{ "date": "2026-08-11", "generated_at": "2026-08-11T08:11:05.918336", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "projection_date": "2026-08-11", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 186, "matched_count": 122, "unmatched_count": 64 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 122, "grouped_pitcher_count": 21, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 122, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:23.308Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -170, "under_odds": 125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 52.2, "opportunity_score": 59.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1774, "model_under_probability": 0.8226, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6296, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5862, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4138, "edge_over": -0.4522, "edge_under": 0.3782, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3782, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -172, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 52.2, "opportunity_score": 59.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1774, "model_under_probability": 0.8226, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6324, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5862, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4138, "edge_over": -0.455, "edge_under": 0.3762, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3762, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:27.830Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 52.2, "opportunity_score": 59.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1774, "model_under_probability": 0.8226, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5784, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4216, "edge_over": -0.435, "edge_under": 0.3762, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.3762, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:58:09.717Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 52.2, "opportunity_score": 59.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1017, "model_under_probability": 0.8983, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.3745, "edge_under": 0.2983, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2983, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 691587, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:48.885Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 41.4, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 40.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2434, "model_under_probability": 0.7566, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.2688, "edge_under": 0.201, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.201, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 691587, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:23.308Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -127, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 41.4, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 40.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2434, "model_under_probability": 0.7566, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5595, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4744, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5256, "edge_over": -0.2616, "edge_under": 0.1971, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1971, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 691587, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:27.830Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -128, "expected_strikeouts": 4.91, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.66, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.91, "skill_score": 41.4, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 40.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2434, "model_under_probability": 0.7566, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4711, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5289, "edge_over": -0.2566, "edge_under": 0.1952, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1952, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.25, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.054, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.24, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:23.308Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -151, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "skill_score": 63.0, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3718, "model_under_probability": 0.6282, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6016, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5674, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4326, "edge_over": -0.2298, "edge_under": 0.1695, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1695, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:23.308Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -159, "under_odds": 116, "expected_strikeouts": 6.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.79, "skill_score": 77.6, "opportunity_score": 79.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 13.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3735, "model_under_probability": 0.6265, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6139, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5701, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4299, "edge_over": -0.2404, "edge_under": 0.1635, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1635, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:48.885Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "skill_score": 63.0, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3718, "model_under_probability": 0.6282, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.236, "edge_under": 0.1631, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1631, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:58:00.649Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 6.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.79, "skill_score": 77.6, "opportunity_score": 79.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 13.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3735, "model_under_probability": 0.6265, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.2343, "edge_under": 0.1614, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1614, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "skill_score": 63.0, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3718, "model_under_probability": 0.6282, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4405, "edge_over": -0.2217, "edge_under": 0.1609, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1609, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:27.830Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "skill_score": 63.0, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3718, "model_under_probability": 0.6282, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4405, "edge_over": -0.2217, "edge_under": 0.1609, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1609, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:23.308Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 16.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 85.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2879, "model_under_probability": 0.7121, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4761, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5239, "edge_over": -0.2171, "edge_under": 0.1565, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1565, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:27.830Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 16.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 85.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2879, "model_under_probability": 0.7121, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": -0.2071, "edge_under": 0.1469, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1469, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:23.308Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 117, "under_odds": -149, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 40.2, "opportunity_score": 59.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2607, "model_under_probability": 0.7393, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4608, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5984, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.435, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.565, "edge_over": -0.2001, "edge_under": 0.1409, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1409, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.96, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 6.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.79, "skill_score": 77.6, "opportunity_score": 79.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 13.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3735, "model_under_probability": 0.6265, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.1955, "edge_under": 0.1363, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1363, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:27.830Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 6.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.79, "skill_score": 77.6, "opportunity_score": 79.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 13.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3735, "model_under_probability": 0.6265, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.1955, "edge_under": 0.1363, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1363, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 40.2, "opportunity_score": 59.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2607, "model_under_probability": 0.7393, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4285, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5715, "edge_over": -0.1938, "edge_under": 0.133, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.133, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.96, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:27.830Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 40.2, "opportunity_score": 59.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2607, "model_under_probability": 0.7393, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4285, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5715, "edge_over": -0.1938, "edge_under": 0.133, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.133, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.96, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:31.485Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 40.2, "opportunity_score": 59.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2607, "model_under_probability": 0.7393, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.2044, "edge_under": 0.1315, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1315, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.96, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:31.485Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 29.8, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.296, "model_under_probability": 0.704, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.1918, "edge_under": 0.1207, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1207, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:58:02.019Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 4.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "skill_score": 49.6, "opportunity_score": 20.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3245, "model_under_probability": 0.6755, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.1755, "edge_under": 0.101, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.101, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:23.308Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -152, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 29.8, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.296, "model_under_probability": 0.704, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6032, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4343, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5657, "edge_over": -0.167, "edge_under": 0.1008, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1008, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 29.8, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.296, "model_under_probability": 0.704, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4285, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5715, "edge_over": -0.1585, "edge_under": 0.0977, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0977, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:27.830Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -154, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 29.8, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.296, "model_under_probability": 0.704, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4285, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5715, "edge_over": -0.1585, "edge_under": 0.0977, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0977, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Walker Buehler", "pitcher_id": 621111, "team_abbr": "SD", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:58:02.019Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 3.53, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.53, "skill_score": 7.9, "opportunity_score": 16.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.8, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 85.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2879, "model_under_probability": 0.7121, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": -0.1666, "edge_under": 0.0967, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0967, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.015, "aggregate_matchup_score": 23.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15814.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.85, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:23.308Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 16.9, "opportunity_score": 55.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2932, "model_under_probability": 0.7068, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5784, "edge_over": -0.1532, "edge_under": 0.0944, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0944, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 16.9, "opportunity_score": 55.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2932, "model_under_probability": 0.7068, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5784, "edge_over": -0.1532, "edge_under": 0.0944, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0944, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:27.830Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 16.9, "opportunity_score": 55.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2932, "model_under_probability": 0.7068, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5784, "edge_over": -0.1532, "edge_under": 0.0944, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0944, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:58:06.415Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -175, "expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.47, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.87, "skill_score": 8.3, "opportunity_score": 45.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 54.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.522, "model_under_probability": 0.478, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6364, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4059, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5941, "edge_over": 0.0872, "edge_under": -0.1584, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0872, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.114, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 527048, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:23.308Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -161, "under_odds": 126, "expected_strikeouts": 3.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.6, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 14.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 91.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4719, "model_under_probability": 0.5281, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6169, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5823, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4177, "edge_over": -0.145, "edge_under": 0.0856, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0856, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 16.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:23.308Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -145, "expected_strikeouts": 4.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "skill_score": 49.6, "opportunity_score": 20.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3245, "model_under_probability": 0.6755, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4412, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5588, "edge_over": -0.1428, "edge_under": 0.0837, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0837, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Harrison", "pitcher_id": 690986, "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:27.830Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 4.62, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "skill_score": 49.6, "opportunity_score": 20.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 27.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_SKILL", "support_label": "Strong Skill", "support_note": "Underlying strikeout skill is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3245, "model_under_probability": 0.6755, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4405, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5595, "edge_over": -0.1428, "edge_under": 0.082, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.082, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.973, "aggregate_matchup_score": 35.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12381.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.54, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 70.5, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 527048, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:27.830Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -160, "under_odds": 124, "expected_strikeouts": 3.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.6, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 14.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 91.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4719, "model_under_probability": 0.5281, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5796, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4204, "edge_over": -0.1435, "edge_under": 0.0817, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0817, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 16.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18249.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.4, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:23.308Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 31.6, "opportunity_score": 60.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3738, "model_under_probability": 0.6262, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4789, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5211, "edge_over": -0.1312, "edge_under": 0.0767, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0767, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "skill_score": 22.9, "opportunity_score": 46.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2661, "model_under_probability": 0.7339, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0738, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0738, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:46.690Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -125, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 31.6, "opportunity_score": 60.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3738, "model_under_probability": 0.6262, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4797, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5203, "edge_over": -0.1384, "edge_under": 0.0706, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0706, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Martinez", "pitcher_id": 607259, "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "ATH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:27.830Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 3.87, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.47, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.87, "skill_score": 8.3, "opportunity_score": 45.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 54.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.522, "model_under_probability": 0.478, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": 0.0633, "edge_under": -0.122, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0633, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.114, "aggregate_matchup_score": 43.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18769.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.82, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 66.7, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 31.6, "opportunity_score": 60.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3738, "model_under_probability": 0.6262, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": -0.1212, "edge_under": 0.061, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.061, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:27.830Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 102, "under_odds": -130, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 31.6, "opportunity_score": 60.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3738, "model_under_probability": 0.6262, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4669, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5331, "edge_over": -0.1212, "edge_under": 0.061, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.061, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:58:06.559Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 16.9, "opportunity_score": 55.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4642, "model_under_probability": 0.5358, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.1358, "edge_under": 0.0596, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0596, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 13.1, "opportunity_score": 34.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 62.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2237, "model_under_probability": 0.7763, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.057, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.057, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 400, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 23.1, "opportunity_score": 66.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.254, "model_under_probability": 0.746, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.054, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.054, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.4, 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"suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3461, "model_under_probability": 0.6539, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2985, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0476, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0476, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, 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0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 527048, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:58:02.263Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 3.6, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.6, "skill_score": 12.2, "opportunity_score": 14.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is 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"timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:27.830Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -106, "expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.08, "skill_score": 43.5, "opportunity_score": 57.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5402, "model_under_probability": 0.4598, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4854, "edge_over": -0.0053, "edge_under": -0.0548, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0053, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 55.6, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:27.830Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 3.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.01, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 47.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5599, "model_under_probability": 0.4401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5331, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4669, "edge_over": -0.0053, "edge_under": -0.0549, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0053, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "aggregate_matchup_score": 16.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:23.308Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -137, "expected_strikeouts": 3.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.61, "skill_score": 15.2, "opportunity_score": 60.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4738, "model_under_probability": 0.5262, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5781, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4564, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5436, "edge_over": -0.0116, "edge_under": -0.0519, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0116, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:23.308Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -102, "under_odds": -126, "expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.5, "skill_score": 11.7, "opportunity_score": 64.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 21.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.456, "model_under_probability": 0.544, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5575, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4753, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5247, "edge_over": -0.049, "edge_under": -0.0135, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0135, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:23.308Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -105, "under_odds": -124, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 13.1, "opportunity_score": 34.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 62.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4985, "model_under_probability": 0.5015, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5536, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4806, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5194, "edge_over": -0.0137, "edge_under": -0.0521, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0137, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:23.308Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -154, "under_odds": 120, "expected_strikeouts": 3.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.01, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 47.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5599, "model_under_probability": 0.4401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6063, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5715, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4285, "edge_over": -0.0464, "edge_under": -0.0144, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0144, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "aggregate_matchup_score": 16.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher S\u00e1nchez", "pitcher_id": 650911, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:55.371Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 6.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.84, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.01, "skill_score": 65.5, "opportunity_score": 67.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.4, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 19.0, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5307, "model_under_probability": 0.4693, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.0148, "edge_under": -0.0545, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0148, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.17, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.09, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:59.635Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.08, "skill_score": 43.5, "opportunity_score": 57.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5402, "model_under_probability": 0.4598, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.0598, "edge_under": -0.0164, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0164, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 55.6, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:58:09.717Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "skill_score": 22.9, "opportunity_score": 46.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5483, "model_under_probability": 0.4517, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5246, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4754, "edge_over": -0.0169, "edge_under": -0.0605, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0169, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Blake Snell", "pitcher_id": 605483, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:58:11.798Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 6.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "skill_score": 76.0, "opportunity_score": 36.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4128, "model_under_probability": 0.5872, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.0523, "edge_under": -0.0206, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0206, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21736.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:23.308Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 103, "expected_strikeouts": 6.08, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.08, "skill_score": 43.5, "opportunity_score": 57.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 41.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5402, "model_under_probability": 0.4598, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4926, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5326, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4674, "edge_over": -0.0212, "edge_under": -0.0328, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0212, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.01, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.012, "aggregate_matchup_score": 71.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.98, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 55.6, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tomoyuki Sugano", "pitcher_id": 608372, "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:58:01.789Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 3.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.03, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.01, "skill_score": 4.3, "opportunity_score": 47.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.9, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 50.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5599, "model_under_probability": 0.4401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.0234, "edge_under": -0.0477, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0234, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.992, "aggregate_matchup_score": 16.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12825.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.2, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": null, "wind_speed_mph": null, "wind_direction": "unknown", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:27.830Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 104, "under_odds": -132, "expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.5, "skill_score": 11.7, "opportunity_score": 64.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 21.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.456, "model_under_probability": 0.544, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4628, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5372, "edge_over": -0.0342, "edge_under": -0.025, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.025, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:55.371Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 3.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.61, "skill_score": 15.2, "opportunity_score": 60.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4738, "model_under_probability": 0.5262, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.0262, "edge_under": -0.0483, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0262, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Blake Snell", "pitcher_id": 605483, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:27.830Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 6.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "skill_score": 76.0, "opportunity_score": 36.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4128, "model_under_probability": 0.5872, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4204, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5796, "edge_over": -0.0336, "edge_under": -0.0282, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0282, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21736.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Blake Snell", "pitcher_id": 605483, "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:57:23.308Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -161, "expected_strikeouts": 6.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.1, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.15, "skill_score": 76.0, "opportunity_score": 36.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 100.0, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4128, "model_under_probability": 0.5872, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6169, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4177, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5823, "edge_over": -0.0297, "edge_under": -0.0297, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0297, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.05, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "aggregate_matchup_score": 70.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21736.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.97, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Wacha", "pitcher_id": 608379, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-11T11:58:11.798Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 4.5, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.5, "skill_score": 11.7, "opportunity_score": 64.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 28.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 21.8, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.456, "model_under_probability": 0.544, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4653, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5347, "edge_over": -0.044, "edge_under": -0.0305, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0305, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.1, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30396.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.52, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 67.6, "wind_speed_mph": 3.7, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 420, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 31.6, "opportunity_score": 60.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1537, "model_under_probability": 0.8463, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1923, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0386, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0386, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -295, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "skill_score": 22.9, "opportunity_score": 46.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.707, "model_under_probability": 0.293, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7468, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0398, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0398, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -245, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 13.1, "opportunity_score": 34.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 62.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6647, "model_under_probability": 0.3353, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7101, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0454, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0454, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -295, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 23.1, "opportunity_score": 66.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6956, "model_under_probability": 0.3044, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7468, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0512, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0512, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -900, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.08, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.79, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.08, "skill_score": 22.9, "opportunity_score": 46.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.0, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 53.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8456, "model_under_probability": 0.1544, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0544, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0544, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.061, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.47, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 29.8, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1183, "model_under_probability": 0.8817, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0571, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0571, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bailey Ober", "pitcher_id": 641927, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -720, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.34, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.76, "skill_score": 13.1, "opportunity_score": 34.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 62.3, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.8172, "model_under_probability": 0.1828, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.878, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0608, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0608, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.42, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29545.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.56, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 16.9, "opportunity_score": 55.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0894, "model_under_probability": 0.9106, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0621, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0621, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andre Pallante", "pitcher_id": 669467, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.61, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.61, "skill_score": 15.2, "opportunity_score": 60.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 30.5, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6703, "model_under_probability": 0.3297, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7368, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0665, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0665, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.104, "aggregate_matchup_score": 31.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 20588.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 84.6, "wind_speed_mph": 8.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -950, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 23.1, "opportunity_score": 66.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.2, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.838, "model_under_probability": 0.162, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9048, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0668, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0668, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.4, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.087, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 76.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 470, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 40.2, "opportunity_score": 59.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0976, "model_under_probability": 0.9024, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1754, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0778, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0778, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.96, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 31.6, "opportunity_score": 60.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2474, "model_under_probability": 0.7526, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0859, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0859, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "skill_score": 63.0, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1681, "model_under_probability": 0.8319, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.274, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1059, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1059, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 235, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 29.8, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1924, "model_under_probability": 0.8076, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2985, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1061, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1061, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 255, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 16.9, "opportunity_score": 55.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1687, "model_under_probability": 0.8313, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2817, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.113, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.113, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 31.6, "opportunity_score": 60.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8337, "model_under_probability": 0.1663, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9615, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1278, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1278, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 235, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 40.2, "opportunity_score": 59.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1641, "model_under_probability": 0.8359, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2985, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1344, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1344, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.96, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 138, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.79, "skill_score": 77.6, "opportunity_score": 79.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 13.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2673, "model_under_probability": 0.7327, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4202, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1529, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1529, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 134, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "skill_score": 63.0, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2567, "model_under_probability": 0.7433, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4274, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1707, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1707, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -235, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 31.6, "opportunity_score": 60.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5269, "model_under_probability": 0.4731, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7015, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1746, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1746, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shota Imanaga", "pitcher_id": 684007, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -650, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.97, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 31.6, "opportunity_score": 60.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 32.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6891, "model_under_probability": 0.3109, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1776, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1776, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.03, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 50.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21240.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.87, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.5, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "skill_score": 63.0, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7906, "model_under_probability": 0.2094, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9722, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1816, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1816, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -650, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 16.9, "opportunity_score": 55.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.662, "model_under_probability": 0.338, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2047, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2047, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 29.8, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7334, "model_under_probability": 0.2666, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9412, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2078, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2078, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.79, "skill_score": 77.6, "opportunity_score": 79.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 13.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7567, "model_under_probability": 0.2433, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9677, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.211, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.211, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brandon Young", "pitcher_id": 687064, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -220, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.56, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.56, "skill_score": 16.9, "opportunity_score": 55.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 36.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4642, "model_under_probability": 0.5358, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6875, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2233, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2233, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.27, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4695.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.26, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 79.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 250, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 52.2, "opportunity_score": 59.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.055, "model_under_probability": 0.945, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2857, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2307, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2307, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 40.2, "opportunity_score": 59.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.702, "model_under_probability": 0.298, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9355, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2335, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2335, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.96, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -196, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 29.8, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4285, "model_under_probability": 0.5715, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6622, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2337, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2337, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -460, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.71, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.3, "skill_score": 29.8, "opportunity_score": 58.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5806, "model_under_probability": 0.4194, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8214, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2408, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2408, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.59, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.126, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.25, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -900, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "skill_score": 63.0, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6545, "model_under_probability": 0.3455, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2455, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2455, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -770, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.79, "skill_score": 77.6, "opportunity_score": 79.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 13.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6298, "model_under_probability": 0.3702, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8851, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2553, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2553, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -310, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.79, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.94, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.79, "skill_score": 77.6, "opportunity_score": 79.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 39.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 13.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4975, "model_under_probability": 0.5025, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7561, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2586, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2586, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.979, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.29, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 68.9, "wind_speed_mph": 2.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "pitcher_id": 694973, "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.85, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.33, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.85, "skill_score": 63.0, "opportunity_score": 50.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 55.8, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5085, "model_under_probability": 0.4915, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7778, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2693, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2693, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.097, "aggregate_matchup_score": 79.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23485.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 82.0, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -480, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 40.2, "opportunity_score": 59.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5422, "model_under_probability": 0.4578, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8276, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2854, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2854, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.96, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -210, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.25, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 40.2, "opportunity_score": 59.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3891, "model_under_probability": 0.6109, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6774, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2883, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2883, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.96, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.85, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 73.0, "wind_speed_mph": 1.9, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 134, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 52.2, "opportunity_score": 59.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1017, "model_under_probability": 0.8983, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4274, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.3257, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.3257, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -4000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 52.2, "opportunity_score": 59.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6098, "model_under_probability": 0.3902, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9756, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.3658, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.3658, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1000, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 52.2, "opportunity_score": 59.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4375, "model_under_probability": 0.5625, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9091, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.4716, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.4716, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -390, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.39, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.05, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.39, "skill_score": 52.2, "opportunity_score": 59.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.9, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 35.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2891, "model_under_probability": 0.7109, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7959, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.5068, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.5068, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.34, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.083, "aggregate_matchup_score": 40.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.11, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.3, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Cody Bradford", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cody Bradford", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cristopher Sanchez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease 11+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 10.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Martin Perez", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mason Barnett", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mason Barnett", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mason Barnett", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Bratt", "team_abbr": "ARI", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Bratt", "team_abbr": "ARI", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Mitch Bratt", "team_abbr": "ARI", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 7.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Nolan McLean", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 8.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke 10+ Strikeouts", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 9.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }