{ "date": "2026-09-09", "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:47:58.814484+00:00", "generated_at": "2026-09-09T23:48:06.344411", "artifact_type": "home_run_edges", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "projection_date": "2026-09-09", "probability_calibration_export": { "schema": "mithrandir.hr_probability_calibrator", "schema_version": 1, "calibration_version": "hr_prob_1_plus_logistic_v1_20260810", "status": "shadow_export_only", "applied": true, "source_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "active_model_version": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "source_field": "prob_1_plus_hr", "output_field": "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr", "ranking_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "recommendation_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "website_source": "prob_1_plus_hr", "policy": { "may_replace_raw": false, "may_drive_rankings": false, "may_drive_recommendations": false, "may_drive_website": false, "requires_contract_validation_before_consumption": true }, "fit_contract": { "prediction_epoch": "home_run_props_v2_conditional_v2", "point_in_time_cutoff_local": "11:00:00", "train": { "start": "2026-04-04", "end": "2026-05-14", "days": 17, "rows": 3114 }, "validation": { "start": "2026-05-19", "end": "2026-05-26", "days": 5, "rows": 852 }, "untouched_holdout": { "start": "2026-05-31", "end": "2026-06-18", "days": 7, "rows": 972, "raw_brier": 0.0839676311728395, "calibrated_brier": 0.08051768184195375, "relative_brier_improvement": 0.04108665783109144, "raw_ece": 0.05874423868312757, "calibrated_ece": 0.015167291866040421, "top_1_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_3_set_overlap": 1.0, "top_5_set_overlap": 1.0 } }, "row_count": 82 }, "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "manual_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 201, "matched_count": 201, "unmatched_count": 0 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook home run props are matched against the saved Mithrandir home run props artifact. For the common 0.5 HR market, the model over probability is the saved 1+ HR probability and the model under probability is its complement. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "market_handling": { "supported_market": "over_0_5_home_runs", "one_sided_format": "one_sided_hr", "two_sided_format": "two_sided_over_under", "model_push_probability": 0.0, "matching_order": [ "hitter_id", "normalized_hitter_name_plus_team_abbr_plus_opponent_abbr" ] }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "no_play_edge_threshold_below": 0.025, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.025, "play_edge_threshold": 0.045, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.07 }, "parallel_hr_confidence_layer": { "status": "available", "raw_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw", "primary_internal_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic", "secondary_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic", "parallel_rf_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "parallel_catboost_field": "hr_prob_catboost_safe", "parallel_hybrid_field": "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted", "parallel_logistic_field": "hr_prob_logistic_classifier", "parallel_rf_logistic_anchor_field": "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor", "parallel_refined_field": "hr_prob_refined", "bucket_field": "hr_confidence_bucket", "zone_field": "hr_confidence_zone_tag", "note": "RF-safe remains the ranking engine. CatBoost-safe, hybrid gap-adjusted, logistic classifier, RF-safe logistic-anchor, and refined probabilities are carried as parallel internal confidence fields only and do not replace the existing edge logic." }, "palantir_anchor_layer": { "status": "available", "anchor_model": "elastic_net", "projection_field": "projected_home_runs_palantir", "probability_field": "hr_prob_palantir", "confidence_label_field": "palantir_confidence_label", "signal_label_field": "palantir_signal_label", "support_layers": [ "projected_home_runs_elastic_net", "projected_home_runs_blended_safe", "projected_home_runs_baseline" ], "note": "Palantir is a stable projection-first internal anchor. These fields are additive and do not alter Fangorn ranking or HR edge ordering." }, "value_play_formula": { "version": "v2_value_score", "limit": 5, "formula": "value_score = max(0, (0.50 * edge_component + 0.30 * probability_component + 0.15 * payout_component + 0.05 * lineup_component - longshot_penalty)) * 100", "edge_component": "clamp((edge_over - 0.02) / 0.10, 0, 1)", "probability_component": "clamp((prob_1_plus_hr - 0.14) / 0.16, 0, 1)", "payout_component": "piecewise preference that peaks in the +200 to +350 range and fades above +350", "lineup_component": "1.0 if confirmed_lineup_flag else 0.92", "longshot_penalty": "0.10 * clamp((0.16 - prob_1_plus_hr) / 0.06, 0, 1) + 0.08 * clamp((over_odds - 400) / 200, 0, 1)", "eligibility": { "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tiers": [ "Strong", "Play", "Lean" ], "plus_money_only": true, "minimum_probability": 0.14, "extreme_longshot_odds_threshold": 400, "extreme_longshot_minimum_probability": 0.2, "selection_rule": "Top 5 unique hitters by best value_score row per hitter per date" } } }, "summary": { "total_rows": 201, "matched_rows": 201, "unmatched_rows": 0, "over_recommendation_count": 130, "under_recommendation_count": 0, "strong_count": 24, "play_count": 52, "lean_count": 54, "no_play_count": 71, "average_edge_over": 0.0365, "average_edge_under": -0.0741, "value_play_count": 5 }, "edge_count": 201, "edges": [ { "hitter_name": "Jasson Dom\u00ednguez", "hitter_id": 691176, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": -950, "expected_home_runs": 0.273, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2389, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.14642, "model_over_probability": 0.2389, "model_under_probability": 0.7611, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.9048, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1299, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8701, "edge_over": 0.1038, "edge_under": -0.1437, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1038, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.55, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.145, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.16, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.36, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.19, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.19, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2389, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2979, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3108, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1062, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1387, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2964, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2734, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3058, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2844, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1383, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1038, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1628, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1757, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0289, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1707, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1757, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1493, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.3108, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3371, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2964, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 1, "edge_direction_rank": 1, "value_score": 55.7, "value_rank": 1, "value_box_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1299, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 8.19, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 8.19, "palantir_prob_over": 0.18406768238586457, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2734, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8159323176141354, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.054167682385864585, "palantir_confidence": "High", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.273, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.273, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.17731299620037366, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.3108, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8226870037996263, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.047412996200373675, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1062, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1062, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8938, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0289, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.07786768238586457, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2734, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1383, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.3108, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1757, "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:47:58.814484+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jasson Dom\u00ednguez", "hitter_id": 691176, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 635, "under_odds": -895, "expected_home_runs": 0.273, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2389, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.14642, "model_over_probability": 0.2389, "model_under_probability": 0.7611, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1361, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8995, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1314, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8686, "edge_over": 0.1028, "edge_under": -0.1384, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1028, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 3, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.55, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.55, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.145, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.16, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 7.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 9.36, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.19, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.19, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2389, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2979, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3108, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1062, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1387, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2964, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2734, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3058, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2844, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1373, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.1028, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1618, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1747, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0299, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.1697, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1747, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1483, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.3108, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.3371, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2964, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 2, "edge_direction_rank": 2, "value_score": 55.2, "value_rank": 2, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": 0.1314, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 8.19, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 8.19, "palantir_prob_over": 0.18406768238586457, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.2734, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8159323176141354, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.052667682385864584, "palantir_confidence": "High", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.273, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.273, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.17731299620037366, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.3108, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8226870037996263, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": 0.045912996200373674, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1062, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1062, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8938, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0299, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.07786768238586457, "model_agreement_label": "disagreement", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2734, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1373, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.3108, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1747, "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:47:58.814484+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jasson Dom\u00ednguez", "hitter_id": 691176, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 635, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.273, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2389, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.14642, "model_over_probability": 0.2389, "model_under_probability": 0.7611, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1361, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, 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"projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.72, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.155, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.206, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1642, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.155, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1349, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1605, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1652, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1849, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1694, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1487, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0389, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.06, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0182, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.009, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0111, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0234, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.009, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 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"Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 6, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.2, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.2, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.036, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.006, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 6.57, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 12.0, 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"palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0914, "palantir_confidence": "Playable", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", "fangorn_source_column": "hr_prob_rf_safe", "fangorn_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "fangorn_projection": 0.1961, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.1961, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.10837899376252344, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.1143, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8916210062374765, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.004, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0802, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0802, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9198, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0381, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.06705555446531125, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2097, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1143, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:47:58.814484+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Spencer Horwitz", "hitter_id": 687462, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 675, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.2086, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1883, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.109814, "model_over_probability": 0.1883, "model_under_probability": 0.8117, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.129, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0593, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0593, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 7, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.05, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.05, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.984, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "hr_multiplier": 1.068, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 10.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 10.62, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 8.85, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.85, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1883, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1819, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.0759, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1138, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.181, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1686, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1987, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1725, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0396, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0593, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0529, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0501, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0531, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0697, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0501, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0435, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, 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trust profile.", "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "hr_confidence_projection_lookup_found": true, "edge_abs_rank": 52, "edge_direction_rank": 52, "value_score": null, "value_rank": null, "value_box_rank": null, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score", "model_lane_contract_version": "m3_phase1_home_runs_v1", "market_fair_probability": null, "palantir_coverage_status": "production", "palantir_source_column": "hr_prob_palantir", "palantir_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "palantir_projection": 8.85, "palantir_expected_home_runs": 8.85, "palantir_prob_over": 0.12184033131662966, "palantir_hr_prob": 0.1686, "palantir_prob_under": 0.8781596686833704, "palantir_projection_implied": null, "palantir_fair_over_odds": null, "palantir_fair_under_odds": null, "palantir_gap_pct": 0.0396, "palantir_confidence": "Watch", "palantir_p10": null, "palantir_p50": null, "palantir_p90": null, "fangorn_coverage_status": "production", 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"valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": 0.0134, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.03823566934835332, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1556, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1791, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:47:58.814484+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "hitter_id": 700250, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": -495, "expected_home_runs": 0.2788, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2433, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.149728, "model_over_probability": 0.2433, "model_under_probability": 0.7567, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8319, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.197, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.803, "edge_over": 0.0392, "edge_under": -0.0752, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0392, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 1, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.75, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.75, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 1.145, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 110.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.16, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 17.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.81, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 17.76, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.76, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2433, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2987, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3108, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1483, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1702, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2973, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2527, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2781, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0486, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0392, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0946, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1067, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0558, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0966, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1067, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.074, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.3108, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.2829, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", 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"fangorn_projection": 0.2788, "fangorn_expected_home_runs": 0.2788, "fangorn_prob_over": 0.17731299620037366, "fangorn_hr_prob": 0.3108, "fangorn_prob_under": 0.8226870037996263, "fangorn_projection_implied": null, "fangorn_fair_over_odds": null, "fangorn_fair_under_odds": null, "fangorn_gap_pct": -0.019687003799626346, "fangorn_confidence": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_signal_label": "Lighter Support / Standard Exposure", "fangorn_p10": null, "fangorn_p50": null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.1483, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.1483, "valinor_prob_under": 0.8517, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0558, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.029012996200373675, "model_agreement_label": "mixed", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.2527, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "palantir_gap_pct_training_time": 0.0486, "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.3108, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "fangorn_gap_pct_training_time": 0.1067, "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:47:58.814484+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jose Altuve", "hitter_id": 514888, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": -730, "expected_home_runs": 0.2238, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2005, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.118399, "model_over_probability": 0.2005, "model_under_probability": 0.7995, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8795, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.155, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.845, "edge_over": 0.0392, "edge_under": -0.08, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0392, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "ACTIVE", "availability_factor": 1.0, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 4.45, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 4.45, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", "handedness_matchup": "opposite_side", "pitcher_hr_contact_allowance_multiplier": 0.905, "pitch_mix_interaction_score": 105.0, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "hr_multiplier": 1.155, "source_file": "shadow_book_lines.csv", "matching_method": "hitter_id", "projected_home_runs_baseline_season": 21.0, "projected_home_runs_rf_safe_season": 21.23, "projected_home_runs_catboost_safe_season": null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 22.59, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2005, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1843, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1197, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.1491, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.1834, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.214, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2025, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1758, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0527, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0392, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.023, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0178, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0416, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0412, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0178, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.0145, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_anchored_support_gap": 0.0, "fangorn_anchor_logistic_gap": 0.1791, "fangorn_projection_spread_ratio": 0.011, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1834, 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null, "projected_home_runs_elastic_net_season": null, "projected_home_runs_blended_safe_season": 13.88, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.88, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2056, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.25, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta": 0.1411, "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta_raw": 0.165, "hr_valinor_model_version": "hr_valinor_nonstacked_lgbm_beta_20260525T160439Z", "hr_prob_refined": 0.2489, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2521, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2673, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2395, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0686, "hr_edge_catboost_safe": 0.0221, "hr_edge_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0665, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0762, "hr_edge_valinor_nonstacked_beta": -0.0424, "hr_edge_rf_safe_raw": 0.0838, "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0762, 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"PHI", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "timestamp": "2026-09-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 1150, "under_odds": -2400, "expected_home_runs": 0.1068, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1013, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.053171, "model_over_probability": 0.1013, "model_under_probability": 0.8987, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.08, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.96, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.0769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.9231, "edge_over": 0.0213, "edge_under": -0.0613, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0213, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 4, "lineup_source": "confirmed", 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"palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1143, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:47:58.814484+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Royce Lewis", "hitter_id": 668904, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "timestamp": "2026-09-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "one_sided_hr", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 480, "under_odds": null, "expected_home_runs": 0.1976, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1793, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.10358, "model_over_probability": 0.1793, "model_under_probability": 0.8207, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1724, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, 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null, "fangorn_p90": null, "valinor_coverage_status": "production", "valinor_source_column": "hr_prob_valinor_nonstacked_beta", "valinor_model_version": "home_run_edges_v1_overlay", "valinor_projection": null, "valinor_expected_home_runs": null, "valinor_prob_over": 0.0965, "valinor_hr_prob": 0.0965, "valinor_prob_under": 0.9035, "valinor_projection_implied": null, "valinor_fair_over_odds": null, "valinor_fair_under_odds": null, "valinor_gap_pct": -0.0759, "valinor_confidence": null, "valinor_signal_label": "Non-stacked LightGBM beta", "valinor_p10": null, "valinor_p50": null, "valinor_p90": null, "model_lane_count": 3, "model_spread": 0.0236617441973343, "model_agreement_label": "aligned", "recommended_display_lane": null, "palantir_prob_over_training_time": 0.1516, "palantir_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "palantir_calibration_version": "calibration_20260830T113523Z", "fangorn_prob_over_training_time": 0.1422, "fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:47:58.814484+00:00" }, { "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "timestamp": "2026-09-09T12:00:00", "market_type": "home_run_over_0_5", "market_format": "two_sided_over_under", "recommendation_threshold_version": "v1_2_calibrated", "strong_threshold": 0.07, "play_threshold": 0.045, "lean_threshold": 0.025, "line": 0.5, "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": -505, "expected_home_runs": 0.2311, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2063, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.122534, "model_over_probability": 0.2063, "model_under_probability": 0.7937, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8347, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1933, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8067, "edge_over": 0.0063, "edge_under": -0.041, "recommended_side": "No 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0.1821, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1665, "calibrated_prob_1_plus_hr": 0.094859, "model_over_probability": 0.1665, "model_under_probability": 0.8335, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1626, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.8773, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.1564, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.8436, "edge_over": 0.0039, "edge_under": -0.0438, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0039, "play_tier": null, "no_play_reason": "Model edge did not clear the minimum threshold.", "lineup_slot": 8, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "likely_starter_flag": true, "platoon_risk_flag": false, "platoon_role_type": "confirmed_lineup", "estimated_start_probability": 1.0, "availability_status": "IL", "availability_factor": 0.88, "active_roster_flag": true, "projected_plate_appearances_raw": 3.95, "xpa_adjusted_for_platoon": 3.95, "opportunity_penalty_reason": "confirmed_lineup", 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"fangorn_calibration_status": "recalibrated", "fangorn_calibration_version": "calibration_20260902T113756Z", "captured_at": "2026-09-10T03:47:58.814484+00:00" } ], "value_plays": [ { "hitter_name": "Jasson Dom\u00ednguez", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 640, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2389, "edge_over": 0.1038, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "hr_multiplier": 1.16, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 55.7, "value_rank": 1, "value_row_rank": 1, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Luis Garc\u00eda Jr.", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 635, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2343, "edge_over": 0.0982, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Strong", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "hr_multiplier": 1.16, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 52.0, "value_rank": 2, "value_row_rank": 4, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Cody Bellinger", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 455, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2435, "edge_over": 0.0633, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": "Play", "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "lineup_source": "confirmed", "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "hr_multiplier": 1.16, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "value_score": 48.1, "value_rank": 3, "value_row_rank": 7, "value_formula_version": "v2_value_score" }, { "hitter_name": "Ben Rice", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 400, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2433, "edge_over": 0.0433, "recommended_side": "Over", "play_tier": 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