{ "date": "2026-08-09", "generated_at": "2026-08-10T00:04:33.728796", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "projection_date": "2026-08-09", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 79, "matched_count": 61, "unmatched_count": 18 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 61, "grouped_pitcher_count": 21, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 61, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -143, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 56.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1849, "model_under_probability": 0.8151, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5885, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5551, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4449, "edge_over": -0.4036, "edge_under": 0.3434, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3434, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.947, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.7, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:37.693Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 56.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1849, "model_under_probability": 0.8151, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5203, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4797, "edge_over": -0.3707, "edge_under": 0.3029, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3029, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.947, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.7, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Misiorowski", "pitcher_id": 694819, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 6.02, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.02, "skill_score": 86.5, "opportunity_score": 46.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 56.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1849, "model_under_probability": 0.8151, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4854, "edge_over": -0.3606, "edge_under": 0.3005, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3005, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.947, "aggregate_matchup_score": 69.7, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 5530.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.13, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 3.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.25, "skill_score": 7.6, "opportunity_score": 42.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4031, "model_under_probability": 0.5969, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5737, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4263, "edge_over": -0.2032, "edge_under": 0.1464, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1464, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.109, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 91.2, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -133, "expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 49.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 56.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2876, "model_under_probability": 0.7124, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5708, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.462, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.538, "edge_over": -0.2026, "edge_under": 0.1416, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1416, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 97.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:23.205Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.88, "skill_score": 61.2, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3759, "model_under_probability": 0.6241, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5482, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4518, "edge_over": -0.2159, "edge_under": 0.1363, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1363, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -133, "under_odds": 103, "expected_strikeouts": 5.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.88, "skill_score": 61.2, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3759, "model_under_probability": 0.6241, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5708, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4926, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5368, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4632, "edge_over": -0.1949, "edge_under": 0.1315, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1315, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:32.902Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 49.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 56.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2876, "model_under_probability": 0.7124, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.2002, "edge_under": 0.1291, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1291, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 97.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:22.315Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.25, "skill_score": 7.6, "opportunity_score": 42.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4031, "model_under_probability": 0.5969, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.1969, "edge_under": 0.1207, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1207, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.109, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 91.2, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kumar Rocker", "pitcher_id": 677958, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 4.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.22, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.38, "skill_score": 27.4, "opportunity_score": 49.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.4, "support_tier": "BALANCED_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Balanced Support", "support_note": "Support inputs are mixed but still healthy enough to trust contextually.", "suppression_score": 56.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2876, "model_under_probability": 0.7124, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4369, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5631, "edge_over": -0.1754, "edge_under": 0.1156, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1156, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.048, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6507.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 97.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "skill_score": 60.2, "opportunity_score": 26.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 84.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3906, "model_under_probability": 0.6094, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5331, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4669, "edge_over": -0.1746, "edge_under": 0.1144, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1144, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:42.553Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "skill_score": 60.2, "opportunity_score": 26.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 84.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3906, "model_under_probability": 0.6094, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5347, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4653, "edge_over": -0.1839, "edge_under": 0.1094, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1094, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 3.25, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 2.96, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.25, "skill_score": 7.6, "opportunity_score": 42.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 57.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4031, "model_under_probability": 0.5969, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.1659, "edge_under": 0.1067, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1067, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.109, "aggregate_matchup_score": 37.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 91.2, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cam Schlittler", "pitcher_id": 693645, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -118, "under_odds": -108, "expected_strikeouts": 5.88, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.98, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.88, "skill_score": 61.2, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3759, "model_under_probability": 0.6241, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5104, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4896, "edge_over": -0.1654, "edge_under": 0.1049, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1049, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 6265.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Joey Cantillo", "pitcher_id": 676282, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -123, "under_odds": -103, "expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.05, "skill_score": 60.2, "opportunity_score": 26.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 84.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3906, "model_under_probability": 0.6094, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5516, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5074, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5209, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4791, "edge_over": -0.161, "edge_under": 0.102, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.102, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.08, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.016, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8372.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.14, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:22.315Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 135, "under_odds": -185, "expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.87, "skill_score": 8.1, "opportunity_score": 34.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.522, "model_under_probability": 0.478, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4255, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6491, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.396, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.604, "edge_over": 0.0965, "edge_under": -0.1711, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0965, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.7, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 91.2, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:20.668Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "skill_score": 24.2, "opportunity_score": 32.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3704, "model_under_probability": 0.6296, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.1645, "edge_under": 0.0947, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0947, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.935, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 134, "under_odds": -172, "expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.87, "skill_score": 8.1, "opportunity_score": 34.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.522, "model_under_probability": 0.478, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6324, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4033, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5967, "edge_over": 0.0946, "edge_under": -0.1544, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0946, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.7, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 91.2, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -107, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "skill_score": 24.2, "opportunity_score": 32.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3704, "model_under_probability": 0.6296, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5169, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4865, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5135, "edge_over": -0.1465, "edge_under": 0.0841, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0841, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.935, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Emerson Hancock", "pitcher_id": 676106, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.0, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.0, "skill_score": 24.2, "opportunity_score": 32.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 69.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3704, "model_under_probability": 0.6296, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5146, "edge_over": -0.1442, "edge_under": 0.0841, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0841, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.935, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11123.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.7, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 67.3, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -103, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 59.5, "opportunity_score": 68.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 18.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3662, "model_under_probability": 0.6338, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5074, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5227, "edge_over": -0.1412, "edge_under": 0.0782, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0782, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.939, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 33.9, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3878, "model_under_probability": 0.6122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.1383, "edge_under": 0.0773, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0773, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.062, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 96.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Lorenzen", "pitcher_id": 547179, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -161, "expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.87, "skill_score": 8.1, "opportunity_score": 34.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 70.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.522, "model_under_probability": 0.478, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6169, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4198, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5802, "edge_over": 0.0756, "edge_under": -0.1389, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0756, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.042, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.7, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 26336.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.28, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 91.2, "wind_speed_mph": 13.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 59.5, "opportunity_score": 68.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 18.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3662, "model_under_probability": 0.6338, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4711, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5289, "edge_over": -0.1338, "edge_under": 0.0724, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0724, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.939, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "pitcher_id": 669456, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -138, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 1.9, "opportunity_score": 28.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 76.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6476, "model_under_probability": 0.3524, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5467, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4533, "edge_over": 0.0678, "edge_under": -0.1284, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0678, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.2, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -157, "under_odds": 119, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 7.3, "opportunity_score": 6.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4791, "model_under_probability": 0.5209, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6109, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4566, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5723, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4277, "edge_over": -0.1318, "edge_under": 0.0643, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0643, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.2, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 88.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -186, "under_odds": 129, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 29.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5017, "model_under_probability": 0.4983, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6503, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4367, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5983, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4017, "edge_over": -0.1486, "edge_under": 0.0616, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0616, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "pitcher_id": 669456, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 1.9, "opportunity_score": 28.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 76.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6476, "model_under_probability": 0.3524, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4428, "edge_over": 0.0541, "edge_under": -0.1193, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0541, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.2, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -142, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 7.3, "opportunity_score": 6.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4791, "model_under_probability": 0.5209, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5544, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4456, "edge_over": -0.1077, "edge_under": 0.0492, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0492, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.28, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.065, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.2, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7135.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 88.7, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Povich", "pitcher_id": 700249, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -126, "under_odds": 101, "expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.49, "skill_score": 19.8, "opportunity_score": 24.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 79.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4543, "model_under_probability": 0.5457, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4975, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5284, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4716, "edge_over": -0.1032, "edge_under": 0.0482, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0482, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14671.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 97.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "pitcher_id": 571510, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -147, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 6.6, "opportunity_score": 67.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 38.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4856, "model_under_probability": 0.5144, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5951, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5601, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4399, "edge_over": -0.1095, "edge_under": 0.0471, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0471, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.968, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 99.9, "wind_speed_mph": 15.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "pitcher_id": 571510, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 6.6, "opportunity_score": 67.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 38.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4856, "model_under_probability": 0.5144, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4405, "edge_over": -0.1079, "edge_under": 0.0471, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0471, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.968, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 99.9, "wind_speed_mph": 15.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "pitcher_id": 669456, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:34.661Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -175, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 1.9, "opportunity_score": 28.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 76.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4791, "model_under_probability": 0.5209, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6364, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4059, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5941, "edge_over": 0.0443, "edge_under": -0.1155, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0443, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.033, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.2, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.05, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 33.9, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3878, "model_under_probability": 0.6122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4628, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5372, "edge_over": -0.1024, "edge_under": 0.0432, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0432, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.062, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 96.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:23.205Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 29.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3491, "model_under_probability": 0.6509, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.116, "edge_under": 0.0431, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0431, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:35.793Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "skill_score": 21.8, "opportunity_score": 57.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3753, "model_under_probability": 0.6247, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.1125, "edge_under": 0.0414, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0414, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.11, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:46.495Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.8, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 74.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5015, "model_under_probability": 0.4985, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": 0.0364, "edge_under": -0.1093, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0364, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 127, "expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.8, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 74.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6482, "model_under_probability": 0.3518, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4405, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5816, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4184, "edge_over": 0.0358, "edge_under": -0.0887, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0358, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "skill_score": 8.6, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 26.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6358, "model_under_probability": 0.3642, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5667, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4333, "edge_over": 0.0358, "edge_under": -0.0945, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0358, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -148, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 4.78, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.44, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.78, "skill_score": 22.1, "opportunity_score": 29.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5017, "model_under_probability": 0.4983, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5631, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4369, "edge_over": -0.0951, "edge_under": 0.0353, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0353, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.088, "aggregate_matchup_score": 45.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.61, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 91.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -144, "expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "skill_score": 21.8, "opportunity_score": 57.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3753, "model_under_probability": 0.6247, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4407, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5593, "edge_over": -0.0898, "edge_under": 0.0345, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0345, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.49, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.11, "aggregate_matchup_score": 67.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19201.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.67, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Webb", "pitcher_id": 657277, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -162, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 5.8, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.8, "skill_score": 20.1, "opportunity_score": 74.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 16.4, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6482, "model_under_probability": 0.3518, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5829, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4171, "edge_over": 0.0299, "edge_under": -0.0907, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0299, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.11, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.02, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 38756.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.93, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 60.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Matthew Boyd", "pitcher_id": 571510, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:37.428Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.68, "skill_score": 6.6, "opportunity_score": 67.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 31.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 38.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4856, "model_under_probability": 0.5144, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5482, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4518, "edge_over": -0.1062, "edge_under": 0.0266, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0266, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.26, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.968, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.4, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 19940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 99.9, "wind_speed_mph": 15.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jes\u00fas Luzardo", "pitcher_id": 666200, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:34.661Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.31, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 59.5, "opportunity_score": 68.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 18.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3662, "model_under_probability": 0.6338, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.0989, "edge_under": 0.026, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.026, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.939, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28361.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.07, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 92.8, "wind_speed_mph": 10.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "pitcher_id": 681190, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 3.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 11.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is 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"no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "aggregate_matchup_score": 15.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Povich", "pitcher_id": 700249, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:32.902Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.49, "skill_score": 19.8, "opportunity_score": 24.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 79.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4543, "model_under_probability": 0.5457, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.0912, "edge_under": 0.0219, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0219, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14671.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 97.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:56:44.081Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "skill_score": 8.6, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 26.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6358, "model_under_probability": 0.3642, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5752, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4248, "edge_over": 0.0204, "edge_under": -0.0903, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0204, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.038, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23520.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.03, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 32.8, "opportunity_score": 36.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4791, "model_under_probability": 0.5209, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4369, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5631, "edge_over": 0.0161, "edge_under": -0.0759, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0161, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.133, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.33, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Povich", "pitcher_id": 700249, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -113, "under_odds": -113, "expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.49, "skill_score": 19.8, "opportunity_score": 24.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 79.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4543, "model_under_probability": 0.5457, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5305, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0762, "edge_under": 0.0152, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0152, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14671.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.97, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 97.2, "wind_speed_mph": 9.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Gusto", "pitcher_id": 687473, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:19.294Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 7.3, "opportunity_score": 6.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment 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"projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eduardo Rodriguez", "pitcher_id": 593958, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -169, "under_odds": 128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.56, "skill_score": 8.6, "opportunity_score": 59.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 26.5, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral 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"wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Manaea", "pitcher_id": 640455, "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -162, "expected_strikeouts": 4.95, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.95, "skill_score": 21.8, "opportunity_score": 57.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 32.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": 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"neutral", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:42.553Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag 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"pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:36.028Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.9, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 33.9, "opportunity_score": 59.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3878, "model_under_probability": 0.6122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.0773, "edge_under": 0.0044, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0044, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.2, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.062, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.3, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.61, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 96.8, "wind_speed_mph": 9.2, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy V\u00e1squez", "pitcher_id": 681190, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -161, "under_odds": 123, "expected_strikeouts": 3.31, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.31, "skill_score": 7.5, "opportunity_score": 11.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 26.4, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 95.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6182, "model_under_probability": 0.3818, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6169, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4484, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5791, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4209, "edge_over": 0.0013, "edge_under": -0.0666, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0013, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "aggregate_matchup_score": 15.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18198.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -133, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5708, "model_under_probability": 0.4292, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5708, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.538, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.462, "edge_over": 0.0, "edge_under": -0.061, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "pitcher_id": 664299, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:17.768Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -133, "expected_strikeouts": 3.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.39, "skill_score": 6.3, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4311, "model_under_probability": 0.5689, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5708, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4644, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5356, "edge_over": -0.0639, "edge_under": -0.0019, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0019, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 4.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.15, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 45.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5708, "model_under_probability": 0.4292, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5428, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4572, "edge_over": -0.0055, "edge_under": -0.0562, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0055, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.952, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.91, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:43.118Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -145, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 32.8, "opportunity_score": 36.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4791, "model_under_probability": 0.5209, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4518, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5482, "edge_over": -0.0087, "edge_under": -0.0709, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0087, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.133, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.33, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "J.T. Ginn", "pitcher_id": 669372, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.64, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.14, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.64, "skill_score": 32.8, "opportunity_score": 36.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 49.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 60.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4791, "model_under_probability": 0.5209, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4628, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5372, "edge_over": -0.0111, "edge_under": -0.0481, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0111, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.5, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.133, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.5, "lineup_confidence": "confirmed", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8470.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.33, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 13.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristian Javier", "pitcher_id": 664299, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-09T11:57:09.242Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 3.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.06, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.39, "skill_score": 6.3, "opportunity_score": 12.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 36.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 97.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4311, "model_under_probability": 0.5689, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4285, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5715, "edge_over": -0.0234, "edge_under": -0.0374, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0234, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.107, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14011.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Connor Prielipp", "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jared Jones", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Justin Wrobleski", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Justin Wrobleski", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Justin Wrobleski", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "ARI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Troy Melton", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }