{ "date": "2026-06-10", "generated_at": "2026-06-09T23:33:33.240577", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-06-10/home_run_edges_2026-06-10.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Jos\u00e9 Ram\u00edrez", "hitter_id": 608070, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "pitcher_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 395, "expected_home_runs": 0.2699, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2365, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 27.86, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2365, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1895, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1906, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2284, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2202, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1918, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1906, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; 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descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0151, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0346, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0151, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0334, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 8, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_id": 547180, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 410, "expected_home_runs": 0.2583, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2276, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2276, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1879, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1888, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2288, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1874, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1888, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.017, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0327, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.017, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0315, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 9, "hitter_name": "Bryce Harper", "hitter_id": 547180, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 405, "expected_home_runs": 0.2583, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2276, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 25.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2276, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1879, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1888, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2288, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2155, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1874, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1888, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0189, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0308, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0189, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0296, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 780, "expected_home_runs": 0.2154, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1938, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1938, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1835, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1821, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1681, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2098, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1822, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1821, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 40, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0655, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0545, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0655, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0802, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }