{ "date": "2026-05-07", "generated_at": "2026-05-13T17:23:23.017863", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-05-07", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 30, "matched_count": 18, "unmatched_count": 12 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 18, "grouped_pitcher_count": 5, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 18, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -152, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "skill_score": 44.4, "opportunity_score": 36.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 56.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.386, "model_under_probability": 0.614, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5635, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4365, "edge_over": -0.2172, "edge_under": 0.1467, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1467, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-07T22:19:52.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 109, "expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "skill_score": 44.4, "opportunity_score": 36.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 56.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.386, "model_under_probability": 0.614, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4785, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5494, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4506, "edge_over": -0.1973, "edge_under": 0.1355, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1355, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-07T22:20:25.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -144, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "skill_score": 44.4, "opportunity_score": 36.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 56.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.386, "model_under_probability": 0.614, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5511, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4489, "edge_over": -0.2042, "edge_under": 0.1332, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1332, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-07T22:20:20.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 135, "under_odds": -185, "expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "skill_score": 44.4, "opportunity_score": 36.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 56.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.258, "model_under_probability": 0.742, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4255, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6491, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.396, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.604, "edge_over": -0.1675, "edge_under": 0.0929, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0929, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-07T22:20:04.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 3.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.47, "skill_score": 9.9, "opportunity_score": 42.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4468, "model_under_probability": 0.5532, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.161, "edge_under": 0.0881, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0881, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-07T22:19:55.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -139, "under_odds": 109, "expected_strikeouts": 3.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.47, "skill_score": 9.9, "opportunity_score": 42.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4468, "model_under_probability": 0.5532, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5816, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4785, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5486, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4514, "edge_over": -0.1348, "edge_under": 0.0747, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0747, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-07T22:20:28.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -144, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 3.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.47, "skill_score": 9.9, "opportunity_score": 42.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4468, "model_under_probability": 0.5532, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5511, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4489, "edge_over": -0.1434, "edge_under": 0.0724, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0724, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Povich", "pitcher_id": 700249, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-07T22:19:52.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -139, "under_odds": 111, "expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.5, "skill_score": 26.4, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 50.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.456, "model_under_probability": 0.544, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5816, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4739, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.551, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.449, "edge_over": -0.1256, "edge_under": 0.0701, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0701, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14671.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Povich", "pitcher_id": 700249, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-07T22:20:20.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.5, "skill_score": 26.4, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 50.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.456, "model_under_probability": 0.544, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.1273, "edge_under": 0.0562, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0562, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14671.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Povich", "pitcher_id": 700249, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.5, "skill_score": 26.4, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 50.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.456, "model_under_probability": 0.544, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5379, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4621, "edge_over": -0.1203, "edge_under": 0.049, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.049, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14671.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-07T22:20:46.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 129, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 15.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 92.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4807, "model_under_probability": 0.5193, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4367, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4117, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5883, "edge_over": 0.044, "edge_under": -0.1048, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.044, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 54.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-07T22:20:25.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 15.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 92.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4807, "model_under_probability": 0.5193, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.417, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.583, "edge_over": 0.0343, "edge_under": -0.1048, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0343, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 54.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 15.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 92.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4807, "model_under_probability": 0.5193, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.417, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.583, "edge_over": 0.0343, "edge_under": -0.1048, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0343, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 54.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Povich", "pitcher_id": 700249, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-07T22:20:25.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.5, "skill_score": 26.4, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 50.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.456, "model_under_probability": 0.544, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5241, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4759, "edge_over": -0.1054, "edge_under": 0.0342, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0342, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14671.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-07T22:20:04.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 52.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 37.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4538, "model_under_probability": 0.5462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5203, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4797, "edge_over": -0.1018, "edge_under": 0.034, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.034, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-07T22:20:28.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 52.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 37.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4538, "model_under_probability": 0.5462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5142, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4858, "edge_over": -0.0957, "edge_under": 0.027, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.027, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-07T22:19:55.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 52.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 37.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4538, "model_under_probability": 0.5462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0767, "edge_under": 0.0157, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0157, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 61.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-07T22:20:45.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 15.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 92.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4807, "model_under_probability": 0.5193, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": 0.0156, "edge_under": -0.0885, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0156, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 54.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }