{ "date": "2026-06-02", "generated_at": "2026-06-01T23:33:23.943749", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-06-02", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 63, "matched_count": 48, "unmatched_count": 15 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 48, "grouped_pitcher_count": 8, "sportsbook_count": 1 }, "edge_count": 48, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "pitcher_id": 693821, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 25.9, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2421, "model_under_probability": 0.7579, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1088, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1088, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.935, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "pitcher_id": 693821, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 25.9, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3676, "model_under_probability": 0.6324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1044, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1044, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.935, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -142, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 59.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4342, "model_under_probability": 0.5658, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.559, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.441, "edge_over": -0.1526, "edge_under": 0.1028, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1028, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.46, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4523, "model_under_probability": 0.5477, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5712, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4288, "edge_over": -0.1477, "edge_under": 0.0972, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0972, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 650, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "skill_score": 37.9, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2037, "model_under_probability": 0.7963, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0704, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0704, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "pitcher_id": 693821, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 122, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 25.9, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5207, "model_under_probability": 0.4793, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4288, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5712, "edge_over": 0.0702, "edge_under": -0.1207, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0702, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.935, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 790, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 28.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1758, "model_under_probability": 0.8242, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1124, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0634, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0634, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "skill_score": 37.9, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3097, "model_under_probability": 0.6903, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0597, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0597, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 28.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2755, "model_under_probability": 0.7245, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0581, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0581, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "pitcher_id": 656427, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "skill_score": 36.1, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 71.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2048, "model_under_probability": 0.7952, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0435, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0435, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 172, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 28.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4059, "model_under_probability": 0.5941, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3676, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0383, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0383, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "skill_score": 40.0, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3773, "model_under_probability": 0.6227, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 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"Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1001, "model_under_probability": 0.8999, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1163, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0162, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0162, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "pitcher_id": 656427, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "skill_score": 36.1, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 71.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4449, "model_under_probability": 0.5551, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.441, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.559, "edge_over": -0.0181, "edge_under": -0.0317, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0181, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -162, "under_odds": 132, "expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "skill_score": 37.9, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5948, "model_under_probability": 0.4052, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5892, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4108, "edge_over": -0.0235, "edge_under": -0.0258, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0235, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "pitcher_id": 693821, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -590, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 25.9, "opportunity_score": 48.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8302, "model_under_probability": 0.1698, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8551, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0249, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0249, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.935, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 28.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7157, "model_under_probability": 0.2843, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.75, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0343, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0343, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -800, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 28.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8512, "model_under_probability": 0.1488, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8889, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0377, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0377, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.46, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2105, "model_under_probability": 0.7895, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0395, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0395, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -385, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "skill_score": 37.9, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7448, "model_under_probability": 0.2552, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7938, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.049, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.049, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 220, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "skill_score": 40.0, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2615, "model_under_probability": 0.7385, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.051, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.051, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 340, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 59.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1749, "model_under_probability": 0.8251, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2273, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0524, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0524, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1250, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "skill_score": 37.9, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.2, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8697, "model_under_probability": 0.1303, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9259, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0562, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0562, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "pitcher_id": 656427, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -188, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "skill_score": 36.1, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 71.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5962, "model_under_probability": 0.4038, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6528, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0566, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0566, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "pitcher_id": 656427, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "skill_score": 36.1, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 71.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8704, "model_under_probability": 0.1296, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9524, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.082, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.082, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "skill_score": 29.6, "opportunity_score": 60.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8804, "model_under_probability": 0.1196, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9677, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0873, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0873, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Flaherty", "pitcher_id": 656427, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.41, "skill_score": 36.1, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 71.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7459, "model_under_probability": 0.2541, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0874, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0874, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32117.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 140, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.46, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3179, "model_under_probability": 0.6821, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0988, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0988, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -4500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.46, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8738, "model_under_probability": 0.1262, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9783, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1045, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1045, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -260, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "skill_score": 29.6, "opportunity_score": 60.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6168, "model_under_probability": 0.3832, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1054, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1054, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 154, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 59.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2861, "model_under_probability": 0.7139, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3937, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1076, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1076, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.56, "skill_score": 29.6, "opportunity_score": 60.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.762, "model_under_probability": 0.238, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8824, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1204, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1204, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "skill_score": 40.0, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7943, "model_under_probability": 0.2057, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.139, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.139, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 59.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7759, "model_under_probability": 0.2241, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9231, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1472, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1472, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.46, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7513, "model_under_probability": 0.2487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1578, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1578, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -205, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "skill_score": 40.0, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5141, "model_under_probability": 0.4859, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6721, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.158, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.158, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.89, "skill_score": 40.0, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6594, "model_under_probability": 0.3406, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8182, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1588, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1588, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.985, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 65.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -340, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.46, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6032, "model_under_probability": 0.3968, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7727, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1695, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1695, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.37, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 59.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6067, "model_under_probability": 0.3933, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7778, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1711, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1711, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Vasquez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Vasquez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Vasquez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Vasquez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Steven Matz", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Steven Matz", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Steven Matz", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Steven Matz", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Steven Matz", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }