{ "date": "2026-05-17", "generated_at": "2026-05-17T14:46:33.576727", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-05-17", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 28, "matched_count": 21, "unmatched_count": 7 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 21, "grouped_pitcher_count": 6, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 21, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-17T18:32:49.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "skill_score": 20.0, "opportunity_score": 54.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3168, "model_under_probability": 0.6832, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.1954, "edge_under": 0.1276, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1276, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-17T18:32:26.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "skill_score": 20.0, "opportunity_score": 54.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3168, "model_under_probability": 0.6832, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4719, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5281, "edge_over": -0.1882, "edge_under": 0.118, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.118, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "skill_score": 20.0, "opportunity_score": 54.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3168, "model_under_probability": 0.6832, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4719, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5281, "edge_over": -0.1882, "edge_under": 0.118, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.118, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-17T18:32:35.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -133, "expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "skill_score": 20.0, "opportunity_score": 54.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3168, "model_under_probability": 0.6832, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5708, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.462, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.538, "edge_over": -0.1734, "edge_under": 0.1124, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1124, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.071, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-17T18:32:49.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 3.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 41.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5381, "model_under_probability": 0.4619, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": 0.073, "edge_under": -0.1459, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.073, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.958, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-17T18:32:26.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -134, "expected_strikeouts": 3.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 41.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5381, "model_under_probability": 0.4619, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.454, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.546, "edge_over": 0.0619, "edge_under": -0.1107, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0619, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.958, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -134, "expected_strikeouts": 3.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 41.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5381, "model_under_probability": 0.4619, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.454, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.546, "edge_over": 0.0619, "edge_under": -0.1107, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0619, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.958, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-17T18:32:35.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "skill_score": 27.6, "opportunity_score": 37.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4676, "model_under_probability": 0.5324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.1324, "edge_under": 0.0562, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0562, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.968, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-17T18:32:43.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -141, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "skill_score": 27.6, "opportunity_score": 37.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4676, "model_under_probability": 0.5324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5851, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5513, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4487, "edge_over": -0.1175, "edge_under": 0.0562, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0562, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.968, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-17T18:32:19.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -134, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "skill_score": 27.6, "opportunity_score": 37.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4676, "model_under_probability": 0.5324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5726, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.546, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.454, "edge_over": -0.105, "edge_under": 0.0562, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0562, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.968, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -134, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "skill_score": 27.6, "opportunity_score": 37.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4676, "model_under_probability": 0.5324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5726, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.546, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.454, "edge_over": -0.105, "edge_under": 0.0562, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0562, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.968, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-17T18:32:35.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 107, "under_odds": -137, "expected_strikeouts": 3.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "skill_score": 11.1, "opportunity_score": 41.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5381, "model_under_probability": 0.4619, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4831, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5781, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4552, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5448, "edge_over": 0.055, "edge_under": -0.1162, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.055, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.958, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "pitcher_id": 605288, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-17T18:32:43.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 101, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "skill_score": 3.9, "opportunity_score": 36.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5184, "model_under_probability": 0.4816, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4975, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4698, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5302, "edge_over": 0.0209, "edge_under": -0.0798, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0209, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.114, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "pitcher_id": 605288, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-17T18:32:35.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "skill_score": 3.9, "opportunity_score": 36.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5184, "model_under_probability": 0.4816, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": 0.0062, "edge_under": -0.074, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0062, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.114, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Lucas Giolito", "pitcher_id": 608337, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 10.0, "opportunity_score": 62.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4274, "model_under_probability": 0.5726, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4677, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5323, "edge_over": -0.0726, "edge_under": 0.0036, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0036, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.108, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 49.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-17T18:31:55.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "skill_score": 19.0, "opportunity_score": 66.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4743, "model_under_probability": 0.5257, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.0019, "edge_under": -0.0743, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0019, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 49.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "pitcher_id": 605288, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-17T18:32:19.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -114, "under_odds": -114, "expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "skill_score": 3.9, "opportunity_score": 36.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5184, "model_under_probability": 0.4816, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0143, "edge_under": -0.0511, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0143, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.114, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "pitcher_id": 605288, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -114, "under_odds": -114, "expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "skill_score": 3.9, "opportunity_score": 36.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5184, "model_under_probability": 0.4816, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0143, "edge_under": -0.0511, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0143, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.114, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.0, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-17T18:32:49.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "skill_score": 19.0, "opportunity_score": 66.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4743, "model_under_probability": 0.5257, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": -0.0207, "edge_under": -0.0395, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0207, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 49.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-17T18:32:27.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "skill_score": 19.0, "opportunity_score": 66.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4743, "model_under_probability": 0.5257, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4764, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5236, "edge_over": -0.0257, "edge_under": -0.0238, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0238, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 49.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "skill_score": 19.0, "opportunity_score": 66.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4743, "model_under_probability": 0.5257, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4764, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5236, "edge_over": -0.0257, "edge_under": -0.0238, 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