{ "date": "2026-09-06", "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-06T23:47:47.373956", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-09-06", "probability_calibration_export": { "schema": "mithrandir.hr_probability_calibrator", "schema_version": 1, "calibration_version": "hr_prob_1_plus_logistic_v1_20260810", "status": "shadow_export_only", "applied": true, "source_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "active_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "source_field": "prob_1_plus_hr", "output_field": "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr", "ranking_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "recommendation_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "website_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "policy": { "may_replace_raw": false, "may_drive_rankings": false, "may_drive_recommendations": false, "may_drive_website": false, "requires_contract_validation_before_consumption": true }, "fit_contract": { "prediction_epoch": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "point_in_time_cutoff_local": "11:00:00", "train": { "start": "2026-04-04", "end": "2026-05-14", "days": 17, "rows": 3114 }, "validation": { "start": "2026-05-19", "end": "2026-05-26", "days": 5, "rows": 852 }, "untouched_holdout": { "start": "2026-05-31", "end": "2026-06-18", "days": 7, "rows": 972, "raw_brier": 0.0839676311728395, "calibrated_brier": 0.08051768184195375, "relative_brier_improvement": 0.04108665783109144, "raw_ece": 0.05874423868312757, "calibrated_ece": 0.015167291866040421, "top_1_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_3_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_5_set_overlap": 1.0 } }, "row_count": 144 }, "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 228, "matched_count": 228, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 228, "matched_rows": 228, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 85, "under_recommendation_count": 8, "strong_count": 8, "play_count": 37, "lean_count": 48, "no_play_count": 135, "average_edge_over": 0.0084, "average_edge_under": -0.0461, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 228, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "hitter_id": 676475, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": -870, "expected_home_runs": 0.252, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2228, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.134487, "model_over_probability": 0.2228, "model_under_probability": 0.7772, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8969, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8667, "edge_over": 0.0849, "edge_under": -0.1197, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0849, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9074, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.151, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.144, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.03, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2228, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2508, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1293, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1563, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2523, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2231, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2539, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2252, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0852, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0849, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1129, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1218, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0086, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.116, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1218, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0873, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1625, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2523, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 42.8, "value_rank": 1, "value_box_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1333, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.03, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.03, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1552488036621062, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2231, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8447511963378938, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.021948803662106192, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.252, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.252, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1614545329688595, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8385454670311405, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.028154532968859503, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1293, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1293, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8707, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0086, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.032154532968859506, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2231, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0852, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1218, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "hitter_id": 676475, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": -925, "expected_home_runs": 0.252, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2228, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.134487, "model_over_probability": 0.2228, "model_under_probability": 0.7772, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9024, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1326, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8674, "edge_over": 0.0849, "edge_under": -0.1252, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0849, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9074, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.151, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.144, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 16.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.03, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2228, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2508, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1293, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1563, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2523, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2231, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2539, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2252, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0852, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0849, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1129, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1218, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0086, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.116, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1218, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0873, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.2597, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1625, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2523, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 4, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 42.8, "value_rank": 2, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1326, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 16.03, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 16.03, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1552488036621062, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2231, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8447511963378938, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0226488036621062, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.252, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.252, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1614545329688595, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.2597, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8385454670311405, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.02885453296885951, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1293, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1293, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8707, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0086, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.032154532968859506, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2231, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0852, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.2597, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1218, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Burleson", "hitter_id": 676475, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tanner Gordon", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 625, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.252, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2228, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.134487, "model_over_probability": 0.2228, "model_under_probability": 0.7772, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1379, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0849, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0849, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9074, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.151, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.144, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": 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22.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2025, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1848, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1492, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1709, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1838, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2161, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2045, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1775, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0522, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0386, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0209, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0152, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0147, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0406, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0152, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0136, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": 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HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 76, "edge_direction_rank": 61, "value_score": 21.8, "value_rank": 15, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 22.59, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 22.59, "palantir_prob_over": 0.15109053623004431, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2161, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8489094637699557, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0522, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2263, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2263, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13423566934835332, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8657643306516467, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.0152, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1492, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1492, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8508, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0147, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.016854866881690994, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2161, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jonathan India", "hitter_id": 663697, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 920, "under_odds": -1485, "expected_home_runs": 0.1466, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1364, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.075036, "model_over_probability": 0.1364, "model_under_probability": 0.8636, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9369, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0947, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9053, "edge_over": 0.0384, "edge_under": -0.0733, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0384, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9178, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.92, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.034, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.992, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.49, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.78, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1364, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.117, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1108, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.096, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1306, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1159, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1145, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1116, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1098, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0165, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0384, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.019, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0128, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.002, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0136, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0128, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0118, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1108, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1931, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1159, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 77, "edge_direction_rank": 62, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.0947, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 10.78, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 10.78, "palantir_prob_over": 0.08612800501385366, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1145, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9138719949861464, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.008571994986146345, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1466, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1466, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.10680822725463752, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1108, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8931917727453624, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.012108227254637519, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.096, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.096, "valinor_prob_under": 0.904, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.002, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.020680222240783863, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1145, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0165, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1108, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0128, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann", "hitter_id": 682177, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Jackson Jobe", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 800, "under_odds": -1305, "expected_home_runs": 0.161, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1487, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.08302, "model_over_probability": 0.1487, "model_under_probability": 0.8513, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1111, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9288, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1068, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8932, "edge_over": 0.0376, "edge_under": -0.0775, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0376, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.05, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.913, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 5.48, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.89, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.89, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1487, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1012, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0908, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0862, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1226, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1024, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1334, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0844, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0908, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0948, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0223, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0376, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0099, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0203, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0249, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0267, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0203, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0163, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, 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"trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 79, "edge_direction_rank": 63, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1068, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 8.89, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 8.89, "palantir_prob_over": 0.09891502904065935, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1334, "palantir_prob_under": 0.9010849709593407, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.007884970959340654, "palantir_confidence": "Low", 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"pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.96, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 10.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.16, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1745, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.107, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1393, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1753, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1716, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2022, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, 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"palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1716, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Colson Montgomery", "hitter_id": 695657, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 325, "under_odds": -400, "expected_home_runs": 0.1827, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.167, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.095197, "model_over_probability": 0.167, "model_under_probability": 0.833, 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"environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.927, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.34, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.55, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.167, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1214, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1114, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1178, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1477, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1225, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1403, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1147, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1117, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.095, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0683, 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"fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1178, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1178, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8822, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.1175, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.014301912044627135, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1403, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.095, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1114, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1239, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Giancarlo Stanton", "hitter_id": 519317, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 345, "under_odds": -430, "expected_home_runs": 0.1723, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1583, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.089363, "model_over_probability": 0.1583, "model_under_probability": 0.8417, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2247, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8113, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2169, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7831, "edge_over": -0.0664, "edge_under": 0.0304, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0304, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8041, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.73, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.952, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.007, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.15, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1583, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.168, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1366, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1617, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1693, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.151, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.183, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1594, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0737, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0664, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0567, 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"damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 48, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: thin opportunity, softened start expectation, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 91, "edge_direction_rank": 7, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2169, 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0.0233, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1363, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1363, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8637, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0361, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.015982451548865406, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2181, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", 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null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.1185, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.1121, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.1152, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.1185, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.1182, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1114, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.333, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1225, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", 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"palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0896, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1114, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.1185, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Edgar Quero", "hitter_id": 700337, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.1069, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1014, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.053231, "model_over_probability": 0.1014, "model_under_probability": 0.8986, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, 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"hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0536, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0256, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0443, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0536, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0375, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2414, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1271, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, 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"shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 24.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 28.15, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.8, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1583, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.168, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1366, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1617, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1693, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.151, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.183, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1594, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0664, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0591, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0494, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, 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"fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.005476527761182695, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1069, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1069, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8931, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0269, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.054601783227468746, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0669, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0131, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0471, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0329, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Mike Trout", "hitter_id": 545361, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 415, "under_odds": -530, "expected_home_runs": 0.1628, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1502, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.084004, "model_over_probability": 0.1502, "model_under_probability": 0.8498, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1942, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1875, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8125, "edge_over": -0.044, "edge_under": 0.0085, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0085, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8591, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.65, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.1, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.89, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.925, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 22.91, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.47, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.47, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1502, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1669, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1975, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.2048, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1677, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1615, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1871, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1628, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0327, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.044, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0273, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0221, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0033, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0071, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0221, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0314, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1721, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2728, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1677, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 180, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1875, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 19.47, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 19.47, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11730568404103614, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1615, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8826943159589639, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.07019431595896386, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1628, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1628, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13166949483273313, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8683305051672668, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.05583050516726687, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1975, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1975, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8025, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0033, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.08019431595896387, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1615, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0327, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0221, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": -505, "expected_home_runs": 0.1711, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1573, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.088698, "model_over_probability": 0.1573, "model_under_probability": 0.8427, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8347, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1965, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8035, "edge_over": -0.0468, "edge_under": 0.008, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.008, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8714, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.06, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 27.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 23.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.05, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 27.05, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1393, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.137, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.162, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1383, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1575, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1369, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1256, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0466, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0468, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0648, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0705, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0671, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0672, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0705, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0785, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1336, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1396, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1383, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 181, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1965, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 27.05, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 27.05, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11473144052057017, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1575, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8852685594794298, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.08176855947942983, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1711, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1711, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.11665546217130586, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8833445378286942, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.07984453782869415, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.137, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.137, "valinor_prob_under": 0.863, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0671, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.022268559479429836, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1575, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0466, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0705, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Adolis Garc\u00eda", "hitter_id": 666969, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 465, "under_odds": -625, "expected_home_runs": 0.2032, 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"model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1581, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0189, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0348, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Yo\u00e1n Moncada", "hitter_id": 660162, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 655, "under_odds": -975, "expected_home_runs": 0.15, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1393, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.076904, "model_over_probability": 0.1393, "model_under_probability": 0.8607, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1325, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.907, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1275, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8725, "edge_over": 0.0068, "edge_under": -0.0463, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0068, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.84, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.65, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; 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"fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 78, "suppression_reason_count": 6, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 185, 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null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.04252654664044227, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1517, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0192, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0097, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Brent Rooker", "hitter_id": 667670, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, 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4.36, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 31.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.35, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 29.69, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 29.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1752, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1501, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1407, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1647, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", 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false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8813, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.28, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.108, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.026, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 18.28, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.17, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.17, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1954, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1777, 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"BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.224, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2007, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.118541, "model_over_probability": 0.2007, "model_under_probability": 0.7993, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0046, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0046, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 2, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, 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null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.224, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.224, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13166949483273313, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1721, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8683305051672668, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.024, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1558, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1558, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8442000000000001, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0403, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.024130505167266864, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2018, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1721, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Willson Contreras", "hitter_id": 575929, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 535, "under_odds": -750, "expected_home_runs": 0.1768, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1621, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.091902, "model_over_probability": 0.1621, "model_under_probability": 0.8379, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8824, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8485, "edge_over": 0.0046, "edge_under": -0.0445, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0046, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8907, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.13, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.923, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.998, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 16.6, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 19.06, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 19.06, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1621, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1469, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, 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0.5, "over_odds": 1015, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.0928, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0886, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.04561, "model_over_probability": 0.0886, "model_under_probability": 0.9114, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0897, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0011, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0011, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9066, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.89, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 108.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.925, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.72, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 9.98, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.98, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0908, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0886, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0902, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0908, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1054, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1381, "hr_valinor_model_version": 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not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 210, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.2045, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 29.69, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 29.69, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12171319579814179, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1684, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8782868042018582, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.0827868042018582, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, 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"valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0721, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.02053825580266569, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1684, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0444, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0706, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jacob Wilson", "hitter_id": 805779, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1005, "under_odds": -1700, "expected_home_runs": 0.0904, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0864, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.044319, "model_over_probability": 0.0864, "model_under_probability": 0.9136, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.0905, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0874, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9126, "edge_over": -0.0041, "edge_under": -0.0308, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0041, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8522, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 106.6, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.889, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 8.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 3.45, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 7.94, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 7.94, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.0864, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0104, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0751, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1131, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0173, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0858, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0382, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0735, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0047, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0041, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0801, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0905, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0154, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0523, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0905, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.017, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, 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null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.0904, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.0904, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.00044145189439767033, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.0, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.9995585481056023, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.08695854810560233, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0751, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0751, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9249, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0154, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.07465854810560232, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.0858, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0047, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.0, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0905, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Chase Meidroth", "hitter_id": 805367, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.078, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.075, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.037731, "model_over_probability": 0.075, "model_under_probability": 0.925, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": -0.005, "edge_under": -0.03, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.005, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8728, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.24, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.147, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.927, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.34, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 6.2, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 6.2, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.075, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0538, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0471, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0883, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1243, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.0527, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0668, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.0682, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0471, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0867, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0132, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.005, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0262, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0329, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0083, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0118, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0329, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0067, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "STRONG_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Strong Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 0, 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null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0316, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.004906474921603926, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1766, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Jackson Jobe", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 395, "under_odds": -520, "expected_home_runs": 0.2143, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1929, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.113033, "model_over_probability": 0.1929, "model_under_probability": 0.8071, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.202, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8387, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1941, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8059, "edge_over": -0.0091, "edge_under": -0.0316, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0091, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.71, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.05, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.913, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 29.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 26.73, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 27.86, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 27.86, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1929, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1659, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1274, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1549, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1645, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1861, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1792, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1564, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0159, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0091, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0361, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0447, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0746, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0228, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0447, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0456, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1573, 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"hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 178, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1941, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 27.86, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 27.86, "palantir_prob_over": 0.1328324665136794, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1861, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8671675334863206, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.06126753348632061, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2143, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2143, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.12609352507839608, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1573, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8739064749216039, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.06800647492160392, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1274, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1274, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8726, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0746, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.006738941435283308, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1861, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0159, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0447, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jorge Soler", "hitter_id": 624585, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 475, "under_odds": -620, "expected_home_runs": 0.1604, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1482, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.082692, "model_over_probability": 0.1482, "model_under_probability": 0.8518, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8611, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.168, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.832, "edge_over": -0.0257, "edge_under": -0.0093, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0093, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8671, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.04, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.89, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.925, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.44, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 15.84, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.84, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1482, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1198, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1108, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1945, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.2028, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1183, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1193, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1094, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1085, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0546, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0257, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0541, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0631, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0206, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0645, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0631, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0654, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1108, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.278, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1183, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "unranked", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 46, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 177, "edge_direction_rank": null, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.168, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 15.84, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 15.84, "palantir_prob_over": 0.08940851859011095, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1193, "palantir_prob_under": 0.910591481409889, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": -0.07859148140988906, "palantir_confidence": "Low", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, 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0.184, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.184, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8160000000000001, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0116, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.06127068882100664, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.17, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0024, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1573, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0151, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Manzardo", "hitter_id": 700932, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Jackson Jobe", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1749, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1605, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.090831, "model_over_probability": 0.1605, "model_under_probability": 0.8395, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0149, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0149, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", 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0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1605, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1466, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1168, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1469, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1458, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1691, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1536, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1371, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0063, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": -0.0149, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": -0.0288, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0332, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0586, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": -0.0218, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0332, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": -0.0383, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", 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-0.0063, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1749, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1749, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1201617441973343, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8798382558026657, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.0332, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1168, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1168, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8832, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0586, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.005358018631231809, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1691, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Torkelson", "hitter_id": 679529, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1677, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1544, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.086774, "model_over_probability": 0.1544, "model_under_probability": 0.8456, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0151, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0151, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9244, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.08, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.972, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.913, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 23.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 24.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 24.96, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 24.96, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1544, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1458, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, 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"2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Shea Langeliers", "hitter_id": 669127, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 380, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1711, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1573, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.088698, "model_over_probability": 0.1573, "model_under_probability": 0.8427, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2083, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.051, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.051, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the 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"valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.137, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.137, "valinor_prob_under": 0.863, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0713, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.022268559479429836, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1575, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jo Adell", "hitter_id": 666176, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "pitcher_name": "Paul 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"likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8117, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.89, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.925, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 22.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 25.33, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.65, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.65, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1383, 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0.875, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.07, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.147, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.927, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 20.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 13.34, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 16.55, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 16.55, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.167, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1214, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1114, 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"valinor_gap_pct": -0.1148, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.014301912044627135, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1403, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1114, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-07T03:47:40.318025+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Kyle Schwarber", "hitter_id": 656941, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-06T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 270, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2176, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1956, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.114932, "model_over_probability": 0.1956, "model_under_probability": 0.8044, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2703, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0747, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0747, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.933, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.026, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 44.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 41.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 41.67, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 41.67, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1956, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1777, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1584, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1774, 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