{ "date": "2026-05-26", "generated_at": "2026-05-26T00:30:34.093144", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-05-26\\home_run_edges_2026-05-26.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "hitter_id": 701350, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Spencer Strider", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 700, "expected_home_runs": 0.2147, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1932, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2265, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2517, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1949, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0845, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1734, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2429, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2138, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0841, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; 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descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0624, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0349, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1329, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0135, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0416, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 7, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 575, "expected_home_runs": 0.2103, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1897, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2234, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1871, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0718, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1434, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2361, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.207, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0714, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; 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descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0298, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0059, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1489, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0148, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0404, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 9, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 570, "expected_home_runs": 0.2103, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1897, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.72, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2234, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1871, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0719, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1434, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2361, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.207, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0714, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0298, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0059, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1489, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0148, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0404, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Jason Alexander", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 515, "expected_home_runs": 0.2478, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2195, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.88, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2327, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1888, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0006, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0738, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1481, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2238, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1951, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0732, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0165, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0145, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.162, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0281, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0569, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }