{ "date": "2026-05-28", "generated_at": "2026-05-27T23:35:14.094491", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs\\betting\\home_run_edges\\2026-05-28\\home_run_edges_2026-05-28.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 515, "expected_home_runs": 0.2375, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2114, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.88, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2242, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1872, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0721, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1424, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1874, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0715, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present 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present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0152, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0215, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1632, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0294, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0475, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Nimmo", "hitter_id": 607043, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 505, "expected_home_runs": 0.2375, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2114, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.88, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2242, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1872, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0007, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0722, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1424, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1874, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0715, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", 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false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "hitter_id": 694497, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 780, "expected_home_runs": 0.181, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1656, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1793, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1792, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.063, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.111, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2113, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1836, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0626, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0655, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0026, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1132, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0208, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.052, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "hitter_id": 694497, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 775, "expected_home_runs": 0.181, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1656, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1793, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1792, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.063, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.111, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2113, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1836, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0626, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0648, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0033, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1139, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0201, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0513, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 6, "hitter_name": "Evan Carter", "hitter_id": 694497, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 775, "expected_home_runs": 0.181, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1656, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 3.9, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1793, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1792, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.063, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.111, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2113, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1836, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0626, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0648, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.0033, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1139, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0201, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0513, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 7, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "hitter_id": 694671, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 570, "expected_home_runs": 0.2252, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2016, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1999, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1841, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0671, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1568, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2053, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1783, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0667, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0298, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0075, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.1489, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0148, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0523, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 8, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "hitter_id": 694671, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 565, "expected_home_runs": 0.2252, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2016, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1999, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1841, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0671, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1568, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2053, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1783, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0667, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0287, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0064, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.15, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0159, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0512, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 9, "hitter_name": "Wyatt Langford", "hitter_id": 694671, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 565, "expected_home_runs": 0.2252, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2016, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.63, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1999, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1841, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0004, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1345, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0671, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1568, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2053, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1783, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0667, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0287, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0064, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.15, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0159, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0512, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "Nathan Lukes", "hitter_id": 664770, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 960, "expected_home_runs": 0.1471, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1368, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 1.59, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1593, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1744, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": 0.0003, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1344, "hr_prob_refined": 0.0589, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.0383, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2025, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1758, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Conservative Trim", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 3, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0586, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 60, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0848, "hr_edge_palantir": -0.056, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": -0.094, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0401, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0425, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }