{ "date": "2026-09-09", "generated_at": "2026-09-09T23:48:22.582049", "artifact_type": "hr_select_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-09-09/home_run_edges_2026-09-09.json", "summary": { "board_size": 5, "selection_logic": "top_5_by_calibrated_rf_safe_edge" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Derek Hill", "hitter_id": 656537, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 705, "expected_home_runs": 0.2192, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1968, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.67, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3097, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1968, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2962, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3097, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2872, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1851, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2943, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3097, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2704, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2872, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 25, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1855, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0609, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1855, "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "edge_over": 0.0726, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 2, "hitter_name": "Derek Hill", "hitter_id": 656537, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 705, "expected_home_runs": 0.2192, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1968, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.67, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3097, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1968, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2962, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3097, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2872, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1851, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2943, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3097, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2704, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2872, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 25, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1855, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0609, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1855, "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "edge_over": 0.0726, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "Derek Hill", "hitter_id": 656537, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 700, "expected_home_runs": 0.2192, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1968, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 4.67, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3097, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1968, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2962, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3097, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2872, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1851, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.2943, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3097, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2704, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2872, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 25, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1847, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0601, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1847, "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "edge_over": 0.0718, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Jasson Dom\u00ednguez", "hitter_id": 691176, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 640, "expected_home_runs": 0.273, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2389, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.19, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2389, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2979, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3108, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2964, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2734, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3058, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2844, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2964, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1757, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1383, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1757, "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "edge_over": 0.1038, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Jasson Dom\u00ednguez", "hitter_id": 691176, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 635, "expected_home_runs": 0.273, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.2389, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.19, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.3108, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.2389, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.2979, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.3108, "hr_prob_refined": 0.2964, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.2734, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.3058, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.3108, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.2844, "palantir_confidence_label": "High", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.2964, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "ELITE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Elite Damage", "damage_score": 3, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Highest HR-driven damage concentration from rank, trust, and probability context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_TRUST", "trust_label": "Watchlist Trust", "trust_note": "Elite damage and a clean runway make this worth watching even without top support.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1747, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.1373, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1747, "hr_confidence_bucket": "30%+", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Premium Zone", "edge_over": 0.1028, "play_tier": "Strong", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": true, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly" } ] }