{ "date": "2026-06-16", "generated_at": "2026-06-15T23:33:22.129371", "artifact_type": "hr_select_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-06-16/home_run_edges_2026-06-16.json", "summary": { "board_size": 5, "selection_logic": "top_5_by_calibrated_rf_safe_edge" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "hitter_id": 592885, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 485, "expected_home_runs": 0.2299, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2054, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2054, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2499, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2488, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2296, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2524, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2236, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2488, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0888, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0587, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0888, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0345, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 2, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "hitter_id": 592885, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 480, "expected_home_runs": 0.2299, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2054, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2054, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2499, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2488, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2296, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2524, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2236, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2488, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0873, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0572, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0873, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.033, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "Christian Yelich", "hitter_id": 592885, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 480, "expected_home_runs": 0.2299, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2054, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 22.69, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2054, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2499, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2488, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2296, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2524, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2236, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2488, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0873, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0572, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0873, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.033, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "hitter_id": 668930, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 865, "expected_home_runs": 0.1795, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1643, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1643, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1747, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1762, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1881, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2113, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1836, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1762, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0755, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0845, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0755, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0607, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Brice Turang", "hitter_id": 668930, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 855, "expected_home_runs": 0.1795, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1643, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.93, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1643, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1747, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1762, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1881, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2113, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1836, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1762, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0744, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0834, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0744, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0596, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }