{ "date": "2026-06-14", "generated_at": "2026-06-13T23:33:27.698269", "artifact_type": "hr_conviction_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-06-14/home_run_edges_2026-06-14.json", "summary": { "board_size": 5, "selection_logic": "filtered_high_conviction_singles", "filters": { "min_probability": 0.25, "min_edge": 0.08, "max_odds": 650.0, "max_lineup_slot": 6 } }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_conviction_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "hitter_id": 695578, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 485, "expected_home_runs": 0.27, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2366, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.57, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2366, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2542, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2551, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2627, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2906, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.266, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2551, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0888, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0918, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0888, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0657, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_conviction_board", "rank": 2, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "hitter_id": 695578, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 475, "expected_home_runs": 0.27, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2366, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.57, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2366, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2542, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2551, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2627, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2906, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.266, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2551, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0858, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0888, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0858, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0627, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_conviction_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "James Wood", "hitter_id": 695578, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 475, "expected_home_runs": 0.27, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2366, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.57, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2366, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2542, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2551, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2627, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2906, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.266, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2551, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0858, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0888, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0858, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0627, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_conviction_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 590, "expected_home_runs": 0.282, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2457, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2457, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2555, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2569, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2559, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2685, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2409, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2569, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Strong structure worth monitoring, but not as broad or clean as the premium pocket.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1148, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.111, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1148, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.1008, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_conviction_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 585, "expected_home_runs": 0.282, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2457, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2457, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2555, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2569, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2559, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2685, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2409, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2569, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Strong structure worth monitoring, but not as broad or clean as the premium pocket.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1137, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1099, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1137, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0997, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" } ] }