{
  "date": "2026-08-02",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-02T23:50:39.780457",
  "artifact_type": "hr_select_board",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-08-02/home_run_edges_2026-08-02.json",
  "summary": {
    "board_size": 5,
    "selection_logic": "top_5_by_calibrated_rf_safe_edge"
  },
  "rows": [
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 1,
      "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom",
      "hitter_id": 691016,
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 585,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2158,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1941,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.43,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1941,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2479,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.2466,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2473,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2473,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2183,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2466,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_score": 23,
      "suppression_reason_count": 2,
      "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1137,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1013,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1137,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0481,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 2,
      "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom",
      "hitter_id": 691016,
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 580,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2158,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1941,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.43,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1941,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2479,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.2466,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2473,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2473,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2183,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2466,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_score": 23,
      "suppression_reason_count": 2,
      "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1126,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1002,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1126,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.047,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 3,
      "hitter_name": "Tyler Soderstrom",
      "hitter_id": 691016,
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
      "over_odds": 580,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2158,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1941,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.43,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1941,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2479,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.2466,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2473,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2473,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2183,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2466,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_score": 23,
      "suppression_reason_count": 2,
      "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1126,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1002,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1126,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.047,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 5,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 4,
      "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler",
      "hitter_id": 671732,
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero",
      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
      "over_odds": 545,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2348,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2093,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.33,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2093,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2506,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.2496,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2237,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2422,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2131,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2496,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_score": 23,
      "suppression_reason_count": 2,
      "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1047,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0687,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1047,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0543,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    },
    {
      "board_type": "hr_select_board",
      "rank": 5,
      "hitter_name": "Lawrence Butler",
      "hitter_id": 671732,
      "team_abbr": "ATH",
      "opponent_abbr": "DET",
      "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 540,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.2348,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2093,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.33,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2093,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2506,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_refined": 0.2496,
      "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2237,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2422,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2131,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Playable",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2496,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.",
      "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Moderate Damage",
      "damage_score": 1,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5",
      "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.",
      "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression",
      "suppression_score": 23,
      "suppression_reason_count": 2,
      "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.",
      "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Neutral Trust",
      "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1035,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0675,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1035,
      "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%",
      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone",
      "edge_over": 0.0531,
      "play_tier": "Play",
      "lineup_slot": 4,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly"
    }
  ]
}