{ "date": "2026-08-13", "generated_at": "2026-08-13T08:10:15.729938", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "projection_date": "2026-08-13", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 131, "matched_count": 86, "unmatched_count": 45 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 86, "grouped_pitcher_count": 11, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 86, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 3.71, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.71, "skill_score": 36.0, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1891, "model_under_probability": 0.8109, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5544, "edge_over": -0.2826, "edge_under": 0.2241, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2241, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:22.664Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 3.71, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.71, "skill_score": 36.0, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1891, "model_under_probability": 0.8109, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5544, "edge_over": -0.2826, "edge_under": 0.2241, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2241, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:58:00.210Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 3.71, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.71, "skill_score": 36.0, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1891, "model_under_probability": 0.8109, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5575, "edge_over": -0.2871, "edge_under": 0.2109, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2109, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:20.285Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 121, "under_odds": -157, "expected_strikeouts": 3.71, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.71, "skill_score": 36.0, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1891, "model_under_probability": 0.8109, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4525, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6109, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4255, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5745, "edge_over": -0.2634, "edge_under": 0.2, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:58:00.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 11.2, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3686, "model_under_probability": 0.6314, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.2392, "edge_under": 0.1663, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1663, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:49.880Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 48.1, "opportunity_score": 32.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 75.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3662, "model_under_probability": 0.6338, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": -0.2338, "edge_under": 0.1576, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1576, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.6, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.53, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:20.285Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 107, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 11.2, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3686, "model_under_probability": 0.6314, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4831, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.544, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.456, "edge_over": -0.2077, "edge_under": 0.1483, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1483, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 11.2, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3686, "model_under_probability": 0.6314, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5428, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4572, "edge_over": -0.2077, "edge_under": 0.146, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.146, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:22.664Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 11.2, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3686, "model_under_probability": 0.6314, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5428, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4572, "edge_over": -0.2077, "edge_under": 0.146, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.146, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:20.285Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 48.1, "opportunity_score": 32.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 75.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3662, "model_under_probability": 0.6338, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5348, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4652, "edge_over": -0.2028, "edge_under": 0.1388, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1388, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.6, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.53, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:22.664Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.21, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 48.1, "opportunity_score": 32.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 56.3, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 75.2, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3662, "model_under_probability": 0.6338, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5187, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4813, "edge_over": -0.1833, "edge_under": 0.124, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.124, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.6, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.115, "aggregate_matchup_score": 80.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.53, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 69.1, "wind_speed_mph": 3.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:20.285Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -153, "under_odds": 121, "expected_strikeouts": 6.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.3, "skill_score": 46.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4331, "model_under_probability": 0.5669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6047, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4525, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.428, "edge_over": -0.1716, "edge_under": 0.1144, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1144, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:58:02.338Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -155, "under_odds": 115, "expected_strikeouts": 6.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.3, "skill_score": 46.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4331, "model_under_probability": 0.5669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5665, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4335, "edge_over": -0.1747, "edge_under": 0.1018, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1018, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 6.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.3, "skill_score": 46.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4331, "model_under_probability": 0.5669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4405, "edge_over": -0.1604, "edge_under": 0.0996, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0996, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:22.664Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 6.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.3, "skill_score": 46.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4331, "model_under_probability": 0.5669, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4405, "edge_over": -0.1604, "edge_under": 0.0996, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0996, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:20.285Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -141, "under_odds": 113, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 34.9, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 19.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4611, "model_under_probability": 0.5389, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5851, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4695, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5548, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4452, "edge_over": -0.124, "edge_under": 0.0694, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0694, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "skill_score": 26.4, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2037, "model_under_probability": 0.7963, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1429, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0608, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0608, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:58:00.000Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.49, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 20.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4543, "model_under_probability": 0.5457, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5446, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4554, "edge_over": -0.129, "edge_under": 0.0579, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0579, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "pitcher_id": 672456, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 44.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2792, "model_under_probability": 0.7208, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2222, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.057, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.057, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "pitcher_id": 672456, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 154, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 44.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4487, "model_under_probability": 0.5513, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3937, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.055, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.055, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 285, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "skill_score": 26.4, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3097, "model_under_probability": 0.6903, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2597, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.05, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.05, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.49, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 20.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4543, "model_under_probability": 0.5457, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4711, "edge_over": -0.1071, "edge_under": 0.0457, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0457, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:22.664Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.49, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 20.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4543, "model_under_probability": 0.5457, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4711, "edge_over": -0.1071, "edge_under": 0.0457, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0457, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 34.9, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 19.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4611, "model_under_probability": 0.5389, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5331, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4669, "edge_over": -0.1041, "edge_under": 0.0439, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0439, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:22.664Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 34.9, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 19.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4611, "model_under_probability": 0.5389, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5331, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4669, "edge_over": -0.1041, "edge_under": 0.0439, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0439, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:20.285Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -103, "expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.49, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 20.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.4543, "model_under_probability": 0.5457, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5074, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5199, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4801, "edge_over": -0.0952, "edge_under": 0.0383, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0383, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 37.2, "opportunity_score": 49.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2014, "model_under_probability": 0.7986, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1667, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0347, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0347, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.091, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 46.2, "opportunity_score": 37.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 85.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment 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"negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:22.664Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 46.2, "opportunity_score": 37.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 85.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5029, "model_under_probability": 0.4971, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4405, "edge_over": -0.0906, "edge_under": 0.0298, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0298, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 140, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "skill_score": 26.4, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4434, "model_under_probability": 0.5566, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0267, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0267, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:20.285Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -144, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 46.2, "opportunity_score": 37.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 85.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5029, "model_under_probability": 0.4971, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5558, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4442, "edge_over": -0.0873, "edge_under": 0.0254, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0254, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:15.295Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 34.9, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 19.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.4611, "model_under_probability": 0.5389, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.0844, "edge_under": 0.0151, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0151, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 240, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 37.2, "opportunity_score": 49.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3069, "model_under_probability": 0.6931, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2941, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0128, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0128, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.091, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 46.2, "opportunity_score": 37.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 85.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1642, "model_under_probability": 0.8358, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0127, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0127, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "pitcher_id": 672456, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -180, "under_odds": 140, "expected_strikeouts": 3.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 44.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6485, "model_under_probability": 0.3515, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6429, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4167, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.6067, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.3933, "edge_over": 0.0056, "edge_under": -0.0652, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0056, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "pitcher_id": 672456, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:22.664Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -180, "under_odds": 140, "expected_strikeouts": 3.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 44.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6485, "model_under_probability": 0.3515, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6429, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4167, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.6067, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.3933, "edge_over": 0.0056, "edge_under": -0.0652, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0056, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 630, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 34.9, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 19.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.1373, "model_under_probability": 0.8627, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.137, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": 0.0003, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0003, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "pitcher_id": 672456, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:58:11.997Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -185, "under_odds": 135, "expected_strikeouts": 3.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 44.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6485, "model_under_probability": 0.3515, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6491, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4255, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.604, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.396, "edge_over": -0.0006, "edge_under": -0.074, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0006, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -162, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 37.2, "opportunity_score": 49.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4405, "model_under_probability": 0.5595, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5829, "edge_over": -0.002, "edge_under": -0.0588, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.002, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.091, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:22.664Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 126, "under_odds": -162, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 37.2, "opportunity_score": 49.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4405, "model_under_probability": 0.5595, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4425, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6183, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4171, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5829, "edge_over": -0.002, "edge_under": -0.0588, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.002, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.091, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "pitcher_id": 453286, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:58:16.124Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 10.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3878, "model_under_probability": 0.6122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": -0.0667, "edge_under": -0.0032, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0032, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 118, "expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "skill_score": 26.4, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5948, "model_under_probability": 0.4052, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5667, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4333, "edge_over": -0.0052, "edge_under": -0.0535, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0052, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "pitcher_id": 453286, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 560, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 10.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1437, "model_under_probability": 0.8563, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1515, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0078, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0078, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Keider Montero", "pitcher_id": 672456, "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:20.285Z", "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -193, "under_odds": 140, "expected_strikeouts": 3.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.48, "skill_score": 12.9, "opportunity_score": 51.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 30.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 44.4, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6485, "model_under_probability": 0.3515, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4167, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.6125, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.3875, "edge_over": -0.0102, "edge_under": -0.0652, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0102, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.999, "aggregate_matchup_score": 36.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9948.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.58, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 280, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 46.2, "opportunity_score": 37.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 85.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2518, "model_under_probability": 0.7482, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2632, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0114, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0114, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "pitcher_id": 453286, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:20.285Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 131, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 10.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3878, "model_under_probability": 0.6122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4329, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4096, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5904, "edge_over": -0.0451, "edge_under": -0.0119, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0119, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "pitcher_id": 453286, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 128, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 10.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3878, "model_under_probability": 0.6122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4127, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5873, "edge_over": -0.0508, "edge_under": -0.0119, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0119, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "pitcher_id": 453286, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:22.664Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 128, "under_odds": -166, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 10.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3878, "model_under_probability": 0.6122, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4386, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6241, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4127, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5873, "edge_over": -0.0508, "edge_under": -0.0119, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0119, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 320, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 34.9, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 19.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2175, "model_under_probability": 0.7825, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2381, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0206, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0206, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:15.295Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 37.2, "opportunity_score": 49.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4405, "model_under_probability": 0.5595, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.0246, "edge_under": -0.0483, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0246, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.091, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:58:02.338Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 46.2, "opportunity_score": 37.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 85.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5029, "model_under_probability": 0.4971, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.0426, "edge_under": -0.0267, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0267, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 360, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.49, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 20.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.1896, "model_under_probability": 0.8104, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2174, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0278, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0278, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "pitcher_id": 453286, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 10.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.2454, "model_under_probability": 0.7546, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.274, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0286, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0286, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-13T11:57:20.285Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 37.2, "opportunity_score": 49.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4405, "model_under_probability": 0.5595, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4415, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5585, "edge_over": -0.0312, "edge_under": -0.0373, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0312, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.091, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 750, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 11.2, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0706, "model_under_probability": 0.9294, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1176, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.047, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.047, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 136, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 46.2, "opportunity_score": 37.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 85.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3662, "model_under_probability": 0.6338, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4237, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0575, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0575, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 265, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.3, "skill_score": 46.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2139, "model_under_probability": 0.7861, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.274, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0601, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0601, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -192, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 37.2, "opportunity_score": 49.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.592, "model_under_probability": 0.408, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6575, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0655, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0655, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.091, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -430, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "skill_score": 26.4, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7448, "model_under_probability": 0.2552, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8113, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0665, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0665, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 168, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.49, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 20.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3045, "model_under_probability": 0.6955, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3731, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0686, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0686, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kevin Gausman", "pitcher_id": 592332, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1600, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.54, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.4, "skill_score": 26.4, "opportunity_score": 61.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.8, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 29.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8697, "model_under_probability": 0.1303, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9412, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0715, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0715, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": -0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.976, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 35829.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.12, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 150, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 34.9, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 19.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3262, "model_under_probability": 0.6738, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0738, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0738, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1800, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 37.2, "opportunity_score": 49.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.8683, "model_under_probability": 0.1317, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9474, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0791, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0791, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.091, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Aaron Nola", "pitcher_id": 605400, "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.38, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "skill_score": 37.2, "opportunity_score": 49.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 47.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 42.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7425, "model_under_probability": 0.2575, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8333, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.0908, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0908, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.45, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.091, "aggregate_matchup_score": 62.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 29857.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.06, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -4500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 34.9, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 19.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8778, "model_under_probability": 0.1222, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9783, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1005, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1005, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 330, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 11.2, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1317, "model_under_probability": 0.8683, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.2326, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1009, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1009, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "pitcher_id": 453286, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -590, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 10.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7424, "model_under_probability": 0.2576, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8551, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1127, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1127, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Scherzer", "pitcher_id": 453286, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -210, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.1, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.67, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.1, "skill_score": 3.6, "opportunity_score": 10.6, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 97.9, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5623, "model_under_probability": 0.4377, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6774, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1151, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1151, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.43, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.118, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 17021.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.16, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 2.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 134, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.3, "skill_score": 46.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3121, "model_under_probability": 0.6879, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4274, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1153, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1153, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1100, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.49, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 20.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7894, "model_under_probability": 0.2106, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1273, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1273, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 450, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.71, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.71, "skill_score": 36.0, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.0525, "model_under_probability": 0.9475, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.1818, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1293, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1293, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1100, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 46.2, "opportunity_score": 37.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 85.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.7869, "model_under_probability": 0.2131, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9167, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1298, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1298, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Max Fried", "pitcher_id": 608331, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -370, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.81, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.5, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.81, "skill_score": 46.2, "opportunity_score": 37.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 85.7, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6494, "model_under_probability": 0.3506, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7872, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1378, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1378, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.31, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.056, "aggregate_matchup_score": 58.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30318.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.27, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -900, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 34.9, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 19.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7578, "model_under_probability": 0.2422, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1422, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1422, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -3500, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.3, "skill_score": 46.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.8289, "model_under_probability": 0.1711, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9722, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1433, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1433, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Davis Martin", "pitcher_id": 663436, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -340, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.36, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.49, "skill_score": 5.2, "opportunity_score": 20.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 81.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6253, "model_under_probability": 0.3747, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7727, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1474, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1474, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 34.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 14498.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.9, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Taj Bradley", "pitcher_id": 671737, "team_abbr": "MIN", "opponent_abbr": "PHI", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -330, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 5.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.38, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.52, "skill_score": 34.9, "opportunity_score": 63.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.5, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 19.7, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.6114, "model_under_probability": 0.3886, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7674, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.156, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.156, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.14, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.026, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 25885.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.0, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 154, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 11.2, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2291, "model_under_probability": 0.7709, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3937, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1646, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1646, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -850, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.3, "skill_score": 46.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.7071, "model_under_probability": 0.2929, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8947, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1876, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1876, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -1200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 11.2, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.7276, "model_under_probability": 0.2724, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9231, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.1955, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.1955, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Gilbert", "pitcher_id": 669302, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -350, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 6.3, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.12, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.3, "skill_score": 46.4, "opportunity_score": 70.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.1, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 24.1, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.5694, "model_under_probability": 0.4306, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7778, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2084, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2084, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.029, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 31714.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.41, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 10.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 220, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.71, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.71, "skill_score": 36.0, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.1033, "model_under_probability": 0.8967, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.3125, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2092, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2092, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Abbott", "pitcher_id": 671096, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -370, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.99, "skill_score": 11.2, "opportunity_score": 57.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 39.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5433, "model_under_probability": 0.4567, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.7872, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2439, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2439, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.36, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.098, "aggregate_matchup_score": 48.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 28405.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.66, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 73.2, "wind_speed_mph": 5.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 2.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -2200, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.71, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.71, "skill_score": 36.0, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6863, "model_under_probability": 0.3137, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.9565, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.2702, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.2702, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -530, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.71, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.71, "skill_score": 36.0, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4927, "model_under_probability": 0.5073, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.8413, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.3486, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.3486, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Cade Cavalli", "pitcher_id": 676917, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "fanduel", "timestamp": null, "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -220, "under_odds": null, "expected_strikeouts": 3.71, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.42, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.71, "skill_score": 36.0, "opportunity_score": 55.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 49.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3195, "model_under_probability": 0.6805, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6875, "implied_under_probability_raw": null, "implied_over_probability_novig": null, "implied_under_probability_novig": null, "edge_over": -0.368, "edge_under": null, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.368, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.084, "aggregate_matchup_score": 28.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 3940.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.43, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 85.5, "wind_speed_mph": 4.2, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Braxton Ashcraft", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": 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"canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Payton Tolle", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout 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"opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Roki Sasaki", "team_abbr": "LAD", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Drohan", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 2.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Tyler Phillips", "team_abbr": null, "opponent_abbr": null, "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Walbert Ure\u00f1a", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }