{ "date": "2026-08-20", "generated_at": "2026-08-20T23:59:15.814951", "artifact_type": "strikeout_edges", "market_type": "pitcher_strikeouts", "model_version": "strikeout_edges_v1_overlay", "projection_model_version": "strikeout_props_v2_calibrated_ladder", "projection_date": "2026-08-20", "sportsbook_input_summary": { "input_type": "canonical_processed_sportsbook_input", "source_count": 1, "row_count": 54, "matched_count": 27, "unmatched_count": 27 }, "assumptions": { "methodology": "Sportsbook strikeout lines are matched against the saved Mithrandir strikeout props artifact. Model over, under, and push probabilities are derived from the existing matchup-adjusted strikeout distribution. Raw implied probabilities are calculated directly from American odds, and optional no-vig implied probabilities are computed by renormalizing both sides when both odds are present.", "distribution": { "name": "negative_binomial_style", "alpha": 0.0619, "whole_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= line + 1), Under = P(K <= line - 1), Push = P(K = line).", "half_line_handling": "Over = P(K >= ceil(line)), Under = 1 - Over, Push = 0." }, "recommendation_thresholds": { "no_play_edge_threshold": 0.015, "lean_edge_threshold": 0.03, "strong_edge_threshold": 0.05 } }, "summary": { "raw_row_count": 27, "grouped_pitcher_count": 9, "sportsbook_count": 3 }, "edge_count": 27, "edges": [ { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:57:54.828Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -106, "under_odds": -121, "expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "skill_score": 84.2, "opportunity_score": 61.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 30.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2446, "model_under_probability": 0.7554, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5146, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5475, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4845, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5155, "edge_over": -0.27, "edge_under": 0.2079, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.2079, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.961, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 13.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:58:45.116Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -135, "under_odds": -110, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 4.9, "opportunity_score": 38.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.281, "model_under_probability": 0.719, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5231, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4769, "edge_over": -0.2935, "edge_under": 0.1952, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1952, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:58:06.519Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -108, "under_odds": -118, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 4.9, "opportunity_score": 38.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.281, "model_under_probability": 0.719, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5192, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5413, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4896, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5104, "edge_over": -0.2382, "edge_under": 0.1777, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1777, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Michael McGreevy", "pitcher_id": 700241, "team_abbr": "STL", "opponent_abbr": "CIN", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:57:54.828Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -104, "under_odds": -122, "expected_strikeouts": 3.49, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 3.16, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 3.49, "skill_score": 4.9, "opportunity_score": 38.9, "opponent_weakness_score": 35.7, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 55.8, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.281, "model_under_probability": 0.719, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4813, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5187, "edge_over": -0.2288, "edge_under": 0.1695, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1695, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.33, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.105, "aggregate_matchup_score": 33.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 8017.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.59, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:58:06.519Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 114, "under_odds": -146, "expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "skill_score": 84.2, "opportunity_score": 61.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 30.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2446, "model_under_probability": 0.7554, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4673, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5935, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4405, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5595, "edge_over": -0.2227, "edge_under": 0.1619, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.1619, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.961, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 13.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Gavin Williams", "pitcher_id": 668909, "team_abbr": "CLE", "opponent_abbr": "SF", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:58:42.419Z", "line": 7.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 5.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.93, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.75, "skill_score": 84.2, "opportunity_score": 61.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 33.7, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 30.9, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.2446, "model_under_probability": 0.7554, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4362, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5638, "edge_over": -0.2316, "edge_under": 0.14, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.14, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.18, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.961, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 24255.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.23, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 13.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "pitcher_id": 669456, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:57:54.828Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -123, "under_odds": -104, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 0.6, "opportunity_score": 34.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6633, "model_under_probability": 0.3367, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5516, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5098, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5197, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4803, "edge_over": 0.1117, "edge_under": -0.1731, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1117, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "pitcher_id": 669456, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:58:06.519Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -125, "under_odds": -102, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 0.6, "opportunity_score": 34.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6633, "model_under_probability": 0.3367, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5556, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.505, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5239, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4761, "edge_over": 0.1077, "edge_under": -0.1683, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.1077, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:57:54.828Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 111, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 47.1, "opportunity_score": 30.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 89.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3248, "model_under_probability": 0.6752, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4739, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4468, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5532, "edge_over": -0.1491, "edge_under": 0.0884, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0884, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 93.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:58:06.519Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 47.1, "opportunity_score": 30.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 89.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3248, "model_under_probability": 0.6752, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5544, "edge_over": -0.1469, "edge_under": 0.0884, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0884, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 93.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Shane Bieber", "pitcher_id": 669456, "team_abbr": "TOR", "opponent_abbr": "TB", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:58:08.375Z", "line": 3.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -140, "under_odds": -105, "expected_strikeouts": 4.75, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.59, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.75, "skill_score": 0.6, "opportunity_score": 34.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.3, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 68.5, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.6633, "model_under_probability": 0.3367, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5833, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5122, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5325, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4675, "edge_over": 0.08, "edge_under": -0.1755, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.08, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.16, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.034, "aggregate_matchup_score": 52.7, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 9751.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.01, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 89.4, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Jacob deGrom", "pitcher_id": 594798, "team_abbr": "TEX", "opponent_abbr": "WSH", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:58:52.635Z", "line": 6.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 105, "under_odds": -155, "expected_strikeouts": 5.51, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.6, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.51, "skill_score": 47.1, "opportunity_score": 30.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.4, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 89.1, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.3248, "model_under_probability": 0.6752, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4878, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6078, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4452, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5548, "edge_over": -0.163, "edge_under": 0.0674, "recommended_side": "Under", "recommended_edge": 0.0674, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": -0.09, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.993, "aggregate_matchup_score": 65.1, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 15111.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.3, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 93.9, "wind_speed_mph": 7.8, "wind_direction": "out", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:57:54.828Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 123, "under_odds": -157, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 21.2, "opportunity_score": 24.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 74.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5112, "model_under_probability": 0.4888, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4484, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6109, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4233, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5767, "edge_over": 0.0628, "edge_under": -0.1221, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0628, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:58:06.519Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 112, "under_odds": -142, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 20.9, "opportunity_score": 59.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 37.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5269, "model_under_probability": 0.4731, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5868, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4456, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5544, "edge_over": 0.0552, "edge_under": -0.1137, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0552, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:58:06.519Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 21.2, "opportunity_score": 24.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 74.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5112, "model_under_probability": 0.4888, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": 0.0525, "edge_under": -0.1112, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0525, "play_tier": "Strong", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:57:54.828Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 108, "under_odds": -137, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 20.9, "opportunity_score": 59.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 37.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5269, "model_under_probability": 0.4731, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5781, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4541, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5459, "edge_over": 0.0461, "edge_under": -0.105, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0461, "play_tier": "Play", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:58:06.519Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -130, "under_odds": 102, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 15.8, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5835, "model_under_probability": 0.4165, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5652, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.495, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5331, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4669, "edge_over": 0.0183, "edge_under": -0.0785, "recommended_side": "Over", "recommended_edge": 0.0183, "play_tier": "Lean", "no_play_reason": null, "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:57:54.828Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -133, "under_odds": 104, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 15.8, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5835, "model_under_probability": 0.4165, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5708, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4902, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.538, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.462, "edge_over": 0.0127, "edge_under": -0.0737, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0127, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Grant Holmes", "pitcher_id": 656550, "team_abbr": "ATL", "opponent_abbr": "CWS", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:58:39.471Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 100, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.84, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.63, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.84, "skill_score": 21.2, "opportunity_score": 24.8, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.5, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 74.6, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5112, "model_under_probability": 0.4888, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4545, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5455, "edge_over": 0.0112, "edge_under": -0.1112, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0112, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.21, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.046, "aggregate_matchup_score": 55.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 11879.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.18, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 72.0, "wind_speed_mph": 6.5, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Brady Singer", "pitcher_id": 663903, "team_abbr": "CIN", "opponent_abbr": "STL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:58:45.116Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -110, "under_odds": -135, "expected_strikeouts": 4.94, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.62, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.94, "skill_score": 20.9, "opportunity_score": 59.0, "opponent_weakness_score": 44.0, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 37.6, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.5269, "model_under_probability": 0.4731, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5238, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5745, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4769, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5231, "edge_over": 0.0031, "edge_under": -0.1014, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": 0.0031, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.32, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.069, "aggregate_matchup_score": 53.2, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 33950.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.49, "environment_summary": "hitter-friendly", "temperature_f": 79.3, "wind_speed_mph": 4.7, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "pitcher_id": 694738, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:57:54.828Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 117, "under_odds": -149, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 18.5, "opportunity_score": 49.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4171, "model_under_probability": 0.5829, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4608, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5984, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.435, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.565, "edge_over": -0.0437, "edge_under": -0.0155, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0155, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 13.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "pitcher_id": 694738, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:58:06.519Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 118, "under_odds": -150, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 18.5, "opportunity_score": 49.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4171, "model_under_probability": 0.5829, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4587, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4333, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5667, "edge_over": -0.0416, "edge_under": -0.0171, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0171, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, 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is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5589, "model_under_probability": 0.4411, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5798, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4808, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5467, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4533, "edge_over": -0.0209, "edge_under": -0.0397, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0209, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:57:54.828Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -144, "under_odds": 112, "expected_strikeouts": 6.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.22, "skill_score": 8.0, "opportunity_score": 38.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5589, "model_under_probability": 0.4411, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5902, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.4717, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.5558, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.4442, "edge_over": -0.0313, "edge_under": -0.0306, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0306, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Landen Roupp", "pitcher_id": 694738, "team_abbr": "SF", "opponent_abbr": "CLE", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:58:42.419Z", "line": 4.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 110, "under_odds": -160, "expected_strikeouts": 4.27, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 4.27, "skill_score": 18.5, "opportunity_score": 49.4, "opponent_weakness_score": 32.6, "support_tier": "WEAK_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Weak Support", "support_note": "The strikeout support stack is lighter across skill, workload, and opponent context.", "suppression_score": 48.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4171, "model_under_probability": 0.5829, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4762, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6154, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4362, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5638, "edge_over": -0.0591, "edge_under": -0.0325, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0325, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.0, "adjustment_multiplier": 0.991, "aggregate_matchup_score": 44.6, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 10559.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 4.21, "environment_summary": "pitcher-friendly", "temperature_f": 78.6, "wind_speed_mph": 13.8, "wind_direction": "in", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "Kyle Bradish", "pitcher_id": 680694, "team_abbr": "BAL", "opponent_abbr": "NYY", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:59:19.562Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": -145, "under_odds": 100, "expected_strikeouts": 6.22, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 6.07, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 6.22, "skill_score": 8.0, "opportunity_score": 38.3, "opponent_weakness_score": 42.6, "support_tier": "STRONG_OPPONENT", "support_label": "Strong Opponent", "support_note": "Opponent strikeout pressure is the clearest support input.", "suppression_score": 58.8, "suppression_tier": "HEAVY_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Heavy Suppression", "suppression_note": "Leash or workload context materially weakens the strikeout conversion path.", "interaction_tier": "SUPPRESSED_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Suppressed Alignment", "interaction_note": "Runway drag or weak alignment materially softens the strikeout path.", "trust_modifier": "SUPPRESSED", "trust_label": "Suppressed", "trust_note": "Leash or alignment drag is materially weakening the strikeout trust case.", "model_over_probability": 0.5589, "model_under_probability": 0.4411, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.5918, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.5, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.542, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.458, "edge_over": -0.0329, "edge_under": -0.0589, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0329, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.15, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.024, "aggregate_matchup_score": 61.9, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 13080.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 6.32, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.7, "wind_speed_mph": 2.1, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" }, { "pitcher_name": "George Kirby", "pitcher_id": 669923, "team_abbr": "SEA", "opponent_abbr": "MIL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "source_provider": "sportsgameodds", "timestamp": "2026-08-20T11:58:39.215Z", "line": 5.5, "line_type": "half", "over_odds": 115, "under_odds": -165, "expected_strikeouts": 5.32, "baseline_projected_strikeouts": 5.28, "adjusted_projected_strikeouts": 5.32, "skill_score": 15.8, "opportunity_score": 53.2, "opponent_weakness_score": 40.2, "support_tier": "DUAL_SUPPORT", "support_label": "Dual Support", "support_note": "Two of the three strikeout support layers align cleanly.", "suppression_score": 48.3, "suppression_tier": "MILD_SUPPRESSION", "suppression_label": "Mild Suppression", "suppression_note": "Some workload drag is present, but the strikeout path remains mostly intact.", "interaction_tier": "NEUTRAL_ALIGNMENT", "interaction_label": "Neutral Alignment", "interaction_note": "The signal stack is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "trust_modifier": "NEUTRAL", "trust_label": "Neutral", "trust_note": "The strikeout trust picture is mixed and better used as context than conviction.", "model_over_probability": 0.4315, "model_under_probability": 0.5685, "model_push_probability": 0.0, "implied_over_probability_raw": 0.4651, "implied_under_probability_raw": 0.6226, "implied_over_probability_novig": 0.4276, "implied_under_probability_novig": 0.5724, "edge_over": -0.0336, "edge_under": -0.0541, "recommended_side": "No Play", "recommended_edge": -0.0336, "play_tier": "No Play", "no_play_reason": "Best edge did not clear the minimum play threshold.", "adjustment_delta": 0.04, "adjustment_multiplier": 1.008, "aggregate_matchup_score": 60.3, "lineup_confidence": "projected", "pitch_mix_sample_size": 30773.0, "lineup_expected_strikeouts": 5.27, "environment_summary": "neutral", "temperature_f": 74.5, "wind_speed_mph": 7.3, "wind_direction": "cross", "starter_confidence": "probable", "projection_model_version": "negative_binomial_style", "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json" } ], "unmatched_inputs": [ { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Andrew Alvarez", "team_abbr": "WSH", "opponent_abbr": "TEX", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Anthony Kay", "team_abbr": "CWS", "opponent_abbr": "ATL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gage Jump", "team_abbr": "OAK", "opponent_abbr": "KC", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Gerrit Cole", "team_abbr": "NYY", "opponent_abbr": "BAL", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 6.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Grayson Rodriguez", "team_abbr": "LAA", "opponent_abbr": "HOU", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 4.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Ian Seymour", "team_abbr": "TB", "opponent_abbr": "TOR", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Peter Lambert", "team_abbr": "HOU", "opponent_abbr": "LAA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Randy Dobnak", "team_abbr": "KC", "opponent_abbr": "OAK", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 3.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "BetMGM", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "DraftKings", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." }, { "pitcher_name": "Robert Gasser", "team_abbr": "MIL", "opponent_abbr": "SEA", "sportsbook": "FanDuel", "line": 5.5, "source_file": "canonical_all_providers.json", "reason": "No matching Mithrandir strikeout props row was found." } ] }