{ "date": "2026-08-01", "generated_at": "2026-08-02T00:11:22.896329", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-08-01", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 65, "matched_count": 37, "unmatched_count": 28 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 37, "grouped_pitcher_count": 13, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 37, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:19.184Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 27.7, "opportunity_score": 39.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2679, "model_under_probability": 0.7321, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5428, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4572, "edge_over": -0.3084, "edge_under": 0.2467, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2467, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Rasmussen", "pitcher_id": 656876, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:13.251Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 101, "expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.25, "skill_score": 27.7, "opportunity_score": 39.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 62.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2679, "model_under_probability": 0.7321, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4975, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5319, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4681, "edge_over": -0.2973, "edge_under": 0.2346, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2346, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14022.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:13.251Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -116, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.36, "skill_score": 59.5, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3042, "model_under_probability": 0.6958, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.537, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5062, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4938, "edge_over": -0.2328, "edge_under": 0.172, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.172, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:19.184Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 5.36, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.36, "skill_score": 59.5, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3042, "model_under_probability": 0.6958, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4761, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5239, "edge_over": -0.2008, "edge_under": 0.1402, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1402, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.4, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "pitcher_id": 650911, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:13.251Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 109, "under_odds": -143, "expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.99, "skill_score": 63.0, "opportunity_score": 70.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 20.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2737, "model_under_probability": 0.7263, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4785, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5885, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4485, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5515, "edge_over": -0.2048, "edge_under": 0.1378, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1378, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:53:30.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "skill_score": 16.6, "opportunity_score": 52.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2876, "model_under_probability": 0.7124, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.2002, "edge_under": 0.1291, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1291, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.093, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:19.184Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -166, "under_odds": 128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "skill_score": 16.6, "opportunity_score": 52.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4358, "model_under_probability": 0.5642, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5873, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4127, "edge_over": -0.1883, "edge_under": 0.1256, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1256, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.093, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "pitcher_id": 650911, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:53:21.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.99, "skill_score": 63.0, "opportunity_score": 70.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 20.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.391, "model_under_probability": 0.609, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.1923, "edge_under": 0.1212, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1212, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:09.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 3.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "skill_score": 15.2, "opportunity_score": 28.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 79.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3054, "model_under_probability": 0.6946, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.1946, "edge_under": 0.1201, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1201, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:13.251Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "skill_score": 16.6, "opportunity_score": 52.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2876, "model_under_probability": 0.7124, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4369, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5631, "edge_over": -0.1754, "edge_under": 0.1156, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1156, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.093, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "pitcher_id": 650911, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:19.184Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 5.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.99, "skill_score": 63.0, "opportunity_score": 70.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 20.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2737, "model_under_probability": 0.7263, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5784, "edge_over": -0.1727, "edge_under": 0.1139, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1139, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:13.251Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 117, "under_odds": -149, "expected_strikeouts": 3.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "skill_score": 15.2, "opportunity_score": 28.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 79.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3054, "model_under_probability": 0.6946, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4608, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5984, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.435, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.565, "edge_over": -0.1554, "edge_under": 0.0962, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0962, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:19.184Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 128, "under_odds": -164, "expected_strikeouts": 3.63, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "skill_score": 15.2, "opportunity_score": 28.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 79.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3054, "model_under_probability": 0.6946, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6212, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4139, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5861, "edge_over": -0.1332, "edge_under": 0.0734, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0734, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:19.184Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 84.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 6.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3814, "model_under_probability": 0.6186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4761, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5239, "edge_over": -0.1236, "edge_under": 0.063, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.063, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:13.251Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 101, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 84.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 6.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3814, "model_under_probability": 0.6186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4975, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4698, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5302, "edge_over": -0.1161, "edge_under": 0.0572, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0572, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:53:21.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "skill_score": 20.2, "opportunity_score": 61.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4165, "model_under_probability": 0.5835, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1184, "edge_under": 0.0486, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0486, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:13.251Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 109, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "skill_score": 32.5, "opportunity_score": 60.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5183, "model_under_probability": 0.4817, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4785, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4536, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5464, "edge_over": 0.0398, "edge_under": -0.0946, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0398, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.001, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:19.184Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -138, "expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "skill_score": 32.5, "opportunity_score": 60.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5183, "model_under_probability": 0.4817, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4533, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5467, "edge_over": 0.0375, "edge_under": -0.0981, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0375, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.001, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:13.251Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "skill_score": 20.2, "opportunity_score": 61.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4165, "model_under_probability": 0.5835, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4737, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5263, "edge_over": -0.0835, "edge_under": 0.0279, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0279, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:55:00.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -145, "expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.87, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "skill_score": 32.4, "opportunity_score": 84.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 6.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3814, "model_under_probability": 0.6186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4518, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5482, "edge_over": -0.1064, "edge_under": 0.0268, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0268, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:19.184Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 6.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.46, "skill_score": 49.9, "opportunity_score": 69.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 27.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4545, "model_under_probability": 0.5455, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5104, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4896, "edge_over": -0.0868, "edge_under": 0.0263, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0263, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:13.251Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 6.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.46, "skill_score": 49.9, "opportunity_score": 69.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 27.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4545, "model_under_probability": 0.5455, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5052, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4948, "edge_over": -0.0804, "edge_under": 0.0217, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0217, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:19.184Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 39.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 65.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5632, "model_under_probability": 0.4368, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5187, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4813, "edge_over": 0.0137, "edge_under": -0.073, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0137, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.61, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.133, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:15.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 6.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.46, "skill_score": 49.9, "opportunity_score": 69.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 27.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4545, "model_under_probability": 0.5455, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0804, "edge_under": 0.0106, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0106, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.995, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:52:24.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "skill_score": 32.5, "opportunity_score": 60.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5183, "model_under_probability": 0.4817, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": 0.0061, "edge_under": -0.0739, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0061, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.001, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "pitcher_id": 663372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:13.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "skill_score": 21.0, "opportunity_score": 32.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5292, "model_under_probability": 0.4708, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.0786, "edge_under": 0.0057, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0057, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:13.251Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -127, "under_odds": -103, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 39.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 65.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5632, "model_under_probability": 0.4368, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5074, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5244, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4756, "edge_over": 0.0037, "edge_under": -0.0706, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0037, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.61, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.133, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Baz", "pitcher_id": 669358, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:19.184Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "skill_score": 20.2, "opportunity_score": 61.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4165, "model_under_probability": 0.5835, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4495, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5505, "edge_over": -0.0597, "edge_under": 0.0002, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0002, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.039, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18414.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:13.251Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.06, "skill_score": 7.0, "opportunity_score": 40.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5555, "model_under_probability": 0.4445, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5795, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4205, "edge_over": -0.0569, "edge_under": 0.0001, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0001, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "pitcher_id": 663372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:19.184Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -142, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "skill_score": 21.0, "opportunity_score": 32.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5292, "model_under_probability": 0.4708, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5544, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4456, "edge_over": -0.0576, "edge_under": -0.0009, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0009, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:19.184Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 4.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.06, "skill_score": 7.0, "opportunity_score": 40.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5555, "model_under_probability": 0.4445, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5796, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4204, "edge_over": -0.0599, "edge_under": -0.0019, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0019, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Mahle", "pitcher_id": 641816, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:09.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 125, "under_odds": -165, "expected_strikeouts": 4.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.06, "skill_score": 7.0, "opportunity_score": 40.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.3, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3808, "model_under_probability": 0.6192, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4165, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5835, "edge_over": -0.0636, "edge_under": -0.0034, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0034, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9084.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.23, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Feltner", "pitcher_id": 663372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:13.251Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -139, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.8, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.91, "skill_score": 21.0, "opportunity_score": 32.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 82.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5292, "model_under_probability": 0.4708, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5816, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5474, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4526, "edge_over": -0.0524, "edge_under": -0.01, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.01, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15246.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Framber Valdez", "pitcher_id": 664285, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:27.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.18, "skill_score": 11.3, "opportunity_score": 39.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 65.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5632, "model_under_probability": 0.4368, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.0113, "edge_under": -0.0632, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0113, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.61, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.133, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33697.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "pitcher_id": 656849, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:13.251Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 117, "expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "skill_score": 8.2, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5528, "model_under_probability": 0.4472, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4608, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5656, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4344, "edge_over": -0.0472, "edge_under": -0.0136, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0136, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.76, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 69.6, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "pitcher_id": 656849, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:19.184Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "skill_score": 8.2, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5528, "model_under_probability": 0.4472, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": -0.044, "edge_under": -0.0158, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0158, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.76, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 69.6, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "David Peterson", "pitcher_id": 656849, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-01T11:54:51.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "skill_score": 8.2, "opportunity_score": 33.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 64.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5528, "model_under_probability": 0.4472, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.0217, "edge_under": -0.0528, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0217, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.76, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 69.6, "wind_speed_mph": 15.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jack Perkins", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jos\u00e9 Soriano", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Luinder Avila", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Luinder Avila", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Luinder Avila", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Parker Messick", "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Reynaldo L\u00f3pez", "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zach Thornton", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zach Thornton", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }