{
  "date": "2026-06-08",
  "generated_at": "2026-06-07T23:32:38.205533",
  "artifact_type": "hr_select_board",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-06-08/home_run_edges_2026-06-08.json",
  "summary": {
    "board_size": 5,
    "selection_logic": "top_5_by_calibrated_rf_safe_edge"
  },
  "rows": [
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 1,
      "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_id": 592885,
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 520,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2212,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1984,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.69,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1984,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2487,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.2475,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2219,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2441,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.215,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2475,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0984,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0606,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0984,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0371,
      "play_tier": "Lean",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 2,
      "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_id": 592885,
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 515,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2212,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1984,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.69,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1984,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2487,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.2475,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2219,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2441,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.215,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2475,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0971,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0593,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0971,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0358,
      "play_tier": "Lean",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 3,
      "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich",
      "hitter_id": 592885,
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "over_odds": 515,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2212,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1984,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.69,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1984,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2487,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.2475,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2219,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2441,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.215,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2475,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0971,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0593,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0971,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0358,
      "play_tier": "Lean",
      "lineup_slot": 2,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 4,
      "hitter_name": "Brice Turang",
      "hitter_id": 668930,
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 1010,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.147,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1367,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.93,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1367,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1524,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.1532,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1569,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1767,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1544,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1532,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_score": 28,
      "suppression_reason_count": 3,
      "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0672,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0668,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0672,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0466,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 5,
      "hitter_name": "Brice Turang",
      "hitter_id": 668930,
      "team_abbr": "MIL",
      "opponent_abbr": "ATH",
      "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "over_odds": 990,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.147,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1367,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.93,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1573,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1367,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1524,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1573,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.1532,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1569,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1767,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1573,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1544,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1532,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_score": 28,
      "suppression_reason_count": 3,
      "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0656,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0652,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0656,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.045,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 1,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    }
  ]
}