{ "date": "2026-07-30", "generated_at": "2026-07-31T00:00:01.031777", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-07-30", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 48, "matched_count": 34, "unmatched_count": 14 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 34, "grouped_pitcher_count": 12, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 34, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:32.858Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "skill_score": 59.9, "opportunity_score": 57.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 31.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1678, "model_under_probability": 0.8322, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": -0.429, "edge_under": 0.3692, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3692, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:26.842Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 113, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "skill_score": 59.9, "opportunity_score": 57.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 31.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.095, "model_under_probability": 0.905, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4695, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4417, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5583, "edge_over": -0.3745, "edge_under": 0.3115, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3115, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:29.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.31, "skill_score": 59.9, "opportunity_score": 57.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 31.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.095, "model_under_probability": 0.905, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.3701, "edge_under": 0.2972, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2972, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.064, "aggregate_matchup_score": 30.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:26.842Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -171, "under_odds": 127, "expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "skill_score": 49.6, "opportunity_score": 30.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 81.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3291, "model_under_probability": 0.6709, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.631, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4405, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5889, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4111, "edge_over": -0.3019, "edge_under": 0.2304, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2304, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:32.858Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "skill_score": 49.6, "opportunity_score": 30.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 81.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3291, "model_under_probability": 0.6709, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5784, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4216, "edge_over": -0.2833, "edge_under": 0.2245, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2245, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:29.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.65, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.65, "skill_score": 49.6, "opportunity_score": 30.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 81.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2096, "model_under_probability": 0.7904, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.2782, "edge_under": 0.2071, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2071, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 691587, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:26.842Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "skill_score": 41.5, "opportunity_score": 53.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3199, "model_under_probability": 0.6801, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5428, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4572, "edge_over": -0.2564, "edge_under": 0.1947, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1947, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 691587, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:32.858Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "skill_score": 41.5, "opportunity_score": 53.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3199, "model_under_probability": 0.6801, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.2491, "edge_under": 0.1899, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1899, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 691587, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:57:54.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 125, "under_odds": -165, "expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "skill_score": 41.5, "opportunity_score": 53.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 43.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.202, "model_under_probability": 0.798, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4165, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5835, "edge_over": -0.2424, "edge_under": 0.1754, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1754, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.073, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:26.842Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 123, "under_odds": -157, "expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "skill_score": 9.3, "opportunity_score": 57.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2879, "model_under_probability": 0.7121, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4484, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6109, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4233, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5767, "edge_over": -0.1605, "edge_under": 0.1012, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1012, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "JP Sears", "pitcher_id": 676664, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:32.858Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "skill_score": 12.6, "opportunity_score": 29.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 75.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5825, "model_under_probability": 0.4175, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4628, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5372, "edge_over": 0.0923, "edge_under": -0.1515, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0923, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.014, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31855.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:26.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "skill_score": 9.3, "opportunity_score": 57.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4584, "model_under_probability": 0.5416, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.157, "edge_under": 0.0871, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0871, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:32.858Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 134, "under_odds": -172, "expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "skill_score": 9.3, "opportunity_score": 57.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 31.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2879, "model_under_probability": 0.7121, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6324, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4033, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5967, "edge_over": -0.1395, "edge_under": 0.0797, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0797, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:32.858Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 57.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4222, "model_under_probability": 0.5778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5187, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4813, "edge_over": -0.1273, "edge_under": 0.068, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.068, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.075, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 88.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:26.842Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 57.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4222, "model_under_probability": 0.5778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5203, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4797, "edge_over": -0.1334, "edge_under": 0.0656, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0656, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.075, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 88.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "JP Sears", "pitcher_id": 676664, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:26.842Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -107, "under_odds": -119, "expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "skill_score": 12.6, "opportunity_score": 29.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 75.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5825, "model_under_probability": 0.4175, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5169, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5434, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4875, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5125, "edge_over": 0.0656, "edge_under": -0.1259, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0656, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.014, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31855.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.44, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "pitcher_id": 665871, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:32.858Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "skill_score": 5.3, "opportunity_score": 34.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.657, "model_under_probability": 0.343, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": 0.0602, "edge_under": -0.12, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0602, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:26.842Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -124, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5705, "model_under_probability": 0.4295, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5536, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4806, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5194, "edge_over": 0.0583, "edge_under": -0.1241, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0583, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "pitcher_id": 665871, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:26.000Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "skill_score": 5.3, "opportunity_score": 34.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.657, "model_under_probability": 0.343, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": 0.057, "edge_under": -0.1332, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.057, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "pitcher_id": 665871, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:26.842Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -163, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "skill_score": 5.3, "opportunity_score": 34.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.657, "model_under_probability": 0.343, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5877, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4123, "edge_over": 0.0372, "edge_under": -0.0918, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0372, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:35.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 57.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4222, "model_under_probability": 0.5778, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.1016, "edge_under": 0.0323, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0323, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.075, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.92, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 88.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:32.858Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 13.8, "opportunity_score": 36.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 65.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5175, "model_under_probability": 0.4825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": 0.0225, "edge_under": -0.0827, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0225, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:40.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 13.8, "opportunity_score": 36.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 65.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5175, "model_under_probability": 0.4825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": 0.0175, "edge_under": -0.092, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0175, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:26.842Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -124, "expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "skill_score": 13.8, "opportunity_score": 36.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 65.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5175, "model_under_probability": 0.4825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5536, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.477, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.523, "edge_over": 0.0125, "edge_under": -0.0711, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0125, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.8, "wind_speed_mph": 4.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:32.858Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -162, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 12.6, "opportunity_score": 40.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 66.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6298, "model_under_probability": 0.3702, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5829, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4171, "edge_over": 0.0115, "edge_under": -0.0723, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0115, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 88.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:26.842Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -164, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 12.6, "opportunity_score": 40.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 66.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6298, "model_under_probability": 0.3702, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6212, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5819, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4181, "edge_over": 0.0086, "edge_under": -0.0762, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0086, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 88.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:35.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -165, "under_odds": 125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 12.6, "opportunity_score": 40.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 66.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6298, "model_under_probability": 0.3702, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5835, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4165, "edge_over": 0.0072, "edge_under": -0.0742, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0072, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.041, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 88.5, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:32.858Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 122, "under_odds": -156, "expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "skill_score": 24.8, "opportunity_score": 50.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3906, "model_under_probability": 0.6094, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.575, "edge_over": -0.0599, "edge_under": 0.0, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:55.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "skill_score": 24.8, "opportunity_score": 50.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3906, "model_under_probability": 0.6094, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": -0.0639, "edge_under": -0.006, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.006, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:26.842Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "skill_score": 24.8, "opportunity_score": 50.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3906, "model_under_probability": 0.6094, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4183, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5817, "edge_over": -0.0519, "edge_under": -0.006, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.006, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.072, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.6, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 1.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:57:59.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 28.2, "opportunity_score": 44.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5207, "model_under_probability": 0.4793, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0142, "edge_under": -0.0556, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0142, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.6, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.139, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:32.858Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 28.2, "opportunity_score": 44.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5207, "model_under_probability": 0.4793, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4711, "edge_over": -0.0407, "edge_under": -0.0207, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0207, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.6, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.139, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sonny Gray", "pitcher_id": 543243, "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:26.842Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.9, "skill_score": 28.2, "opportunity_score": 44.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5207, "model_under_probability": 0.4793, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5187, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4813, "edge_over": -0.0288, "edge_under": -0.0305, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0288, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.6, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.139, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31976.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.5, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Robbie Ray", "pitcher_id": 592662, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-07-30T11:58:18.855Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.23, "skill_score": 10.3, "opportunity_score": 54.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 34.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5705, "model_under_probability": 0.4295, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.0295, "edge_under": -0.0467, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0295, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17890.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.9, "wind_speed_mph": 1.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Miller", "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Rhett Lowder", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane McClanahan", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Yohan Ram\u00edrez", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }