{ "date": "2026-08-26", "generated_at": "2026-08-26T23:46:38.566637", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-08-26", "probability_calibration_export": { "schema": "mithrandir.hr_probability_calibrator", "schema_version": 1, "calibration_version": "hr_prob_1_plus_logistic_v1_20260810", "status": "shadow_export_only", "applied": true, "source_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "active_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "source_field": "prob_1_plus_hr", "output_field": "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr", "ranking_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "recommendation_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "website_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "policy": { "may_replace_raw": false, "may_drive_rankings": false, "may_drive_recommendations": false, "may_drive_website": false, "requires_contract_validation_before_consumption": true }, "fit_contract": { "prediction_epoch": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "point_in_time_cutoff_local": "11:00:00", "train": { "start": "2026-04-04", "end": "2026-05-14", "days": 17, "rows": 3114 }, "validation": { "start": "2026-05-19", "end": "2026-05-26", "days": 5, "rows": 852 }, "untouched_holdout": { "start": "2026-05-31", "end": "2026-06-18", "days": 7, "rows": 972, "raw_brier": 0.0839676311728395, "calibrated_brier": 0.08051768184195375, "relative_brier_improvement": 0.04108665783109144, "raw_ece": 0.05874423868312757, "calibrated_ece": 0.015167291866040421, "top_1_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_3_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_5_set_overlap": 1.0 } }, "row_count": 171 }, "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 291, "matched_count": 291, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 291, "matched_rows": 291, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 129, "under_recommendation_count": 6, "strong_count": 12, "play_count": 44, "lean_count": 79, "no_play_count": 156, "average_edge_over": 0.017, "average_edge_under": -0.0547, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 291, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 590, "under_odds": -850, "expected_home_runs": 0.2585, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2278, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.138165, "model_over_probability": 0.2278, "model_under_probability": 0.7722, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1449, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8947, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1394, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8606, "edge_over": 0.0829, "edge_under": -0.1225, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0829, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9886, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.7, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.177, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.038, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.96, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2278, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.252, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1375, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1662, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2533, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2374, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2492, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2203, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0925, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0829, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1071, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1148, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0074, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1043, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1148, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0754, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1089, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2533, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 1, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 43.1, "value_rank": 1, "value_box_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1394, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.87, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.87, "palantir_prob_over": 0.152542593167217, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2374, "palantir_prob_under": 0.847457406832783, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.013142593167216998, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2585, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2585, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.14113958424495468, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8588604157550453, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0017395842449546839, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1375, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1375, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8625, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0074, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.015042593167216983, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2374, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260822T113618Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0925, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260821T113831Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1148 }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": -800, "expected_home_runs": 0.2585, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2278, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.138165, "model_over_probability": 0.2278, "model_under_probability": 0.7722, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8889, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1411, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8589, "edge_over": 0.0818, "edge_under": -0.1167, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0818, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9886, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.7, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.177, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.038, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.96, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2278, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.252, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1375, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1662, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2533, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2374, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2492, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2203, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0914, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0818, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.106, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1137, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0085, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1032, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1137, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0743, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1089, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2533, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 42.7, "value_rank": 2, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1411, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 18.87, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 18.87, "palantir_prob_over": 0.152542593167217, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2374, "palantir_prob_under": 0.847457406832783, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.011442593167216991, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2585, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2585, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.14113958424495468, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8588604157550453, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 3.958424495467683e-05, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1375, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1375, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8625, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0085, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.015042593167216983, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2374, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260822T113618Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0914, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260821T113831Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1137 }, { "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2585, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2278, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.138165, "model_over_probability": 0.2278, "model_under_probability": 0.7722, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0818, "edge_under": null, 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"valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1409, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1409, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8591, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0166, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.019833293907712102, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1893, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260822T113618Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0318, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.155, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260821T113831Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0025 }, { "hitter_name": "Edgar Quero", "hitter_id": 700337, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.1079, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1023, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.053775, "model_over_probability": 0.1023, "model_under_probability": 0.8977, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": 0.0223, "edge_under": -0.0573, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0223, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", 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"fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2414, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1273, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin 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0.005944198511370485, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1079, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1079, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.11704686692190629, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8829531330780938, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.03974686692190629, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0694, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0694, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9306, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0106, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.047646866921906283, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1039, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260822T113618Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0239, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260821T113831Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0536 }, { "hitter_name": "Edgar Quero", "hitter_id": 700337, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.1079, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1023, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.053775, "model_over_probability": 0.1023, "model_under_probability": 0.8977, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": 0.0223, "edge_under": -0.0623, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0223, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8733, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.76, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.995, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 109.8, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.016, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 8.69, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1023, 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"fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2414, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1273, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": 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0.9111, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.12, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.993, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.982, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.71, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.71, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1768, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1735, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, 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Ginn", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-08-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 405, "under_odds": -535, "expected_home_runs": 0.2132, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.192, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.112401, "model_over_probability": 0.192, "model_under_probability": 0.808, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1903, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8097, "edge_over": -0.006, "edge_under": -0.0345, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.006, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8404, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.999, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.026, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.192, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.183, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1402, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1689, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1817, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1892, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2049, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1778, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0088, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.006, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.015, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0189, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0578, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0069, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0189, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0202, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0753, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1817, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 259, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1903, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.72, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.72, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12997413515069742, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1892, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8700258648493026, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.06032586484930258, 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"valinor_prob_under": 0.8598, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0578, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.014627100767467371, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1892, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260822T113618Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0088, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260821T113831Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0189 }, { "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-08-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 375, "under_odds": -475, "expected_home_runs": 0.199, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1805, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.104406, "model_over_probability": 0.1805, "model_under_probability": 0.8195, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2105, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2031, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7969, "edge_over": -0.03, "edge_under": -0.0066, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0066, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8851, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.02, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.908, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.066, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.65, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1805, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1795, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1345, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1633, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1794, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1853, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2048, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1778, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0252, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.03, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.031, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0314, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.076, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0057, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0314, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0327, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, 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null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.199, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.199, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12557289923253262, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8744271007674673, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.07752710076746738, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1345, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1345, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8654999999999999, 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"team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-08-26T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1718, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1579, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.089097, "model_over_probability": 0.1579, "model_under_probability": 0.8421, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.177, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0191, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0191, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", 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