{ "date": "2026-08-02", "generated_at": "2026-08-02T23:52:34.050726", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-08-02", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 73, "matched_count": 50, "unmatched_count": 23 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 50, "grouped_pitcher_count": 18, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 50, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:24.229Z", "line": 9.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -121, "expected_strikeouts": 6.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.19, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 46.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 55.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1309, "model_under_probability": 0.8691, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5475, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4833, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5167, "edge_over": -0.3813, "edge_under": 0.3216, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3216, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:24.229Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -167, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 3.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.04, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "skill_score": 29.7, "opportunity_score": 34.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2499, "model_under_probability": 0.7501, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6255, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4101, "edge_over": -0.3756, "edge_under": 0.3153, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3153, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 87.4, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:28.977Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 3.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.04, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "skill_score": 29.7, "opportunity_score": 34.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2499, "model_under_probability": 0.7501, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5784, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4216, "edge_over": -0.3625, "edge_under": 0.3037, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3037, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 87.4, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:28.977Z", "line": 9.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 6.19, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.19, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 46.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 55.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1309, "model_under_probability": 0.8691, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5428, "edge_over": -0.3545, "edge_under": 0.2928, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2928, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:55:41.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 3.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.04, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "skill_score": 29.7, "opportunity_score": 34.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 60.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1365, "model_under_probability": 0.8635, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.3286, "edge_under": 0.2557, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2557, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 25.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 87.4, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:24.229Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -174, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 83.6, "opportunity_score": 60.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 24.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3069, "model_under_probability": 0.6931, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.635, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5872, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4128, "edge_over": -0.3281, "edge_under": 0.2467, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2467, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.911, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:28.977Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 83.6, "opportunity_score": 60.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 24.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3069, "model_under_probability": 0.6931, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5784, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4216, "edge_over": -0.3055, "edge_under": 0.2467, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2467, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.911, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:29.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "skill_score": 50.9, "opportunity_score": 67.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2878, "model_under_probability": 0.7122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.2867, "edge_under": 0.2122, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2122, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:03.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 83.6, "opportunity_score": 60.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 24.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2014, "model_under_probability": 0.7986, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.2748, "edge_under": 0.1986, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1986, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.911, "aggregate_matchup_score": 38.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.55, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:24.229Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -173, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 3.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "skill_score": 25.8, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 59.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3634, "model_under_probability": 0.6366, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6337, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5867, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4133, "edge_over": -0.2703, "edge_under": 0.1902, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1902, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 94.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:24.229Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -114, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "skill_score": 50.9, "opportunity_score": 67.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2878, "model_under_probability": 0.7122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5021, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4979, "edge_over": -0.2449, "edge_under": 0.1839, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1839, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:28.977Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 3.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "skill_score": 25.8, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 59.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3634, "model_under_probability": 0.6366, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5715, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4285, "edge_over": -0.2429, "edge_under": 0.1821, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1821, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 94.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:28.977Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.24, "skill_score": 50.9, "opportunity_score": 67.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2878, "model_under_probability": 0.7122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.2383, "edge_under": 0.1773, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1773, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:27.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 3.96, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.96, "skill_score": 25.8, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.6, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 59.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3634, "model_under_probability": 0.6366, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.2111, "edge_under": 0.1366, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1366, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 94.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:55:55.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 6.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.9, "skill_score": 83.6, "opportunity_score": 56.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 39.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3872, "model_under_probability": 0.6128, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.1961, "edge_under": 0.125, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.125, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.51, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.37, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "pitcher_id": 694738, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:24.229Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.26, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 7.3, "opportunity_score": 46.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 42.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.412, "model_under_probability": 0.588, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4428, "edge_over": -0.1815, "edge_under": 0.1163, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1163, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:24.229Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -163, "under_odds": 127, "expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "skill_score": 38.6, "opportunity_score": 38.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.4, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 62.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4448, "model_under_probability": 0.5552, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6198, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4405, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5846, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4154, "edge_over": -0.175, "edge_under": 0.1147, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1147, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.69, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:24.229Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -126, "under_odds": -101, "expected_strikeouts": 6.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.9, "skill_score": 83.6, "opportunity_score": 56.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 39.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3872, "model_under_probability": 0.6128, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5025, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5259, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4741, "edge_over": -0.1703, "edge_under": 0.1103, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1103, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.51, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.37, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "pitcher_id": 694738, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:28.977Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.26, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 7.3, "opportunity_score": 46.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 42.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.412, "model_under_probability": 0.588, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5467, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4533, "edge_over": -0.1678, "edge_under": 0.1072, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1072, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.994, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.35, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 71.8, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:28.977Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -156, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "skill_score": 38.6, "opportunity_score": 38.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.4, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 62.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4448, "model_under_probability": 0.5552, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.425, "edge_over": -0.1646, "edge_under": 0.1047, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1047, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.69, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "pitcher_id": 607067, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:24.229Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -169, "under_odds": 127, "expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.5, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 44.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.456, "model_under_probability": 0.544, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6283, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4405, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5879, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4121, "edge_over": -0.1723, "edge_under": 0.1035, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1035, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:24.229Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 107, "expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "skill_score": 46.3, "opportunity_score": 43.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 59.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4165, "model_under_probability": 0.5835, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4831, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.544, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.456, "edge_over": -0.1598, "edge_under": 0.1004, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1004, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:28.977Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 16.6, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 40.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5513, "model_under_probability": 0.4487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": 0.0926, "edge_under": -0.1513, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0926, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 99.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Wheeler", "pitcher_id": 554430, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:28.977Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 6.9, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.9, "skill_score": 83.6, "opportunity_score": 56.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.3, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 39.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3872, "model_under_probability": 0.6128, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.1389, "edge_under": 0.0779, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0779, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.51, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33971.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.37, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:29.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.73, "skill_score": 27.8, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.323, "model_under_probability": 0.677, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.1532, "edge_under": 0.077, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.077, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.93, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 99.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:42.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -175, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 39.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 66.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2891, "model_under_probability": 0.7109, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6364, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4059, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5941, "edge_over": -0.1457, "edge_under": 0.0745, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0745, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emmet Sheehan", "pitcher_id": 686218, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:28.977Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.22, "skill_score": 46.3, "opportunity_score": 43.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 59.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4165, "model_under_probability": 0.5835, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5187, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4813, "edge_over": -0.133, "edge_under": 0.0737, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0737, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7433.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.2, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:55:28.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 140, "under_odds": -190, "expected_strikeouts": 3.46, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.45, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.46, "skill_score": 38.6, "opportunity_score": 38.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.4, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 62.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2757, "model_under_probability": 0.7243, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4167, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6552, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.3887, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.6113, "edge_over": -0.141, "edge_under": 0.0691, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0691, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.003, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.69, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:24.229Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -133, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 39.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 66.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4375, "model_under_probability": 0.5625, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5708, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5356, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4644, "edge_over": -0.1333, "edge_under": 0.0675, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0675, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:03.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 16.5, "opportunity_score": 54.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6003, "model_under_probability": 0.3997, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": 0.0654, "edge_under": -0.1352, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0654, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Keller", "pitcher_id": 656605, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:28.977Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 15.7, "opportunity_score": 39.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 66.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4375, "model_under_probability": 0.5625, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4711, "edge_over": -0.1239, "edge_under": 0.0625, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0625, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35103.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 2.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "pitcher_id": 607067, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:28.977Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 134, "under_odds": -172, "expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.5, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 44.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.306, "model_under_probability": 0.694, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6324, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4033, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5967, "edge_over": -0.1214, "edge_under": 0.0616, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0616, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Colin Rea", "pitcher_id": 607067, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:32.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.5, "skill_score": 12.4, "opportunity_score": 44.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 45.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.456, "model_under_probability": 0.544, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5482, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4518, "edge_over": -0.1358, "edge_under": 0.0562, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0562, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.052, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26562.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 11.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:28.977Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.73, "skill_score": 27.8, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.323, "model_under_probability": 0.677, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4106, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5894, "edge_over": -0.1118, "edge_under": 0.0529, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0529, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.93, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 99.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T10:30:50.021Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 131, "under_odds": -168, "expected_strikeouts": 3.73, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.73, "skill_score": 27.8, "opportunity_score": 50.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.323, "model_under_probability": 0.677, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4329, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6269, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4085, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5915, "edge_over": -0.1099, "edge_under": 0.0501, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0501, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.93, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 99.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:24.229Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -195, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 16.6, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 40.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7095, "model_under_probability": 0.2905, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.661, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.6032, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.3968, "edge_over": 0.0485, "edge_under": -0.1443, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0485, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 99.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:28.977Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 16.5, "opportunity_score": 54.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6003, "model_under_probability": 0.3997, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5331, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4669, "edge_over": 0.0351, "edge_under": -0.0953, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0351, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Merrill Kelly", "pitcher_id": 518876, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:24.229Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 103, "expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.33, "skill_score": 16.5, "opportunity_score": 54.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6003, "model_under_probability": 0.3997, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4926, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.536, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.464, "edge_over": 0.0313, "edge_under": -0.0929, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0313, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.35, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 27142.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.9, "wind_speed_mph": 11.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "pitcher_id": 645261, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:24.229Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -149, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 16.8, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 5.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5144, "model_under_probability": 0.4856, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5984, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5615, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4385, "edge_over": -0.084, "edge_under": 0.0183, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0183, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:28.977Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -118, "expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.05, "skill_score": 5.4, "opportunity_score": 59.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5361, "model_under_probability": 0.4639, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4896, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5104, "edge_over": 0.0169, "edge_under": -0.0774, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0169, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:29.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.73, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.1, "skill_score": 16.6, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 40.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5513, "model_under_probability": 0.4487, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": 0.0164, "edge_under": -0.0862, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0164, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.37, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 99.0, "wind_speed_mph": 9.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:24.229Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -116, "expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.05, "skill_score": 5.4, "opportunity_score": 59.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5361, "model_under_probability": 0.4639, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.537, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4938, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5062, "edge_over": 0.0123, "edge_under": -0.0731, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0123, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "pitcher_id": 672456, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:28.977Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 3.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.4, "skill_score": 13.9, "opportunity_score": 53.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4331, "model_under_probability": 0.5669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4711, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5289, "edge_over": -0.0669, "edge_under": 0.0055, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0055, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 91.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:55:55.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.86, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.05, "skill_score": 5.4, "opportunity_score": 59.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5361, "model_under_probability": 0.4639, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.0094, "edge_under": -0.0599, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0094, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.032, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.3, "wind_speed_mph": 9.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "pitcher_id": 645261, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:55:57.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 135, "under_odds": -185, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 16.8, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 5.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3615, "model_under_probability": 0.6385, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4255, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6491, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.396, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.604, "edge_over": -0.064, "edge_under": -0.0106, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0106, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "pitcher_id": 645261, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:28.977Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 16.8, "opportunity_score": 83.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 5.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5144, "model_under_probability": 0.4856, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4711, "edge_over": -0.047, "edge_under": -0.0144, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0144, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.9, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:28.977Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.74, "skill_score": 33.2, "opportunity_score": 60.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.493, "model_under_probability": 0.507, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0375, "edge_under": -0.0235, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0235, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.76, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "pitcher_id": 672456, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:24.229Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 119, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 3.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.4, "skill_score": 13.9, "opportunity_score": 53.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 45.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4331, "model_under_probability": 0.5669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4566, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4321, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5679, "edge_over": -0.0235, "edge_under": -0.0331, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0235, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.31, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 91.2, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:29.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.74, "skill_score": 33.2, "opportunity_score": 60.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.493, "model_under_probability": 0.507, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0419, "edge_under": -0.0279, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0279, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.76, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-02T11:56:24.229Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -114, "under_odds": -116, "expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.74, "skill_score": 33.2, "opportunity_score": 60.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.493, "model_under_probability": 0.507, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.537, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.498, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.502, "edge_over": -0.0397, "edge_under": -0.03, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.03, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.76, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }