{ "date": "2026-10-03", "generated_at": "2026-10-03T23:35:54.504841", "artifact_type": "hr_core_board", "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-10-03/home_run_edges_2026-10-03.json", "summary": { "board_size": 10, "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability" }, "rows": [ { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 1, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 645, "expected_home_runs": 0.2002, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1814, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1814, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1749, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.174, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1726, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1814, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1581, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.174, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0379, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0384, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0379, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0472, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 2, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 645, "expected_home_runs": 0.2002, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1814, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1814, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1749, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.174, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1726, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1814, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1581, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.174, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0379, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0384, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0379, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0472, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 3, "hitter_name": "William Contreras", "hitter_id": 661388, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 640, "expected_home_runs": 0.2002, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1814, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 17.03, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1721, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1814, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1749, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1721, "hr_prob_refined": 0.174, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1726, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1814, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1721, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1581, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.174, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.037, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0375, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.037, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0463, "play_tier": "Play", "lineup_slot": 3, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 4, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "hitter_id": 592206, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 575, "expected_home_runs": 0.1991, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1805, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1805, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1514, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1498, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1595, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1458, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1316, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1498, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0059, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0114, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0059, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0324, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 4, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 5, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "hitter_id": 592206, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 570, "expected_home_runs": 0.1991, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1805, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1805, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1514, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1498, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1595, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1458, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1316, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable 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"NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0071, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0102, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0071, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0312, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 4, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 6, "hitter_name": "Nick Castellanos", "hitter_id": 592206, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 570, "expected_home_runs": 0.1991, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1805, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 18.33, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1422, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1805, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1514, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1422, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1498, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1595, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1458, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1422, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1316, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1498, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "MODERATE_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Moderate Damage", "damage_score": 1, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Some HR-driven damage support is present, but without elite trust concentration.", "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_score": 36, "suppression_reason_count": 3, "suppression_note": "Some drag is present: opportunity penalty, contact-suppressing pitcher.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL_TRUST", "trust_label": "Neutral Trust", "trust_note": "Mixed interaction context; descriptive, but not a strong trust modifier yet.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0071, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0102, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0071, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0312, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 4, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 7, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_id": 645277, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 615, "expected_home_runs": 0.1909, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1738, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1738, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1447, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1432, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1484, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1394, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1273, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1432, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0044, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0085, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0044, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0339, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 5, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 8, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_id": 645277, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "over_odds": 615, "expected_home_runs": 0.1909, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1738, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1738, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1447, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1432, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1484, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1394, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1273, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1432, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0044, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0085, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0044, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0339, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 5, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 9, "hitter_name": "Ozzie Albies", "hitter_id": 645277, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "over_odds": 610, "expected_home_runs": 0.1909, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1738, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 15.15, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1355, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1738, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1447, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1355, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1432, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.1484, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1394, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1355, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1273, "palantir_confidence_label": "Watch", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1432, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Low Damage", "damage_score": 0, "damage_rank_bucket": "outside_top_5", "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.", "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_score": 18, "suppression_reason_count": 2, "suppression_note": "Little contextual drag is present around the HR signal.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Low-damage structure is a consistent negative interaction context.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0053, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0076, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.0053, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.033, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 5, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" }, { "board_type": "hr_core_board", "rank": 10, "hitter_name": "Jake Cronenworth", "hitter_id": 630105, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "over_odds": 905, "expected_home_runs": 0.1519, "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1409, "projected_home_runs_palantir": 11.92, "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.1143, "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1409, "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.1207, "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_prob_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.1143, "hr_prob_refined": 0.1196, "hr_prob_palantir": 0.13, "hr_prob_rf_safe_raw": 0.1192, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.1143, "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.1143, "palantir_confidence_label": "Low", "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus", "fangorn_support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "fangorn_support_label": "Lighter Support", "fangorn_support_warning_count": 2, "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT", "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift", "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.1196, "fangorn_exposure_tier": "STANDARD_EXPOSURE", "fangorn_exposure_label": "Standard Exposure", "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Lighter Support + Model Lift", "fangorn_exposure_note": "Usable as moderated upside, not a primary trust pocket.", "damage_tier": "STRONG_DAMAGE", "damage_label": "Strong Damage", "damage_score": 2, "damage_rank_bucket": "top_5", "damage_note": "Strong damage support from top-board HR context or fuller trust alignment.", "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_score": 64, "suppression_reason_count": 5, "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: late lineup slot, lighter opportunity, opportunity penalty.", "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST", "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust", "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.", "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": 0.0148, "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0305, "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null, "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": 0.0148, "hr_confidence_bucket": "Below 25%", "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone", "edge_over": 0.0414, "play_tier": "Lean", "lineup_slot": 7, "confirmed_lineup_flag": false, "environment_summary": "neutral" } ] }