{
  "date": "2026-07-30",
  "generated_at": "2026-07-30T23:58:34.515899",
  "artifact_type": "hr_conviction_board",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-07-30/home_run_edges_2026-07-30.json",
  "summary": {
    "board_size": 3,
    "selection_logic": "filtered_high_conviction_singles",
    "filters": {
      "min_probability": 0.25,
      "min_edge": 0.08,
      "max_odds": 650.0,
      "max_lineup_slot": 6
    }
  },
  "rows": [
    {
      "board_type": "hr_conviction_board",
      "rank": 1,
      "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_id": 686469,
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 475,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2624,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2308,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.5,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2308,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2528,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.2539,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2545,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2824,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2566,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "High",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2539,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Elite Damage",
      "damage_score": 3,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust",
      "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0858,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0806,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0858,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0569,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_conviction_board",
      "rank": 2,
      "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_id": 686469,
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 465,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2624,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2308,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.5,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2308,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2528,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.2539,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2545,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2824,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2566,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "High",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2539,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Elite Damage",
      "damage_score": 3,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust",
      "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0827,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0775,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0827,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0538,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_conviction_board",
      "rank": 3,
      "hitter_name": "Vinnie Pasquantino",
      "hitter_id": 686469,
      "team_abbr": "KC",
      "opponent_abbr": "MIN",
      "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "over_odds": 465,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2624,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2308,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 23.5,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2308,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2528,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.2539,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2545,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2824,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2566,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "High",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2539,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Elite Damage",
      "damage_score": 3,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.",
      "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY",
      "suppression_label": "Clear Runway",
      "suppression_score": 8,
      "suppression_reason_count": 1,
      "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.",
      "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust",
      "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0827,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0775,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0827,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0538,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 3,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "neutral"
    }
  ]
}