{ "date": "2026-06-05", "generated_at": "2026-06-05T08:04:27.309745", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-06-05", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 157, "matched_count": 105, "unmatched_count": 52 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 105, "grouped_pitcher_count": 18, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 105, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:22.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 38.6, "opportunity_score": 59.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2554, "model_under_probability": 0.7446, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.2684, "edge_under": 0.1991, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1991, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:35.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 38.6, "opportunity_score": 59.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2554, "model_under_probability": 0.7446, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4711, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5289, "edge_over": -0.2446, "edge_under": 0.1832, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1832, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 38.6, "opportunity_score": 59.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2554, "model_under_probability": 0.7446, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5467, "edge_over": -0.2254, "edge_under": 0.1648, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1648, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:58:07.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 38.6, "opportunity_score": 59.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2554, "model_under_probability": 0.7446, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4486, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5514, "edge_over": -0.2163, "edge_under": 0.1648, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1648, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 527048, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:48.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.74, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 48.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3247, "model_under_probability": 0.6753, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4764, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5236, "edge_over": -0.1753, "edge_under": 0.1258, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1258, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.074, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 527048, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:43.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.74, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 48.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3247, "model_under_probability": 0.6753, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.1875, "edge_under": 0.1197, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1197, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.074, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 527048, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:23.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 3.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.74, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 48.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3247, "model_under_probability": 0.6753, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4761, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5239, "edge_over": -0.1803, "edge_under": 0.1197, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1197, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.074, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:52.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 131, "under_odds": -168, "expected_strikeouts": 3.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2671, "model_under_probability": 0.7329, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4329, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6269, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4085, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5915, "edge_over": -0.1658, "edge_under": 0.106, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.106, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -168, "expected_strikeouts": 3.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2671, "model_under_probability": 0.7329, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6269, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4138, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5862, "edge_over": -0.1754, "edge_under": 0.106, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.106, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:58:08.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -168, "expected_strikeouts": 3.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2671, "model_under_probability": 0.7329, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6269, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4138, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5862, "edge_over": -0.1754, "edge_under": 0.106, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.106, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3913, "model_under_probability": 0.6087, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5281, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4719, "edge_over": -0.1739, "edge_under": 0.1037, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1037, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:57.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3913, "model_under_probability": 0.6087, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5281, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4719, "edge_over": -0.1739, "edge_under": 0.1037, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1037, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 58.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4089, "model_under_probability": 0.5911, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5419, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4581, "edge_over": -0.1709, "edge_under": 0.1009, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1009, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:58:12.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 58.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4089, "model_under_probability": 0.5911, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5419, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4581, "edge_over": -0.1709, "edge_under": 0.1009, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1009, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:17.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 3.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.435, "model_under_probability": 0.565, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.1728, "edge_under": 0.0999, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0999, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:58:04.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 103, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 58.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4089, "model_under_probability": 0.5911, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4926, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.536, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.464, "edge_over": -0.1601, "edge_under": 0.0985, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0985, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:58:00.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3913, "model_under_probability": 0.6087, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5246, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4754, "edge_over": -0.1739, "edge_under": 0.0965, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0965, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:28.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -119, "under_odds": -107, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3913, "model_under_probability": 0.6087, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5434, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5169, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5125, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4875, "edge_over": -0.1521, "edge_under": 0.0918, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0918, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:22.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 21.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 90.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3615, "model_under_probability": 0.6385, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.1507, "edge_under": 0.0829, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0829, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.13, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 21.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 90.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3615, "model_under_probability": 0.6385, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5192, "edge_over": -0.1531, "edge_under": 0.0829, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0829, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.13, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:58:07.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 21.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 90.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3615, "model_under_probability": 0.6385, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5192, "edge_over": -0.1531, "edge_under": 0.0829, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0829, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.13, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:35.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -101, "under_odds": -126, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 21.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 90.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3615, "model_under_probability": 0.6385, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5025, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5575, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4741, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5259, "edge_over": -0.141, "edge_under": 0.081, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.081, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.13, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2198, "model_under_probability": 0.7802, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0727, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0727, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 290, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.329, "model_under_probability": 0.671, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2564, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0726, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0726, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:23.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 6.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.21, "skill_score": 62.5, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.421, "model_under_probability": 0.579, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5203, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4797, "edge_over": -0.1346, "edge_under": 0.0668, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0668, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.984, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "pitcher_id": 665795, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.89, "skill_score": 34.2, "opportunity_score": 51.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2407, "model_under_probability": 0.7593, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0589, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0589, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23128.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:34.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 58.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4089, "model_under_probability": 0.5911, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.126, "edge_under": 0.0562, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0562, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "pitcher_id": 665795, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 220, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.89, "skill_score": 34.2, "opportunity_score": 51.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3661, "model_under_probability": 0.6339, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0536, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0536, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23128.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:58:16.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.436, "model_under_probability": 0.564, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5203, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4797, "edge_over": -0.1196, "edge_under": 0.0518, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0518, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 62.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4291, "model_under_probability": 0.5709, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5142, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4858, "edge_over": -0.1204, "edge_under": 0.0517, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0517, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:48.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 62.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4291, "model_under_probability": 0.5709, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5142, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4858, "edge_over": -0.1204, "edge_under": 0.0517, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0517, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 142, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4641, "model_under_probability": 0.5359, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4132, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0509, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0509, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:47.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -112, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 6.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.21, "skill_score": 62.5, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.421, "model_under_probability": 0.579, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.499, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.501, "edge_over": -0.1073, "edge_under": 0.0485, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0485, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.984, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:27.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -119, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.436, "model_under_probability": 0.564, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5434, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5114, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4886, "edge_over": -0.1074, "edge_under": 0.0448, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0448, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "pitcher_id": 663372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:33.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -131, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 14.9, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5398, "model_under_probability": 0.4602, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5671, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4661, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5339, "edge_over": 0.0448, "edge_under": -0.1069, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0448, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.044, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:57.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.71, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "skill_score": 18.8, "opportunity_score": 78.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 11.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4905, "model_under_probability": 0.5095, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5588, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4412, "edge_over": -0.1013, "edge_under": 0.0422, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0422, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:58:02.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.71, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "skill_score": 18.8, "opportunity_score": 78.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 11.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4905, "model_under_probability": 0.5095, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5552, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4448, "edge_over": -0.0928, "edge_under": 0.0422, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0422, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:22.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3753, "model_under_probability": 0.6247, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.1125, "edge_under": 0.0414, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0414, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:34.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6141, "model_under_probability": 0.3859, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": 0.0396, "edge_under": -0.1141, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0396, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1737, "model_under_probability": 0.8263, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0386, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0386, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "pitcher_id": 665795, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.89, "skill_score": 34.2, "opportunity_score": 51.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5191, "model_under_probability": 0.4809, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.458, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.542, "edge_over": 0.0383, "edge_under": -0.0881, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0383, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23128.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2728, "model_under_probability": 0.7272, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0347, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0347, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:58:02.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -144, "expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3753, "model_under_probability": 0.6247, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4373, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5627, "edge_over": -0.0834, "edge_under": 0.0345, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0345, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:58:04.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", 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"2026-06-05T11:58:19.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.436, "model_under_probability": 0.564, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4764, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5236, "edge_over": -0.064, "edge_under": 0.0145, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0145, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 62.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:58:04.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -151, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6141, "model_under_probability": 0.3859, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6016, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5674, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4326, "edge_over": 0.0125, "edge_under": -0.0728, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0125, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:51.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -152, "expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.51, "skill_score": 18.4, "opportunity_score": 69.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4577, "model_under_probability": 0.5423, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4253, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5747, "edge_over": 0.0113, "edge_under": -0.0609, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0113, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zebby Matthews", "pitcher_id": 805673, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:57.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 125, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3753, "model_under_probability": 0.6247, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4193, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5807, "edge_over": -0.0691, "edge_under": 0.0093, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0093, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9633.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:29.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -165, "under_odds": 125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.51, "skill_score": 18.4, "opportunity_score": 69.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6283, "model_under_probability": 0.3717, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5835, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4165, "edge_over": 0.0057, "edge_under": -0.0727, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0057, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:58:09.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6082, "model_under_probability": 0.3918, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5781, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4219, "edge_over": 0.0019, "edge_under": -0.0507, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0019, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.123, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:58:15.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -159, "under_odds": 125, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5558, "model_under_probability": 0.4442, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6139, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5801, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4199, "edge_over": -0.0581, "edge_under": -0.0002, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0002, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:38.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.51, "skill_score": 18.4, "opportunity_score": 69.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4577, "model_under_probability": 0.5423, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": -0.001, "edge_under": -0.0577, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.001, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:22.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.71, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "skill_score": 18.8, "opportunity_score": 78.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 11.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4905, "model_under_probability": 0.5095, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5203, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4797, "edge_over": -0.0651, "edge_under": -0.0027, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0027, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:21.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -157, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6082, "model_under_probability": 0.3918, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6109, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5756, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4244, "edge_over": -0.0027, "edge_under": -0.0587, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0027, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.123, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "pitcher_id": 663372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:58:16.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 3.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.97, "skill_score": 14.9, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5398, "model_under_probability": 0.4602, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5203, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4797, "edge_over": -0.0158, "edge_under": -0.052, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0158, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.044, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 62.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0975, "model_under_probability": 0.9025, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0201, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0201, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5558, "model_under_probability": 0.4442, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5419, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4581, "edge_over": -0.024, "edge_under": -0.046, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.024, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:58:10.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5558, "model_under_probability": 0.4442, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5419, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4581, "edge_over": -0.024, "edge_under": -0.046, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.024, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:53.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 2.9, "opportunity_score": 27.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 83.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5874, "model_under_probability": 0.4126, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.028, "edge_under": -0.0419, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.028, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 58.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1077, "model_under_probability": 0.8923, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0293, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0293, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 21.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 90.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.0844, "model_under_probability": 0.9156, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0332, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0332, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.13, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-05T11:57:23.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5558, "model_under_probability": 0.4442, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5482, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4518, "edge_over": -0.036, "edge_under": -0.0436, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.036, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "pitcher_id": 665795, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -260, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.89, "skill_score": 34.2, "opportunity_score": 51.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6824, "model_under_probability": 0.3176, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0398, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0398, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23128.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7599, "model_under_probability": 0.2401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0401, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0401, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 62.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1714, "model_under_probability": 0.8286, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0414, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0414, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0801, "model_under_probability": 0.9199, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0449, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0449, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8791, "model_under_probability": 0.1209, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9355, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0564, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0564, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -340, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7132, "model_under_probability": 0.2868, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7727, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0595, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0595, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "pitcher_id": 665795, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -800, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.89, "skill_score": 34.2, "opportunity_score": 51.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 48.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8293, "model_under_probability": 0.1707, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8889, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0596, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0596, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23128.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0765, "model_under_probability": 0.9235, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0605, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0605, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 310, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 58.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.178, "model_under_probability": 0.822, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2439, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0659, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0659, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 21.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 90.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1455, "model_under_probability": 0.8545, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0673, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0673, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.13, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 182, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 62.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2815, "model_under_probability": 0.7185, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3546, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0731, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0731, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8496, "model_under_probability": 0.1504, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9231, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0735, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0735, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.997, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 10.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1459, "model_under_probability": 0.8541, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0763, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0763, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1491, "model_under_probability": 0.8509, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1141, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1141, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 154, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 58.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2783, "model_under_probability": 0.7217, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3937, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1154, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1154, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 182, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 21.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 90.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2368, "model_under_probability": 0.7632, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3546, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1178, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1178, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.13, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 38.6, "opportunity_score": 59.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0946, "model_under_probability": 0.9054, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1182, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1182, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 172, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2483, "model_under_probability": 0.7517, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3676, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1193, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1193, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -4000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 58.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8528, "model_under_probability": 0.1472, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9756, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1228, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1228, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1100, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 62.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7724, "model_under_probability": 0.2276, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1443, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1443, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 21.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 90.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8265, "model_under_probability": 0.1735, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9722, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1457, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1457, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.13, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 21.5, "opportunity_score": 62.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6019, "model_under_probability": 0.3981, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.75, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1481, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1481, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.44, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.112, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -850, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 58.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7181, "model_under_probability": 0.2819, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8947, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1766, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1766, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 194, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 38.6, "opportunity_score": 59.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1599, "model_under_probability": 0.8401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3401, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1802, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1802, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7451, "model_under_probability": 0.2549, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1882, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1882, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -310, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.17, "skill_score": 30.6, "opportunity_score": 58.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5617, "model_under_probability": 0.4383, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7561, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1944, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1944, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.46, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -700, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 21.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 90.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6784, "model_under_probability": 0.3216, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.875, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1966, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1966, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.13, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -270, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 21.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 90.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5144, "model_under_probability": 0.4856, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7297, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2153, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2153, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.13, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.68, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6363, "model_under_probability": 0.3637, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2166, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2166, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -360, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5657, "model_under_probability": 0.4343, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7826, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2169, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2169, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -205, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.41, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.435, "model_under_probability": 0.565, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6721, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2371, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2371, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 38.6, "opportunity_score": 59.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6969, "model_under_probability": 0.3031, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9524, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2555, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2555, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 38.6, "opportunity_score": 59.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.383, "model_under_probability": 0.617, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.3093, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.3093, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -550, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 38.6, "opportunity_score": 59.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5361, "model_under_probability": 0.4639, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8462, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.3101, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.3101, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.69, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props 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"team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Leahy", "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }