{ "date": "2026-06-14", "generated_at": "2026-06-14T08:06:12.087467", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-06-14", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 231, "matched_count": 200, "unmatched_count": 31 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 200, "grouped_pitcher_count": 25, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 200, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:15.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 60.9, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2634, "model_under_probability": 0.7366, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.352, "edge_under": 0.2821, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2821, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.988, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:02.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -142, "under_odds": 111, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 60.9, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2634, "model_under_probability": 0.7366, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4739, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5532, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4468, "edge_over": -0.3234, "edge_under": 0.2627, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2627, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.988, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -152, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 60.9, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1662, "model_under_probability": 0.8338, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4253, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5747, "edge_over": -0.2802, "edge_under": 0.2306, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2306, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.988, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -152, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 60.9, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1662, "model_under_probability": 0.8338, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4253, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5747, "edge_over": -0.2802, "edge_under": 0.2306, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2306, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.988, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 80.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 10.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3511, "model_under_probability": 0.6489, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.538, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.462, "edge_over": -0.2141, "edge_under": 0.1635, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1635, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 80.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 10.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3511, "model_under_probability": 0.6489, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.538, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.462, "edge_over": -0.2141, "edge_under": 0.1635, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1635, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:20.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 80.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 10.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3511, "model_under_probability": 0.6489, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.2322, "edge_under": 0.1611, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1611, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:22.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 2.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.84, "skill_score": 16.2, "opportunity_score": 51.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3192, "model_under_probability": 0.6808, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": -0.2157, "edge_under": 0.1547, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1547, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.103, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:57:56.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -119, "under_odds": -107, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3337, "model_under_probability": 0.6663, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5434, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5169, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5125, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4875, "edge_over": -0.2097, "edge_under": 0.1494, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1494, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:57:42.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 80.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 10.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2386, "model_under_probability": 0.7614, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5784, "edge_over": -0.2078, "edge_under": 0.149, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.149, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:10.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -107, "under_odds": -119, "expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 65.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3124, "model_under_probability": 0.6876, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5169, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5434, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4875, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5125, "edge_over": -0.2045, "edge_under": 0.1442, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1442, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.959, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.66, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:57:56.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -151, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3978, "model_under_probability": 0.6022, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6016, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5674, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4326, "edge_over": -0.2038, "edge_under": 0.1435, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1435, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "pitcher_id": 650911, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 71.5, "opportunity_score": 88.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 8.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2518, "model_under_probability": 0.7482, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.433, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.567, "edge_over": -0.2112, "edge_under": 0.1419, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1419, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "pitcher_id": 650911, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:15.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 71.5, "opportunity_score": 88.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 8.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2518, "model_under_probability": 0.7482, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.2133, "edge_under": 0.1404, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1404, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "pitcher_id": 650911, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:02.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 121, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 71.5, "opportunity_score": 88.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 8.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2518, "model_under_probability": 0.7482, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4525, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4268, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5732, "edge_over": -0.2007, "edge_under": 0.1404, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1404, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:57:36.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -151, "expected_strikeouts": 3.36, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.36, "skill_score": 9.1, "opportunity_score": 33.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2584, "model_under_probability": 0.7416, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6016, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4326, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5674, "edge_over": -0.2003, "edge_under": 0.14, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.14, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:57:47.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 2.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.84, "skill_score": 16.2, "opportunity_score": 51.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3192, "model_under_probability": 0.6808, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.2046, "edge_under": 0.1353, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1353, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.103, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 2.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.84, "skill_score": 16.2, "opportunity_score": 51.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3192, "model_under_probability": 0.6808, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5142, "edge_over": -0.2, "edge_under": 0.1313, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1313, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.103, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 2.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.84, "skill_score": 16.2, "opportunity_score": 51.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3192, "model_under_probability": 0.6808, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4858, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5142, "edge_over": -0.2, "edge_under": 0.1313, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1313, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.103, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:57:54.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4257, "model_under_probability": 0.5743, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5807, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4193, "edge_over": -0.1897, "edge_under": 0.1299, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1299, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.123, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:57:57.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3978, "model_under_probability": 0.6022, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.2022, "edge_under": 0.126, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.126, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3337, "model_under_probability": 0.6663, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.1901, "edge_under": 0.1208, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1208, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3337, "model_under_probability": 0.6663, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.1901, "edge_under": 0.1208, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1208, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:16.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 3.36, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.36, "skill_score": 9.1, "opportunity_score": 33.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4251, "model_under_probability": 0.5749, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.1903, "edge_under": 0.1204, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1204, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:10.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4257, "model_under_probability": 0.5743, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.1897, "edge_under": 0.1198, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1198, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.123, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 3.36, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.36, "skill_score": 9.1, "opportunity_score": 33.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4251, "model_under_probability": 0.5749, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5717, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4283, "edge_over": -0.1873, "edge_under": 0.1162, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1162, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 3.36, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.36, "skill_score": 9.1, "opportunity_score": 33.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4251, "model_under_probability": 0.5749, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5717, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4283, "edge_over": -0.1873, "edge_under": 0.1162, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1162, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4257, "model_under_probability": 0.5743, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5717, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4283, "edge_over": -0.1867, "edge_under": 0.1156, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1156, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.123, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4257, "model_under_probability": 0.5743, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5717, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4283, "edge_over": -0.1867, "edge_under": 0.1156, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1156, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.123, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3978, "model_under_probability": 0.6022, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5339, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4661, "edge_over": -0.1636, "edge_under": 0.112, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.112, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3978, "model_under_probability": 0.6022, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5339, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4661, "edge_over": -0.1636, "edge_under": 0.112, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.112, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:57:57.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3337, "model_under_probability": 0.6663, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.1785, "edge_under": 0.1107, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1107, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 65.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3124, "model_under_probability": 0.6876, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5458, "edge_over": -0.173, "edge_under": 0.1043, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1043, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.959, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.66, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 65.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3124, "model_under_probability": 0.6876, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5458, "edge_over": -0.173, "edge_under": 0.1043, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1043, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.959, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.66, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 55.8, "opportunity_score": 28.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 92.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3137, "model_under_probability": 0.6863, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0963, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0963, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:13.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 58.1, "opportunity_score": 44.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 57.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3707, "model_under_probability": 0.6293, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1642, "edge_under": 0.0944, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0944, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 168, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 55.8, "opportunity_score": 28.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 92.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4643, "model_under_probability": 0.5357, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3731, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0912, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0912, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:57:53.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 65.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3124, "model_under_probability": 0.6876, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.1527, "edge_under": 0.0798, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0798, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.959, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.66, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 55.8, "opportunity_score": 28.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 92.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.197, "model_under_probability": 0.803, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0794, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0794, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.198, "model_under_probability": 0.802, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.061, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.061, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:33.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 58.1, "opportunity_score": 44.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 57.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3707, "model_under_probability": 0.6293, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.458, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.542, "edge_over": -0.1147, "edge_under": 0.0548, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0548, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Casey Mize", "pitcher_id": 663554, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.77, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.55, "skill_score": 55.8, "opportunity_score": 28.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 92.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6343, "model_under_probability": 0.3657, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5419, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4581, "edge_over": 0.0545, "edge_under": -0.1245, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0545, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18609.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 58.1, "opportunity_score": 44.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 57.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3707, "model_under_probability": 0.6293, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4621, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5379, "edge_over": -0.1243, "edge_under": 0.053, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.053, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 58.1, "opportunity_score": 44.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 57.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3707, "model_under_probability": 0.6293, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4621, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5379, "edge_over": -0.1243, "edge_under": 0.053, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.053, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4969, "model_under_probability": 0.5031, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5712, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4288, "edge_over": -0.1031, "edge_under": 0.0526, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0526, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4969, "model_under_probability": 0.5031, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5712, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4288, "edge_over": -0.1031, "edge_under": 0.0526, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0526, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.44, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2082, "model_under_probability": 0.7918, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0469, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0469, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "skill_score": 23.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.228, "model_under_probability": 0.772, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0462, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0462, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "pitcher_id": 571578, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1786, "model_under_probability": 0.8214, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0435, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0435, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33148.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1789, "model_under_probability": 0.8211, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0419, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0419, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "pitcher_id": 571578, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2907, "model_under_probability": 0.7093, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0407, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0407, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33148.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3028, "model_under_probability": 0.6972, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0396, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0396, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2701, "model_under_probability": 0.7299, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.032, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.032, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "skill_score": 23.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3386, "model_under_probability": 0.6614, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0309, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", 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"Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2263, "model_under_probability": 0.7737, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1961, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0302, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 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"model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4237, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0123, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0123, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "pitcher_id": 571578, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:57:38.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6114, "model_under_probability": 0.3886, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": 0.0114, "edge_under": -0.0876, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0114, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33148.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "pitcher_id": 571578, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:57:40.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 133, "under_odds": -170, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4392, "model_under_probability": 0.5608, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4292, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6296, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4054, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5946, "edge_over": 0.01, "edge_under": -0.0688, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.01, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33148.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "pitcher_id": 571945, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:57:53.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -175, "expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 18.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 93.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4448, "model_under_probability": 0.5552, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6364, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4059, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5941, "edge_over": 0.01, "edge_under": -0.0812, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.01, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 168, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 72.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3826, "model_under_probability": 0.6174, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3731, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0095, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0095, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 162, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3869, "model_under_probability": 0.6131, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3817, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0052, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0052, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "pitcher_id": 681293, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 22.5, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2421, "model_under_probability": 0.7579, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.004, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.004, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:00.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4969, "model_under_probability": 0.5031, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.0776, "edge_under": 0.0031, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0031, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.44, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4494, "model_under_probability": 0.5506, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4266, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5734, "edge_over": 0.003, "edge_under": -0.0494, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.003, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.44, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4494, "model_under_probability": 0.5506, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4266, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5734, "edge_over": 0.003, "edge_under": -0.0494, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.003, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:57:54.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -157, "under_odds": 123, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 12.7, "opportunity_score": 57.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5503, "model_under_probability": 0.4497, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6109, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4484, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5767, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4233, "edge_over": -0.0606, "edge_under": 0.0013, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0013, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 12.7, "opportunity_score": 57.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.136, "model_under_probability": 0.864, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0009, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0009, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1346, "model_under_probability": 0.8654, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0005, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0005, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 44.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1365, "model_under_probability": 0.8635, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0005, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0005, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:22.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 121, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 5.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.44, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4494, "model_under_probability": 0.5506, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4525, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4274, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5726, "edge_over": -0.0031, "edge_under": -0.0557, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0031, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "pitcher_id": 571578, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6114, "model_under_probability": 0.3886, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.586, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.414, "edge_over": -0.004, "edge_under": -0.0462, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.004, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33148.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "pitcher_id": 571578, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6114, "model_under_probability": 0.3886, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.586, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.414, "edge_over": -0.004, "edge_under": -0.0462, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.004, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33148.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:10.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 12.7, "opportunity_score": 57.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5503, "model_under_probability": 0.4497, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.0651, "edge_under": -0.0048, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0048, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 138, "under_odds": -170, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 12.7, "opportunity_score": 57.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3756, "model_under_probability": 0.6244, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4202, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6296, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4003, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5997, "edge_over": -0.0446, "edge_under": -0.0052, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0052, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 138, "under_odds": -170, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 12.7, "opportunity_score": 57.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3756, "model_under_probability": 0.6244, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4202, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6296, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4003, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5997, "edge_over": -0.0446, "edge_under": -0.0052, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0052, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "pitcher_id": 681293, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 168, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 22.5, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3676, "model_under_probability": 0.6324, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3731, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0055, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0055, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "pitcher_id": 571945, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 122, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 18.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 93.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4448, "model_under_probability": 0.5552, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4288, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5712, "edge_over": -0.0057, "edge_under": -0.0448, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0057, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:57:40.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -124, "under_odds": -103, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 38.2, "opportunity_score": 53.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4985, "model_under_probability": 0.5015, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5536, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5074, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5218, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4782, "edge_over": -0.0551, "edge_under": -0.0059, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0059, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:31.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -123, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4969, "model_under_probability": 0.5031, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5516, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5197, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4803, "edge_over": -0.0547, "edge_under": -0.0067, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0067, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "pitcher_id": 693821, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 25.9, "opportunity_score": 51.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5017, "model_under_probability": 0.4983, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4759, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5241, "edge_over": -0.0081, "edge_under": -0.0631, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0081, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.983, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "pitcher_id": 693821, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 25.9, "opportunity_score": 51.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5017, "model_under_probability": 0.4983, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4759, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5241, "edge_over": -0.0081, "edge_under": -0.0631, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0081, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.983, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 182, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 38.2, "opportunity_score": 53.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3461, "model_under_probability": 0.6539, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3546, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0085, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0085, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:00.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5878, "model_under_probability": 0.4122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": -0.009, "edge_under": -0.0508, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.009, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:00.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0111, "edge_under": -0.0587, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0111, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 4.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 72.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5572, "model_under_probability": 0.4428, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.458, "edge_over": -0.0118, "edge_under": -0.038, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0118, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 4.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 72.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5572, "model_under_probability": 0.4428, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.458, "edge_over": -0.0118, "edge_under": -0.038, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0118, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:57:36.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -133, "expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4775, "model_under_probability": 0.5225, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5708, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.462, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.538, "edge_over": -0.0127, "edge_under": -0.0483, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0127, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:00.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -116, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.537, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5062, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4938, "edge_over": -0.0132, "edge_under": -0.0476, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0132, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 44.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2499, "model_under_probability": 0.7501, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0133, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0133, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "pitcher_id": 693821, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:00.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 25.9, "opportunity_score": 51.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5017, "model_under_probability": 0.4983, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5203, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4797, "edge_over": -0.0539, "edge_under": -0.0139, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0139, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.983, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "pitcher_id": 571945, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 18.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 93.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4448, "model_under_probability": 0.5552, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": -0.0139, "edge_under": -0.0448, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0139, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "pitcher_id": 693821, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:00.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -107, "under_odds": -119, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 25.9, "opportunity_score": 51.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5017, "model_under_probability": 0.4983, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5169, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5434, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4875, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5125, "edge_over": -0.0152, "edge_under": -0.0451, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0152, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.983, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "pitcher_id": 681293, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 22.5, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5207, "model_under_probability": 0.4793, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5379, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4621, "edge_over": -0.0556, "edge_under": -0.0157, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0157, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "pitcher_id": 681293, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 22.5, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5207, "model_under_probability": 0.4793, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5379, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4621, "edge_over": -0.0556, "edge_under": -0.0157, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0157, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 290, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 12.7, "opportunity_score": 57.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.235, "model_under_probability": 0.765, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2564, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0214, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0214, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 3.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 44.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4152, "model_under_probability": 0.5848, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.433, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.567, "edge_over": -0.0478, "edge_under": -0.0215, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0215, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 3.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 44.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4152, "model_under_probability": 0.5848, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.433, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.567, "edge_over": -0.0478, "edge_under": -0.0215, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0215, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -174, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5878, "model_under_probability": 0.4122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.635, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5936, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4064, "edge_over": -0.0472, "edge_under": -0.0226, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0226, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -174, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5878, "model_under_probability": 0.4122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.635, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5936, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4064, "edge_over": -0.0472, "edge_under": -0.0226, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0226, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4775, "model_under_probability": 0.5225, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4831, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5169, "edge_over": -0.0323, "edge_under": -0.023, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.023, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4775, "model_under_probability": 0.5225, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4807, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5193, "edge_over": -0.0275, "edge_under": -0.023, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.023, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5236, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4764, "edge_over": -0.0257, "edge_under": -0.0238, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0238, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5236, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4764, "edge_over": -0.0257, "edge_under": -0.0238, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0238, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:57:47.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 5.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.44, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4494, "model_under_probability": 0.5506, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.0506, "edge_under": -0.0239, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0239, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:13.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "skill_score": 23.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4743, "model_under_probability": 0.5257, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.0257, "edge_under": -0.0488, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0257, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 38.2, "opportunity_score": 53.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4985, "model_under_probability": 0.5015, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5061, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4939, "edge_over": -0.0428, "edge_under": -0.0268, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0268, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:29.603Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 38.2, "opportunity_score": 53.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4985, "model_under_probability": 0.5015, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5061, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4939, "edge_over": -0.0428, "edge_under": -0.0268, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0268, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 300, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2224, "model_under_probability": 0.7776, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.25, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0276, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0276, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:31.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 3.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 44.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4152, "model_under_probability": 0.5848, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5784, "edge_over": -0.0312, "edge_under": -0.0276, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0276, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:27.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -143, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 4.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 72.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5572, "model_under_probability": 0.4428, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5885, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5551, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4449, "edge_over": -0.0313, "edge_under": -0.0289, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0289, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:16.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -210, "under_odds": 155, "expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6461, "model_under_probability": 0.3539, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6774, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.3922, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.6333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.3667, "edge_over": -0.0313, "edge_under": -0.0383, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0313, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:22.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 72.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5572, "model_under_probability": 0.4428, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.0428, "edge_under": -0.0334, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0334, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-06-14T11:58:00.000Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -190, "under_odds": 140, "expected_strikeouts": 3.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 44.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6182, "model_under_probability": 0.3818, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6552, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4167, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.6113, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.3887, "edge_over": -0.037, "edge_under": -0.0349, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0349, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 430, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 58.1, "opportunity_score": 44.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 57.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1516, "model_under_probability": 0.8484, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1887, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0371, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0371, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 640, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.0959, "model_under_probability": 0.9041, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1351, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0392, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0392, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.123, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Stephen Kolek", "pitcher_id": 663568, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.07, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.07, "skill_score": 3.1, "opportunity_score": 72.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 17.2, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7384, "model_under_probability": 0.2616, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7778, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0394, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0394, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.99, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8445.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -188, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.44, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6004, "model_under_probability": 0.3996, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6528, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0524, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0524, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 680, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.36, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.36, "skill_score": 9.1, "opportunity_score": 33.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.0725, "model_under_probability": 0.9275, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1282, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0557, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0557, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Miles Mikolas", "pitcher_id": 571945, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "skill_score": 16.4, "opportunity_score": 18.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 93.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.645, "model_under_probability": 0.355, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7059, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0609, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0609, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.045, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 32803.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 520, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 65.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0995, "model_under_probability": 0.9005, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1613, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0618, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0618, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.959, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.66, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 146, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3445, "model_under_probability": 0.6555, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4065, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.062, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.062, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.44, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8725, "model_under_probability": 0.1275, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9355, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.063, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.063, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Corbin", "pitcher_id": 571578, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -550, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.4, "skill_score": 9.8, "opportunity_score": 35.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 71.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7793, "model_under_probability": 0.2207, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8462, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0669, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0669, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33148.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 220, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 58.1, "opportunity_score": 44.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 57.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2447, "model_under_probability": 0.7553, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0678, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0678, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.44, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.44, "skill_score": 40.7, "opportunity_score": 69.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 23.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7492, "model_under_probability": 0.2508, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8182, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.069, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.069, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.169, "model_under_probability": 0.831, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0691, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0691, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.123, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "pitcher_id": 693821, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 25.9, "opportunity_score": 51.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6675, "model_under_probability": 0.3325, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7368, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0693, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0693, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.983, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 290, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.187, "model_under_probability": 0.813, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2564, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0694, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0694, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "pitcher_id": 681293, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -900, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 22.5, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8302, "model_under_probability": 0.1698, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0698, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0698, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -700, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8043, "model_under_probability": 0.1957, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.875, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0707, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0707, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1279, "model_under_probability": 0.8721, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0721, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0721, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -230, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "skill_score": 23.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6235, "model_under_probability": 0.3765, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.697, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0735, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0735, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8662, "model_under_probability": 0.1338, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9412, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.075, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.075, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nathan Eovaldi", "pitcher_id": 543135, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -440, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 55.0, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 12.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7392, "model_under_probability": 0.2608, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8148, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0756, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0756, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26779.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.8, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Spencer Arrighetti", "pitcher_id": 681293, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 22.5, "opportunity_score": 62.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6838, "model_under_probability": 0.3162, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0781, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0781, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12902.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "pitcher_id": 693821, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -900, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 25.9, "opportunity_score": 51.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8191, "model_under_probability": 0.1809, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0809, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0809, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.983, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -270, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.72, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6461, "model_under_probability": 0.3539, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7297, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0836, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0836, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "skill_score": 23.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8835, "model_under_probability": 0.1165, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9677, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0842, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0842, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 490, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 2.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.84, "skill_score": 16.2, "opportunity_score": 51.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0842, "model_under_probability": 0.9158, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1695, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0853, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0853, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.103, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.61, "skill_score": 23.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 22.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7672, "model_under_probability": 0.2328, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8571, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0899, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0899, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.996, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 59.4, "wind_speed_mph": 12.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -245, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 44.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6182, "model_under_probability": 0.3818, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7101, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0919, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0919, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.102, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.668, "model_under_probability": 0.332, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0939, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0939, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.36, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.36, "skill_score": 9.1, "opportunity_score": 33.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1427, "model_under_probability": 0.8573, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0954, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0954, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 38.2, "opportunity_score": 53.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6647, "model_under_probability": 0.3353, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0972, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0972, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Freddy Peralta", "pitcher_id": 642547, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -900, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.96, "skill_score": 26.0, "opportunity_score": 67.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 27.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8006, "model_under_probability": 0.1994, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0994, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0994, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.007, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 36211.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.8, "wind_speed_mph": 18.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Will Warren", "pitcher_id": 701542, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1100, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 38.2, "opportunity_score": 53.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8172, "model_under_probability": 0.1828, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0995, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0995, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.004, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15754.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -192, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 12.7, "opportunity_score": 57.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5503, "model_under_probability": 0.4497, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6575, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1072, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1072, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 80.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 10.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1538, "model_under_probability": 0.8462, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1094, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1094, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -550, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 12.7, "opportunity_score": 57.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 44.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7331, "model_under_probability": 0.2669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8462, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1131, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1131, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 235, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 65.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1836, "model_under_probability": 0.8164, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2985, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1149, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1149, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.959, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.66, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 152, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2799, "model_under_probability": 0.7201, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3968, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1169, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1169, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 152, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2785, "model_under_probability": 0.7215, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3968, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1183, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1183, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.123, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8162, "model_under_probability": 0.1838, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9355, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1193, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1193, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 58.1, "opportunity_score": 44.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 57.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8319, "model_under_probability": 0.1681, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9524, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1205, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1205, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 198, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2134, "model_under_probability": 0.7866, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3356, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1222, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1222, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 225, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 2.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.84, "skill_score": 16.2, "opportunity_score": 51.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1726, "model_under_probability": 0.8274, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1351, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1351, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.103, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 154, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.36, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.36, "skill_score": 9.1, "opportunity_score": 33.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2584, "model_under_probability": 0.7416, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3937, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1353, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1353, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jeffrey Springs", "pitcher_id": 605488, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6633, "model_under_probability": 0.3367, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1367, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1367, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16173.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 84.0, "wind_speed_mph": 11.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8093, "model_under_probability": 0.1907, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9677, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1584, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1584, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.77, "model_under_probability": 0.23, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1633, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1633, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.123, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -580, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 58.1, "opportunity_score": 44.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 57.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6864, "model_under_probability": 0.3136, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8529, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1665, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1665, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -4000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8076, "model_under_probability": 0.1924, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9756, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.168, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.168, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -230, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.92, "skill_score": 58.1, "opportunity_score": 44.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 57.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5238, "model_under_probability": 0.4762, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.697, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1732, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1732, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 142, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 80.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 10.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2386, "model_under_probability": 0.7614, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4132, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1746, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1746, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -420, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.36, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.36, "skill_score": 9.1, "opportunity_score": 33.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 80.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6273, "model_under_probability": 0.3727, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1804, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1804, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.5, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -700, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 65.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.68, "model_under_probability": 0.32, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.875, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.195, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.195, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.959, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.66, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 80.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 10.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7762, "model_under_probability": 0.2238, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9722, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.196, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.196, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "pitcher_id": 668678, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.85, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.32, "skill_score": 17.4, "opportunity_score": 49.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5987, "model_under_probability": 0.4013, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2013, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2013, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.123, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35438.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.9, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 17.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -650, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6534, "model_under_probability": 0.3466, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2133, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2133, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 220, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 60.9, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.0991, "model_under_probability": 0.9009, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2134, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2134, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.988, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -850, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6775, "model_under_probability": 0.3225, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8947, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2172, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2172, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.67, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "skill_score": 23.2, "opportunity_score": 65.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4852, "model_under_probability": 0.5148, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7059, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2207, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2207, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.959, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.66, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 94.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -310, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.04, "skill_score": 41.7, "opportunity_score": 61.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 53.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 52.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5348, "model_under_probability": 0.4652, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7561, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2213, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2213, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.068, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Meyer", "pitcher_id": 676974, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -250, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 54.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4856, "model_under_probability": 0.5144, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7143, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2287, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2287, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9067.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.7, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -310, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 2.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.84, "skill_score": 16.2, "opportunity_score": 51.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 49.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5241, "model_under_probability": 0.4759, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7561, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.232, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.232, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.103, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.7, "wind_speed_mph": 12.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -850, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 80.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 10.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6354, "model_under_probability": 0.3646, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8947, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2593, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2593, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "skill_score": 57.9, "opportunity_score": 80.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 10.3, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4873, "model_under_probability": 0.5127, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7619, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2746, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2746, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.967, "aggregate_matchup_score": 47.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 64.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 60.9, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5453, "model_under_probability": 0.4547, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9231, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.3778, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.3778, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.988, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -188, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 60.9, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2634, "model_under_probability": 0.7366, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6528, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.3894, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.3894, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.988, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -420, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 60.9, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3921, "model_under_probability": 0.6079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8077, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.4156, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.4156, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.988, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 12.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connelly Early", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez 11+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 10.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }