{ "date": "2026-06-09", "generated_at": "2026-06-09T08:03:48.454071", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-06-09", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 192, "matched_count": 152, "unmatched_count": 40 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 152, "grouped_pitcher_count": 21, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 152, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:41.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 62.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2454, "model_under_probability": 0.7546, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.2424, "edge_under": 0.1713, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1713, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:18.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -159, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 62.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3878, "model_under_probability": 0.6122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6139, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.579, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.421, "edge_over": -0.2261, "edge_under": 0.1658, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1658, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -166, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 62.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3878, "model_under_probability": 0.6122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.583, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.417, "edge_over": -0.2363, "edge_under": 0.1658, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1658, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:57:01.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -166, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 62.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3878, "model_under_probability": 0.6122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.583, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.417, "edge_over": -0.2363, "edge_under": 0.1658, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1658, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3306, "model_under_probability": 0.6694, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1932, "edge_under": 0.1456, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1456, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:57:02.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3306, "model_under_probability": 0.6694, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1932, "edge_under": 0.1456, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1456, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:57:01.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3841, "model_under_probability": 0.6159, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.2159, "edge_under": 0.1397, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1397, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:48.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -118, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3306, "model_under_probability": 0.6694, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4918, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5082, "edge_over": -0.1932, "edge_under": 0.1281, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1281, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:24.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3306, "model_under_probability": 0.6694, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5146, "edge_over": -0.184, "edge_under": 0.1239, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1239, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:10.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4134, "model_under_probability": 0.5866, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5606, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4394, "edge_over": -0.1801, "edge_under": 0.1215, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1215, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:35.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4134, "model_under_probability": 0.5866, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.1866, "edge_under": 0.1104, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1104, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.65, "skill_score": 30.5, "opportunity_score": 71.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3559, "model_under_probability": 0.6441, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1059, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1059, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.65, "skill_score": 30.5, "opportunity_score": 71.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2517, "model_under_probability": 0.7483, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1046, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1046, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4134, "model_under_probability": 0.5866, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5379, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4621, "edge_over": -0.1629, "edge_under": 0.0916, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0916, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:44.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4134, "model_under_probability": 0.5866, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5379, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4621, "edge_over": -0.1629, "edge_under": 0.0916, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0916, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 154, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.65, "skill_score": 30.5, "opportunity_score": 71.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4794, "model_under_probability": 0.5206, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3937, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0857, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0857, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:55:23.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -112, "under_odds": -114, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3841, "model_under_probability": 0.6159, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4979, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5021, "edge_over": -0.1442, "edge_under": 0.0832, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0832, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -114, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3841, "model_under_probability": 0.6159, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4958, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5042, "edge_over": -0.1397, "edge_under": 0.0832, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0832, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:59.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -114, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3841, "model_under_probability": 0.6159, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4914, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5086, "edge_over": -0.1305, "edge_under": 0.0832, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0832, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:30.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 125, "under_odds": -165, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 37.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5097, "model_under_probability": 0.4903, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4165, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5835, "edge_over": 0.0653, "edge_under": -0.1323, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0653, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.39, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.1, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1931, "model_under_probability": 0.8069, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0561, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0561, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 310, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.1, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2873, "model_under_probability": 0.7127, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2439, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0434, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0434, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "pitcher_id": 607067, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:51.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "skill_score": 12.5, "opportunity_score": 55.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6082, "model_under_probability": 0.3918, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.538, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.462, "edge_over": 0.043, "edge_under": -0.0936, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.043, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.122, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "pitcher_id": 607067, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:21.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -131, "under_odds": 103, "expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "skill_score": 12.5, "opportunity_score": 55.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6082, "model_under_probability": 0.3918, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5671, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4926, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5352, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4648, "edge_over": 0.0411, "edge_under": -0.1008, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0411, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.48, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.122, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:50.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 6.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.65, "skill_score": 30.5, "opportunity_score": 71.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6132, "model_under_probability": 0.3868, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": 0.0387, "edge_under": -0.1132, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0387, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:57:19.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 37.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5097, "model_under_probability": 0.4903, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4486, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5514, "edge_over": 0.038, "edge_under": -0.0895, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.038, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.39, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:48.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 6.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.65, "skill_score": 30.5, "opportunity_score": 71.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6132, "model_under_probability": 0.3868, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5467, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4533, "edge_over": 0.0334, "edge_under": -0.094, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0334, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:21.000Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 3.42, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 44.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.638, "model_under_probability": 0.362, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5715, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4285, "edge_over": 0.0317, "edge_under": -0.0925, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0317, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:24.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -121, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4257, "model_under_probability": 0.5743, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5475, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4833, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5167, "edge_over": -0.0865, "edge_under": 0.0268, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0268, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.122, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 72.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2483, "model_under_probability": 0.7517, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0261, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0261, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:58.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4291, "model_under_probability": 0.5709, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.0947, "edge_under": 0.0254, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0254, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4257, "model_under_probability": 0.5743, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5142, "edge_over": -0.0935, "edge_under": 0.0248, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0248, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.122, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:57:02.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4257, "model_under_probability": 0.5743, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5142, "edge_over": -0.0935, "edge_under": 0.0248, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0248, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.122, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1516, "model_under_probability": 0.8484, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0234, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0234, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -144, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 6.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.65, "skill_score": 30.5, "opportunity_score": 71.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6132, "model_under_probability": 0.3868, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5511, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4489, "edge_over": 0.023, "edge_under": -0.094, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.023, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:57:15.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -144, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 6.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.65, "skill_score": 30.5, "opportunity_score": 71.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6132, "model_under_probability": 0.3868, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5511, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4489, "edge_over": 0.023, "edge_under": -0.094, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.023, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:51.000Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 3.42, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.41, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 44.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.638, "model_under_probability": 0.362, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.586, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.414, "edge_over": 0.0226, "edge_under": -0.0728, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0226, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Lucas Giolito", "pitcher_id": 608337, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:56.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.26, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 5.4, "opportunity_score": 41.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4985, "model_under_probability": 0.5015, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.458, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.542, "edge_over": 0.0177, "edge_under": -0.0675, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0177, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.117, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:40.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 103, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.83, "skill_score": 33.1, "opportunity_score": 37.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5097, "model_under_probability": 0.4903, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4926, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.464, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.536, "edge_over": 0.0171, "edge_under": -0.0787, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0171, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.39, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:33.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -131, "under_odds": 103, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 33.5, "opportunity_score": 47.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5671, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4926, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5352, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4648, "edge_over": -0.075, "edge_under": 0.0153, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0153, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 270, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.93, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.93, "skill_score": 73.7, "opportunity_score": 66.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 29.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.283, "model_under_probability": 0.717, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2703, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0127, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0127, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.55, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 164, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 72.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3913, "model_under_probability": 0.6087, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3788, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0125, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0125, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 154, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.1, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.406, "model_under_probability": 0.594, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3937, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0123, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0123, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "pitcher_id": 605288, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:57:08.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 3.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.88, "skill_score": 6.9, "opportunity_score": 45.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": 0.0116, "edge_under": -0.0794, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0116, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 55.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 72.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1459, "model_under_probability": 0.8541, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0108, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0108, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4291, "model_under_probability": 0.5709, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4661, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5339, "edge_over": -0.0611, "edge_under": 0.0095, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0095, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:55.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4291, "model_under_probability": 0.5709, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4661, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5339, "edge_over": -0.0611, "edge_under": 0.0095, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0095, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1846, "model_under_probability": 0.8154, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0092, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0092, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 56.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2076, "model_under_probability": 0.7924, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0076, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0076, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 14.1, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2291, "model_under_probability": 0.7709, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0069, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0069, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 700, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 14.1, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1317, "model_under_probability": 0.8683, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0067, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0067, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2447, "model_under_probability": 0.7553, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0066, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0066, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:57:14.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -137, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.418, "model_under_probability": 0.582, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5781, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4541, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5459, "edge_over": -0.0628, "edge_under": 0.0039, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0039, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 33.5, "opportunity_score": 47.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5281, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4719, "edge_over": -0.0731, "edge_under": 0.0029, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0029, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:59.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 33.5, "opportunity_score": 47.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4921, "model_under_probability": 0.5079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5281, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4719, "edge_over": -0.0731, "edge_under": 0.0029, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0029, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:18.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -141, "under_odds": 111, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5851, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4739, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5525, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4475, "edge_over": -0.0613, "edge_under": 0.0023, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0023, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Lucas Giolito", "pitcher_id": 608337, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:42.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 101, "under_odds": -129, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.26, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 5.4, "opportunity_score": 41.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4985, "model_under_probability": 0.5015, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4975, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5633, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.469, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.531, "edge_over": 0.001, "edge_under": -0.0618, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.001, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.117, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5505, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4495, "edge_over": -0.0595, "edge_under": 0.0, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:54.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -134, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5726, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.546, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.454, "edge_over": -0.0488, "edge_under": 0.0, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "pitcher_id": 605288, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:57:02.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.88, "skill_score": 6.9, "opportunity_score": 45.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": 0.0, "edge_under": -0.0476, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 55.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 6.93, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.93, "skill_score": 73.7, "opportunity_score": 66.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 29.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5152, "model_under_probability": 0.4848, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5428, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4572, "edge_over": -0.0611, "edge_under": -0.0006, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0006, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.55, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:57:03.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 14.1, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5433, "model_under_probability": 0.4567, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.0022, "edge_under": -0.0671, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0022, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1714, "model_under_probability": 0.8286, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.004, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.004, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 168, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 14.1, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3686, "model_under_probability": 0.6314, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3731, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0045, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0045, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "pitcher_id": 641778, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:55:23.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -157, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 1.5, "opportunity_score": 32.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3965, "model_under_probability": 0.6035, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6109, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4266, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5734, "edge_over": -0.058, "edge_under": -0.0074, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0074, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:18.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 6.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 56.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.425, "model_under_probability": 0.575, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4495, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5505, "edge_over": -0.0512, "edge_under": -0.0083, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0083, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 6.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 56.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.425, "model_under_probability": 0.575, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5458, "edge_over": -0.0604, "edge_under": -0.0083, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0083, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:54.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 6.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 56.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.425, "model_under_probability": 0.575, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5458, "edge_over": -0.0604, "edge_under": -0.0083, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0083, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Adrian Houser", "pitcher_id": 605288, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:17.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -114, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 3.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.88, "skill_score": 6.9, "opportunity_score": 45.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5031, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4969, "edge_over": -0.0089, "edge_under": -0.0499, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0089, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17064.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 55.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 14.1, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5433, "model_under_probability": 0.4567, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5552, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4448, "edge_over": -0.04, "edge_under": -0.0106, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0106, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:57:15.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 14.1, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5433, "model_under_probability": 0.4567, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5552, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4448, "edge_over": -0.04, "edge_under": -0.0106, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0106, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 162, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3707, "model_under_probability": 0.6293, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3817, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.011, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.011, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.418, "model_under_probability": 0.582, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4452, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5548, "edge_over": -0.0582, "edge_under": -0.0115, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0115, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:57:17.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.418, "model_under_probability": 0.582, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4452, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5548, "edge_over": -0.0582, "edge_under": -0.0115, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0115, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:41.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.1, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.406, "model_under_probability": 0.594, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.0591, "edge_under": -0.0138, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0138, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:33.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -141, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4291, "model_under_probability": 0.5709, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5851, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4487, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5513, "edge_over": -0.0471, "edge_under": -0.0142, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0142, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2864, "model_under_probability": 0.7136, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0166, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0166, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:57:14.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 72.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5657, "model_under_probability": 0.4343, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5505, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4495, "edge_over": -0.0176, "edge_under": -0.0419, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0176, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 72.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5657, "model_under_probability": 0.4343, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5552, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4448, "edge_over": -0.0176, "edge_under": -0.033, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0176, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:57:17.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 72.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5657, "model_under_probability": 0.4343, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5552, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4448, "edge_over": -0.0176, "edge_under": -0.033, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0176, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 210, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 56.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3046, "model_under_probability": 0.6954, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3226, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.018, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.018, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -134, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.1, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5429, "model_under_probability": 0.4571, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5726, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.546, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.454, "edge_over": -0.0297, "edge_under": -0.0191, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0191, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:57:01.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -134, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.1, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5429, "model_under_probability": 0.4571, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5726, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.546, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.454, "edge_over": -0.0297, "edge_under": -0.0191, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0191, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.169, "model_under_probability": 0.831, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0197, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0197, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.122, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "pitcher_id": 641778, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 1.5, "opportunity_score": 32.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3965, "model_under_probability": 0.6035, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4149, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5851, "edge_over": -0.046, "edge_under": -0.0206, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0206, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "pitcher_id": 641778, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:59.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 1.5, "opportunity_score": 32.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3965, "model_under_probability": 0.6035, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4149, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5851, "edge_over": -0.046, "edge_under": -0.0206, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0206, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:18.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -139, "under_odds": 109, "expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.1, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5429, "model_under_probability": 0.4571, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5816, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4785, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5486, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4514, "edge_over": -0.0387, "edge_under": -0.0214, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0214, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:41.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -139, "under_odds": 109, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 14.1, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5433, "model_under_probability": 0.4567, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5816, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4785, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5486, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4514, "edge_over": -0.0383, "edge_under": -0.0218, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0218, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 550, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 33.5, "opportunity_score": 47.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1317, "model_under_probability": 0.8683, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0221, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0221, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:55:13.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.0507, "edge_under": -0.0238, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0238, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -330, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.65, "skill_score": 30.5, "opportunity_score": 71.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7433, "model_under_probability": 0.2567, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7674, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0241, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0241, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:55:13.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 6.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 56.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.425, "model_under_probability": 0.575, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.0512, "edge_under": -0.025, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.025, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 310, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 33.5, "opportunity_score": 47.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2186, "model_under_probability": 0.7814, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2439, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0253, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0253, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 140, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.93, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.93, "skill_score": 73.7, "opportunity_score": 66.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 29.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.391, "model_under_probability": 0.609, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0257, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0257, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.55, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:48.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4257, "model_under_probability": 0.5743, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.0505, "edge_under": -0.0257, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0257, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.122, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:44.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.418, "model_under_probability": 0.582, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.0471, "edge_under": -0.0258, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0258, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2815, "model_under_probability": 0.7185, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0262, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0262, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1101, "model_under_probability": 0.8899, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0269, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0269, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:21.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 33.5, "opportunity_score": 47.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2186, "model_under_probability": 0.7814, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0314, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0314, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "pitcher_id": 641778, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 1.5, "opportunity_score": 32.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1493, "model_under_probability": 0.8507, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0325, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0325, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Lucas Giolito", "pitcher_id": 608337, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:57:12.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.26, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 5.4, "opportunity_score": 41.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4985, "model_under_probability": 0.5015, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0364, "edge_under": -0.0334, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0334, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.117, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 63.5, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:56:44.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 72.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5657, "model_under_probability": 0.4343, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.0343, "edge_under": -0.0419, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0343, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "pitcher_id": 641778, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-09T11:57:01.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 1.5, "opportunity_score": 32.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5708, "model_under_probability": 0.4292, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.037, "edge_under": -0.0359, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0359, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 164, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 33.5, "opportunity_score": 47.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3399, "model_under_probability": 0.6601, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3788, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0389, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0389, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.071, "model_under_probability": 0.929, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0466, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0466, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 205, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2785, "model_under_probability": 0.7215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3279, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0494, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0494, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.122, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "pitcher_id": 641778, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 1.5, "opportunity_score": 32.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2528, "model_under_probability": 0.7472, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0502, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0502, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 72.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7451, "model_under_probability": 0.2549, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0549, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0549, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.013, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.65, "skill_score": 30.5, "opportunity_score": 71.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.854, "model_under_probability": 0.146, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0551, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0551, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 78.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1813, "model_under_probability": 0.8187, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0568, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0568, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1769, "model_under_probability": 0.8231, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0612, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0612, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -4500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.1, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.9104, "model_under_probability": 0.0896, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9783, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0679, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0679, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 62.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0786, "model_under_probability": 0.9214, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0685, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0685, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.1, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6846, "model_under_probability": 0.3154, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0773, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0773, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -420, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 14.1, "opportunity_score": 63.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 33.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7276, "model_under_probability": 0.2724, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0801, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0801, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.036, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -900, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 33.5, "opportunity_score": 47.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8133, "model_under_probability": 0.1867, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0867, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0867, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.126, "model_under_probability": 0.874, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0868, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0868, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "skill_score": 33.5, "opportunity_score": 47.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6591, "model_under_probability": 0.3409, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.75, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0909, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0909, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6864, "model_under_probability": 0.3136, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7778, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0914, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0914, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.1, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8127, "model_under_probability": 0.1873, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0964, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0964, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8574, "model_under_probability": 0.1426, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9565, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0991, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0991, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 172, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2676, "model_under_probability": 0.7324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3676, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.93, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.93, "skill_score": 73.7, "opportunity_score": 66.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 29.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8716, "model_under_probability": 0.1284, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9722, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1006, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1006, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.55, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "pitcher_id": 641778, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -205, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 1.5, "opportunity_score": 32.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5708, "model_under_probability": 0.4292, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6721, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1013, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1013, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8319, "model_under_probability": 0.1681, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1014, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1014, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eric Lauer", "pitcher_id": 641778, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 1.5, "opportunity_score": 32.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7489, "model_under_probability": 0.2511, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.104, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.104, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8411.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.72, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 158, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2823, "model_under_probability": 0.7177, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3876, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1053, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1053, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -210, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5705, "model_under_probability": 0.4295, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6774, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1069, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1069, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7724, "model_under_probability": 0.2276, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8824, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.11, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.11, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Slade Cecconi", "pitcher_id": 677944, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -250, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "skill_score": 11.8, "opportunity_score": 49.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6019, "model_under_probability": 0.3981, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7143, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1124, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1124, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15077.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.93, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.93, "skill_score": 73.7, "opportunity_score": 66.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 29.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.646, "model_under_probability": 0.354, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1159, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1159, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.55, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -210, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 56.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5615, "model_under_probability": 0.4385, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6774, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1159, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1159, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 56.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8242, "model_under_probability": 0.1758, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9412, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.117, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.117, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -800, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.93, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.93, "skill_score": 73.7, "opportunity_score": 66.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 29.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7695, "model_under_probability": 0.2305, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8889, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1194, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1194, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.998, "aggregate_matchup_score": 72.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.55, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 62.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1437, "model_under_probability": 0.8563, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1195, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1195, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -550, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7253, "model_under_probability": 0.2747, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8462, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1209, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1209, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.982, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -4500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8551, "model_under_probability": 0.1449, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9783, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1232, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1232, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -490, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "skill_score": 43.8, "opportunity_score": 56.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7005, "model_under_probability": 0.2995, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8305, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.13, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.13, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -900, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.77, "model_under_probability": 0.23, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.13, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.13, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.122, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -275, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5987, "model_under_probability": 0.4013, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1346, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1346, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.122, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 182, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2109, "model_under_probability": 0.7891, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3546, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1437, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1437, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7988, "model_under_probability": 0.2012, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9524, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1536, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1536, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8073, "model_under_probability": 0.1927, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9722, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1649, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1649, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -900, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7217, "model_under_probability": 0.2783, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1783, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1783, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 136, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 62.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2454, "model_under_probability": 0.7546, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4237, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1783, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1783, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -310, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5661, "model_under_probability": 0.4339, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7561, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.19, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.19, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 62.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7424, "model_under_probability": 0.2576, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9412, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1988, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1988, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -260, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5211, "model_under_probability": 0.4789, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2011, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2011, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -650, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.94, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6655, "model_under_probability": 0.3345, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2012, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2012, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6505, "model_under_probability": 0.3495, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8824, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2319, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2319, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dustin May", "pitcher_id": 669160, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -420, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 26.8, "opportunity_score": 62.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5623, "model_under_probability": 0.4377, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2454, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2454, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.07, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12285.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.79, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -270, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4824, "model_under_probability": 0.5176, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7297, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2473, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2473, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.94, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kai-Wei Teng", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kai-Wei Teng", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }