{ "date": "2026-06-17", "generated_at": "2026-06-16T23:34:46.275316", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-06-17/home_run_edges_2026-06-17.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Eli White", "hitter_id": 642201, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 530, "expected_home_runs": 0.2437, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2163, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.47, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2163, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2995, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3108, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2919, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2911, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3082, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2872, 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"expected_home_runs": 0.2437, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2163, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.47, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2163, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2995, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3108, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2919, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2911, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3082, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2872, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2919, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as 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"hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 475, "expected_home_runs": 0.2646, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2325, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2325, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2532, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2543, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2563, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2844, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2589, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", 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"hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0858, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0586, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 465, "expected_home_runs": 0.2646, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2325, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2325, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2532, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2543, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2563, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2844, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2589, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable 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"Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0827, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0793, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0827, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0555, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 6, "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino", "hitter_id": 686469, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 465, "expected_home_runs": 0.2646, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2325, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.5, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2325, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2532, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2543, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2563, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2844, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2589, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2543, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0827, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0793, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0827, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0555, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 7, "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "hitter_id": 669477, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 640, "expected_home_runs": 0.2313, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2065, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2065, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2501, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2491, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.219, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2774, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2508, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2491, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 41, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1246, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0839, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1246, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0714, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 7, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 8, "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "hitter_id": 669477, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 640, "expected_home_runs": 0.2313, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2065, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2065, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2501, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2491, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.219, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2774, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2508, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2491, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 41, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1246, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0839, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1246, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0714, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 7, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 9, "hitter_name": "Casey Schmitt", "hitter_id": 669477, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 640, "expected_home_runs": 0.2313, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2065, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 9.62, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2065, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2501, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2491, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.219, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2774, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2508, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2491, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 41, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1246, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0839, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1246, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0714, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 7, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "Bo Bichette", "hitter_id": 666182, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 695, "expected_home_runs": 0.264, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.232, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.12, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.232, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2531, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2542, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2481, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2663, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2385, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2542, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1339, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1223, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1339, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.1062, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" } ] }