{ "date": "2026-08-03", "generated_at": "2026-08-04T00:07:35.137682", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-08-03", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 39, "matched_count": 30, "unmatched_count": 9 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 30, "grouped_pitcher_count": 11, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 30, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:59:05.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 2.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.83, "skill_score": 6.0, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 52.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3172, "model_under_probability": 0.6828, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": -0.2982, "edge_under": 0.2283, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2283, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:47.119Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 123, "under_odds": -157, "expected_strikeouts": 2.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.83, "skill_score": 6.0, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 52.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.171, "model_under_probability": 0.829, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4484, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6109, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4233, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5767, "edge_over": -0.2774, "edge_under": 0.2181, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2181, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:52.193Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 2.83, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.83, "skill_score": 6.0, "opportunity_score": 46.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 52.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.171, "model_under_probability": 0.829, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4106, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5894, "edge_over": -0.2638, "edge_under": 0.2049, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2049, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.095, "aggregate_matchup_score": 22.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:52.193Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 60.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3951, "model_under_probability": 0.6049, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5796, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4204, "edge_over": -0.2203, "edge_under": 0.1585, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1585, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:52.193Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 136, "under_odds": -174, "expected_strikeouts": 4.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "skill_score": 8.1, "opportunity_score": 41.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5674, "model_under_probability": 0.4326, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4237, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.635, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4002, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5998, "edge_over": 0.1437, "edge_under": -0.2024, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1437, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 15.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:47.119Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 135, "under_odds": -173, "expected_strikeouts": 4.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "skill_score": 8.1, "opportunity_score": 41.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5674, "model_under_probability": 0.4326, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4255, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6337, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4017, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5983, "edge_over": 0.1419, "edge_under": -0.2011, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1419, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 15.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:59:05.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 60.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3951, "model_under_probability": 0.6049, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.2049, "edge_under": 0.1287, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1287, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:47.119Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -180, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 60.4, "opportunity_score": 62.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.2, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 30.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3951, "model_under_probability": 0.6049, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6429, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5721, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4279, "edge_over": -0.2478, "edge_under": 0.1241, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1241, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.006, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.83, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 4.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:57:06.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 4.13, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.13, "skill_score": 8.1, "opportunity_score": 41.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 59.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5674, "model_under_probability": 0.4326, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": 0.1023, "edge_under": -0.1752, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1023, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.5, "wind_speed_mph": 15.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "pitcher_id": 669456, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:30.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 135, "under_odds": -185, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 5.9, "opportunity_score": 22.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 84.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5081, "model_under_probability": 0.4919, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4255, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6491, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.396, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.604, "edge_over": 0.0826, "edge_under": -0.1572, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0826, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.053, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "pitcher_id": 669456, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:52.193Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 5.9, "opportunity_score": 22.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 84.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.673, "model_under_probability": 0.327, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5715, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4285, "edge_over": 0.0667, "edge_under": -0.1275, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0667, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.053, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "pitcher_id": 664299, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:47.119Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -156, "under_odds": 121, "expected_strikeouts": 3.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.78, "skill_score": 6.3, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5056, "model_under_probability": 0.4944, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4525, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5739, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4261, "edge_over": -0.1038, "edge_under": 0.0419, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0419, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "pitcher_id": 664299, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:52.193Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 3.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.78, "skill_score": 6.3, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5056, "model_under_probability": 0.4944, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5715, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4285, "edge_over": -0.1007, "edge_under": 0.0399, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0399, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "pitcher_id": 669456, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:47.119Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -174, "under_odds": 134, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 5.9, "opportunity_score": 22.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 84.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.673, "model_under_probability": 0.327, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.635, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4274, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5977, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4023, "edge_over": 0.038, "edge_under": -0.1004, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.038, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.053, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.31, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cal Quantrill", "pitcher_id": 615698, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:32.105Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 3.43, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.43, "skill_score": 8.4, "opportunity_score": 18.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 94.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6398, "model_under_probability": 0.3602, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": 0.0244, "edge_under": -0.0943, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0244, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25722.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.0, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "pitcher_id": 664299, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:30.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 135, "under_odds": -185, "expected_strikeouts": 3.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.78, "skill_score": 6.3, "opportunity_score": 15.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3318, "model_under_probability": 0.6682, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4255, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6491, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.396, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.604, "edge_over": -0.0937, "edge_under": 0.0191, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0191, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.099, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.53, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "pitcher_id": 694297, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:47.119Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.54, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 51.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 43.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4627, "model_under_probability": 0.5373, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5784, "edge_over": 0.0163, "edge_under": -0.0751, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0163, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "pitcher_id": 694297, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:52.193Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.54, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 51.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 43.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4627, "model_under_probability": 0.5373, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5784, "edge_over": 0.0163, "edge_under": -0.0751, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0163, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:05.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 33.8, "opportunity_score": 58.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5112, "model_under_probability": 0.4888, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": 0.0112, "edge_under": -0.0857, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0112, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:47.119Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 61.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 23.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6073, "model_under_probability": 0.3927, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": 0.0105, "edge_under": -0.0703, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0105, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "pitcher_id": 694297, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:05.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.54, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 51.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 43.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4627, "model_under_probability": 0.5373, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": 0.0082, "edge_under": -0.0781, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0082, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.019, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "pitcher_id": 571510, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:47.119Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -169, "under_odds": 123, "expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "skill_score": 14.9, "opportunity_score": 57.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 43.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5498, "model_under_probability": 0.4502, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6283, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4484, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5835, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4165, "edge_over": -0.0785, "edge_under": 0.0018, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0018, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:52.193Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -162, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 61.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 23.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6073, "model_under_probability": 0.3927, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5829, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4171, "edge_over": -0.011, "edge_under": -0.0498, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.011, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.035, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:47.119Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -119, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 33.8, "opportunity_score": 58.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5112, "model_under_probability": 0.4888, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5434, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4908, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5092, "edge_over": -0.0126, "edge_under": -0.0546, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0126, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:47.119Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 109, "under_odds": -139, "expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "skill_score": 43.2, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.433, "model_under_probability": 0.567, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4785, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5816, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4514, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5486, "edge_over": -0.0455, "edge_under": -0.0146, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0146, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:52.193Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 33.8, "opportunity_score": 58.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5112, "model_under_probability": 0.4888, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.0149, "edge_under": -0.0461, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0149, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:40.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "skill_score": 43.2, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.433, "model_under_probability": 0.567, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.0548, "edge_under": -0.0163, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0163, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:50.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "skill_score": 14.7, "opportunity_score": 61.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 23.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout 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"pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 87.6, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "pitcher_id": 571510, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:45.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.09, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.09, "skill_score": 14.9, "opportunity_score": 57.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 43.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5498, "model_under_probability": 0.4502, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.0247, "edge_under": -0.0498, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0247, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.956, "aggregate_matchup_score": 39.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 65.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-03T11:58:52.193Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "skill_score": 43.2, "opportunity_score": 56.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.433, "model_under_probability": 0.567, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4405, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5595, "edge_over": -0.0343, "edge_under": -0.0265, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0265, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.005, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.33, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Sproat", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }