{ "date": "2026-09-07", "captured_at": "2026-09-07T12:02:22.864824+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-07T08:02:27.358053", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-09-07", "probability_calibration_export": { "schema": "mithrandir.hr_probability_calibrator", "schema_version": 1, "calibration_version": "hr_prob_1_plus_logistic_v1_20260810", "status": "shadow_export_only", "applied": true, "source_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "active_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "source_field": "prob_1_plus_hr", "output_field": "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr", "ranking_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "recommendation_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "website_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "policy": { "may_replace_raw": false, "may_drive_rankings": false, "may_drive_recommendations": false, "may_drive_website": false, "requires_contract_validation_before_consumption": true }, "fit_contract": { "prediction_epoch": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "point_in_time_cutoff_local": "11:00:00", "train": { "start": "2026-04-04", "end": "2026-05-14", "days": 17, "rows": 3114 }, "validation": { "start": "2026-05-19", "end": "2026-05-26", "days": 5, "rows": 852 }, "untouched_holdout": { "start": "2026-05-31", "end": "2026-06-18", "days": 7, "rows": 972, "raw_brier": 0.0839676311728395, "calibrated_brier": 0.08051768184195375, "relative_brier_improvement": 0.04108665783109144, "raw_ece": 0.05874423868312757, "calibrated_ece": 0.015167291866040421, "top_1_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_3_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_5_set_overlap": 1.0 } }, "row_count": 117 }, "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 174, "matched_count": 174, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 174, "matched_rows": 174, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 60, "under_recommendation_count": 3, "strong_count": 0, "play_count": 48, "lean_count": 15, "no_play_count": 111, "average_edge_over": 0.0173, "average_edge_under": -0.0549, "value_play_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 174, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "hitter_id": 664761, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 805, "under_odds": -1225, "expected_home_runs": 0.1982, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1798, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.103924, "model_over_probability": 0.1798, "model_under_probability": 0.8202, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1105, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9245, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1068, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8932, "edge_over": 0.0693, "edge_under": -0.1043, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0693, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 5, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9223, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.35, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.07, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; same_side_matchup", "handedness_matchup": "same_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.077, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 14.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 12.24, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.57, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.57, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1798, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1512, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0857, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1222, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1497, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1511, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1591, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.141, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0406, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0693, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0407, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0317, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0248, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0486, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0317, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0305, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1422, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.1257, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1497, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1068, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.57, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.57, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11058296953209586, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1511, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8894170304679041, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0037829695320958506, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1982, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1982, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.1201617441973343, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1422, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8798382558026657, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.013361744197334297, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0857, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0857, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9143, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0248, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.034461744197334304, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1511, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0406, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0317, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T12:02:22.864824+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 780, "under_odds": -1170, "expected_home_runs": 0.2016, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1826, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.105856, "model_over_probability": 0.1826, "model_under_probability": 0.8174, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1136, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9213, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1098, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8902, "edge_over": 0.069, "edge_under": -0.1039, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.069, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8668, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.74, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.077, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 14.21, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.11, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1826, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1802, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0822, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1192, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1798, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1583, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1978, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1717, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0447, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.069, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0666, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0655, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0314, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0842, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0655, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0581, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.0931, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1798, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 3, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1098, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.11, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.11, "palantir_prob_over": 0.11524742393569139, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1583, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8847525760643086, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.005447423935691392, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.2016, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2016, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.13423566934835332, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1791, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8657643306516467, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.024435669348353325, "fangorn_confidence": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Steady Support / Caution", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0822, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0822, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9178, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0314, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.052035669348353325, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1583, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0447, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0655, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T12:02:22.864824+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Alec Bohm", "hitter_id": 664761, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 795, "under_odds": -1295, "expected_home_runs": 0.1982, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1798, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.103924, "model_over_probability": 0.1798, "model_under_probability": 0.8202, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1117, 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"recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0579, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.9886, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.7, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.147, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.968, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 18.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 19.96, 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"2026-09-07T12:02:22.864824+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Trea Turner", "hitter_id": 607208, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 575, "under_odds": -785, "expected_home_runs": 0.2305, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2059, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.122248, "model_over_probability": 0.2059, "model_under_probability": 0.7941, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1481, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.887, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1431, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8569, "edge_over": 0.0578, "edge_under": -0.0929, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0578, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, 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"pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.968, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 13.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.86, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 11.92, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.92, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1336, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1526, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1381, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1336, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0719, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1103, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1374, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1409, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1292, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1336, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1206, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0414, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0531, 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0.0961, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 11.92, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 11.92, "palantir_prob_over": 0.10389451065359763, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1409, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8961054893464023, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.007794510653597625, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1656, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1656, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.11665546217130586, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1336, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8833445378286942, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, 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"palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0414, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1336, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0341, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T12:02:22.864824+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Daylen Lile", "hitter_id": 695734, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 770, "under_odds": -1150, "expected_home_runs": 0.1837, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1678, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.095737, "model_over_probability": 0.1678, "model_under_probability": 0.8322, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1149, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.92, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.111, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.889, "edge_over": 0.0529, "edge_under": -0.0878, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0529, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8853, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.11, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.147, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 0.968, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.57, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.0, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.0, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1114, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1678, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1215, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1114, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.098, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1322, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1227, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1978, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1137, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1114, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.111, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0829, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0529, 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"palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0829, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1114, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0035, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T12:02:22.864824+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "hitter_id": 671277, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Nick Pivetta", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 670, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2015, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1825, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.105787, "model_over_probability": 0.1825, "model_under_probability": 0.8175, "model_push_probability": 0.0, 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"market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 265, "under_odds": -320, "expected_home_runs": 0.2323, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2073, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.12325, "model_over_probability": 0.2073, "model_under_probability": 0.7927, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.2645, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.7355, "edge_over": -0.0667, "edge_under": 0.0308, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0308, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.99, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.51, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.01, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.077, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 44.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 41.29, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 41.67, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 41.67, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2073, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1806, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1339, 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"fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": -0.0131, "captured_at": "2026-09-07T12:02:22.864824+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jung Hoo Lee", "hitter_id": 808982, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2120, "expected_home_runs": 0.0963, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.0918, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.047497, "model_over_probability": 0.0918, "model_under_probability": 0.9082, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.955, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9227, "edge_over": 0.0118, "edge_under": -0.0468, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0118, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "everyday_regular", "estimated_start_probability": 0.8896, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.69, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "lower_lineup_slot; historical_split_blend; strong_historical_slot; favorable_side_history", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.981, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 0.971, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", 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"CLE", "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-07T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 425, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1926, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1752, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.100768, "model_over_probability": 0.1752, "model_under_probability": 0.8248, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1905, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0153, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0153, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "projected", "lineup_confidence": "projected", 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