{ "date": "2026-08-09", "generated_at": "2026-08-10T00:01:42.759166", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-08-09/home_run_edges_2026-08-09.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Eli White", "hitter_id": 642201, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "pitcher_name": "J.T. 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"Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0597, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0352, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0597, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0264, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "Iv\u00e1n Herrera", "hitter_id": 671056, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 560, "expected_home_runs": 0.232, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2071, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 13.82, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.2597, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2071, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2502, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.2597, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2492, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2743, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2743, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.2597, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2473, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Balanced Lift", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2492, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1082, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1228, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1082, "hr_confidence_bucket": "25-30%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Strong Zone", "edge_over": 0.0556, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 2, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }