{ "date": "2026-09-30", "generated_at": "2026-09-30T23:35:17.775229", "artifact_type": "hr_select_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-09-30/home_run_edges_2026-09-30.json", "summary": { "board_size": 5, "selection_logic": "top_5_by_calibrated_rf_safe_edge" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 780, "expected_home_runs": 0.1945, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1768, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1768, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1735, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.173, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1531, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1915, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1664, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.173, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0585, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0395, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0585, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0632, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 2, "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 770, "expected_home_runs": 0.1945, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1768, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1768, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1735, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.173, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1531, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1915, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1664, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.173, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0572, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0382, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0572, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0619, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "Brandon Marsh", "hitter_id": 669016, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 770, "expected_home_runs": 0.1945, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1768, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.11, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1768, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1735, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.173, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1531, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1915, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1664, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.173, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 50, "suppression_reason_count": 4, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0572, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0382, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0572, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0619, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Carlos Correa", "hitter_id": 621043, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 770, "expected_home_runs": 0.197, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1788, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 12.78, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1788, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1741, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1735, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1646, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1907, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1657, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1735, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 30, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: mid-late lineup slot, lighter opportunity.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Support exists, but suppression is materially weakening the trust profile.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0572, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0497, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0572, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0639, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 6, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_select_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Jeremy Pe\u00f1a", "hitter_id": 665161, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 765, "expected_home_runs": 0.193, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1755, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 14.27, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1755, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1731, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1728, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1786, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1968, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1709, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1728, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 8, "suppression_reason_count": 1, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0565, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.063, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0565, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0599, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 1, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }