{
  "date": "2026-06-03",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-02T23:32:58.587765",
  "artifact_type": "hr_core_board",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-06-03/home_run_edges_2026-06-03.json",
  "summary": {
    "board_size": 10,
    "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability"
  },
  "rows": [
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      "board_type": "hr_core_board",
      "rank": 1,
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      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2375,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
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      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2508,
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      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
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      "damage_score": 1,
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      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0888,
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    {
      "board_type": "hr_core_board",
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      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2375,
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      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
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      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2508,
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      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
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      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
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      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
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      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0858,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0656,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0858,
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      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0415,
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      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
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    {
      "board_type": "hr_core_board",
      "rank": 3,
      "hitter_name": "James Wood",
      "hitter_id": 695578,
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      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
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      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.57,
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      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2517,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.2508,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2395,
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      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2375,
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      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
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      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2508,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
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      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
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      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0858,
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      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0858,
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      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0415,
      "play_tier": "Lean",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
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    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_core_board",
      "rank": 4,
      "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams",
      "hitter_id": 682928,
      "team_abbr": "WSH",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 590,
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      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2528,
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      "hr_prob_refined": 0.254,
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      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2239,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
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      "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT",
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      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1,
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      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.254,
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      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1148,
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      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
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      "edge_over": 0.0861,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "lineup_slot": 1,
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    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_core_board",
      "rank": 5,
      "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams",
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      "opponent_abbr": "MIA",
      "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer",
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      "over_odds": 585,
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      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2239,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT",
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      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.254,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1137,
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      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
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      "edge_over": 0.085,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "lineup_slot": 1,
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    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_core_board",
      "rank": 6,
      "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams",
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      "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer",
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      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2528,
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      "hr_prob_refined": 0.254,
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      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2239,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT",
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      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1,
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      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.254,
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      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1137,
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      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
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      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
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      "play_tier": "Strong",
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    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_core_board",
      "rank": 7,
      "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi",
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      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1869,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.1878,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2112,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2326,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2036,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1878,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.044,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0761,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.044,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0872,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
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    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_core_board",
      "rank": 8,
      "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi",
      "hitter_id": 643217,
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      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley",
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      "expected_home_runs": 0.2514,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2223,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.1,
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      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1869,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.1878,
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      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2036,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1878,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.044,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0761,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.044,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0872,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "lineup_slot": 4,
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    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_core_board",
      "rank": 9,
      "hitter_name": "Andrew Benintendi",
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      "expected_home_runs": 0.2514,
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      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.1,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2223,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1869,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.1878,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2112,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2326,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2036,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1878,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.044,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0761,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.044,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0872,
      "play_tier": "Strong",
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_core_board",
      "rank": 10,
      "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony",
      "hitter_id": 701350,
      "team_abbr": "BOS",
      "opponent_abbr": "BAL",
      "pitcher_name": "Chris Bassitt",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 700,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2011,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1822,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.8,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1822,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.18,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.1797,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1952,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2294,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2005,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1797,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0541,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0702,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0541,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0572,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    }
  ]
}