{ "date": "2026-06-13", "generated_at": "2026-06-13T08:05:04.519544", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-06-13", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 166, "matched_count": 126, "unmatched_count": 40 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 126, "grouped_pitcher_count": 20, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 126, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -162, "under_odds": 132, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 59.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.33, "model_under_probability": 0.67, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5892, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4108, "edge_over": -0.2883, "edge_under": 0.239, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.239, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.778Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -162, "under_odds": 132, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 59.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.33, "model_under_probability": 0.67, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5892, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4108, "edge_over": -0.2883, "edge_under": 0.239, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.239, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 18.2, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3091, "model_under_probability": 0.6909, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.3063, "edge_under": 0.2364, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2364, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.778Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 18.2, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3091, "model_under_probability": 0.6909, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5717, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4283, "edge_over": -0.3033, "edge_under": 0.2322, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2322, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:55:28.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 59.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1975, "model_under_probability": 0.8025, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5428, "edge_over": -0.2879, "edge_under": 0.2262, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2262, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:55:42.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -144, "under_odds": 113, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 18.2, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3091, "model_under_probability": 0.6909, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4695, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.557, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.443, "edge_over": -0.2811, "edge_under": 0.2214, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2214, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:55:51.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 18.2, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1933, "model_under_probability": 0.8067, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": -0.2612, "edge_under": 0.1913, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1913, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:00.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 3.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.61, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 41.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 62.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3019, "model_under_probability": 0.6981, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5104, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4896, "edge_over": -0.2394, "edge_under": 0.1789, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1789, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.61, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 41.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 62.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3019, "model_under_probability": 0.6981, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.2436, "edge_under": 0.1743, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1743, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.778Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.61, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 41.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 62.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3019, "model_under_probability": 0.6981, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.2436, "edge_under": 0.1743, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1743, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "pitcher_id": 669373, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 62.2, "opportunity_score": 65.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 28.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3421, "model_under_probability": 0.6579, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1293, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1293, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "aggregate_matchup_score": 84.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:16.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3861, "model_under_probability": 0.6139, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.458, "edge_over": -0.1884, "edge_under": 0.1285, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1285, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3861, "model_under_probability": 0.6139, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5339, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4661, "edge_over": -0.1753, "edge_under": 0.1237, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1237, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.778Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3861, "model_under_probability": 0.6139, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5339, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4661, "edge_over": -0.1753, "edge_under": 0.1237, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1237, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "pitcher_id": 669373, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 188, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 62.2, "opportunity_score": 65.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 28.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.465, "model_under_probability": 0.535, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3472, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.1178, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1178, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "aggregate_matchup_score": 84.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.778Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 42.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3546, "model_under_probability": 0.6454, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4957, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5043, "edge_over": -0.1646, "edge_under": 0.1171, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1171, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 527048, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:54:56.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -151, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 3.36, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.36, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 48.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 53.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4251, "model_under_probability": 0.5749, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6016, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5674, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4326, "edge_over": -0.1765, "edge_under": 0.1162, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1162, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 16.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:55:50.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -116, "expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 42.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3546, "model_under_probability": 0.6454, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.537, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4938, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5062, "edge_over": -0.1692, "edge_under": 0.1084, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1084, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3692, "model_under_probability": 0.6308, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4958, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5042, "edge_over": -0.1546, "edge_under": 0.0981, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0981, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.778Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3692, "model_under_probability": 0.6308, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4914, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5086, "edge_over": -0.1454, "edge_under": 0.0981, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0981, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:16.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3331, "model_under_probability": 0.6669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5428, "edge_over": -0.1523, "edge_under": 0.0906, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0906, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "pitcher_id": 669373, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 62.2, "opportunity_score": 65.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 28.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5998, "model_under_probability": 0.4002, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4759, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5241, "edge_over": 0.09, "edge_under": -0.1612, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.09, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "aggregate_matchup_score": 84.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 117, "under_odds": -149, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 65.4, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3193, "model_under_probability": 0.6807, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4608, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5984, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.435, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.565, "edge_over": -0.1415, "edge_under": 0.0823, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0823, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -123, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3692, "model_under_probability": 0.6308, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5516, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4803, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5197, "edge_over": -0.1406, "edge_under": 0.0792, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0792, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -152, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 65.4, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3193, "model_under_probability": 0.6807, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4365, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5635, "edge_over": -0.148, "edge_under": 0.0775, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0775, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.778Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -152, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 65.4, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3193, "model_under_probability": 0.6807, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4365, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5635, "edge_over": -0.148, "edge_under": 0.0775, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0775, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -152, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3331, "model_under_probability": 0.6669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4365, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5635, "edge_over": -0.1342, "edge_under": 0.0637, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0637, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.778Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -152, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3331, "model_under_probability": 0.6669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4365, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5635, "edge_over": -0.1342, "edge_under": 0.0637, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0637, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "pitcher_id": 681190, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.778Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -112, "under_odds": -118, "expected_strikeouts": 3.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.21, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3951, "model_under_probability": 0.6049, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4939, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5061, "edge_over": -0.1332, "edge_under": 0.0636, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0636, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 13.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "pitcher_id": 667755, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.778Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -142, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "skill_score": 43.2, "opportunity_score": 70.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4772, "model_under_probability": 0.5228, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.559, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.441, "edge_over": -0.1096, "edge_under": 0.0598, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0598, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.949, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "pitcher_id": 622491, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 32.8, "opportunity_score": 42.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2342, "model_under_probability": 0.7658, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0588, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0588, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.06, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35993.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:10.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -121, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 46.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4274, "model_under_probability": 0.5726, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5475, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5155, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4845, "edge_over": -0.1201, "edge_under": 0.058, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.058, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "pitcher_id": 667755, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:55:55.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -147, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "skill_score": 43.2, "opportunity_score": 70.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4772, "model_under_probability": 0.5228, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5951, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5613, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4387, "edge_over": -0.1179, "edge_under": 0.0577, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0577, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.949, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "pitcher_id": 622491, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 32.8, "opportunity_score": 42.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3584, "model_under_probability": 0.6416, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0507, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0507, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.06, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35993.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "pitcher_id": 681190, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:54:50.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 3.21, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.21, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 51.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 47.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3951, "model_under_probability": 0.6049, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4761, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5239, "edge_over": -0.1099, "edge_under": 0.0493, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0493, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 13.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -114, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 46.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4274, "model_under_probability": 0.5726, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5042, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4958, "edge_over": -0.1053, "edge_under": 0.0488, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0488, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.778Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 46.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4274, "model_under_probability": 0.5726, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0964, "edge_under": 0.0488, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0488, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 28.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1946, "model_under_probability": 0.8054, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0475, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0475, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 28.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2987, "model_under_probability": 0.7013, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0355, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0355, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ben Brown", "pitcher_id": 676962, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:34.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -151, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 44.1, "opportunity_score": 29.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 76.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5081, "model_under_probability": 0.4919, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6016, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5674, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4326, "edge_over": -0.0935, "edge_under": 0.0332, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0332, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8699.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 54.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "skill_score": 40.0, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2292, "model_under_probability": 0.7708, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0331, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0331, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 37.9, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1737, "model_under_probability": 0.8263, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0266, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0266, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -144, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 29.6, "opportunity_score": 63.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3855, "model_under_probability": 0.6145, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4396, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5604, "edge_over": -0.0775, "edge_under": 0.0243, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0243, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.778Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -144, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 29.6, "opportunity_score": 63.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and 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null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:55:22.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -147, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 29.6, "opportunity_score": 63.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3855, "model_under_probability": 0.6145, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5951, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4387, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5613, "edge_over": -0.0796, "edge_under": 0.0194, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0194, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 142, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 28.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4315, "model_under_probability": 0.5685, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4132, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0183, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0183, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "pitcher_id": 669373, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -250, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 62.2, "opportunity_score": 65.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 28.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7324, "model_under_probability": 0.2676, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7143, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0181, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0181, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "aggregate_matchup_score": 84.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "pitcher_id": 681347, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 69.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 24.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1643, "model_under_probability": 0.8357, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0172, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0172, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6955.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:55:22.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -151, "expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "skill_score": 40.0, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", 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"opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2728, "model_under_probability": 0.7272, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.274, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0012, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0012, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:21.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 37.9, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5558, "model_under_probability": 0.4442, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5784, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4216, "edge_over": -0.0566, "edge_under": -0.0022, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0022, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -166, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 37.9, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5558, "model_under_probability": 0.4442, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.583, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.417, "edge_over": -0.0683, "edge_under": -0.0022, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0022, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.778Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -166, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 37.9, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5558, "model_under_probability": 0.4442, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.583, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.417, "edge_over": -0.0683, "edge_under": -0.0022, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0022, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 29.6, "opportunity_score": 63.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1779, "model_under_probability": 0.8221, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0039, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0039, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "pitcher_id": 669373, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 62.2, "opportunity_score": 65.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 28.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8465, "model_under_probability": 0.1535, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0064, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0064, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "aggregate_matchup_score": 84.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:55:50.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 28.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5835, "model_under_probability": 0.4165, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4405, "edge_over": -0.01, "edge_under": -0.0508, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.01, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "pitcher_id": 667755, "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:22.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "skill_score": 43.2, "opportunity_score": 70.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4772, "model_under_probability": 0.5228, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0577, "edge_under": -0.0121, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0121, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.949, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20556.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.4, "wind_speed_mph": 3.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "skill_score": 40.0, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4757, "model_under_probability": 0.5243, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4581, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5419, "edge_over": -0.0145, "edge_under": -0.0555, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0145, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.778Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "skill_score": 40.0, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4757, "model_under_probability": 0.5243, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4581, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5419, "edge_over": -0.0145, "edge_under": -0.0555, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0145, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.778Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 28.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5835, "model_under_probability": 0.4165, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5712, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4288, "edge_over": -0.0165, "edge_under": -0.034, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0165, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "pitcher_id": 681347, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 128, "under_odds": -172, "expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 69.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 24.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4188, "model_under_probability": 0.5812, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6324, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4095, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5905, "edge_over": -0.0198, "edge_under": -0.0512, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0198, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6955.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "pitcher_id": 681347, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.778Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 128, "under_odds": -172, "expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 69.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 24.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4188, "model_under_probability": 0.5812, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6324, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4095, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5905, "edge_over": -0.0198, "edge_under": -0.0512, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0198, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6955.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tarik Skubal", "pitcher_id": 669373, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.54, "skill_score": 62.2, "opportunity_score": 65.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 28.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.9293, "model_under_probability": 0.0707, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9524, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0231, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0231, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.063, "aggregate_matchup_score": 84.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29251.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.75, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "pitcher_id": 681347, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:10.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -161, "expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 69.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 24.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4188, "model_under_probability": 0.5812, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6169, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4177, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5823, "edge_over": -0.0237, "edge_under": -0.0357, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0237, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6955.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "pitcher_id": 622491, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:55:28.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -117, "under_odds": -109, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 32.8, "opportunity_score": 42.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5112, "model_under_probability": 0.4888, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5392, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5215, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5083, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4917, "edge_over": -0.028, "edge_under": -0.0327, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.028, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.06, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35993.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 28.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5835, "model_under_probability": 0.4165, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5762, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4238, "edge_over": -0.0289, "edge_under": -0.034, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0289, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.088, "model_under_probability": 0.912, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0296, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0296, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 46.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1702, "model_under_probability": 0.8298, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0298, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0298, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "pitcher_id": 622491, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 32.8, "opportunity_score": 42.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6757, "model_under_probability": 0.3243, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7059, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0302, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0302, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.06, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35993.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 230, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 29.6, "opportunity_score": 63.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2688, "model_under_probability": 0.7312, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.303, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0342, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0342, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 37.9, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4028, "model_under_probability": 0.5972, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0436, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0436, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Luis Castillo", "pitcher_id": 622491, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -670, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 32.8, "opportunity_score": 42.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8247, "model_under_probability": 0.1753, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8701, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0454, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0454, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.06, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35993.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.29, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1418, "model_under_probability": 0.8582, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0469, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0469, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -360, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 28.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7357, "model_under_probability": 0.2643, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7826, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0469, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0469, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1100, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 19.3, "opportunity_score": 28.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8641, "model_under_probability": 0.1359, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0526, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0526, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0778, "model_under_probability": 0.9222, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0573, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0573, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 194, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 46.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.28, "model_under_probability": 0.72, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3401, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0601, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0601, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "pitcher_id": 681347, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -188, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 69.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 24.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5923, "model_under_probability": 0.4077, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6528, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0605, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0605, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6955.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1506, "model_under_probability": 0.8494, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0622, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0622, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 410, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 65.4, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1329, "model_under_probability": 0.8671, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0632, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0632, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mike Burrows", "pitcher_id": 681347, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -490, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 69.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 24.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7652, "model_under_probability": 0.2348, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8305, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0653, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0653, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6955.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ben Brown", "pitcher_id": 676962, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-13T11:56:30.778Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -142, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 44.1, "opportunity_score": 29.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 76.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5081, "model_under_probability": 0.4919, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0787, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0787, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.022, "aggregate_matchup_score": 51.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8699.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 54.3, "wind_speed_mph": 11.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "skill_score": 40.0, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6249, "model_under_probability": 0.3751, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7059, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.081, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.081, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "skill_score": 40.0, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8842, "model_under_probability": 0.1158, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9677, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0835, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0835, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 18.2, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0624, "model_under_probability": 0.9376, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0847, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0847, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 220, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2233, "model_under_probability": 0.7767, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0892, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0892, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 59.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.0561, "model_under_probability": 0.9439, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1471, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.091, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.091, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1426, "model_under_probability": 0.8574, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0955, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0955, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1800, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 37.9, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8496, "model_under_probability": 0.1504, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9474, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0978, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0978, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -650, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.62, "skill_score": 40.0, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7682, "model_under_probability": 0.2318, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0985, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0985, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.13, "skill_score": 37.9, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 47.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7132, "model_under_probability": 0.2868, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8182, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.105, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.105, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 210, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 65.4, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2117, "model_under_probability": 0.7883, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3226, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1109, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1109, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 182, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2434, "model_under_probability": 0.7566, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3546, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1112, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1112, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 46.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7712, "model_under_probability": 0.2288, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8824, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1112, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1112, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 370, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.61, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 41.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 62.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.0939, "model_under_probability": 0.9061, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2128, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1189, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1189, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 19.4, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 46.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6003, "model_under_probability": 0.3997, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7368, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1365, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1365, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8311, "model_under_probability": 0.1689, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9722, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1411, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1411, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 29.6, "opportunity_score": 63.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7997, "model_under_probability": 0.2003, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9412, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1415, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1415, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 290, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 18.2, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1131, "model_under_probability": 0.8869, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2564, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1433, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1433, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 158, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2439, "model_under_probability": 0.7561, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3876, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1437, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1437, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -205, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 29.6, "opportunity_score": 63.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5225, "model_under_probability": 0.4775, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6721, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1496, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1496, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 59.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1091, "model_under_probability": 0.8909, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1541, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1541, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -490, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.95, "skill_score": 29.6, "opportunity_score": 63.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6668, "model_under_probability": 0.3332, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8305, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1637, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1637, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.13, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 14.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.763, "model_under_probability": 0.237, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9412, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1782, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1782, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7411, "model_under_probability": 0.2589, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9231, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.182, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.182, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 65.4, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7524, "model_under_probability": 0.2476, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9412, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1888, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1888, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 174, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.61, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 41.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 62.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1754, "model_under_probability": 0.8246, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.365, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1896, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1896, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6851, "model_under_probability": 0.3149, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8824, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1973, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1973, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ranger Suarez", "pitcher_id": 624133, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -275, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 41.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 61.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5222, "model_under_probability": 0.4778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2111, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2111, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27635.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -215, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4685, "model_under_probability": 0.5315, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6825, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.214, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.214, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.57, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.57, "skill_score": 39.4, "opportunity_score": 74.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 14.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6182, "model_under_probability": 0.3818, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2151, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2151, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.09, "skill_score": 20.7, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5606, "model_under_probability": 0.4394, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7778, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2172, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2172, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 140, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 18.2, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1933, "model_under_probability": 0.8067, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2234, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2234, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -490, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 65.4, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6046, "model_under_probability": 0.3954, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8305, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2259, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2259, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 134, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 59.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1975, "model_under_probability": 0.8025, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4274, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2299, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2299, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -220, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.47, "skill_score": 65.4, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4538, "model_under_probability": 0.5462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6875, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2337, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2337, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.77, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 59.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6956, "model_under_probability": 0.3044, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2377, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2377, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1100, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.61, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 41.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 62.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6703, "model_under_probability": 0.3297, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2464, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2464, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.61, "skill_score": 38.7, "opportunity_score": 41.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 62.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4738, "model_under_probability": 0.5262, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2881, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2881, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.3, "wind_speed_mph": 15.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 18.2, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6298, "model_under_probability": 0.3702, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9231, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2933, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2933, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -420, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.77, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.77, "skill_score": 40.3, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 59.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5038, "model_under_probability": 0.4962, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.3039, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.3039, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.96, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 85.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -380, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 18.2, "opportunity_score": 59.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4593, "model_under_probability": 0.5407, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7917, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.3324, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.3324, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Vasquez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Vasquez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Vasquez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Vasquez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor McDonald", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Gibson", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }