{ "date": "2026-05-24", "generated_at": "2026-05-24T10:56:09.056485", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-05-24", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 104, "matched_count": 74, "unmatched_count": 30 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 74, "grouped_pitcher_count": 19, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 74, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T04:04:52.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.76, "skill_score": 22.2, "opportunity_score": 31.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 65.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3283, "model_under_probability": 0.6717, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5712, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4288, "edge_over": -0.2717, "edge_under": 0.2212, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2212, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.09, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:12.735Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 3.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.76, "skill_score": 22.2, "opportunity_score": 31.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 65.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3283, "model_under_probability": 0.6717, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": -0.2685, "edge_under": 0.2087, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2087, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.09, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:20.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -152, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 6.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.89, "skill_score": 76.8, "opportunity_score": 64.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.386, "model_under_probability": 0.614, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5747, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4253, "edge_over": -0.2172, "edge_under": 0.1676, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1676, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 54.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 6.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.89, "skill_score": 76.8, "opportunity_score": 64.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.386, "model_under_probability": 0.614, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5677, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4323, "edge_over": -0.2108, "edge_under": 0.1595, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1595, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 54.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "skill_score": 36.4, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3998, "model_under_probability": 0.6002, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5781, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4219, "edge_over": -0.2065, "edge_under": 0.1577, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1577, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:35.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "skill_score": 36.4, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3998, "model_under_probability": 0.6002, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5781, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4219, "edge_over": -0.2065, "edge_under": 0.1577, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1577, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:39.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 113, "under_odds": -144, "expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.19, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 55.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2588, "model_under_probability": 0.7412, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4695, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.443, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.557, "edge_over": -0.2107, "edge_under": 0.151, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.151, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.074, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.0, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 56.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:01.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "skill_score": 36.4, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2701, "model_under_probability": 0.7299, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.2177, "edge_under": 0.1466, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1466, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:25.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -153, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "skill_score": 36.4, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3998, "model_under_probability": 0.6002, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6047, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5709, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4291, "edge_over": -0.2049, "edge_under": 0.1457, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1457, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:50:56.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.19, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 55.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2588, "model_under_probability": 0.7412, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.2174, "edge_under": 0.1412, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1412, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.074, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.0, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 56.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.19, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 55.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2588, "model_under_probability": 0.7412, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.433, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.567, "edge_over": -0.2042, "edge_under": 0.1349, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1349, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.074, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.0, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 56.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:45.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.19, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 55.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2588, "model_under_probability": 0.7412, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.433, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.567, "edge_over": -0.2042, "edge_under": 0.1349, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1349, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.074, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.0, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 56.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:27.000Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -145, "expected_strikeouts": 6.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.89, "skill_score": 76.8, "opportunity_score": 64.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2785, "model_under_probability": 0.7215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4412, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5588, "edge_over": -0.1888, "edge_under": 0.1297, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1297, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 54.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:50:56.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 54.6, "opportunity_score": 55.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3599, "model_under_probability": 0.6401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5203, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4797, "edge_over": -0.1957, "edge_under": 0.1279, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1279, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.923, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 56.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:48.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 6.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.89, "skill_score": 76.8, "opportunity_score": 64.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.386, "model_under_probability": 0.614, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.1973, "edge_under": 0.1262, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1262, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.9, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 54.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:39.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 54.6, "opportunity_score": 55.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3599, "model_under_probability": 0.6401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5104, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4896, "edge_over": -0.1814, "edge_under": 0.1209, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1209, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.923, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 56.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 54.6, "opportunity_score": 55.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3599, "model_under_probability": 0.6401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4957, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5043, "edge_over": -0.1593, "edge_under": 0.1118, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1118, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.923, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 56.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:45.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.85, "skill_score": 54.6, "opportunity_score": 55.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3599, "model_under_probability": 0.6401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4957, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5043, "edge_over": -0.1593, "edge_under": 0.1118, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1118, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.923, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 56.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:02.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 44.6, "opportunity_score": 72.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3331, "model_under_probability": 0.6669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.1791, "edge_under": 0.1113, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1113, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 44.6, "opportunity_score": 72.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3331, "model_under_probability": 0.6669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4759, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5241, "edge_over": -0.1767, "edge_under": 0.1055, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1055, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:51.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 44.6, "opportunity_score": 72.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3331, "model_under_probability": 0.6669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4759, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5241, "edge_over": -0.1767, "edge_under": 0.1055, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1055, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:48.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 101, "under_odds": -129, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 44.6, "opportunity_score": 72.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3331, "model_under_probability": 0.6669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4975, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5633, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.469, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.531, "edge_over": -0.1644, "edge_under": 0.1036, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1036, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 18.5, "opportunity_score": 57.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4538, "model_under_probability": 0.5462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5677, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4323, "edge_over": -0.143, "edge_under": 0.0917, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0917, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 56.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:27.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 18.5, "opportunity_score": 57.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4538, "model_under_probability": 0.5462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5677, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4323, "edge_over": -0.143, "edge_under": 0.0917, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0917, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 56.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:04.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 4.5, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3406, "model_under_probability": 0.6594, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.1594, "edge_under": 0.0849, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0849, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "pitcher_id": 669194, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 28.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 69.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4824, "model_under_probability": 0.5176, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.586, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.414, "edge_over": -0.133, "edge_under": 0.0828, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0828, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "pitcher_id": 669194, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:32.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 28.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 69.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4824, "model_under_probability": 0.5176, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.586, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.414, "edge_over": -0.133, "edge_under": 0.0828, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0828, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "skill_score": 52.0, "opportunity_score": 59.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 35.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4728, "model_under_probability": 0.5272, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5698, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4302, "edge_over": -0.124, "edge_under": 0.0767, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0767, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.31, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:45.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "skill_score": 52.0, "opportunity_score": 59.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 35.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4728, "model_under_probability": 0.5272, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5698, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4302, "edge_over": -0.124, "edge_under": 0.0767, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0767, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.31, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "pitcher_id": 669194, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:50.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 28.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 69.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4824, "model_under_probability": 0.5176, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5807, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4193, "edge_over": -0.133, "edge_under": 0.0732, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0732, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -144, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 4.5, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3406, "model_under_probability": 0.6594, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4373, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5627, "edge_over": -0.1181, "edge_under": 0.0692, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0692, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:35.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -144, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 4.5, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 58.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3406, "model_under_probability": 0.6594, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4373, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5627, "edge_over": -0.1181, "edge_under": 0.0692, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0692, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:31.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 18.5, "opportunity_score": 57.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3193, "model_under_probability": 0.6807, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5784, "edge_over": -0.1271, "edge_under": 0.0683, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0683, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 56.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "pitcher_id": 669194, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:07.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 28.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 69.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4824, "model_under_probability": 0.5176, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.133, "edge_under": 0.0631, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0631, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:20.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 4.5, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak 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"recommended_edge": 0.0626, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 58.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:23.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "skill_score": 52.0, "opportunity_score": 59.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 35.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3373, "model_under_probability": 0.6627, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4216, 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"adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "skill_score": 52.0, "opportunity_score": 59.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 35.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3373, "model_under_probability": 0.6627, "model_push_probability": 0.0, 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130, "under_odds": -175, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 18.5, "opportunity_score": 57.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3193, "model_under_probability": 0.6807, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6364, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4059, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5941, "edge_over": -0.1155, "edge_under": 0.0443, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0443, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 56.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:15.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -165, "under_odds": 125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 51.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5175, "model_under_probability": 0.4825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5835, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4165, "edge_over": -0.1051, "edge_under": 0.0381, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0381, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:23.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -153, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 51.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3646, "model_under_probability": 0.6354, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6047, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4314, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5686, "edge_over": -0.0941, "edge_under": 0.0307, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0307, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jose Quintana", "pitcher_id": 500779, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:50.000Z", 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0.539, "model_under_probability": 0.461, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5169, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5434, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4875, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5125, "edge_over": 0.0221, "edge_under": -0.0824, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0221, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.096, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25833.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, 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"model_under_probability": 0.6354, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": -0.0899, "edge_under": 0.02, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.02, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:51.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 51.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3646, "model_under_probability": 0.6354, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": -0.0899, "edge_under": 0.02, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.02, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jose Quintana", "pitcher_id": 500779, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:07.000Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 2.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.91, "skill_score": 9.0, "opportunity_score": 44.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", 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"fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", 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"opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:49.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.458, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.542, "edge_over": 0.0113, "edge_under": -0.0611, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0113, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:21.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 107, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4831, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.544, "edge_over": 0.009, "edge_under": -0.0684, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.009, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:19.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -149, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 6.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.01, "skill_score": 21.8, "opportunity_score": 32.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 81.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5307, "model_under_probability": 0.4693, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5984, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5638, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4362, "edge_over": -0.0677, "edge_under": 0.0063, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0063, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:20.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -143, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 24.7, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", 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not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 18.6, "opportunity_score": 24.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 82.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4405, "model_under_probability": 0.5595, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4661, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5339, "edge_over": -0.0497, "edge_under": -0.0019, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0019, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.7, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.138, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 50.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:38.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 18.6, "opportunity_score": 24.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 82.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4405, "model_under_probability": 0.5595, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4661, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5339, "edge_over": -0.0497, "edge_under": -0.0019, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0019, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.7, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.138, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 50.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jose Quintana", "pitcher_id": 500779, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 2.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.91, "skill_score": 9.0, "opportunity_score": 44.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.539, "model_under_probability": 0.461, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5061, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4939, "edge_over": -0.0023, "edge_under": -0.0673, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0023, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.096, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25833.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jose Quintana", "pitcher_id": 500779, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:32.000Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 2.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.91, "skill_score": 9.0, "opportunity_score": 44.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.539, "model_under_probability": 0.461, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5061, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4939, "edge_over": -0.0023, "edge_under": -0.0673, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0023, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.096, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25833.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:38.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 101, "under_odds": -129, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 18.6, "opportunity_score": 24.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 82.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4405, "model_under_probability": 0.5595, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4975, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5633, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.469, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.531, "edge_over": -0.057, "edge_under": -0.0038, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0038, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.7, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.138, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 50.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:23.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 69.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 21.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5661, "model_under_probability": 0.4339, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5737, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4263, "edge_over": -0.0402, "edge_under": -0.0166, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0166, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 69.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 21.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5661, "model_under_probability": 0.4339, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5712, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4288, "edge_over": -0.0339, "edge_under": -0.0166, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0166, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:51.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 69.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 21.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5661, "model_under_probability": 0.4339, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5712, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4288, "edge_over": -0.0339, "edge_under": -0.0166, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0166, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 6.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.01, "skill_score": 21.8, "opportunity_score": 32.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 81.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3937, "model_under_probability": 0.6063, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.417, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.583, "edge_over": -0.0527, "edge_under": -0.0178, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0178, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:35.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 6.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.01, "skill_score": 21.8, "opportunity_score": 32.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 81.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3937, "model_under_probability": 0.6063, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.417, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.583, "edge_over": -0.0527, "edge_under": -0.0178, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0178, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:37.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.0201, "edge_under": -0.0477, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0201, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:27.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -167, "under_odds": 131, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 22.9, "opportunity_score": 52.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5874, "model_under_probability": 0.4126, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6255, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4329, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.591, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.409, "edge_over": -0.0381, "edge_under": -0.0203, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0203, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.0, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 54.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -174, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 22.9, "opportunity_score": 52.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4137, "model_under_probability": 0.5863, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.635, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4064, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5936, "edge_over": -0.0211, "edge_under": -0.0487, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0211, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.0, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 54.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:20.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -174, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 22.9, "opportunity_score": 52.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4137, "model_under_probability": 0.5863, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.635, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4064, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5936, "edge_over": -0.0211, "edge_under": -0.0487, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0211, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.0, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 54.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:08.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 18.6, "opportunity_score": 24.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 51.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 82.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4405, "model_under_probability": 0.5595, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.0473, "edge_under": -0.0238, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0238, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.7, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.138, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 50.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:08.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "skill_score": 13.0, "opportunity_score": 58.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4493, "model_under_probability": 0.5507, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.0269, "edge_under": -0.0493, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0269, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 50.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "skill_score": 13.0, "opportunity_score": 58.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4493, "model_under_probability": 0.5507, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4452, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5548, "edge_over": -0.0269, "edge_under": -0.0428, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0269, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 50.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:38.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "skill_score": 13.0, "opportunity_score": 58.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4493, "model_under_probability": 0.5507, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4452, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5548, "edge_over": -0.0269, "edge_under": -0.0428, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0269, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 50.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:38.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "skill_score": 13.0, "opportunity_score": 58.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4493, "model_under_probability": 0.5507, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5467, "edge_over": -0.0315, "edge_under": -0.0291, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0291, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 50.9, "wind_speed_mph": 10.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:48.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 125, "under_odds": -165, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 22.9, "opportunity_score": 52.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4137, "model_under_probability": 0.5863, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4165, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5835, "edge_over": -0.0307, "edge_under": -0.0363, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0307, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.0, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 54.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-05-24T14:51:15.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 17.1, "opportunity_score": 69.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 21.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5661, "model_under_probability": 0.4339, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.0339, "edge_under": -0.0423, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0339, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, 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