{ "date": "2026-06-10", "generated_at": "2026-06-10T08:03:48.341116", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-06-10", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 180, "matched_count": 115, "unmatched_count": 65 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 115, "grouped_pitcher_count": 18, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 115, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T05:03:02.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 270, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 9.6, "opportunity_score": 52.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5874, "model_under_probability": 0.4126, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2703, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.3171, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.3171, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.975, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:33.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -164, "under_odds": 128, "expected_strikeouts": 3.16, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.16, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3849, "model_under_probability": 0.6151, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6212, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5861, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4139, "edge_over": -0.2363, "edge_under": 0.1765, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1765, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:53:43.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3406, "model_under_probability": 0.6594, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5428, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4572, "edge_over": -0.2357, "edge_under": 0.174, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.174, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:53:50.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 3.16, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.16, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3849, "model_under_probability": 0.6151, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.2305, "edge_under": 0.1606, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1606, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:07.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 6.26, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.26, "skill_score": 72.4, "opportunity_score": 80.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 13.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3071, "model_under_probability": 0.6929, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4948, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5052, "edge_over": -0.2167, "edge_under": 0.158, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.158, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 13.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3406, "model_under_probability": 0.6594, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5264, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4736, "edge_over": -0.2208, "edge_under": 0.1544, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1544, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:21.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3406, "model_under_probability": 0.6594, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5193, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4807, "edge_over": -0.2049, "edge_under": 0.1544, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1544, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 6.26, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.26, "skill_score": 72.4, "opportunity_score": 80.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 13.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3071, "model_under_probability": 0.6929, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5142, "edge_over": -0.2121, "edge_under": 0.1434, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1434, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 13.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:14.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 6.26, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.26, "skill_score": 72.4, "opportunity_score": 80.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 13.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3071, "model_under_probability": 0.6929, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5142, "edge_over": -0.2121, "edge_under": 0.1434, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1434, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 13.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:20.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 113, "under_odds": -144, "expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2739, "model_under_probability": 0.7261, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4695, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.443, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.557, "edge_over": -0.1956, "edge_under": 0.1359, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1359, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.002, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:53:47.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3406, "model_under_probability": 0.6594, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.2049, "edge_under": 0.1356, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1356, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:16.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 3.16, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.16, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3849, "model_under_probability": 0.6151, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5458, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4542, "edge_over": -0.1984, "edge_under": 0.1297, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1297, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 3.16, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.16, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3849, "model_under_probability": 0.6151, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5419, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4581, "edge_over": -0.1949, "edge_under": 0.1249, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1249, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:53:33.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4205, "model_under_probability": 0.5795, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.1873, "edge_under": 0.1144, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1144, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.002, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2739, "model_under_probability": 0.7261, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5784, "edge_over": -0.1725, "edge_under": 0.1137, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1137, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.002, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:18.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 128, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2739, "model_under_probability": 0.7261, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4173, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5827, "edge_over": -0.1647, "edge_under": 0.1137, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1137, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.002, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "pitcher_id": 669194, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:27.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -126, "under_odds": -101, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4016, "model_under_probability": 0.5984, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5025, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5259, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4741, "edge_over": -0.1559, "edge_under": 0.0959, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0959, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "pitcher_id": 669194, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4016, "model_under_probability": 0.5984, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5241, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4759, "edge_over": -0.1598, "edge_under": 0.0886, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0886, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "pitcher_id": 669194, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:08.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4016, "model_under_probability": 0.5984, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5241, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4759, "edge_over": -0.1598, "edge_under": 0.0886, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0886, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 26.1, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2175, "model_under_probability": 0.7825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0704, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0704, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2175, "model_under_probability": 0.7825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0704, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0704, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:04.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -103, "under_odds": -124, "expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.16, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 51.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5725, "model_under_probability": 0.4275, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5074, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5536, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4782, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5218, "edge_over": 0.0651, "edge_under": -0.1261, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0651, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 26.1, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3262, "model_under_probability": 0.6738, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.063, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.063, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:18.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.16, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 51.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5725, "model_under_probability": 0.4275, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4892, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5108, "edge_over": 0.0603, "edge_under": -0.1074, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0603, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 270, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3262, "model_under_probability": 0.6738, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2703, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0559, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0559, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -142, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4858, "model_under_probability": 0.5142, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.559, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.441, "edge_over": -0.101, "edge_under": 0.0512, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0512, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.61, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:16.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -142, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4858, "model_under_probability": 0.5142, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.559, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.441, "edge_over": -0.101, "edge_under": 0.0512, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0512, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.61, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2186, "model_under_probability": 0.7814, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0432, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0432, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:53:53.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3497, "model_under_probability": 0.6503, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5784, "edge_over": -0.0967, "edge_under": 0.0379, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0379, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.61, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 136, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 26.1, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4611, "model_under_probability": 0.5389, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4237, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0374, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0374, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "skill_score": 21.3, "opportunity_score": 70.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2151, "model_under_probability": 0.7849, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0333, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0333, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 72.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1673, "model_under_probability": 0.8327, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0322, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0322, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "pitcher_id": 453286, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2483, "model_under_probability": 0.7517, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0309, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0309, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.124, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:17.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4611, "model_under_probability": 0.5389, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.414, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.586, "edge_over": 0.0263, "edge_under": -0.0765, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0263, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 310, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 72.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2647, "model_under_probability": 0.7353, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2439, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0208, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0208, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3276, "model_under_probability": 0.6724, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0199, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0199, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "skill_score": 21.3, "opportunity_score": 70.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3235, "model_under_probability": 0.6765, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0158, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0158, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4611, "model_under_probability": 0.5389, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4204, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5796, "edge_over": 0.0147, "edge_under": -0.0765, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0147, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:04.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.28, "skill_score": 48.0, "opportunity_score": 65.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4255, "model_under_probability": 0.5745, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4711, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5289, "edge_over": -0.0745, "edge_under": 0.0131, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0131, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.062, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:53:46.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 72.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5468, "model_under_probability": 0.4532, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": 0.0119, "edge_under": -0.0817, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0119, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "pitcher_id": 453286, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 162, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3913, "model_under_probability": 0.6087, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3817, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0096, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0096, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.124, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:02.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4611, "model_under_probability": 0.5389, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": 0.0066, "edge_under": -0.0765, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0066, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:53:53.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4137, "model_under_probability": 0.5863, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5467, "edge_over": -0.0671, "edge_under": 0.0065, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0065, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4137, "model_under_probability": 0.5863, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4581, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5419, "edge_over": -0.0765, "edge_under": 0.0065, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0065, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:16.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4137, "model_under_probability": 0.5863, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4581, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5419, "edge_over": -0.0765, "edge_under": 0.0065, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0065, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:18.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -134, "expected_strikeouts": 5.28, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.28, "skill_score": 48.0, "opportunity_score": 65.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4255, "model_under_probability": 0.5745, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.454, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.546, "edge_over": -0.0507, "edge_under": 0.0019, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0019, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.062, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:26.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -157, "under_odds": 123, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 26.1, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6114, "model_under_probability": 0.3886, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6109, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4484, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5767, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4233, "edge_over": 0.0005, "edge_under": -0.0598, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0005, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:05.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4626, "model_under_probability": 0.5374, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.441, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.559, "edge_over": -0.0004, "edge_under": -0.0494, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0004, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 550, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1528, "model_under_probability": 0.8472, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1538, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.001, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.001, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.61, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:53:46.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 26.1, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4611, "model_under_probability": 0.5389, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.004, "edge_under": -0.0689, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.004, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 26.1, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6114, "model_under_probability": 0.3886, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.004, "edge_under": -0.0659, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.004, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:53:59.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 26.1, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6114, "model_under_probability": 0.3886, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.004, "edge_under": -0.0659, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.004, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1608, "model_under_probability": 0.8392, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0087, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0087, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4626, "model_under_probability": 0.5374, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5544, "edge_over": -0.0091, "edge_under": -0.0494, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0091, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n", "pitcher_id": 607074, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:08.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "skill_score": 49.9, "opportunity_score": 48.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 63.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4743, "model_under_probability": 0.5257, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0606, "edge_under": -0.0092, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0092, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31867.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 88.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -152, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 72.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5468, "model_under_probability": 0.4532, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5657, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4343, "edge_over": -0.0564, "edge_under": -0.0098, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0098, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:53:59.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -144, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 72.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5468, "model_under_probability": 0.4532, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5604, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4396, "edge_over": -0.0434, "edge_under": -0.0098, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0098, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 146, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 72.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3937, "model_under_probability": 0.6063, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4065, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0128, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0128, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "pitcher_id": 453286, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5657, "model_under_probability": 0.4343, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5552, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4448, "edge_over": -0.0176, "edge_under": -0.033, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0176, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.124, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:53:52.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -126, "under_odds": -101, "expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "skill_score": 62.5, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5155, "model_under_probability": 0.4845, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5025, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5259, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4741, "edge_over": -0.042, "edge_under": -0.018, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.018, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.65, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:28.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 107, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4611, "model_under_probability": 0.5389, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4831, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.544, "edge_over": -0.022, "edge_under": -0.0374, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.022, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:26.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 72.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5468, "model_under_probability": 0.4532, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.0222, "edge_under": -0.037, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0222, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:52:47.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4626, "model_under_probability": 0.5374, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5428, "edge_over": -0.0228, "edge_under": -0.0389, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0228, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n", "pitcher_id": 607074, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:17.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "skill_score": 49.9, "opportunity_score": 48.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 63.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4743, "model_under_probability": 0.5257, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5142, "edge_over": -0.0449, "edge_under": -0.0238, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0238, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31867.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 88.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "skill_score": 21.3, "opportunity_score": 70.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4582, "model_under_probability": 0.5418, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5458, "edge_over": -0.0272, "edge_under": -0.0415, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0272, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:21.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "skill_score": 21.3, "opportunity_score": 70.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4582, "model_under_probability": 0.5418, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5458, "edge_over": -0.0272, "edge_under": -0.0415, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0272, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Carlos Rod\u00f3n", "pitcher_id": 607074, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:53:28.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -101, "under_odds": -127, "expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "skill_score": 49.9, "opportunity_score": 48.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 63.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4743, "model_under_probability": 0.5257, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5025, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5595, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4732, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5268, "edge_over": -0.0282, "edge_under": -0.0338, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0282, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31867.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 88.9, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:53:43.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -133, "expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "skill_score": 21.3, "opportunity_score": 70.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4582, "model_under_probability": 0.5418, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5708, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.462, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.538, "edge_over": -0.032, "edge_under": -0.029, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.029, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:21.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "skill_score": 62.5, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5155, "model_under_probability": 0.4845, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.03, "edge_under": -0.0393, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.03, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.65, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:19.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "skill_score": 62.5, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 31.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5155, "model_under_probability": 0.4845, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.03, "edge_under": -0.0393, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.03, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.65, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -180, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6114, "model_under_probability": 0.3886, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6429, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0315, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0315, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:53:47.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "skill_score": 21.3, "opportunity_score": 70.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4582, "model_under_probability": 0.5418, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.0418, "edge_under": -0.0327, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0327, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 270, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2375, "model_under_probability": 0.7625, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2703, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0328, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0328, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.61, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "pitcher_id": 453286, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -360, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.12, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7451, "model_under_probability": 0.2549, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7826, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0375, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0375, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.124, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2679, "model_under_probability": 0.7321, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0398, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0398, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -420, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 26.1, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7578, "model_under_probability": 0.2422, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0499, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0499, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "pitcher_id": 669194, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 390, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1527, "model_under_probability": 0.8473, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2041, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0514, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0514, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0934, "model_under_probability": 0.9066, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0537, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0537, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.002, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 26.1, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8778, "model_under_probability": 0.1222, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9355, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0577, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0577, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.16, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.16, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0575, "model_under_probability": 0.9425, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0601, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0601, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7578, "model_under_probability": 0.2422, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8182, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0604, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0604, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1800, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8778, "model_under_probability": 0.1222, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9474, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0696, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0696, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -220, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6128, "model_under_probability": 0.3872, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6875, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0747, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0747, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 134, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3497, "model_under_probability": 0.6503, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4274, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0777, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0777, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.61, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8785, "model_under_probability": 0.1215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9615, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.083, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.083, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "skill_score": 21.3, "opportunity_score": 70.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6087, "model_under_probability": 0.3913, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0836, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0836, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "skill_score": 21.3, "opportunity_score": 70.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8765, "model_under_probability": 0.1235, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9615, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.085, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.085, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 72.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8448, "model_under_probability": 0.1552, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0885, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0885, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -4500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8884, "model_under_probability": 0.1116, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9783, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0899, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0899, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.61, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.53, "skill_score": 20.5, "opportunity_score": 48.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 55.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7588, "model_under_probability": 0.2412, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0941, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0941, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.58, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 72.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7058, "model_under_probability": 0.2942, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0942, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0942, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "pitcher_id": 669194, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 182, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2573, "model_under_probability": 0.7427, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3546, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0973, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0973, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1151, "model_under_probability": 0.8849, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0977, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0977, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.16, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.16, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1186, "model_under_probability": 0.8814, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0988, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0988, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "skill_score": 21.3, "opportunity_score": 70.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 21.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7557, "model_under_probability": 0.2443, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8571, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1014, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1014, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 270, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1654, "model_under_probability": 0.8346, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2703, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1049, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1049, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.002, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -700, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7615, "model_under_probability": 0.2385, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.875, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1135, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1135, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -250, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 19.1, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 73.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5874, "model_under_probability": 0.4126, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7143, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1269, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1269, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.089, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-10T11:54:02.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3497, "model_under_probability": 0.6503, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1381, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1381, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.61, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1100, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7752, "model_under_probability": 0.2248, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1415, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1415, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.61, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -360, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "skill_score": 50.2, "opportunity_score": 56.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6341, "model_under_probability": 0.3659, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7826, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1485, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1485, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.61, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.12, "aggregate_matchup_score": 73.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 182, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.206, "model_under_probability": 0.794, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3546, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1486, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1486, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 178, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.26, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.26, "skill_score": 72.4, "opportunity_score": 80.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 13.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2097, "model_under_probability": 0.7903, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3597, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.15, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.15, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 13.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 158, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.16, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.16, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2244, "model_under_probability": 0.7756, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3876, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1632, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1632, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "pitcher_id": 669194, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1100, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7528, "model_under_probability": 0.2472, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1639, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1639, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7664, "model_under_probability": 0.2336, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9524, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.186, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.186, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.002, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryne Nelson", "pitcher_id": 669194, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.18, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 66.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 47.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5758, "model_under_probability": 0.4242, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1861, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1861, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.028, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25783.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 2.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1100, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7046, "model_under_probability": 0.2954, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2121, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2121, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -420, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.16, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.89, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.16, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5898, "model_under_probability": 0.4102, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2179, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2179, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, 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minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 13.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5939, "model_under_probability": 0.4061, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2394, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2394, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.002, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -310, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "skill_score": 2.8, "opportunity_score": 52.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5148, "model_under_probability": 0.4852, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7561, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2413, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2413, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.29, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "skill_score": 21.4, "opportunity_score": 57.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 48.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4205, "model_under_probability": 0.5795, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2462, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2462, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.002, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.26, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.26, "skill_score": 72.4, "opportunity_score": 80.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 13.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5641, "model_under_probability": 0.4359, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2692, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2692, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 13.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -230, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.26, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.26, "skill_score": 72.4, "opportunity_score": 80.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.7, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 13.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4277, "model_under_probability": 0.5723, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.697, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2693, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2693, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 76.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 13.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout 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null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Carlos Rodon", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Carlos Rodon", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale 11+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 10.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", 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"pitcher_name": "Foster Griffin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jesus Luzardo", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reid Detmers", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shohei Ohtani 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }