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14759283167347184, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1987, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8524071683265282, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03390716832652815, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2161, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2161, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0426603050760766, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1591, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1591, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8409, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0296, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.020260305076076596, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1987, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.01, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0096 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "hitter_id": 700932, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -650, "expected_home_runs": 0.1962, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1782, "model_over_probability": 0.1782, "model_under_probability": 0.8218, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8667, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1671, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8329, "edge_over": 0.0043, "edge_under": -0.0449, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0043, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.088, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1782, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1606, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1412, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1597, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1596, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1876, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1706, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1497, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0137, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0043, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0133, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0189, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0327, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0033, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0189, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0242, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0465, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1596, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 271, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1671, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13951591316205667, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1876, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8604840868379433, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.027584086837943333, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1962, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1962, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13157369951952264, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8684263004804773, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.03552630048047736, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1412, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1412, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8588, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0327, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.009626300480477357, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1876, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0137, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0189 }, { "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_id": 670541, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2384, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2121, "model_over_probability": 0.2121, "model_under_probability": 0.7879, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0038, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0038, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9239, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.35, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.117, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.66, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.4, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2121, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1817, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1594, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1745, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1801, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1885, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1909, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1659, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0198, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0038, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0266, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0362, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0489, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0174, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0362, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0424, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1114, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1801, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 273, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.4, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.4, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14017593025668892, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1885, "palantir_prob_under": 0.859824069743311, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0198, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2384, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2384, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0362, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1594, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1594, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8406, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0489, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.02257846622360324, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1885, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": -460, "expected_home_runs": 0.1921, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1748, "model_over_probability": 0.1748, "model_under_probability": 0.8252, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8214, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2093, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7907, "edge_over": -0.0426, "edge_under": 0.0038, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0038, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8041, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.73, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.155, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.019, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.15, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1748, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1778, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1457, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1634, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1783, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1668, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1751, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0506, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0426, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0396, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0383, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0717, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0157, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0383, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0423, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1729, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1783, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 272, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2093, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.8, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.8, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12402109277738732, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1668, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8759789072226127, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0852789072226127, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1921, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1921, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.07046030507607662, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1457, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1457, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8543000000000001, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0717, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.021678907222612676, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1668, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0506, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0383 }, { "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_id": 665742, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 310, "under_odds": -375, "expected_home_runs": 0.2317, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2068, "model_over_probability": 0.2068, "model_under_probability": 0.7932, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2439, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7895, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.236, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.764, "edge_over": -0.0371, "edge_under": 0.0037, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0037, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.006, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 37.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 35.66, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 35.66, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2068, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2502, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1531, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1694, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2491, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2428, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2137, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0438, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0371, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0063, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0158, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0908, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0158, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0302, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2003, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2491, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 276, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.236, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 35.66, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 35.66, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14860162431693916, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2001, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8513983756830609, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.08739837568306083, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2317, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2317, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15783242848222917, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8421675715177708, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.07816757151777082, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1531, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1531, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8469, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0908, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.009230804165290013, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2001, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0438, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0158 }, { "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "hitter_id": 696100, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": -585, "expected_home_runs": 0.2032, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1839, "model_over_probability": 0.1839, "model_under_probability": 0.8161, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1742, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8258, "edge_over": 0.0037, "edge_under": -0.0379, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0037, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7704, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.05, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1839, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1806, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1165, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.139, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1801, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2104, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2288, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1999, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0302, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0037, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0004, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0011, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0637, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0486, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0197, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2788, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1801, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 274, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1742, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.76, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.76, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15595351399042034, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2104, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8440464860095797, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.01824648600957965, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2032, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2032, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0353603050760766, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1165, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1165, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8835, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0637, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03945351399042034, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2104, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0302, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0011 }, { "hitter_name": "Hunter Goodman", "hitter_id": 696100, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2032, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1839, "model_over_probability": 0.1839, "model_under_probability": 0.8161, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0037, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0037, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.7704, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.05, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.74, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1839, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1806, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1165, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.139, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1801, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2104, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2288, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1999, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0302, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0037, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0004, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0011, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0637, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0486, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0011, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0197, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2788, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1801, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 275, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.76, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.76, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15595351399042034, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2104, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8440464860095797, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0302, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2032, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2032, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0011, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1165, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1165, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8835, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0637, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03945351399042034, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2104, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "hitter_id": 647304, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 495, "under_odds": -680, "expected_home_runs": 0.1883, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1716, "model_over_probability": 0.1716, "model_under_probability": 0.8284, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1681, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8718, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1617, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8383, "edge_over": 0.0035, "edge_under": -0.0434, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0035, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9782, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.98, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1716, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1492, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.138, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.157, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1481, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1644, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1622, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1433, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0037, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0035, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0189, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0259, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0301, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0059, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0259, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0248, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.06, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1481, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 277, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1617, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 20.98, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 20.98, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12220471221943079, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1644, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8777952877805693, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.039495287780569224, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1883, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1883, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.034383642732857794, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.138, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.138, "valinor_prob_under": 0.862, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0301, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.015795287780569225, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1644, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0037, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0259 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "hitter_id": 700932, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1962, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1782, "model_over_probability": 0.1782, "model_under_probability": 0.8218, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0028, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0028, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.088, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1782, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1606, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1412, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1597, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1596, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1876, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1706, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1497, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0122, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0028, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0148, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0204, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0342, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0048, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0204, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0257, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0465, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1596, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 278, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13951591316205667, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1876, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8604840868379433, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0122, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1962, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1962, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13157369951952264, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8684263004804773, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0204, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1412, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1412, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8588, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0342, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.009626300480477357, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1876, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "hitter_id": 647304, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": -640, "expected_home_runs": 0.1883, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1716, "model_over_probability": 0.1716, "model_under_probability": 0.8284, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8649, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1639, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8361, "edge_over": 0.0021, "edge_under": -0.0365, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0021, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9782, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.98, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1716, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1492, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.138, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.157, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1481, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1644, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1622, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1433, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0051, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0021, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0203, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0273, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0315, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0073, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0273, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0262, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.06, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1481, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 280, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1639, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 20.98, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 20.98, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12220471221943079, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1644, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8777952877805693, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.041695287780569204, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1883, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1883, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.036583642732857774, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.138, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.138, "valinor_prob_under": 0.862, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0315, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.015795287780569225, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1644, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0051, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0273 }, { "hitter_name": "Josh Naylor", "hitter_id": 647304, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1883, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1716, "model_over_probability": 0.1716, "model_under_probability": 0.8284, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0021, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0021, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9782, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.37, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 20.68, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 20.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.98, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1716, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1492, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.138, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.157, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1481, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1644, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1622, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1433, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0051, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0021, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0203, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0273, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0315, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0073, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0273, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0262, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.06, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1481, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 281, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 20.98, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 20.98, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12220471221943079, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1644, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8777952877805693, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0051, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1883, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1883, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0273, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.138, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.138, "valinor_prob_under": 0.862, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0315, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.015795287780569225, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1644, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "hitter_id": 665862, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": -535, "expected_home_runs": 0.2161, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1943, "model_over_probability": 0.1943, "model_under_probability": 0.8057, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8142, "edge_over": 0.002, "edge_under": -0.0368, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.002, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9533, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.18, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.155, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.019, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.3, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.6, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1943, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1828, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1591, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1742, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1822, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1987, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2037, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1768, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0064, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.002, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0095, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0132, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0332, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0114, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0155, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0542, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1822, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 282, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1858, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.6, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.6, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14759283167347184, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1987, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8524071683265282, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03820716832652815, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2161, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2161, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0469603050760766, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1591, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1591, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8409, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0332, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.020260305076076596, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1987, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0064, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0132 }, { "hitter_name": "Jazz Chisholm Jr.", "hitter_id": 665862, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2161, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1943, "model_over_probability": 0.1943, "model_under_probability": 0.8057, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.002, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.002, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9533, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.18, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.155, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.019, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.3, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.6, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.6, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1943, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1828, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1591, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1742, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1822, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1987, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2037, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1768, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0064, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.002, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0095, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0132, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0332, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0114, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0155, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0542, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1822, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 283, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 24.6, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 24.6, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14759283167347184, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1987, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8524071683265282, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0064, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2161, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2161, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0132, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1591, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1591, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8409, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0332, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.020260305076076596, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1987, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Yordan Alvarez", "hitter_id": 670541, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": -470, "expected_home_runs": 0.2384, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2121, "model_over_probability": 0.2121, "model_under_probability": 0.7879, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8246, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2034, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7966, "edge_over": 0.0016, "edge_under": -0.0367, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0016, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9239, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.35, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.982, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.117, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.66, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.4, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.4, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2121, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1817, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1594, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1745, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1801, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1885, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1909, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1659, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.022, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0016, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0288, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0384, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0511, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0196, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0384, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0446, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1114, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1801, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 284, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2034, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.4, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.4, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14017593025668892, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1885, "palantir_prob_under": 0.859824069743311, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.06322406974331107, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2384, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2384, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.06657846622360325, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1594, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1594, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8406, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0511, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.02257846622360324, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1885, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.022, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0384 }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "hitter_id": 700932, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -610, "expected_home_runs": 0.1962, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1782, "model_over_probability": 0.1782, "model_under_probability": 0.8218, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8592, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1708, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8292, "edge_over": 0.0012, "edge_under": -0.0374, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0012, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.94, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.088, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1782, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1606, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1412, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1597, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1596, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1876, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1706, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1497, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0106, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0012, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0164, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.022, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0358, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0064, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.022, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0273, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0465, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1596, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 285, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1708, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13951591316205667, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1876, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8604840868379433, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03128408683794334, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1962, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1962, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13157369951952264, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8684263004804773, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.03922630048047737, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1412, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1412, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8588, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0358, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.009626300480477357, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1876, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0106, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.022 }, { "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "hitter_id": 665487, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 485, "under_odds": -670, "expected_home_runs": 0.1882, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1716, "model_over_probability": 0.1716, "model_under_probability": 0.8284, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1709, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8701, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1642, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8358, "edge_over": 0.0007, "edge_under": -0.0417, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0007, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.932, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.48, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.865, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.973, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1716, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1719, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1306, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1509, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.172, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1752, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1809, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1577, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0043, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0007, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.001, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0012, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0403, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.01, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0012, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0132, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0605, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.172, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 288, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1642, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.51, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.51, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13033305113338103, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1752, "palantir_prob_under": 0.869666948866619, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03386694886661898, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1882, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1882, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.027378466223603265, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1306, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1306, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8694, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0403, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.006488482643015714, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1752, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0043, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0012 }, { "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "hitter_id": 665487, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.1882, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1716, "model_over_probability": 0.1716, "model_under_probability": 0.8284, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8621, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8333, "edge_over": -0.0008, "edge_under": -0.0337, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0008, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.932, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.48, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.865, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.973, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1716, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1719, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1306, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1509, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.172, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1752, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1809, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1577, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0028, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0008, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0005, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0003, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0418, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0085, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0003, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0147, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0605, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.172, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 286, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1667, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.51, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.51, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13033305113338103, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1752, "palantir_prob_under": 0.869666948866619, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03636694886661895, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1882, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1882, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.02987846622360324, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1306, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1306, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8694, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0418, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.006488482643015714, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1752, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0028, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0003 }, { "hitter_name": "Fernando Tatis Jr.", "hitter_id": 665487, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1882, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1716, "model_over_probability": 0.1716, "model_under_probability": 0.8284, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0008, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0008, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.932, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.48, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.865, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.973, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.51, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.51, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1716, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1719, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1306, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1509, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.172, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1752, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1809, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1577, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0028, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0008, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0005, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0003, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0418, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0085, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0003, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0147, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0605, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.172, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 287, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.51, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.51, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13033305113338103, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1752, "palantir_prob_under": 0.869666948866619, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0028, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1882, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1882, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0003, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1306, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1306, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8694, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0418, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.006488482643015714, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1752, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": -505, "expected_home_runs": 0.2253, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2017, "model_over_probability": 0.2017, "model_under_probability": 0.7983, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8347, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1965, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8035, "edge_over": -0.0024, "edge_under": -0.0364, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0024, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8714, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.06, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.176, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.05, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 27.05, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2017, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1653, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1231, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1447, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1662, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2021, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1762, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.154, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.002, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0024, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0388, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0468, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.081, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0279, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0468, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0501, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1396, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1662, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 279, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1965, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 27.05, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 27.05, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15003884149180832, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2021, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8499611585081916, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.046461158508191686, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2253, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2253, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.06419252451305157, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1231, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1231, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8769, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.081, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.02693884149180832, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2021, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.002, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0468 }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "hitter_id": 624413, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 330, "under_odds": -410, "expected_home_runs": 0.2239, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2006, "model_over_probability": 0.2006, "model_under_probability": 0.7994, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2326, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8039, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2244, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7756, "edge_over": -0.032, "edge_under": -0.0045, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0045, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 36.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 34.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 34.34, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2006, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1527, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1592, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1743, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1539, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1923, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1635, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1443, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0403, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.032, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0799, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0904, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0734, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0691, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0904, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0883, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2025, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1539, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 270, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2244, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 34.34, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 34.34, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1429527638085969, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1923, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8570472361914031, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0814472361914031, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2239, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2239, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.09708364273285777, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1592, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1592, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8408, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0734, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03188364273285779, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1923, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0403, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0904 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "hitter_id": 641933, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -645, "expected_home_runs": 0.1853, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1691, "model_over_probability": 0.1691, "model_under_probability": 0.8309, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8658, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1673, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8327, "edge_over": -0.0048, "edge_under": -0.0349, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0048, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.769, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1691, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1609, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1409, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1594, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1597, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1582, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1779, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1553, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0157, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0048, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.013, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0166, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.033, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.004, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0166, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0186, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0569, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1597, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 269, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1673, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 14.87, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 14.87, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11748672773291712, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1582, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8825132722670829, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.04981327226708289, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1853, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1853, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.03499252451305157, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1409, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1409, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8591, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.033, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.023413272267082882, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1582, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0157, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0166 }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_id": 545361, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.205, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1854, "model_over_probability": 0.1854, "model_under_probability": 0.8146, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.183, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.817, "edge_over": -0.0051, "edge_under": -0.0361, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0051, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8591, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.1, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.47, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.47, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1854, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.181, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1081, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1318, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1804, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1989, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2297, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2007, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0084, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0051, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0095, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0114, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0824, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0392, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0114, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0102, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2728, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1804, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 268, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.183, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.47, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.47, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1477370826385349, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1989, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8522629173614651, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.035262917361465085, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.205, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.205, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0441603050760766, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1081, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1081, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8919, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0824, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03963708263853491, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1989, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0084, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0114 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_id": 677594, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 460, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.1894, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1725, "model_over_probability": 0.1725, "model_under_probability": 0.8275, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1786, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8621, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1716, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8284, "edge_over": -0.0061, "edge_under": -0.0346, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0061, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.02, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.32, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 26.32, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1725, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1495, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1378, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1569, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1482, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1745, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1605, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1421, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0041, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0061, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0291, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0364, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0408, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0181, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0364, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0365, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0762, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1482, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 264, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1716, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 26.32, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 26.32, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12980980621325525, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1745, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8701901937867448, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.041790193786744756, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1894, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1894, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.044283642732857786, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1378, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1378, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8622, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0408, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01048364273285779, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1745, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0041, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0364 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2253, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2017, "model_over_probability": 0.2017, "model_under_probability": 0.7983, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0066, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0066, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8714, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.06, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.176, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.05, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 27.05, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2017, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1653, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1231, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1447, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1662, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2021, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1762, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.154, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0062, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0066, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.043, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.051, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0852, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0321, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.051, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0543, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1396, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1662, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 262, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 27.05, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 27.05, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15003884149180832, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2021, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8499611585081916, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0062, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2253, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2253, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.051, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1231, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1231, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8769, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0852, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.02693884149180832, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2021, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_id": 545361, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.205, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1854, "model_over_probability": 0.1854, "model_under_probability": 0.8146, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0069, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0069, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8591, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.1, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.47, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.47, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1854, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.181, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1081, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1318, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1804, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1989, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2297, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2007, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0066, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0069, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0113, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0132, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0842, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0374, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0084, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2728, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1804, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 256, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.47, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.47, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1477370826385349, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1989, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8522629173614651, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0066, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.205, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.205, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0132, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1081, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1081, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8919, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0842, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03963708263853491, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1989, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_id": 677594, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 455, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1894, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1725, "model_over_probability": 0.1725, "model_under_probability": 0.8275, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1802, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0077, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0077, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.02, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.32, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 26.32, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1725, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1495, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1378, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1569, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1482, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1745, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1605, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1421, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0057, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0077, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0307, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.038, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0424, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0197, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.038, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0381, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0762, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1482, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 250, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 26.32, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 26.32, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12980980621325525, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1745, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8701901937867448, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0057, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1894, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1894, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.038, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1378, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1378, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8622, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0424, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01048364273285779, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1745, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "hitter_id": 641933, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -605, "expected_home_runs": 0.1853, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1691, "model_over_probability": 0.1691, "model_under_probability": 0.8309, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8582, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.829, "edge_over": -0.0079, "edge_under": -0.0273, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0079, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.769, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1691, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1609, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1409, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1594, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1597, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1582, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1779, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1553, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0188, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0079, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0161, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0197, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0361, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0009, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0197, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0217, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0569, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1597, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 248, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.171, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 14.87, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 14.87, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11748672773291712, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1582, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8825132722670829, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0535132722670829, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1853, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1853, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.03869252451305158, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1409, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1409, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8591, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0361, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.023413272267082882, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1582, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0188, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0197 }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler O'Neill", "hitter_id": 641933, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1853, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1691, "model_over_probability": 0.1691, "model_under_probability": 0.8309, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0079, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0079, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.769, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.67, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1691, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1609, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1409, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1594, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1597, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1582, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1779, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1553, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0188, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0079, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0161, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0197, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0361, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0009, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0197, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0217, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0569, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1597, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 249, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 14.87, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 14.87, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11748672773291712, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1582, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8825132722670829, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0188, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1853, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1853, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0197, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1409, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1409, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8591, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0361, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.023413272267082882, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1582, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_id": 665742, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": -405, "expected_home_runs": 0.2317, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2068, "model_over_probability": 0.2068, "model_under_probability": 0.7932, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.802, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7711, "edge_over": -0.0313, "edge_under": -0.0088, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0088, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.006, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 37.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 35.66, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 35.66, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2068, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2502, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1531, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1694, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2491, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2428, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2137, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.038, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0313, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0121, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0216, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.085, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0047, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0216, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0244, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2003, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2491, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 241, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2289, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 35.66, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 35.66, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14860162431693916, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2001, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8513983756830609, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.08029837568306084, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2317, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2317, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15783242848222917, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8421675715177708, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.07106757151777082, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1531, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1531, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8469, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.085, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.009230804165290013, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2001, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.038, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0216 }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": -470, "expected_home_runs": 0.2253, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2017, "model_over_probability": 0.2017, "model_under_probability": 0.7983, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8246, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2034, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7966, "edge_over": -0.0088, "edge_under": -0.0263, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0088, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8714, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.06, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.176, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.05, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 27.05, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2017, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1653, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1231, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1447, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1662, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2021, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1762, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.154, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0084, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0088, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0452, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0532, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0874, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0343, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0532, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0565, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1396, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1662, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 243, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2034, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 27.05, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 27.05, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15003884149180832, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2021, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8499611585081916, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.053361158508191675, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2253, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2253, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13230747548694843, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8676925245130516, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.07109252451305156, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1231, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1231, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8769, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0874, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.02693884149180832, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2021, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0084, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0532 }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_id": 545361, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 415, "under_odds": -530, "expected_home_runs": 0.205, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1854, "model_over_probability": 0.1854, "model_under_probability": 0.8146, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1942, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1875, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8125, "edge_over": -0.0088, "edge_under": -0.0267, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0088, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8591, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.1, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.47, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.47, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1854, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.181, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1081, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1318, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1804, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1989, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2297, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2007, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0047, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0088, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0132, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0151, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0861, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0355, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0151, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0065, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2728, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1804, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 242, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1875, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.47, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.47, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1477370826385349, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1989, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8522629173614651, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03976291736146509, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.205, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.205, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.048660305076076604, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1081, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1081, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8919, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0861, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03963708263853491, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1989, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0047, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0151 }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_id": 677594, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -585, "expected_home_runs": 0.1894, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1725, "model_over_probability": 0.1725, "model_under_probability": 0.8275, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1755, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8245, "edge_over": -0.0093, "edge_under": -0.0265, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0093, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.52, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.02, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 26.32, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 26.32, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1725, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1495, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1378, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1569, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1482, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1745, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1605, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1421, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0073, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0093, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0323, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0396, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.044, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0213, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0396, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0397, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0762, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1482, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 236, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1755, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 26.32, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 26.32, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12980980621325525, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1745, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8701901937867448, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.04569019378674474, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1894, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1894, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.04818364273285777, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1378, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1378, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8622, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.044, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01048364273285779, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1745, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0073, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0396 }, { "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": -515, "expected_home_runs": 0.1891, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1723, "model_over_probability": 0.1723, "model_under_probability": 0.8277, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8374, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1912, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8088, "edge_over": -0.0257, "edge_under": -0.0097, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0097, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8117, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.65, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1723, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1722, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1044, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1286, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1722, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1769, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1699, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0211, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0257, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0258, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0259, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0936, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0023, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0259, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0281, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1514, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1722, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 48, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 234, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1912, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.65, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.65, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13160166602662737, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1769, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8683983339733726, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.059598333973372636, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1891, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1891, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.05437846622360326, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1044, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1044, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8956, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0936, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03242153377639674, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1769, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0211, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0259 }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "hitter_id": 668904, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": -715, "expected_home_runs": 0.1445, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1345, "model_over_probability": 0.1345, "model_under_probability": 0.8655, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8773, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1522, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8478, "edge_over": -0.023, "edge_under": -0.0118, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0118, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8028, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.64, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.48, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1345, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1192, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1143, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1347, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1543, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1184, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1133, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1219, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.116, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0442, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.023, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0383, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0432, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0228, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0356, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0432, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0415, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1143, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1007, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1184, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 221, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1522, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.48, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 12.48, "palantir_prob_over": 0.08239576000170747, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1133, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9176042399982925, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.06980423999829254, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1445, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1445, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.11685093859041189, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1143, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8831490614095882, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.035349061409588114, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1347, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1347, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8653, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0228, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05230423999829252, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1133, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0442, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1143, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0432 }, { "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "hitter_id": 592518, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": -580, "expected_home_runs": 0.1914, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1742, "model_over_probability": 0.1742, "model_under_probability": 0.8258, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8203, "edge_over": -0.0127, "edge_under": -0.0271, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0127, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.865, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.973, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1742, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1499, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1407, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1593, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1486, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.166, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1623, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1434, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0209, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0127, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.037, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0447, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0462, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0246, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0447, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0435, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0748, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1486, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 219, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1797, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 25.61, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 25.61, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1234162602451641, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.166, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8765837397548359, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0562837397548359, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1914, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1914, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.05238364273285778, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1407, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1407, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8593, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0462, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.017283739754835895, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.166, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0209, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0447 }, { "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_id": 606466, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": -495, "expected_home_runs": 0.2162, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1944, "model_over_probability": 0.1944, "model_under_probability": 0.8056, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8319, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2002, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7998, "edge_over": -0.0139, "edge_under": -0.0263, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0139, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9459, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.99, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 28.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.2, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 27.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1944, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1775, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1329, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1529, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1766, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1938, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1699, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0145, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0139, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0308, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0362, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0754, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0126, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0362, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0384, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0071, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1766, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 213, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2002, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 27.9, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 27.9, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14404443841411685, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1938, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8559555615858832, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.05615556158588314, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2162, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2162, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.06337846622360324, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1329, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1329, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8671, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0754, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.011144438414116858, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1938, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0145, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0362 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_id": 553993, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 355, "under_odds": -445, "expected_home_runs": 0.2202, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1976, "model_over_probability": 0.1976, "model_under_probability": 0.8024, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8165, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2121, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7879, "edge_over": -0.0222, "edge_under": -0.0141, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0141, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9388, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.32, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 29.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1976, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1521, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1825, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1928, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1533, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1781, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1618, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.143, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0417, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0222, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0677, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0776, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0373, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.058, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0776, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0768, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1985, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1533, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 211, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2121, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 29.39, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 29.39, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13249533676829564, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1781, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8675046632317044, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.07960466323170437, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2202, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2202, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0847836427328578, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1825, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1825, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8175, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0373, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05518364273285778, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1781, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0417, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0776 }, { "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "hitter_id": 592518, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1914, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1742, "model_over_probability": 0.1742, "model_under_probability": 0.8258, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0145, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0145, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.865, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.973, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1742, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1499, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1407, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1593, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1486, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.166, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1623, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1434, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0227, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0145, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0388, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0465, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.048, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0264, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0465, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0453, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0748, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1486, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 209, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 25.61, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 25.61, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1234162602451641, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.166, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8765837397548359, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0227, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1914, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1914, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0465, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1407, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1407, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8593, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.048, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.017283739754835895, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.166, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_id": 553993, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -475, "expected_home_runs": 0.2202, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1976, "model_over_probability": 0.1976, "model_under_probability": 0.8024, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2048, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7952, "edge_over": -0.0152, "edge_under": -0.0237, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0152, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9388, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.32, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 29.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1976, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1521, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1825, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1928, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1533, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1781, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1618, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.143, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0347, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0152, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0607, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0706, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0303, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.051, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0706, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0698, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1985, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1533, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 207, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2048, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 29.39, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 29.39, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13249533676829564, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1781, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8675046632317044, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.07230466323170437, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2202, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2202, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0774836427328578, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1825, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1825, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8175, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0303, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05518364273285778, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1781, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0347, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0706 }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "hitter_id": 624413, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 345, "under_odds": -440, "expected_home_runs": 0.2239, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2006, "model_over_probability": 0.2006, "model_under_probability": 0.7994, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2247, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8148, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2162, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7838, "edge_over": -0.0241, "edge_under": -0.0154, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0154, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 36.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 34.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 34.34, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2006, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1527, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1592, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1743, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1539, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1923, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1635, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1443, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0324, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0241, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.072, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0825, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0655, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0612, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0825, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0804, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2025, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1539, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 205, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2162, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 34.34, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 34.34, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1429527638085969, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1923, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8570472361914031, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.07324723619140311, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2239, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2239, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.08888364273285779, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1592, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1592, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8408, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0655, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03188364273285779, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1923, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0324, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0825 }, { "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_id": 606466, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2162, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1944, "model_over_probability": 0.1944, "model_under_probability": 0.8056, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0161, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0161, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9459, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.99, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 28.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.2, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 27.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1944, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1775, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1329, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1529, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1766, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1938, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1699, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0167, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0161, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.033, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0384, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0776, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0148, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0384, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0406, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0071, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1766, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 200, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 27.9, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 27.9, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14404443841411685, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1938, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8559555615858832, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0167, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2162, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2162, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0384, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1329, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1329, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8671, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0776, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.011144438414116858, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1938, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Manny Machado", "hitter_id": 592518, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": -545, "expected_home_runs": 0.1914, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1742, "model_over_probability": 0.1742, "model_under_probability": 0.8258, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.845, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.184, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.816, "edge_over": -0.0163, "edge_under": -0.0192, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0163, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.865, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.973, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.98, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.61, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.61, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1742, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1499, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1407, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1593, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1486, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.166, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1623, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1434, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0245, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0163, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0406, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0483, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0498, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0282, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0483, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0471, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0748, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1486, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 199, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.184, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 25.61, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 25.61, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1234162602451641, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.166, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8765837397548359, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0605837397548359, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1914, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1914, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.05668364273285778, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1407, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1407, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8593, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0498, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.017283739754835895, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.166, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0245, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0483 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 820, "under_odds": -1255, "expected_home_runs": 0.0966, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0921, "model_over_probability": 0.0921, "model_under_probability": 0.9079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1087, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9262, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.105, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.895, "edge_over": -0.0166, "edge_under": -0.0183, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0166, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8142, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.55, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0921, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.011, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1079, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1316, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0184, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0989, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0517, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0792, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0098, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0166, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0977, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1087, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0008, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.057, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1087, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0295, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0184, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 198, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.105, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.55, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.55, "palantir_prob_over": 0.07091066117205777, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0989, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9290893388279422, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.034089338827942225, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0966, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0966, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0004343065256035067, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9995656934743965, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1045656934743965, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1079, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1079, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8921, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0008, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.1074656934743965, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0989, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0098, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1087 }, { "hitter_name": "Ketel Marte", "hitter_id": 606466, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": -465, "expected_home_runs": 0.2162, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1944, "model_over_probability": 0.1944, "model_under_probability": 0.8056, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.823, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2054, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7946, "edge_over": -0.0184, "edge_under": -0.0174, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0174, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9459, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.44, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.99, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.046, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 28.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.2, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.9, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 27.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1944, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1775, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1329, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1529, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1766, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1938, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1699, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.019, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0184, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0353, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0407, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0799, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0171, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0407, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0429, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0071, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1766, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 195, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2054, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 27.9, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 27.9, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14404443841411685, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1938, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8559555615858832, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.06135556158588315, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2162, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2162, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.06857846622360325, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1329, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1329, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8671, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0799, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.011144438414116858, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1938, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.019, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0407 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 810, "under_odds": -1330, "expected_home_runs": 0.0966, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0921, "model_over_probability": 0.0921, "model_under_probability": 0.9079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1099, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9301, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1057, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8943, "edge_over": -0.0178, "edge_under": -0.0222, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0178, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8142, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.55, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0921, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.011, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1079, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1316, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0184, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0989, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0517, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0792, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.011, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0178, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0989, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1099, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.002, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0582, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1099, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0307, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0184, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 192, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1057, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.55, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.55, "palantir_prob_over": 0.07091066117205777, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0989, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9290893388279422, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.03478933882794223, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0966, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0966, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0004343065256035067, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9995656934743965, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1052656934743965, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1079, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1079, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8921, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.002, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.1074656934743965, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0989, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.011, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1099 }, { "hitter_name": "Luke Keaschall", "hitter_id": 807712, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 810, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0966, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0921, "model_over_probability": 0.0921, "model_under_probability": 0.9079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1099, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0178, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0178, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8142, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.85, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.55, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0921, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.011, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1079, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1316, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0184, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0989, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0517, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0792, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.011, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0178, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0989, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1099, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.002, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0582, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1099, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0307, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.45, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0184, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 193, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 7.55, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 7.55, "palantir_prob_over": 0.07091066117205777, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.0989, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9290893388279422, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.011, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0966, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0966, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.0004343065256035067, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9995656934743965, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1099, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1079, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1079, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8921, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.002, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.1074656934743965, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0989, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "hitter_id": 668904, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 540, "under_odds": -760, "expected_home_runs": 0.1445, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1345, "model_over_probability": 0.1345, "model_under_probability": 0.8655, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1562, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8837, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1502, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8498, "edge_over": -0.0217, "edge_under": -0.0182, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0182, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8028, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.64, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.48, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1345, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1192, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1143, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1347, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1543, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1184, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1133, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1219, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.116, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0429, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0217, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.037, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0419, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0215, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0343, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0419, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0402, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1143, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1007, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1184, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 189, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1502, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.48, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 12.48, "palantir_prob_over": 0.08239576000170747, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1133, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9176042399982925, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.06780423999829253, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1445, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1445, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.11685093859041189, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1143, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8831490614095882, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.03334906140958811, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1347, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1347, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8653, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0215, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05230423999829252, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1133, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0429, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1143, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0419 }, { "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 415, "under_odds": -550, "expected_home_runs": 0.1891, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1723, "model_over_probability": 0.1723, "model_under_probability": 0.8277, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1942, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8462, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1867, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8133, "edge_over": -0.0219, "edge_under": -0.0185, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0185, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8117, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.65, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1723, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1722, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1044, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1286, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1722, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1769, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1699, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0173, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0219, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.022, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0221, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0898, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0015, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0221, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0243, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1514, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1722, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 48, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 183, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1867, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.65, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.65, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13160166602662737, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1769, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8683983339733726, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.05509833397337263, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1891, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1891, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.04987846622360326, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1044, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1044, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8956, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0898, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03242153377639674, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1769, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0173, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0221 }, { "hitter_name": "Eugenio Su\u00e1rez", "hitter_id": 553993, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2202, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1976, "model_over_probability": 0.1976, "model_under_probability": 0.8024, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0198, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0198, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9388, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.32, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.044, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.086, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 33.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.39, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 29.39, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1976, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1521, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1825, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1928, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1533, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1781, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1618, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.143, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0393, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0198, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0653, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0752, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0349, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0556, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0752, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0744, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1985, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1533, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 174, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 29.39, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 29.39, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13249533676829564, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1781, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8675046632317044, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0393, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2202, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2202, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0752, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1825, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1825, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8175, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0349, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05518364273285778, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1781, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "hitter_id": 668904, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1445, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1345, "model_over_probability": 0.1345, "model_under_probability": 0.8655, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.023, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.023, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8028, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.64, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.48, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.48, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1345, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1192, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1143, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1347, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1543, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1184, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1133, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1219, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.116, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0442, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.023, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0383, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0432, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0228, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0356, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0432, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0415, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1143, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1007, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1184, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 56, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 165, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.48, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 12.48, "palantir_prob_over": 0.08239576000170747, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1133, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9176042399982925, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0442, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1445, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1445, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.11685093859041189, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1143, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8831490614095882, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0432, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1347, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1347, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8653, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0228, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05230423999829252, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1133, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1143, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1891, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1723, "model_over_probability": 0.1723, "model_under_probability": 0.8277, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0238, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0238, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8117, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.074, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.65, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1723, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1722, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1044, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1286, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1722, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1769, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1957, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1699, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0192, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0238, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0239, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.024, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0917, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0004, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.024, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0262, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1514, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1722, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 48, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 161, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.65, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.65, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13160166602662737, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1769, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8683983339733726, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0192, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1891, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1891, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.024, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1044, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1044, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8956, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0917, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03242153377639674, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1769, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Pete Alonso", "hitter_id": 624413, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 335, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2239, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2006, "model_over_probability": 0.2006, "model_under_probability": 0.7994, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2299, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0293, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0293, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 36.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.71, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 34.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 34.34, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2006, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1527, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1592, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1743, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1539, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1923, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1635, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1443, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0376, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0293, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0772, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0877, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0707, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0664, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0877, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0856, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2025, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1539, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 151, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 34.34, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 34.34, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1429527638085969, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1923, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8570472361914031, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0376, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2239, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2239, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0877, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1592, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1592, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8408, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0707, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03188364273285779, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1923, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Juan Soto", "hitter_id": 665742, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 315, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2317, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2068, "model_over_probability": 0.2068, "model_under_probability": 0.7932, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.241, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0342, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0342, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.006, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.044, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 37.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.41, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 35.66, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 35.66, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2068, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2502, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1531, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1694, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2491, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2001, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2428, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2137, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0409, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0342, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0092, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0187, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0879, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0018, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0187, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0273, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2003, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2491, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 137, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 35.66, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 35.66, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14860162431693916, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2001, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8513983756830609, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0409, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2317, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2317, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.15783242848222917, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8421675715177708, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0187, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1531, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1531, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8469, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0879, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.009230804165290013, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2001, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1921, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1748, "model_over_probability": 0.1748, "model_under_probability": 0.8252, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0474, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0474, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8041, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.73, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.155, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.019, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.15, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1748, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1778, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1457, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1634, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1783, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1668, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2017, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1751, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0554, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0474, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0444, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0431, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0765, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0205, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0431, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0471, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1729, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1783, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 38, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 83, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.8, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.8, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12402109277738732, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1668, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8759789072226127, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0554, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1921, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1921, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0431, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1457, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1457, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8543000000000001, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0765, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.021678907222612676, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1668, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Matt Wallner", "hitter_id": 670242, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.164, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1513, "model_over_probability": 0.1513, "model_under_probability": 0.8487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0487, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0487, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8404, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1513, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1449, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1385, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1575, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.144, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.149, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1617, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1429, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.051, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0487, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0551, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0578, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0615, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0383, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0578, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0571, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0753, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.144, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 73, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.72, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.72, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11042077057008809, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.149, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8895792294299119, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.051, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.164, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.164, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0578, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1385, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1385, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8614999999999999, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0615, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.028079229429911923, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.149, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Nick Kurtz", "hitter_id": 701762, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 270, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2473, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2191, "model_over_probability": 0.2191, "model_under_probability": 0.7809, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2703, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0512, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0512, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.946, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.53, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.02, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.176, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.61, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 30.38, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 30.38, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2191, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.156, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1287, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1493, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1575, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2152, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1448, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1309, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0551, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0512, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1143, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1281, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1416, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1255, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1281, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1394, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3674, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1575, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 67, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 30.38, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 30.38, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1593369468073057, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2152, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8406630531926943, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0551, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2473, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2473, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12731635726714222, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8726836427328578, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1281, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1287, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1287, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8713, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1416, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.032020589540163485, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2152, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Byron Buxton", "hitter_id": 621439, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1592, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1472, "model_over_probability": 0.1472, "model_under_probability": 0.8528, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0633, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0633, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8585, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.01, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 27.7, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.73, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.73, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1472, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1527, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1394, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1582, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1534, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1456, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1679, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1476, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0649, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0633, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0578, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0555, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0711, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0426, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0555, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0629, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.155, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1542, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1534, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 45, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 23.73, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 23.73, "palantir_prob_over": 0.10779085852571624, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1456, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8922091414742838, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0649, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1592, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1592, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13157369951952264, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.155, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8684263004804773, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0555, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1394, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1394, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8606, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0711, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03160914147428376, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1456, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "hitter_id": 656941, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 270, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2214, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1986, "model_over_probability": 0.1986, "model_under_probability": 0.8014, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2703, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0717, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0717, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.944, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.108, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 44.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 41.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 41.67, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 41.67, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1986, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1785, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1418, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1602, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1774, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1892, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1876, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1631, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0811, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0717, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0918, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0982, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1285, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0827, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0982, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1072, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0616, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1774, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 32, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 41.67, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 41.67, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1406886582279745, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1892, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8593113417720255, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0811, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2214, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2214, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13682153377639675, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8631784662236033, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0982, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1418, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1418, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8582, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1285, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.004978466223603262, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1892, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Cal Raleigh", "hitter_id": 663728, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1966, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1785, "model_over_probability": 0.1785, "model_under_probability": 0.8215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0847, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0847, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9667, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.076, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.862, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 40.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.83, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 39.27, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 39.27, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1785, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1259, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1143, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1481, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1653, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1272, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1755, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1192, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1144, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0877, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0847, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1373, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1489, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1151, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.144, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1489, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1488, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1143, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3543, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1272, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 26, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, park/run dampening.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 6, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 39.27, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 39.27, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13055714326125814, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1755, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8694428567387419, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0877, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1966, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1966, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.11685093859041189, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1143, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8831490614095882, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1489, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1481, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1481, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8519, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1151, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.031249061409588122, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1755, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1143, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 235, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2351, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2095, "model_over_probability": 0.2095, "model_under_probability": 0.7905, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2985, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.089, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.089, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.42, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.155, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.019, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2095, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1864, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.2034, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.2092, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1852, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1973, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2033, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1765, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1012, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.089, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1121, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1194, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0951, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0952, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1194, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.122, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.033, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1852, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 1, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 43.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 43.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14658179321645534, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1973, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8534182067835446, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.1012, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2351, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2351, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1388396949239234, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8611603050760765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.1194, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.2034, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.2034, "valinor_prob_under": 0.7966, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0951, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0645603050760766, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1973, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260726T113313Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260802T113458Z" } ], "value_plays": [ { "hitter_name": "Bobby Witt Jr.", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2462, "edge_over": 0.066, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Play", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 49.5, "value_rank": 1, "value_row_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ezequiel Tovar", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 670, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2141, "edge_over": 0.0842, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 40.8, "value_rank": 2, "value_row_rank": 4, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Salvador Perez", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 440, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2325, "edge_over": 0.0473, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Play", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 39.6, "value_rank": 3, "value_row_rank": 7, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 615, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2179, "edge_over": 0.078, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.214, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 38.5, "value_rank": 4, "value_row_rank": 10, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 500, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2218, "edge_over": 0.0551, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Play", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "hr_multiplier": 1.216, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 34.8, "value_rank": 5, "value_row_rank": 13, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [] }