{ "date": "2026-09-05", "captured_at": "2026-09-06T03:49:28.419811+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-05T23:49:37.864520", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-09-05", "probability_calibration_export": { "schema": "mithrandir.hr_probability_calibrator", "schema_version": 1, "calibration_version": "hr_prob_1_plus_logistic_v1_20260810", "status": "shadow_export_only", "applied": true, "source_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "active_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "source_field": "prob_1_plus_hr", "output_field": "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr", "ranking_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "recommendation_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "website_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "policy": { "may_replace_raw": false, "may_drive_rankings": false, "may_drive_recommendations": false, "may_drive_website": false, "requires_contract_validation_before_consumption": true }, "fit_contract": { "prediction_epoch": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "point_in_time_cutoff_local": "11:00:00", "train": { "start": "2026-04-04", "end": "2026-05-14", "days": 17, "rows": 3114 }, "validation": { "start": "2026-05-19", "end": "2026-05-26", "days": 5, "rows": 852 }, "untouched_holdout": { "start": "2026-05-31", "end": "2026-06-18", "days": 7, "rows": 972, "raw_brier": 0.0839676311728395, "calibrated_brier": 0.08051768184195375, "relative_brier_improvement": 0.04108665783109144, "raw_ece": 0.05874423868312757, "calibrated_ece": 0.015167291866040421, "top_1_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_3_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_5_set_overlap": 1.0 } }, "row_count": 207 }, "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 339, "matched_count": 339, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 339, "matched_rows": 339, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 141, "under_recommendation_count": 14, "strong_count": 12, "play_count": 68, "lean_count": 75, "no_play_count": 184, "average_edge_over": 0.0119, "average_edge_under": -0.0496, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 339, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "hitter_id": 660271, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": -270, "expected_home_runs": 0.2124, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1914, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.111981, "model_over_probability": 0.1914, "model_under_probability": 0.8086, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7297, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2934, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7066, "edge_over": -0.1116, "edge_under": 0.0789, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0789, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.89, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.962, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 47.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 46.52, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.12, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1914, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1767, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1845, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1958, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.176, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1771, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1896, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1648, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1259, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1116, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1263, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1309, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1185, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1134, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1309, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1382, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Anchor", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0102, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.176, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 5, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2934, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 43.12, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 43.12, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12721179335645255, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1771, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8727882066435475, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.16618820664354744, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2124, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2124, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13166949483273313, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8683305051672668, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.16173050516726686, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1845, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1845, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8155, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1185, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.057288206643547446, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1771, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1259, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1309, "captured_at": "2026-09-06T03:49:28.419811+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Aaron Judge", "hitter_id": 592450, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 215, "under_odds": -255, "expected_home_runs": 0.2277, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2036, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.120605, "model_over_probability": 0.2036, "model_under_probability": 0.7964, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3175, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7183, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.3065, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.6935, "edge_over": -0.1139, "edge_under": 0.0781, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0781, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.61, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.007, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.976, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 46.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 44.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 43.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 43.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2036, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.185, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1959, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.2037, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.184, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1917, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1976, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1716, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.1258, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.1139, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.1325, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1384, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1216, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1199, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1384, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1459, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.033, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.184, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 6, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.3065, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 43.0, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 43.0, "palantir_prob_over": 0.13629575938561153, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1917, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8637042406143884, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.17020424061438846, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2277, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2277, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13423566934835332, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8657643306516467, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.17226433065164667, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1959, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1959, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8041, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1216, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.06166433065164667, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1917, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1258, 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"calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.122, "captured_at": "2026-09-06T03:49:28.419811+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "hitter_id": 607208, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 555, "under_odds": -790, "expected_home_runs": 0.2412, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2143, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.128294, "model_over_probability": 0.2143, "model_under_probability": 0.7857, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1527, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8876, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1468, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8532, "edge_over": 0.0616, "edge_under": -0.1019, 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"edge_under": -0.0966, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0614, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9053, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.87, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.134, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.027, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 15.04, 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"hitter_id": 607208, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 550, "under_odds": -745, "expected_home_runs": 0.2412, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2143, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.128294, "model_over_probability": 0.2143, "model_under_probability": 0.7857, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8817, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1485, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8515, "edge_over": 0.0605, "edge_under": -0.096, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0605, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", 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signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 210, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1821, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 21.17, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 21.17, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1277141683057901, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1779, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8722858316942099, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 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"valinor_hr_prob": 0.1244, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8756, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0643, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.007269494832733134, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1779, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0108, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0166, "captured_at": "2026-09-06T03:49:28.419811+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Brendan Donovan", "hitter_id": 680977, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 930, "under_odds": -1655, "expected_home_runs": 0.122, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1149, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.061478, "model_over_probability": 0.1149, "model_under_probability": 0.8851, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0971, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.943, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0934, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9066, "edge_over": 0.0178, "edge_under": -0.0579, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0178, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", 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"valinor_hr_prob": 0.0717, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9283, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0254, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04412523554247501, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0994, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0023, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1316, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0345, "captured_at": "2026-09-06T03:49:28.419811+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "hitter_id": 667670, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": -450, "expected_home_runs": 0.1792, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1641, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.093244, "model_over_probability": 0.1641, "model_under_probability": 0.8359, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8182, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2099, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7901, "edge_over": -0.0533, "edge_under": 0.0177, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0177, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9251, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.36, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.012, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.865, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 29.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, 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favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.025, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.063, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 19.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.54, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.44, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.44, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1805, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1514, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1389, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1634, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1498, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.167, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1591, 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"hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1289, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1289, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8711, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0489, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.06466993983977029, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0833, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0908, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-06T03:49:28.419811+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom", "hitter_id": 691016, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 585, "under_odds": -845, "expected_home_runs": 0.1532, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.142, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.078651, "model_over_probability": 0.142, "model_under_probability": 0.858, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8942, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1404, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8596, "edge_over": -0.004, "edge_under": -0.0362, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.004, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.864, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.86, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.012, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.865, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 18.43, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.43, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.142, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1649, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1186, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1483, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1661, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1826, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1826, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1591, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0366, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.004, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0189, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0261, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0274, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0366, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0261, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0131, "palantir_confidence_label": 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"valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1186, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1186, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8814, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0274, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.013069494832733133, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1826, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0366, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0261, "captured_at": "2026-09-06T03:49:28.419811+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Julio Rodr\u00edguez", "hitter_id": 677594, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 435, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2016, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1826, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.105856, "model_over_probability": 0.1826, "model_under_probability": 0.8174, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1869, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0043, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0043, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": 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"production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1543, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1543, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8457, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0362, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03413825580266569, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1733, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0172, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0483, "captured_at": "2026-09-06T03:49:28.419811+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Corey Seager", "hitter_id": 608369, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": -450, "expected_home_runs": 0.2379, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2117, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.126415, "model_over_probability": 0.2117, "model_under_probability": 0.7883, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8182, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2136, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7864, "edge_over": -0.0105, "edge_under": -0.0299, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0105, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9512, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.46, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.92, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.1, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.45, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.45, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2117, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1816, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1626, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1805, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.18, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1857, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.186, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1618, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0365, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0105, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0406, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0501, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0596, 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without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, tough contact allowance.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 258, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2136, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.45, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.45, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1325840968473188, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1857, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8674159031526811, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0810159031526812, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2379, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2379, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13166949483273313, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8683305051672668, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.08193050516726688, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1626, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1626, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8374, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0596, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.030930505167266864, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1857, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0365, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0501, "captured_at": "2026-09-06T03:49:28.419811+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Teoscar Hern\u00e1ndez", "hitter_id": 606192, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": -605, "expected_home_runs": 0.1874, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1709, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.097838, "model_over_probability": 0.1709, "model_under_probability": 0.8291, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8582, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1748, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8252, "edge_over": -0.0109, "edge_under": -0.0291, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0109, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9414, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.23, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.89, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.962, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 26.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 23.08, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.08, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1709, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.144, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1269, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1545, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1426, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1533, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1418, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1289, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0285, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0109, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0378, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0463, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0549, 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current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 257, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1748, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 23.08, 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"fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1269, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1269, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8731, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0549, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.01488684470040931, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1533, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0285, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1355, 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"recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": -570, "expected_home_runs": 0.1886, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1719, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.098518, "model_over_probability": 0.1719, "model_under_probability": 0.8281, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8507, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.183, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.817, "edge_over": -0.0186, "edge_under": -0.0226, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0186, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.858, 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.013, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.021, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 14.87, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1538, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1457, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1317, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1581, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1445, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1438, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1618, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, 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"fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0348, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1317, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1317, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8683, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0453, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.025894149597529392, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1438, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-06T03:49:28.419811+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Marcell Ozuna", "hitter_id": 542303, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "pitcher_name": "Yusei Kikuchi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 355, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2157, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.194, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.113806, "model_over_probability": 0.194, "model_under_probability": 0.806, "model_push_probability": 0.0, 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"environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.931, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 30.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.52, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 25.34, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.34, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.194, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1461, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.139, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1635, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1472, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1666, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1434, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1299, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0532, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0258, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0737, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0843, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0808, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0764, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0843, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0899, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1355, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2827, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1472, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary 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"fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1792, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.11665546217130586, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8833445378286942, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0815, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1346, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1346, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8654, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0805, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.019739510267106603, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1577, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-06T03:49:28.419811+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-05T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1612, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1489, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.083151, "model_over_probability": 0.1489, "model_under_probability": 0.8511, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0594, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0594, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8714, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.06, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.012, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.865, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.05, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 27.05, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1489, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1372, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1318, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1582, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1366, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1491, 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0.1752, "model_under_probability": 0.8248, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2353, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0601, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0601, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8858, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.03, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", 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