{ "date": "2026-08-04", "generated_at": "2026-08-05T00:25:41.897266", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-08-04", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 68, "matched_count": 44, "unmatched_count": 24 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 44, "grouped_pitcher_count": 15, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 44, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:55:32.000Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 6.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "skill_score": 67.0, "opportunity_score": 68.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 21.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3046, "model_under_probability": 0.6954, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.2409, "edge_under": 0.1716, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1716, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:29.980Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 6.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "skill_score": 67.0, "opportunity_score": 68.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 21.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3046, "model_under_probability": 0.6954, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.2259, "edge_under": 0.1649, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1649, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:24.795Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -112, "under_odds": -114, "expected_strikeouts": 6.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.24, "skill_score": 67.0, "opportunity_score": 68.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 21.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3046, "model_under_probability": 0.6954, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4979, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5021, "edge_over": -0.2237, "edge_under": 0.1627, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1627, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:24.795Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -162, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.16, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 37.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3982, "model_under_probability": 0.6018, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5807, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4193, "edge_over": -0.2201, "edge_under": 0.1554, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1554, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.972, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:29.980Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 122, "under_odds": -156, "expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.16, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 37.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2543, "model_under_probability": 0.7457, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.575, "edge_over": -0.1962, "edge_under": 0.1363, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1363, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.972, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:12.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.16, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 37.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3982, "model_under_probability": 0.6018, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.2018, "edge_under": 0.1256, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1256, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.972, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 65.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.7, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:19.000Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "skill_score": 42.4, "opportunity_score": 46.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 53.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3814, "model_under_probability": 0.6186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.1931, "edge_under": 0.1186, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1186, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.972, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 90.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:29.980Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "skill_score": 42.4, "opportunity_score": 46.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 53.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3814, "model_under_probability": 0.6186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.1447, "edge_under": 0.0837, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0837, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.972, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 90.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:29.980Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -170, "under_odds": 132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "skill_score": 30.7, "opportunity_score": 45.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4889, "model_under_probability": 0.5111, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6296, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.431, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5936, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4064, "edge_over": -0.1407, "edge_under": 0.0801, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0801, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.135, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:24.795Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -103, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 64.4, "opportunity_score": 33.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 80.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4134, "model_under_probability": 0.5866, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5074, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5227, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4773, "edge_over": -0.1422, "edge_under": 0.0792, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0792, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.972, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:24.795Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -116, "expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 47.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 44.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.386, "model_under_probability": 0.614, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.537, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4938, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5062, "edge_over": -0.1378, "edge_under": 0.077, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.077, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 0.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:24.795Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -123, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3756, "model_under_probability": 0.6244, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5516, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4803, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5197, "edge_over": -0.1342, "edge_under": 0.0728, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0728, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:24.795Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -186, "under_odds": 128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "skill_score": 30.7, "opportunity_score": 45.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4889, "model_under_probability": 0.5111, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6503, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5972, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4028, "edge_over": -0.1614, "edge_under": 0.0725, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0725, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.56, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.135, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.59, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:29.980Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 64.4, "opportunity_score": 33.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 80.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4134, "model_under_probability": 0.5866, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4854, "edge_over": -0.1321, "edge_under": 0.072, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.072, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.972, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:29.980Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 47.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 44.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.386, "model_under_probability": 0.614, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5146, "edge_over": -0.1286, "edge_under": 0.0685, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0685, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.955, "aggregate_matchup_score": 42.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 69.8, "wind_speed_mph": 0.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:24.795Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 10.6, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5857, "model_under_probability": 0.4143, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4926, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5074, "edge_over": 0.0665, "edge_under": -0.1206, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0665, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:29.980Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3756, "model_under_probability": 0.6244, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4711, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5289, "edge_over": -0.1244, "edge_under": 0.063, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.063, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.011, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.33, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:55:49.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.2, "skill_score": 64.4, "opportunity_score": 33.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 80.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4134, "model_under_probability": 0.5866, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.1321, "edge_under": 0.0628, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0628, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.972, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "MacKenzie Gore", "pitcher_id": 669022, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:24.795Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 5.92, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.92, "skill_score": 42.4, "opportunity_score": 46.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.9, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 53.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3814, "model_under_probability": 0.6186, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4694, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5306, "edge_over": -0.1186, "edge_under": 0.0534, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0534, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.972, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33452.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 90.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:37.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 10.6, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5857, "model_under_probability": 0.4143, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": 0.0508, "edge_under": -0.1206, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0508, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:29.980Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 4.24, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.24, "skill_score": 10.6, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5857, "model_under_probability": 0.4143, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": 0.0508, "edge_under": -0.1118, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0508, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.88, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:24.795Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 144, "under_odds": -165, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 7.0, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload 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"environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:29.980Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "skill_score": 14.5, "opportunity_score": 28.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 67.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5437, "model_under_probability": 0.4563, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": 0.0487, "edge_under": -0.1089, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0487, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:12.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 4.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.7, "skill_score": 30.7, "opportunity_score": 45.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": 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"pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:31.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.73, "skill_score": 34.6, "opportunity_score": 52.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 47.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4915, "model_under_probability": 0.5085, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.1163, "edge_under": 0.0434, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0434, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:25.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -145, "expected_strikeouts": 4.03, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.03, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 45.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than 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"canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:29.980Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 134, "under_odds": -172, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 7.0, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed 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"negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:55:32.000Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 5.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.02, "skill_score": 41.1, "opportunity_score": 47.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.0, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 44.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", 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"projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "pitcher_id": 681190, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:31.000Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 2.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.91, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 19.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 94.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", 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"starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:55:49.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 10.7, "opportunity_score": 60.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", 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"starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "pitcher_id": 681190, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:24.795Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -117, "expected_strikeouts": 2.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 2.91, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 19.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 94.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.539, "model_under_probability": 0.461, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5392, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4939, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5061, "edge_over": 0.0129, "edge_under": -0.0782, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0129, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.938, "aggregate_matchup_score": 11.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 2.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:24.795Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -114, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "skill_score": 14.5, "opportunity_score": 28.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 67.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5437, "model_under_probability": 0.4563, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5031, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4969, "edge_over": 0.011, "edge_under": -0.0698, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.011, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joe Ryan", "pitcher_id": 657746, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:29.980Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.73, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.73, "skill_score": 34.6, "opportunity_score": 52.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 47.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4915, "model_under_probability": 0.5085, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4711, "edge_over": -0.0699, "edge_under": 0.0085, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0085, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.07, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29998.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.64, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 83.8, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:31.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.52, "skill_score": 7.0, "opportunity_score": 62.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4593, "model_under_probability": 0.5407, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": 0.0048, "edge_under": -0.0747, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0048, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "pitcher_id": 665871, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:29.980Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 3.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.69, "skill_score": 9.9, "opportunity_score": 22.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 76.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4889, "model_under_probability": 0.5111, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4628, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5372, "edge_over": -0.0013, "edge_under": -0.0579, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0013, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:29.980Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 10.7, "opportunity_score": 60.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5081, "model_under_probability": 0.4919, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5331, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4669, "edge_over": -0.0571, "edge_under": -0.0031, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0031, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.082, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "pitcher_id": 665871, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:24.795Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 3.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.69, "skill_score": 9.9, "opportunity_score": 22.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 76.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4889, "model_under_probability": 0.5111, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": -0.0061, "edge_under": -0.0541, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0061, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:24.795Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -127, "under_odds": -101, "expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "skill_score": 35.0, "opportunity_score": 61.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5065, "model_under_probability": 0.4935, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5025, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5268, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4732, "edge_over": -0.053, "edge_under": -0.009, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.009, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.53, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.124, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:12.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "skill_score": 35.0, "opportunity_score": 61.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5065, "model_under_probability": 0.4935, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.0173, "edge_under": -0.052, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0173, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.53, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.124, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:37.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "skill_score": 14.5, "opportunity_score": 28.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 67.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5437, "model_under_probability": 0.4563, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5246, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4754, "edge_over": -0.0215, "edge_under": -0.0559, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0215, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 2.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Javier Assad", "pitcher_id": 665871, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:55:32.000Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 3.69, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.57, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.69, "skill_score": 9.9, "opportunity_score": 22.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.1, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 76.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4889, "model_under_probability": 0.5111, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.0233, "edge_under": -0.0445, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0233, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15298.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 6.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:29.980Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 4.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "skill_score": 35.0, "opportunity_score": 61.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.6, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 42.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5065, "model_under_probability": 0.4935, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5104, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4896, "edge_over": -0.0348, "edge_under": -0.0257, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0257, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.53, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.124, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 76.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-04T11:56:24.795Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.82, "skill_score": 10.7, "opportunity_score": 60.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5081, "model_under_probability": 0.4919, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5104, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4896, "edge_over": -0.0332, "edge_under": -0.0273, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0273, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.082, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.2, "wind_speed_mph": 3.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Gabriel Hughes", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gabriel Hughes", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gabriel Hughes", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Henderson", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Henderson", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Henderson", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Trey Yesavage", "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Zack Littell", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }