{ "date": "2026-07-21", "generated_at": "2026-07-20T23:33:13.408701", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-07-21/home_run_edges_2026-07-21.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 655, "expected_home_runs": 0.1856, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1694, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1694, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1762, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1772, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.188, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2295, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2005, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1772, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0466, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0555, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0466, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0369, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 2, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 655, "expected_home_runs": 0.1856, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1694, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1694, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1762, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1772, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.188, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2295, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2005, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1772, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0466, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0555, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0466, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0369, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "Jonathan Aranda", "hitter_id": 666018, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 650, "expected_home_runs": 0.1856, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1694, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.1, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1694, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1762, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1772, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.188, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2295, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2005, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1772, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 28, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, softened start expectation.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0458, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0547, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0458, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0361, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 575, "expected_home_runs": 0.2028, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1836, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1836, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1805, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.18, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1897, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2287, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1998, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.18, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.031, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0416, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.031, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0355, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 570, "expected_home_runs": 0.2028, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1836, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1836, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1805, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.18, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1897, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2287, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1998, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.18, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0298, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0404, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0298, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0343, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 6, "hitter_name": "Yandy D\u00edaz", "hitter_id": 650490, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 570, "expected_home_runs": 0.2028, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1836, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 20.75, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1836, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1805, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.18, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1897, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2287, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1998, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.18, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0298, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0404, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0298, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0343, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 7, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 590, "expected_home_runs": 0.227, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2031, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2031, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1849, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1839, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2118, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2225, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1939, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1839, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0342, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0669, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0342, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0582, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 8, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 585, "expected_home_runs": 0.227, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2031, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2031, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1849, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1839, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2118, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2225, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1939, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1839, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0331, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0658, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0331, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0571, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 9, "hitter_name": "CJ Abrams", "hitter_id": 682928, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 585, "expected_home_runs": 0.227, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2031, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.87, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2031, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1849, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1839, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2118, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2225, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1939, "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1839, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 23, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, mild park drag.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0331, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0658, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0331, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0571, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "Roman Anthony", "hitter_id": 701350, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 700, "expected_home_runs": 0.1928, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1754, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 10.8, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1791, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1754, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.178, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1791, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1784, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.188, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2211, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1791, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1926, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1784, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0541, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.063, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0541, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0504, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" } ] }