{ "date": "2026-08-09", "generated_at": "2026-08-10T00:01:21.528100", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-08-09", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 360, "matched_count": 360, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 360, "matched_rows": 360, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 238, "under_recommendation_count": 5, "strong_count": 79, "play_count": 99, "lean_count": 65, "no_play_count": 117, "average_edge_over": 0.039, "average_edge_under": -0.0767, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 360, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Ceddanne Rafaela", "hitter_id": 678882, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 685, "under_odds": -980, "expected_home_runs": 0.2595, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2286, "model_over_probability": 0.2286, "model_under_probability": 0.7714, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9074, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1231, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8769, "edge_over": 0.1012, "edge_under": -0.136, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1012, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.022, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.268, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.79, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.79, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2286, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2522, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.101, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1206, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2535, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2416, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.242, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2129, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1142, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1012, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1248, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1323, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0264, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1146, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1323, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0855, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0675, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2535, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 52.5, "value_rank": 7, "value_box_rank": 3, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1231, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.79, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 12.79, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15129017169770265, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2416, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8487098283022974, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.028190171697702646, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2595, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2595, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13666360935869634, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8633363906413036, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.01356360935869634, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.101, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.101, "valinor_prob_under": 0.899, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0264, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05029017169770264, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2416, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260807T113431Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1142, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260807T113553Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1323 }, { "hitter_name": "Ceddanne Rafaela", "hitter_id": 678882, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": -1040, "expected_home_runs": 0.2595, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2286, "model_over_probability": 0.2286, "model_under_probability": 0.7714, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9123, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1232, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8768, "edge_over": 0.1004, "edge_under": -0.1409, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1004, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.022, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.268, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.79, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.79, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2286, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2522, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.101, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1206, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2535, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2416, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.242, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2129, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1134, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1004, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.124, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1315, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0272, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1138, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1315, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0847, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0675, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2535, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 52.1, "value_rank": 8, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1232, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 12.79, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 12.79, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15129017169770265, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2416, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8487098283022974, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.028090171697702643, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2595, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2595, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13666360935869634, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8633363906413036, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.013463609358696338, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.101, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.101, "valinor_prob_under": 0.899, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0272, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.05029017169770264, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2416, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260807T113431Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1134, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260807T113553Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1315 }, { "hitter_name": "Ceddanne Rafaela", "hitter_id": 678882, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2595, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2286, "model_over_probability": 0.2286, "model_under_probability": 0.7714, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1004, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1004, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.022, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.268, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.79, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.79, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2286, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2522, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.101, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1206, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2535, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2416, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.242, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2129, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1134, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1004, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.124, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1315, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0272, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1138, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1315, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0847, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.055, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.231, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.96, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2433, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2558, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1278, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1473, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2564, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2534, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2659, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, 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"fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.1126, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1278, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1278, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8722, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0193, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.026270332693831694, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2534, 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"projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 6.83, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.83, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2189, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.156, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1216, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1412, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1575, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1709, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.146, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1317, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0474, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0954, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0325, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0187, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0019, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0225, 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"valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1216, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1216, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8784, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0019, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.010596594118984962, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1709, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260807T113431Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0474, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260807T113553Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0187 }, { "hitter_name": "Adley Rutschman", "hitter_id": 668939, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 710, "under_odds": -1030, "expected_home_runs": 0.2466, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2185, "model_over_probability": 0.2185, "model_under_probability": 0.7815, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1235, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9115, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1193, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8807, "edge_over": 0.095, "edge_under": -0.13, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.095, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9337, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.977, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.249, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 15.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 11.17, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": 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null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.07227632835292395, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1951, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260807T113431Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260807T113553Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Nolan Schanuel", "hitter_id": 694384, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 855, 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.059, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.056, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.72, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.98, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1618, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1469, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1229, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1425, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1461, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1615, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1576, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, 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"fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260807T113553Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1082 }, { "hitter_name": "Victor Caratini", "hitter_id": 605170, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 675, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2041, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1846, "model_over_probability": 0.1846, "model_under_probability": 0.8154, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.129, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0556, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0556, "play_tier": "Play", 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"opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.273, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2389, "model_over_probability": 0.2389, "model_under_probability": 0.7611, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.052, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.052, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", 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"valinor_gap_pct": -0.0368, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.021287928823231717, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2709, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260807T113431Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260807T113553Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Dominic Smith", "hitter_id": 642086, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, 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"confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.864, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.162, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 5.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.5, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 4.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1496, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1667, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0773, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.0963, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1676, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1436, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.19, 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"fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260807T113553Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "hitter_id": 665161, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 765, "under_odds": -1145, "expected_home_runs": 0.162, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1496, "model_over_probability": 0.1496, "model_under_probability": 0.8504, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1156, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9197, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1117, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8883, "edge_over": 0.034, "edge_under": -0.0693, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.034, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, 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"opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2172, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1952, "model_over_probability": 0.1952, "model_under_probability": 0.8048, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0285, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0285, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, 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"hitter_name": "Drake Baldwin", "hitter_id": 686948, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": -550, "expected_home_runs": 0.2413, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2144, "model_over_probability": 0.2144, "model_under_probability": 0.7856, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8462, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1823, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8177, "edge_over": 0.0257, "edge_under": -0.0606, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0257, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": 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"suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 255, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 21.68, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 21.68, "palantir_prob_over": 0.14408754478226798, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2135, "palantir_prob_under": 0.855912455217732, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0381, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2216, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2216, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1341248110500904, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8658751889499097, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0037, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1603, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1603, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8397, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0151, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.02617518894990961, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2135, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260807T113431Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260807T113553Z" }, { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "hitter_id": 681624, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": -860, "expected_home_runs": 0.1767, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.162, "model_over_probability": 0.162, "model_under_probability": 0.838, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8958, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1342, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8658, "edge_over": 0.0231, "edge_under": -0.0578, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0231, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9015, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.72, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.018, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.99, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.162, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1404, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1018, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1214, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1393, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1696, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.127, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1192, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0307, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0231, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0015, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0053, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0371, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0119, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0053, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0197, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, 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"palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1767, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1767, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13164416099052587, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8683558390094741, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.002555839009474148, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1018, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1018, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8982, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0371, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.029844160990525864, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1696, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260807T113431Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0307, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260807T113553Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0053 }, { "hitter_name": "Andy Pages", "hitter_id": 681624, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 620, "under_odds": -915, "expected_home_runs": 0.1767, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.162, "model_over_probability": 0.162, "model_under_probability": 0.838, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1389, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9015, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8665, "edge_over": 0.0231, "edge_under": -0.0635, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0231, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9015, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.72, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.018, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.99, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.99, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.162, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1404, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, 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