{ "date": "2026-07-23", "generated_at": "2026-07-23T23:40:02.230499", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-07-23", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 32, "matched_count": 18, "unmatched_count": 14 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 18, "grouped_pitcher_count": 6, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 18, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-23T11:58:48.354Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -143, "under_odds": 111, "expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "skill_score": 69.5, "opportunity_score": 54.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.358, "model_under_probability": 0.642, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5885, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4739, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5539, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4461, "edge_over": -0.2305, "edge_under": 0.1681, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1681, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.974, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-23T11:58:53.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "skill_score": 69.5, "opportunity_score": 54.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.358, "model_under_probability": 0.642, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.2253, "edge_under": 0.1542, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1542, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.974, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-23T11:58:53.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 55.8, "opportunity_score": 64.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 19.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3921, "model_under_probability": 0.6079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.2157, "edge_under": 0.1428, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1428, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-23T11:58:53.817Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "skill_score": 69.5, "opportunity_score": 54.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.358, "model_under_probability": 0.642, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4761, "edge_over": -0.1976, "edge_under": 0.137, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.137, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.974, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "pitcher_id": 694297, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-23T11:58:53.817Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "skill_score": 15.0, "opportunity_score": 34.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6207, "model_under_probability": 0.3793, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5428, "edge_over": 0.1353, "edge_under": -0.197, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1353, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.093, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-23T11:58:48.354Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 119, "under_odds": -152, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 55.8, "opportunity_score": 64.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 19.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2634, "model_under_probability": 0.7366, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4566, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4308, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5692, "edge_over": -0.1932, "edge_under": 0.1334, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1334, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "pitcher_id": 694297, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-23T11:59:12.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "skill_score": 15.0, "opportunity_score": 34.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6207, "model_under_probability": 0.3793, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": 0.1329, "edge_under": -0.204, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1329, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.093, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-23T11:58:53.817Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 55.8, "opportunity_score": 64.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 19.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2634, "model_under_probability": 0.7366, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4285, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5715, "edge_over": -0.1911, "edge_under": 0.1303, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1303, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.9, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "pitcher_id": 694297, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-23T11:58:48.354Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -101, "under_odds": -124, "expected_strikeouts": 4.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "skill_score": 15.0, "opportunity_score": 34.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6207, "model_under_probability": 0.3793, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5025, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5536, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4758, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5242, "edge_over": 0.1182, "edge_under": -0.1743, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1182, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.38, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.093, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.17, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-23T11:58:48.354Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.42, "skill_score": 63.3, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3271, "model_under_probability": 0.6729, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4761, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5239, "edge_over": -0.1779, "edge_under": 0.1173, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1173, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 91.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "pitcher_id": 669456, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-23T11:58:48.354Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 123, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 9.1, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5331, "model_under_probability": 0.4669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4484, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4245, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5755, "edge_over": 0.0847, "edge_under": -0.1409, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0847, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "pitcher_id": 669456, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-23T11:58:53.817Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 9.1, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5331, "model_under_probability": 0.4669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4285, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5715, "edge_over": 0.0786, "edge_under": -0.1394, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0786, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-23T11:58:59.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.42, "skill_score": 63.3, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3271, "model_under_probability": 0.6729, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.1491, "edge_under": 0.0729, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0729, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 91.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-23T11:58:53.817Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.42, "skill_score": 63.3, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 51.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3271, "model_under_probability": 0.6729, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": -0.1316, "edge_under": 0.0729, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0729, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 91.6, "wind_speed_mph": 11.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "pitcher_id": 669456, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-23T11:58:35.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 4.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.98, "skill_score": 9.1, "opportunity_score": 30.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 63.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5331, "model_under_probability": 0.4669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": 0.068, "edge_under": -0.1409, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.068, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-23T11:59:12.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 3.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.01, "skill_score": 11.4, "opportunity_score": 53.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3543, "model_under_probability": 0.6457, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.1108, "edge_under": 0.0379, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0379, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.3, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-23T11:58:48.354Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -167, "expected_strikeouts": 3.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.01, "skill_score": 11.4, "opportunity_score": 53.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3543, "model_under_probability": 0.6457, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6255, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5899, "edge_over": -0.0805, "edge_under": 0.0202, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0202, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.3, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-23T11:58:53.817Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 142, "under_odds": -184, "expected_strikeouts": 3.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.01, "skill_score": 11.4, "opportunity_score": 53.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3543, "model_under_probability": 0.6457, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4132, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6479, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.3894, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.6106, "edge_over": -0.0589, "edge_under": -0.0022, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0022, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.017, "aggregate_matchup_score": 21.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.3, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.3, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Canning", "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Canning", "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Canning", "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "team_abbr": "ARI", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zac Gallen", "team_abbr": "ARI", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }