{ "date": "2026-08-08", "generated_at": "2026-08-09T00:24:51.692879", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v1_nb_overlay", "projection_date": "2026-08-08", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 82, "matched_count": 50, "unmatched_count": 32 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 50, "grouped_pitcher_count": 17, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 50, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:11.499Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 87.4, "opportunity_score": 67.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 22.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.198, "model_under_probability": 0.802, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4711, "edge_over": -0.3634, "edge_under": 0.302, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.302, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.97, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:44.201Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 87.4, "opportunity_score": 67.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 22.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.198, "model_under_probability": 0.802, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5264, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4736, "edge_over": -0.3634, "edge_under": 0.297, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.297, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.97, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:15.208Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.35, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.35, "skill_score": 87.4, "opportunity_score": 67.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 22.6, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.198, "model_under_probability": 0.802, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5246, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4754, "edge_over": -0.3672, "edge_under": 0.2898, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2898, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.97, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:44.201Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -134, "expected_strikeouts": 4.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.06, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 63.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2394, "model_under_probability": 0.7606, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4612, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5388, "edge_over": -0.2508, "edge_under": 0.188, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.188, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:44.201Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 6.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.53, "skill_score": 74.0, "opportunity_score": 49.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3409, "model_under_probability": 0.6591, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5585, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4415, "edge_over": -0.2559, "edge_under": 0.1874, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1874, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.075, "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.09, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:40.553Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 47.7, "opportunity_score": 48.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 54.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.253, "model_under_probability": 0.747, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.247, "edge_under": 0.1725, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1725, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 88.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:11.499Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -162, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 28.7, "opportunity_score": 74.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 14.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3921, "model_under_probability": 0.6079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5829, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4171, "edge_over": -0.2262, "edge_under": 0.1654, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1654, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:11.499Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 4.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.06, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 63.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2394, "model_under_probability": 0.7606, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4369, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5631, "edge_over": -0.2236, "edge_under": 0.1638, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1638, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:11.499Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 6.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.53, "skill_score": 74.0, "opportunity_score": 49.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3409, "model_under_probability": 0.6591, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4711, "edge_over": -0.2205, "edge_under": 0.1591, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1591, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.075, "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.09, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Liberatore", "pitcher_id": 669461, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:33.500Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.83, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.06, "skill_score": 34.3, "opportunity_score": 38.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 38.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 63.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3808, "model_under_probability": 0.6192, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.227, "edge_under": 0.1541, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1541, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.059, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 16017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:44.201Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -168, "under_odds": 119, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 28.7, "opportunity_score": 74.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 14.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3921, "model_under_probability": 0.6079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6269, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4566, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5786, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4214, "edge_over": -0.2348, "edge_under": 0.1513, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1513, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:44.201Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 117, "under_odds": -149, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 47.7, "opportunity_score": 48.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 54.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.253, "model_under_probability": 0.747, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4608, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5984, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.435, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.565, "edge_over": -0.2078, "edge_under": 0.1486, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1486, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 88.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Chris Sale", "pitcher_id": 519242, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:44.949Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 125, "under_odds": -165, "expected_strikeouts": 6.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.53, "skill_score": 74.0, "opportunity_score": 49.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 52.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 58.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2386, "model_under_probability": 0.7614, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4165, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5835, "edge_over": -0.2058, "edge_under": 0.1388, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1388, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.075, "aggregate_matchup_score": 74.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25945.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 7.09, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 81.5, "wind_speed_mph": 10.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:32.821Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.01, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 28.7, "opportunity_score": 74.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 14.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2634, "model_under_probability": 0.7366, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.2128, "edge_under": 0.1366, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1366, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.01, "aggregate_matchup_score": 49.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.9, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:11.499Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -162, "expected_strikeouts": 5.82, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.82, "skill_score": 47.7, "opportunity_score": 48.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 46.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 54.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.253, "model_under_probability": 0.747, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5829, "edge_over": -0.1895, "edge_under": 0.1287, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1287, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.043, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.05, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 88.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "pitcher_id": 694738, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:35.398Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 58.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3214, "model_under_probability": 0.6786, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.1664, "edge_under": 0.0953, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0953, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:44.201Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 103, "under_odds": -131, "expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.34, "skill_score": 37.1, "opportunity_score": 47.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 42.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5864, "model_under_probability": 0.4136, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4926, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5671, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4648, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5352, "edge_over": 0.0938, "edge_under": -0.1535, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0938, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:11.499Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.34, "skill_score": 37.1, "opportunity_score": 47.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 42.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5864, "model_under_probability": 0.4136, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": 0.0914, "edge_under": -0.1516, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0914, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:11.499Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 57.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6969, "model_under_probability": 0.3031, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5715, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4285, "edge_over": 0.0906, "edge_under": -0.1514, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0906, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "pitcher_id": 694297, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:57:03.555Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.54, "skill_score": 10.9, "opportunity_score": 52.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6328, "model_under_probability": 0.3672, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": 0.0873, "edge_under": -0.1566, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0873, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:44.201Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -162, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 57.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6969, "model_under_probability": 0.3031, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5829, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4171, "edge_over": 0.0786, "edge_under": -0.1394, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0786, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "pitcher_id": 694738, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:11.499Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 58.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4726, "model_under_probability": 0.5274, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5737, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4263, "edge_over": -0.1337, "edge_under": 0.0769, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0769, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "pitcher_id": 694297, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:44.201Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -127, "under_odds": -101, "expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.54, "skill_score": 10.9, "opportunity_score": 52.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6328, "model_under_probability": 0.3672, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5025, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5268, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4732, "edge_over": 0.0733, "edge_under": -0.1353, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0733, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Pfaadt", "pitcher_id": 694297, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:11.499Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.54, "skill_score": 10.9, "opportunity_score": 52.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6328, "model_under_probability": 0.3672, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4711, "edge_over": 0.0714, "edge_under": -0.1328, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0714, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.018, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30360.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Seth Lugo", "pitcher_id": 607625, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:34.770Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 5.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.11, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.0, "skill_score": 14.0, "opportunity_score": 57.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 35.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5361, "model_under_probability": 0.4639, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": 0.071, "edge_under": -0.1439, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.071, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.978, "aggregate_matchup_score": 41.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31476.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.89, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.1, "wind_speed_mph": 9.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "pitcher_id": 694738, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:44.201Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -178, "under_odds": 119, "expected_strikeouts": 4.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 58.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 37.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4726, "model_under_probability": 0.5274, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6403, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4566, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5837, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4163, "edge_over": -0.1677, "edge_under": 0.0708, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0708, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.67, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jackson Jobe", "pitcher_id": 695549, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:44.201Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -169, "under_odds": 130, "expected_strikeouts": 3.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "skill_score": 12.8, "opportunity_score": 48.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5001, "model_under_probability": 0.4999, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6283, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.591, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.409, "edge_over": -0.1282, "edge_under": 0.0651, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0651, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4385.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:57.854Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.34, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.34, "skill_score": 37.1, "opportunity_score": 47.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.3, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 42.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5864, "model_under_probability": 0.4136, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": 0.0626, "edge_under": -0.1319, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0626, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jackson Jobe", "pitcher_id": 695549, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:35.398Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 125, "under_odds": -165, "expected_strikeouts": 3.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "skill_score": 12.8, "opportunity_score": 48.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3265, "model_under_probability": 0.6735, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4165, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5835, "edge_over": -0.1179, "edge_under": 0.0509, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0509, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4385.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jackson Jobe", "pitcher_id": 695549, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:11.499Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 3.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.52, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "skill_score": 12.8, "opportunity_score": 48.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 56.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5001, "model_under_probability": 0.4999, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5667, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4333, "edge_over": -0.0999, "edge_under": 0.0412, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0412, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.066, "aggregate_matchup_score": 29.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4385.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.36, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 57.7, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:57:03.555Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.37, "skill_score": 27.8, "opportunity_score": 89.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 5.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.439, "model_under_probability": 0.561, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.1065, "edge_under": 0.0372, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0372, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "pitcher_id": 453286, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:44.201Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 107, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4908, "model_under_probability": 0.5092, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4831, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.547, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.453, "edge_over": -0.0925, "edge_under": 0.0261, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0261, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.124, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "pitcher_id": 645261, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:11.499Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "skill_score": 11.7, "opportunity_score": 84.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 5.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4553, "model_under_probability": 0.5447, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5104, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4896, "edge_over": -0.086, "edge_under": 0.0255, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0255, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "pitcher_id": 453286, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:57.854Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4908, "model_under_probability": 0.5092, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.0925, "edge_under": 0.0214, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0214, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.124, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "pitcher_id": 453286, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:11.499Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.7, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4908, "model_under_probability": 0.5092, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.0782, "edge_under": 0.019, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.019, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.41, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.124, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 6.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:11.499Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.37, "skill_score": 27.8, "opportunity_score": 89.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 5.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.439, "model_under_probability": 0.561, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5146, "edge_over": -0.0756, "edge_under": 0.0155, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0155, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "pitcher_id": 645261, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:44.201Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "skill_score": 11.7, "opportunity_score": 84.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 5.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4553, "model_under_probability": 0.5447, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5021, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4979, "edge_over": -0.0796, "edge_under": 0.0142, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0142, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:11.499Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "skill_score": 30.2, "opportunity_score": 62.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6087, "model_under_probability": 0.3913, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": 0.0119, "edge_under": -0.0717, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0119, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:11.499Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 140, "under_odds": -180, "expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.27, "skill_score": 30.8, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.424, "model_under_probability": 0.576, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4167, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6429, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.3933, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.6067, "edge_over": 0.0073, "edge_under": -0.0669, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0073, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Yoshinobu Yamamoto", "pitcher_id": 808967, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:44.201Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -101, "under_odds": -126, "expected_strikeouts": 5.37, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.49, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.37, "skill_score": 27.8, "opportunity_score": 89.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 5.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.439, "model_under_probability": 0.561, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5025, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5575, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4741, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5259, "edge_over": -0.0635, "edge_under": 0.0035, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0035, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 59.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19316.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:11.499Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "skill_score": 10.9, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 48.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4873, "model_under_probability": 0.5127, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4628, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5372, "edge_over": -0.0029, "edge_under": -0.0563, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0029, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 88.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:44.201Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "skill_score": 30.2, "opportunity_score": 62.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6087, "model_under_probability": 0.3913, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.574, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.426, "edge_over": -0.0037, "edge_under": -0.0632, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0037, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.977, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 63.1, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sandy Alcantara", "pitcher_id": 645261, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:36.598Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "skill_score": 11.7, "opportunity_score": 84.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 5.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4553, "model_under_probability": 0.5447, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.0569, "edge_under": -0.0109, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0109, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.079, "aggregate_matchup_score": 54.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 22618.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.3, "wind_speed_mph": 5.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:33.120Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -145, "expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.27, "skill_score": 30.8, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.424, "model_under_probability": 0.576, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4518, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5482, "edge_over": -0.0638, "edge_under": -0.0158, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0158, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael King", "pitcher_id": 650633, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:44.201Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -165, "under_odds": 127, "expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.27, "skill_score": 30.8, "opportunity_score": 53.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 36.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5763, "model_under_probability": 0.4237, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4405, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5856, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4144, "edge_over": -0.0463, "edge_under": -0.0168, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0168, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.19, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19346.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.5, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.7, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:11.499Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 3.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.79, "skill_score": 28.9, "opportunity_score": 63.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5075, "model_under_probability": 0.4925, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.023, "edge_under": -0.038, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.023, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:40.553Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "skill_score": 10.9, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 48.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4873, "model_under_probability": 0.5127, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.0249, "edge_under": -0.0429, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0249, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 88.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:44.201Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.7, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.7, "skill_score": 10.9, "opportunity_score": 49.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 48.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4873, "model_under_probability": 0.5127, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4824, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5176, "edge_over": -0.0249, "edge_under": -0.0368, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0249, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.22, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.04, "aggregate_matchup_score": 66.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.89, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 88.7, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:55:44.201Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -114, "under_odds": -112, "expected_strikeouts": 3.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.79, "skill_score": 28.9, "opportunity_score": 63.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5075, "model_under_probability": 0.4925, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5327, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5283, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5021, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4979, "edge_over": -0.0252, "edge_under": -0.0358, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0252, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Freeland", "pitcher_id": 607536, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-08T11:56:33.500Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 3.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.79, "skill_score": 28.9, "opportunity_score": 63.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5075, "model_under_probability": 0.4925, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0274, "edge_under": -0.0424, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0274, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26728.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.19, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Bubba Chandler", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Chase Burns", "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Griffin Jax", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Bennett", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }