{ "date": "2026-08-16", "generated_at": "2026-08-17T00:06:21.660100", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "projection_date": "2026-08-16", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 75, "matched_count": 46, "unmatched_count": 29 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 46, "grouped_pitcher_count": 16, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 46, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:36.858Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "skill_score": 55.2, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2277, "model_under_probability": 0.7723, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5505, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4495, "edge_over": -0.3556, "edge_under": 0.2961, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2961, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 14.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:52.407Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -128, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "skill_score": 55.2, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2277, "model_under_probability": 0.7723, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5614, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5289, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4711, "edge_over": -0.3337, "edge_under": 0.2723, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2723, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 14.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 691587, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:36.858Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 45.1, "opportunity_score": 56.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2368, "model_under_probability": 0.7632, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5176, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4824, "edge_over": -0.3127, "edge_under": 0.251, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.251, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.57, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.132, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Sean Burke", "pitcher_id": 680732, "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "DET", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:56:32.735Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.98, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.69, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.98, "skill_score": 55.2, "opportunity_score": 53.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 34.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2277, "model_under_probability": 0.7723, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.3178, "edge_under": 0.2485, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2485, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.29, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.08, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10284.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.2, "wind_speed_mph": 14.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:52.407Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -156, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.49, "skill_score": 24.9, "opportunity_score": 73.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3045, "model_under_probability": 0.6955, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.425, "edge_over": -0.3049, "edge_under": 0.245, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.245, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.117, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 691587, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:52.407Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 45.1, "opportunity_score": 56.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2368, "model_under_probability": 0.7632, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": -0.2893, "edge_under": 0.2283, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2283, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.57, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.132, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:36.858Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -141, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.49, "skill_score": 24.9, "opportunity_score": 73.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3045, "model_under_probability": 0.6955, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5851, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5513, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4487, "edge_over": -0.2806, "edge_under": 0.2193, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2193, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.117, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Eury P\u00e9rez", "pitcher_id": 691587, "team_abbr": "MIA", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:56:29.822Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -120, "expected_strikeouts": 4.86, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.86, "skill_score": 45.1, "opportunity_score": 56.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 50.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 40.1, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2368, "model_under_probability": 0.7632, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4899, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5101, "edge_over": -0.287, "edge_under": 0.2177, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2177, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.57, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.132, "aggregate_matchup_score": 68.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 12967.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.71, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:36.858Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -129, "under_odds": 101, "expected_strikeouts": 6.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.97, "skill_score": 74.0, "opportunity_score": 73.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 15.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2875, "model_under_probability": 0.7125, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5633, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4975, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.531, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.469, "edge_over": -0.2758, "edge_under": 0.215, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.215, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.002, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:56:53.593Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 6.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.97, "skill_score": 74.0, "opportunity_score": 73.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 15.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2875, "model_under_probability": 0.7125, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5203, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4797, "edge_over": -0.2681, "edge_under": 0.2003, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2003, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.002, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Dylan Cease", "pitcher_id": 656302, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:52.407Z", "line": 8.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -111, "expected_strikeouts": 6.97, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.95, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.97, "skill_score": 74.0, "opportunity_score": 73.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.9, "support_tier": "TRIPLE_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Triple Support", "support_note": "Skill, workload, and opponent pressure all support a stronger strikeout environment.", "suppression_score": 15.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "interaction_label": "Premium Runway", "interaction_note": "Support layers and runway all align into the cleanest strikeout pocket.", "trust_modifier": "PREMIUM_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Premium Runway", "trust_note": "Support and leash context align strongly enough to mark the cleanest strikeout trust pocket.", "model_over_probability": 0.2875, "model_under_probability": 0.7125, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5041, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4959, "edge_over": -0.2474, "edge_under": 0.1864, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1864, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.02, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.002, "aggregate_matchup_score": 63.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 37758.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.78, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Noah Cameron", "pitcher_id": 702070, "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:56:49.515Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.02, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.49, "skill_score": 24.9, "opportunity_score": 73.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 41.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 28.9, "suppression_tier": "CLEAR_RUNWAY", "suppression_label": "Clear Runway", "suppression_note": "Workload and leash context support the strikeout projection cleanly.", "interaction_tier": "STRONG_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Strong Alignment", "interaction_note": "The strikeout structure is favorable, but not as clean as the premium runway pocket.", "trust_modifier": "WATCHLIST_RUNWAY", "trust_label": "Watchlist Runway", "trust_note": "The strikeout structure is supportive and worth watching, but it is not as clean as the premium bucket.", "model_over_probability": 0.3045, "model_under_probability": 0.6955, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5246, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4754, "edge_over": -0.2607, "edge_under": 0.1833, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1833, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.47, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.117, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10820.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.42, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.4, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Dobbins", "pitcher_id": 690928, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:57:00.190Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -175, "expected_strikeouts": 3.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 48.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.243, "model_under_probability": 0.757, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6364, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4059, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5941, "edge_over": -0.1918, "edge_under": 0.1206, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1206, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4095.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Dobbins", "pitcher_id": 690928, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:36.858Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": 108, "expected_strikeouts": 3.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 48.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4072, "model_under_probability": 0.5928, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5444, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4556, "edge_over": -0.1673, "edge_under": 0.112, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.112, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4095.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "pitcher_id": 665795, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:36.858Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 130, "under_odds": -165, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 31.5, "opportunity_score": 47.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5422, "model_under_probability": 0.4578, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4348, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4112, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5888, "edge_over": 0.1074, "edge_under": -0.1648, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1074, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23128.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:52.407Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 27.7, "opportunity_score": 49.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 38.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3921, "model_under_probability": 0.6079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5187, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4813, "edge_over": -0.1574, "edge_under": 0.0981, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0981, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "pitcher_id": 665795, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:57:00.190Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 125, "under_odds": -165, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 31.5, "opportunity_score": 47.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5422, "model_under_probability": 0.4578, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4444, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4165, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5835, "edge_over": 0.0978, "edge_under": -0.1648, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0978, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23128.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Dobbins", "pitcher_id": 690928, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CHC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:52.407Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 3.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.15, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.27, "skill_score": 11.6, "opportunity_score": 48.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.2, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 46.0, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4072, "model_under_probability": 0.5928, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5331, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4669, "edge_over": -0.158, "edge_under": 0.0978, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0978, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.12, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.037, "aggregate_matchup_score": 24.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 4095.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 3.68, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryan Woo", "pitcher_id": 693433, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:36.858Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.06, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.06, "skill_score": 27.7, "opportunity_score": 49.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 48.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 38.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3921, "model_under_probability": 0.6079, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5176, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4824, "edge_over": -0.1574, "edge_under": 0.0957, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0957, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.067, "aggregate_matchup_score": 64.8, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24778.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.48, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Edward Cabrera", "pitcher_id": 665795, "team_abbr": "CHC", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:52.407Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -156, "under_odds": 122, "expected_strikeouts": 5.04, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.81, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.04, "skill_score": 31.5, "opportunity_score": 47.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 43.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 54.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.702, "model_under_probability": 0.298, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6094, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.425, "edge_over": 0.0926, "edge_under": -0.1525, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0926, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.23, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.049, "aggregate_matchup_score": 56.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 23128.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.41, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 77.2, "wind_speed_mph": 4.9, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:52.407Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -136, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 28.3, "opportunity_score": 61.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5587, "model_under_probability": 0.4413, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4572, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5428, "edge_over": 0.0733, "edge_under": -0.135, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0733, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:52.407Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -111, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "skill_score": 40.4, "opportunity_score": 48.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 43.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5973, "model_under_probability": 0.4027, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5261, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4959, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5041, "edge_over": 0.0712, "edge_under": -0.1322, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0712, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:56:36.769Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -120, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "skill_score": 12.6, "opportunity_score": 47.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4051, "model_under_probability": 0.5949, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5455, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5101, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4899, "edge_over": -0.1404, "edge_under": 0.0711, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0711, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:56:56.906Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 28.3, "opportunity_score": 61.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5587, "model_under_probability": 0.4413, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": 0.0709, "edge_under": -0.142, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0709, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Tanner Bibee", "pitcher_id": 676440, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:36.858Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -134, "expected_strikeouts": 5.15, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.15, "skill_score": 28.3, "opportunity_score": 61.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.1, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 38.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5587, "model_under_probability": 0.4413, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5726, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.46, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.54, "edge_over": 0.0709, "edge_under": -0.1313, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0709, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.031, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33227.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.4, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.0, "wind_speed_mph": 8.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "pitcher_id": 693821, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:52.407Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -146, "under_odds": 114, "expected_strikeouts": 4.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.26, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "skill_score": 9.9, "opportunity_score": 57.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6619, "model_under_probability": 0.3381, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5595, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4405, "edge_over": 0.0684, "edge_under": -0.1292, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0684, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.91, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:56:53.593Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 120, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 35.1, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.3183, "model_under_probability": 0.6817, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4248, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5752, "edge_over": -0.1362, "edge_under": 0.0663, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0663, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.939, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "pitcher_id": 693821, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:56:36.769Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -150, "under_odds": 110, "expected_strikeouts": 4.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.26, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "skill_score": 9.9, "opportunity_score": 57.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6619, "model_under_probability": 0.3381, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5575, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4425, "edge_over": 0.0619, "edge_under": -0.1381, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0619, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.91, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:52.407Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -142, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 35.1, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4693, "model_under_probability": 0.5307, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5544, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4456, "edge_over": -0.1175, "edge_under": 0.059, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.059, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.939, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:52.407Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -122, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.43, "skill_score": 25.2, "opportunity_score": 27.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.599, "model_under_probability": 0.401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5187, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4813, "edge_over": 0.0495, "edge_under": -0.1088, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0495, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Bryce Elder", "pitcher_id": 693821, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "AZ", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:36.858Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -158, "under_odds": 123, "expected_strikeouts": 4.74, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.26, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.74, "skill_score": 9.9, "opportunity_score": 57.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 39.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.6619, "model_under_probability": 0.3381, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4484, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5773, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4227, "edge_over": 0.0495, "edge_under": -0.1103, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0495, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.52, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.91, "aggregate_matchup_score": 26.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24573.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.17, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:52.407Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "skill_score": 12.6, "opportunity_score": 47.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4051, "model_under_probability": 0.5949, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": -0.1047, "edge_under": 0.0454, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0454, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Weathers", "pitcher_id": 677960, "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:36.858Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -136, "under_odds": 106, "expected_strikeouts": 4.58, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.88, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.58, "skill_score": 35.1, "opportunity_score": 52.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 25.7, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 41.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4693, "model_under_probability": 0.5307, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5763, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5428, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4572, "edge_over": -0.107, "edge_under": 0.0453, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0453, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.3, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.939, "aggregate_matchup_score": 32.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11703.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.22, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 75.6, "wind_speed_mph": 9.6, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "pitcher_id": 663623, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:56:32.991Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -140, "expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "skill_score": 28.0, "opportunity_score": 16.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 92.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3721, "model_under_probability": 0.6279, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4554, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5446, "edge_over": -0.1157, "edge_under": 0.0446, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0446, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33345.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:56:29.822Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.43, "skill_score": 25.2, "opportunity_score": 27.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.599, "model_under_probability": 0.401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5203, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4797, "edge_over": 0.0434, "edge_under": -0.1112, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0434, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Hunter Brown", "pitcher_id": 686613, "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:36.858Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -103, "expected_strikeouts": 6.52, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.46, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.52, "skill_score": 40.4, "opportunity_score": 48.5, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.2, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 43.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5973, "model_under_probability": 0.4027, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5074, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5227, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4773, "edge_over": 0.0417, "edge_under": -0.1047, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0417, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.06, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.009, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.5, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 34054.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.39, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 78.8, "wind_speed_mph": 5.5, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Nick Lodolo", "pitcher_id": 666157, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "MIA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:36.858Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 101, "expected_strikeouts": 5.43, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.19, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.43, "skill_score": 25.2, "opportunity_score": 27.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.1, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 73.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.599, "model_under_probability": 0.401, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4975, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4665, "edge_over": 0.03, "edge_under": -0.0965, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.03, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.24, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.047, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 21650.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.74, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 89.1, "wind_speed_mph": 5.2, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael Soroka", "pitcher_id": 647336, "team_abbr": "AZ", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:36.858Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 106, "under_odds": -133, "expected_strikeouts": 4.2, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.29, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.2, "skill_score": 12.6, "opportunity_score": 47.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 29.5, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 51.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4051, "model_under_probability": 0.5949, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4854, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5708, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4596, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5404, "edge_over": -0.0803, "edge_under": 0.0241, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0241, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.989, "aggregate_matchup_score": 27.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11610.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.37, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 95.9, "wind_speed_mph": 5.6, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "pitcher_id": 663623, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:36.858Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 124, "under_odds": -158, "expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "skill_score": 28.0, "opportunity_score": 16.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 92.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3721, "model_under_probability": 0.6279, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4464, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6124, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4216, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5784, "edge_over": -0.0743, "edge_under": 0.0155, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0155, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33345.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "pitcher_id": 682052, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:56:40.421Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -115, "under_odds": -115, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 38.8, "opportunity_score": 41.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 65.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5346, "model_under_probability": 0.4654, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5349, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5, "edge_over": -0.0003, "edge_under": -0.0695, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0003, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.085, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jake Irvin", "pitcher_id": 663623, "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "NYM", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:52.407Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 134, "under_odds": -172, "expected_strikeouts": 4.01, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.92, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.01, "skill_score": 28.0, "opportunity_score": 16.1, "opponent_weakness_score": 34.0, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 92.4, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3721, "model_under_probability": 0.6279, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4274, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6324, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4033, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5967, "edge_over": -0.0553, "edge_under": -0.0045, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0045, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.023, "aggregate_matchup_score": 20.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33345.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.45, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 80.1, "wind_speed_mph": 14.9, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:36.858Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 117, "under_odds": -149, "expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "skill_score": 43.2, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 46.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4527, "model_under_probability": 0.5473, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4608, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5984, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.435, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.565, "edge_over": -0.0081, "edge_under": -0.0511, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0081, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 12.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:52.407Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 116, "under_odds": -148, "expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "skill_score": 43.2, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 46.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4527, "model_under_probability": 0.5473, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.463, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5968, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4369, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5631, "edge_over": -0.0103, "edge_under": -0.0495, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0103, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 12.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Trevor Rogers", "pitcher_id": 669432, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:56:05.916Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 4.48, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.35, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.48, "skill_score": 43.2, "opportunity_score": 54.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 37.4, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPORTUNITY", "support_label": "Strong Opportunity", "support_note": "Workload and batters-faced path are doing most of the support work.", "suppression_score": 46.7, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4527, "model_under_probability": 0.5473, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4335, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5665, "edge_over": -0.0124, "edge_under": -0.0605, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0124, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.13, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.03, "aggregate_matchup_score": 46.0, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 18097.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.76, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 86.0, "wind_speed_mph": 12.4, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "pitcher_id": 682052, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:52.407Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 38.8, "opportunity_score": 41.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 65.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5346, "model_under_probability": 0.4654, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5372, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4628, "edge_over": -0.0344, "edge_under": -0.0248, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0248, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.085, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob Lopez", "pitcher_id": 682052, "team_abbr": "ATH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-16T11:55:36.858Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -132, "under_odds": 103, "expected_strikeouts": 4.99, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.99, "skill_score": 38.8, "opportunity_score": 41.7, "opponent_weakness_score": 45.9, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 65.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5346, "model_under_probability": 0.4654, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.569, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4926, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.536, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.464, "edge_over": -0.0344, "edge_under": -0.0272, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0272, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.39, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.085, "aggregate_matchup_score": 57.4, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 7962.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.63, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 81.0, "wind_speed_mph": 7.1, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Painter", "team_abbr": "PHI", "opponent_abbr": "MIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Blade Tidwell", "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "COL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Christian Scott", "team_abbr": "NYM", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cody Bradford", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cody Bradford", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Cody Bradford", "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Drew Anderson", "team_abbr": "DET", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gabriel Hughes", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gabriel Hughes", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gabriel Hughes", "team_abbr": "COL", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Henderson", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Henderson", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Logan Henderson", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "LAD", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Patrick Sandoval", "team_abbr": "BOS", "opponent_abbr": "PIT", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Paul Skenes", "team_abbr": "PIT", "opponent_abbr": "BOS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ryan Johnson", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }