{
  "date": "2026-10-19",
  "generated_at": "2026-10-19T23:34:05.541113",
  "artifact_type": "hr_core_board",
  "source_artifact_path": "outputs/betting/home_run_edges/2026-10-19/home_run_edges_2026-10-19.json",
  "summary": {
    "board_size": 3,
    "selection_logic": "top_10_by_calibrated_rf_safe_probability"
  },
  "rows": [
    {
      "board_type": "hr_core_board",
      "rank": 1,
      "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann",
      "hitter_id": 682177,
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta",
      "sportsbook": "DraftKings",
      "over_odds": 810,
      "expected_home_runs": 0.15,
      "prob_1_plus_hr": 0.1393,
      "projected_home_runs_palantir": 8.89,
      "hr_prob_rf_safe": 0.0471,
      "hr_prob_catboost_safe": 0.1393,
      "hr_prob_hybrid_gap_adjusted": 0.0581,
      "hr_prob_logistic_classifier": null,
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      "hr_prob_refined": 0.0655,
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      "hr_prob_rf_safe_calibrated_logistic": 0.092,
      "palantir_confidence_label": "Low",
      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT",
      "fangorn_support_label": "Steady Support",
      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0655,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
      "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Low Damage",
      "damage_score": 0,
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      "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.",
      "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression",
      "suppression_score": 68,
      "suppression_reason_count": 5,
      "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.",
      "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust",
      "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.0628,
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      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
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    {
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      "team_abbr": "CLE",
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      "sportsbook": "FanDuel",
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      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
      "fangorn_support_tier": "MODERATE_SUPPORT",
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      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0655,
      "fangorn_exposure_tier": "CAUTION",
      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution",
      "fangorn_confidence_segment_label": "Steady Support + Model Lift",
      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
      "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Low Damage",
      "damage_score": 0,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3",
      "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.",
      "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION",
      "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression",
      "suppression_score": 68,
      "suppression_reason_count": 5,
      "suppression_note": "Multiple drags are weighing on the HR signal: mid-late lineup slot, thin opportunity, softened start expectation.",
      "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust",
      "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.064,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0137,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_logistic_anchor": -0.064,
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      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
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      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
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    {
      "board_type": "hr_core_board",
      "rank": 3,
      "hitter_name": "Daniel Schneemann",
      "hitter_id": 682177,
      "team_abbr": "CLE",
      "opponent_abbr": "TB",
      "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta",
      "sportsbook": "BetMGM",
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      "palantir_signal_label": "Stable Consensus",
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      "fangorn_support_warning_count": 1,
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_tier": "MODEL_LIFT",
      "fangorn_logistic_dominance_label": "Model Lift",
      "fangorn_logistic_refined_delta": -0.0655,
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      "fangorn_exposure_label": "Caution",
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      "fangorn_exposure_note": "Weakest meaningful shortlist segment in the replay.",
      "damage_tier": "LOW_DAMAGE",
      "damage_label": "Low Damage",
      "damage_score": 0,
      "damage_rank_bucket": "top_3",
      "damage_note": "Limited HR-driven damage support from current trust and rank context.",
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      "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression",
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      "trust_modifier": "DOWNGRADED_TRUST",
      "trust_label": "Downgraded Trust",
      "trust_note": "Heavy suppression is stacked strongly enough to downgrade the read.",
      "hr_edge_rf_safe_calibrated_isotonic": -0.064,
      "hr_edge_palantir": 0.0137,
      "hr_edge_logistic_classifier": null,
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      "hr_confidence_zone_tag": "Watch Zone",
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      "play_tier": "Lean",
      "lineup_slot": 6,
      "confirmed_lineup_flag": false,
      "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly"
    }
  ]
}